If Sportrac is correct (they now have yearly numbers up), here are his yearly cap hits:
[
2020 - $5.35 million
2021 - $24.8 million
2022 - $31.45 million
2023 - $42.45 million
2024 - $39.95 million
2025 - $41.95 million
2026 - $41.95 million
2027 - $59.95 million
2028 - $44.45 million
2029 - $44.95 million
2030 - $50.45 million
2031 - $52.45 million
Your eyes will probably roll to that nearly $60 million cap hit in 2027. And you may be thinking "man they're screwed if he gets hurt or somehow just goes to hell performance-wise", but check out what they did with the dead cap money:
2020 - $64.95 million
2021 - $59.61 million
2022 - $34.90 million
2023 - $4.00 million
2024 - $2.00 million
2025 through 2031 - $0.00
Worst case scenario for KC in the near term is if Mahomes just sucks or gets hurt is this is a one-year extension on the last two years of his rookie contract, and they lose $4 mil in dead cap space in 2023 cutting him.
$141.48 million is guaranteed.
Those cap hits from 2023 on (particularly 2027 on) get pretty heavy by then but if they don't think he's worth the money they'll try to restructure, knowing they can cut him for no penalty if they have to. They're also betting on the cap going up enough by then that if he's still playing at a high level.
It's a lot of cap space, but it's not a real long-term commitment, and the team has options going forward. Plus that possible cap space increase.
