What do we know about Carolina?

[hoxrox]

I've pretty much given up trying to draw conclusions from an upcoming opponent's performance this year, since we repeatedly get burned.

The narrative is always something like, "well, the Rams run defense is terrible so we'll be able to gash them," and then our backs net 65 yards for 2.95 YPC.

Or it's "We have the #1 rush D so I'm not worried," then Dallas drops 162 (4.4 YPC) yards on us, with Randle averaging 10.2 on 5 carries.

Or "our ST is our rock right now," then we give up 200+ yards on ST against STL.

Don't get me wrong, I wish none of that had happened, and it's not all bad anyway. But the narratives this season line up with what actually happens so little, it's not even worth predicting.

Teams are going to be bringing their A game every week against the defending champs.

Look for Carolina to have an extra bit of motivation this Sunday.

 

[Hasselbeck]

Their running game is in shambles. Their defense has taken a big hit because of the Hardy loss and just general regression as a whole.

Cam and Benjamin are studs though and could definitely have nice games against our MASH unit defense. The game honestly could turn into a shootout if the 2nd half Seahawks-Rams offense shows up.

 

[aawolf]

For starters, Ray Rice delivered a haymaker (pun intended) to the Carolina Panthers. Hardy was only put on the inactive list after the video came out, and his loss is a huge one. His backups were somewhat effective against the Bears and Lions because they abandoned the run game. He truly is a difference maker in the pass AND run game, and is currently making 700K a game while sitting on his couch, taking up 13.1 mil of the cap. Without him, teams can pay more attention to Johnson and Lotulelei and there is an obvious trickle down effect. Kawann Short has been the best DL, but even he has either mildly disappointed in spurts or has gotten fewer reps than his often stellar play has justified. DE Frank Alexander was also going to provide a least some spark but is yet another example of how stupid these young athletes can be, notching another drug suspension. Johnson and Davis have had nagging injuries as well, and while no one knows who Josh Norman and Bene Benwikere are, their losses are big ones as well to a secondary full of second tier or has been players that are slightly worse than last year's second tier or has been players.

Jimbo Fisher said Benjamin would have been a top 3 pick if he stayed an extra year and he's right. Olsen is a solid player but not a game breaker and the OL had 4 of 5 players last week that were UDFA. Awful would be too kind. The RBs have predictably been a MASH unit although Washington native Jonathan Stewart has shown his usual flashes in the rare times he's healthy, as he appears to be this week. Which brings us to Cam. The OP is right, with a new WR corps, no OL, and multiple injuries, not enough has been said about how impressive he has been this year.

Although Rice connected flush on the Panthers season that already came into the year filled with all the experts doubting them, the awful division keeps them from being out for the count. Cam's play at least has them on one leg, and Hardy's (and to a lesser degree Tolbert, Williams, Benwikere, and Norman) eventual return may make them dangerous in January in a best albeit glass half full scenario.

As for Sunday's game, if I was a betting man I wouldn't touch it with a 10 foot pole.

Good stuff. As a North Carolina resident and native, I concur with this analysis. The bright spots for the Panthers are that their O-Line, while gawd-awful, are not as bad as I thought they would be--they've not been as bad as the Seahawks from what I can see. The receivers, including Benjamin and Cotchery, have been pleasant surprises for the Panthers as well. Cam has carried this team, but he doesn't break off and run for as much yardage as he used to before his foot surgery this off-season and his busted ribs (in other words, he's no longer the best third-down option for the Panthers). He's become a much better passer. But, the missing of Hardy, the craptastic secondary, and the reliance of fourth and fifth string Running Backs from the most expensive backfield in the NFL have caused the Panthers to look terrible most of the time. Kuechly looks all-world one minute, and then gets gashed for a big run the next. He's a stat monster, but he's relied on too much in run defense, and teams have had success running against this defense.

 

[hawkfan68]

The past two years (regular season games)...the defense for both teams has reigned. The winning team hasn't put more than 16 points. I have feeling that this year, that's not going to be the case. Both teams may well score into the 20s at least.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

Carolina has a pass rush more than twice as effective as the Rams, meaning it's a below average pass rush. In other words, Wilson will be running for his life and the Carolina front will look like All Stars.

The Panthers, meanwhile, get average pass protection from their oline, meaning unless Pete fixes our pass rush, we should probably bring some pressure on them, but probably not a lot of sacks. Newton is too mobile and I suspect our pass rush will have a hard time getting to him.

Their run game, however, is the suck. That's technical jargon for they really block poorly and have no running backs. Seattle should be able to effectively make them a one dimensional team. When you do that, then the pass rush will only improve.

Cam Newton alone cannot beat the LOB.

Defensively, Carolina is one of the worst teams in the league. So was St. Louis, but it wasn't their defense that screwed us, it was their special teams and our oline. Our oline will continue to screw us, making Carolina's d look better than it is. But Wilson, Lynch and Baldwin should be able to overcome. Especially considering that Carolina is 29th vs the run. At least St. Louis was 12th vs the run, they could get that right. Carolina will get steam rolled by Lynch on Sunday.

 

[idahohawk]

This

I've pretty much given up trying to draw conclusions from an upcoming opponent's performance this year, since we repeatedly get burned.

The narrative is always something like, "well, the Rams run defense is terrible so we'll be able to gash them," and then our backs net 65 yards for 2.95 YPC.

Or it's "We have the #1 rush D so I'm not worried," then Dallas drops 162 (4.4 YPC) yards on us, with Randle averaging 10.2 on 5 carries.

Or "our ST is our rock right now," then we give up 200+ yards on ST against STL.

Don't get me wrong, I wish none of that had happened, and it's not all bad anyway. But the narratives this season line up with what actually happens so little, it's not even worth predicting.

 

[googoodan]

Olsen is having a monster year for them - it will be key to shut him down. Yeah the implosion of that defense is interesting, would love to hear from a Carolina fan about what has gone wrong.

I realize ctrcat has already taken a stab at this.
-Hardy wasn't the best DE at any one thing, but he could do all things very well - rush the passer, disrupt the run game, play inside to disrupt interior OL, etc. His loss is huge. Our other DEs are pure pass rushers. Charles Johnson is respectable against the run, but opponents won't gameplan against him.

-Our best Defensive Lineman is Kawann Short (who?). He is very disruptive when he can play as a 3-tech, but I don't know what it is, conditioning issues maybe, but he gets pretty limited snaps. Star is beastly but he seems to having some sophomore slump issues. Colin Cole seems to be on the field a lot. I can't figure out why.

-Our defensive backfield last season wasn't able to cover very well, but they had speed. Our defensive backfield this season can't cover very well, but they are slow as molasses. That is the biggest difference with our defense. Our front 7 is deep enough to where the drop off wouldn't be horrible if we had any type of speed back there. We have none.

-The linebackers... well Thomas Davis has been off for several weeks. He may have some lingering injuries, but it's obvious that he isn't the Thomas Davis of old. Thomas needs Luke and Luke needs Thomas. Luke will get his tackles, but TBH most this season are tackles that other players should have made. He isn't dominating the way he has in the past. For the most part, he is playing clean up.

Much of our low defensive numbers last season can be accredited to our slow, ball control offense. It isn't there this year. The OL can provide pass protection every once in a while. But they still haven't opened up any holes in the run game. We can't run... our WRs aren't burners... it leads to a whole lot of 3 & outs.


eta:
I also wanted to add that, by default, there will be noticeable improvement in the secondary this week. Charles Godfrey was released. He was so bad that just leaving the position unfilled would be an improvement. Throw his way on third down = guaranteed conversion. Even if the ball slipped through the WR's hands, it would then bounce off Godfrey's chest back to the WR. He was that bad.

 

[pehawk]

Good stuff googoo, thank you.

 

[HuskerHawk]

Seen a decent amount of Carolina this year. Regarding Cam, I think he's still suffering from an injury (ankle?) and looks MUCH less dangerous running. If he gets a head of steam he'll be tough to bring down, but his quickness and mobility in the pocket is very poor. Somewhat related, his footwork has caused him to be pretty inaccurate at times. Benjamin can makes plays out of nothing, and Olson will be a tough matchup.

 

[Boiler]

-Our best Defensive Lineman is Kawann Short (who?). He is very disruptive when he can play as a 3-tech, but I don't know what it is, conditioning issues maybe, but he gets pretty limited snaps. Star is beastly but he seems to having some sophomore slump issues. Colin Cole seems to be on the field a lot. I can't figure out why.

Glad to hear that about Short. He was a bright spot on some bad Boilermaker teams when he was at Purdue.

 

[idahohawk]

Thanks for the analysis. For me however, after the last 2 weeks, none of this gives me any more confidence.

Olsen is having a monster year for them - it will be key to shut him down. Yeah the implosion of that defense is interesting, would love to hear from a Carolina fan about what has gone wrong.

I realize ctrcat has already taken a stab at this.
-Hardy wasn't the best DE at any one thing, but he could do all things very well - rush the passer, disrupt the run game, play inside to disrupt interior OL, etc. His loss is huge. Our other DEs are pure pass rushers. Charles Johnson is respectable against the run, but opponents won't gameplan against him.

-Our best Defensive Lineman is Kawann Short (who?). He is very disruptive when he can play as a 3-tech, but I don't know what it is, conditioning issues maybe, but he gets pretty limited snaps. Star is beastly but he seems to having some sophomore slump issues. Colin Cole seems to be on the field a lot. I can't figure out why.

-Our defensive backfield last season wasn't able to cover very well, but they had speed. Our defensive backfield this season can't cover very well, but they are slow as molasses. That is the biggest difference with our defense. Our front 7 is deep enough to where the drop off wouldn't be horrible if we had any type of speed back there. We have none.

-The linebackers... well Thomas Davis has been off for several weeks. He may have some lingering injuries, but it's obvious that he isn't the Thomas Davis of old. Thomas needs Luke and Luke needs Thomas. Luke will get his tackles, but TBH most this season are tackles that other players should have made. He isn't dominating the way he has in the past. For the most part, he is playing clean up.

Much of our low defensive numbers last season can be accredited to our slow, ball control offense. It isn't there this year. The OL can provide pass protection every once in a while. But they still haven't opened up any holes in the run game. We can't run... our WRs aren't burners... it leads to a whole lot of 3 & outs.


eta:
I also wanted to add that, by default, there will be noticeable improvement in the secondary this week. Charles Godfrey was released. He was so bad that just leaving the position unfilled would be an improvement. Throw his way on third down = guaranteed conversion. Even if the ball slipped through the WR's hands, it would then bounce off Godfrey's chest back to the WR. He was that bad.

 

[rjdriver]

-Our best Defensive Lineman is Kawann Short (who?). He is very disruptive when he can play as a 3-tech, but I don't know what it is, conditioning issues maybe, but he gets pretty limited snaps. Star is beastly but he seems to having some sophomore slump issues. Colin Cole seems to be on the field a lot. I can't figure out why.

Glad to hear that about Short. He was a bright spot on some bad Boilermaker teams when he was at Purdue.

Star had a monster game against us last year IIRC, and I wouldn't worry too much about him. My biggest fear is that he comes out of that slump against our struggling and injured O'line.

Great getting some insider information from you guys. Good Luck !

 

[ZagHawk]

All I know is despite their woes, they're a better team than the Rams. So Hawks better bring their A-Game if we want to beat them on the road...for the third time in a row.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

We know they were an easier opponent two weeks ago when Cam was gimpy than they are now, and they just got boat raced by GB, so they're looking at this as just as much of a must win game as we do.

 

[ctrcat]

We know they were an easier opponent two weeks ago when Cam was gimpy than they are now, and they just got boat raced by GB, so they're looking at this as just as much of a must win game as we do.

While you're likely right regarding how they are looking at this game, the fact is that, amazingly, it's simply not a must win for the Panthers due to the incredibly weak division which they currently have a 1.5 game lead. One week from tonight, on TNF, against the Saints, in CLT, is.

 

[Tokadub]

I'll have a better idea about Carolina after I watch some of their games in condensed format in the next day or two.

One stat I did just see listed in the ESPN Power Rankings is that their defense has allowed 24 Touchdowns this season which is the most in the league (3.43 touchdowns per game).

They are also 22nd in opposing passing yards (250.7) and 26th in opposing rushing yards (137.6) which totals 387.6 yards per game TERRIBLE!

One thing that concerns me is that they have 15 sacks this year compared to the Seahawks with 7. Even though that's only tied for 16th in total sacks... if the Panthers are averaging over 2 sacks per game then that's pretty much a guaranteed 3-4 sacks against Seahawks :shock:

Cam Newton has been having a decent year though 8 Touchdowns and 3 Interceptions, 60% completion rate. Newton has been sacked 14 times which is equal to Russell Wilson.

So we may need to rely on our Offense to win the game which they should be able to put up 20+ easily on the Panthers. If our Pass Rush and defense can step up at all I think we got this one.

 

[brimsalabim]

I was in Charlotte for business until this morning. The local radio expects their backs to be back but still banged up. Like Wilson, Newton is capable of rushing for 100 yards when he needs too. The rookie receiver Benjamin and their Tight End Olson can both make big plays for them. On defense Luke Keuechly is still the man but with out Greg Hardy their pass rush has been no where near as brutal. They have more of an inside power rush though so how our offensive line fairs is any one guess. Will Unger make it back?

...and fwiw the prevailing thought in the panther locker room is that Cam Newton is in fact black enough.. :roll:

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Him being black enough, that's key for them. :shock:

 

[Largent80]

Well check this out about their O-Line......Well ... it hasn't been great. Newton was sacked three times last week and pressured several others. Center Ryan Kalil is the only dependable guy along the line, and it's taken a few games for even the four-time Pro Bowler to come into his own. The line is really banged up, and Sunday they'll start four guys who went undrafted out of college. Don't know if you need anything more illustrative than that.

http://mynorthwest.com/292/2630533/Hend ... s-Panthers