Wilson might be on the cusp of a MONSTER season

[joeseahawks]

Is there a document that says that MVPs must have xyz passer ratings in abc numbers of games?
Cam has lots of other numbers that play in his favor: # of touchdowns, Rushing yards, his ability to extend drives with runs for first downs, ... etc.
Cam (and Russ) are not the traditional QBs. So, simply comparing their "traditional " numbers with other QBs is very short sighted. People need to consider the whole body of work.

To me the thing with Cam is consistency. This year he had 7 games where he had less than a 80 passer rating. For an MVP of the league this year that is a JOKE IMO. Wilson only had 1 game lower than 80. That is almost half of his starts in the regular season he was toward the bottom of the league. On the other hand he had 8 games that were above a 100 passer rating. Wilson had 8 as well.

And that's the difference between OL-dependent quarterbacks and...the other guys. When you're a Newton, a Dalton, a Drew Brees, or a Tony Romo, your fortunes go up and down by how well the defense is breaching your protection. When you're a Brady, pre-Denver Peyton, a Roethlisberger, or a Russell Wilson, you're able to find a way around even bad protection.

 

[djb28]

The kid is not even in his prime yet and has been to TWO Bowls! Just wait until we get a line to protect this Golden Child!

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

I really think JS will address the OL in a big way in the offseason. History dictates that this front office identifies the biggest need and attacks it. Following the 2012 loss, they brought in Avril and Bennett to shore up an invisible pass rush in Atlanta .. Following the XLIX loss.. they go get Jimmy Graham to bolster the red zone attack and give Russ a viable weapon in the pass game (something that was really starting to take off then the injury happened)

Following this years playoff loss? I think you're going to see us add 1-2 veterans in FA/trade (really want to say trade is more likely just to go with the compensatory draft pick reload the franchise does every year now) and draft someone early to fill Russell Okung's spot (again circling back to the compensatory pick thing)

If we do indeed shore up the OL, I agree with kearly in that Russ can have a monster 2016.

But that's the only way I can really feel good about him improving even further on an incredible 2015.

Pete did say at his presser the other day that they definitely needed to up the competition level for the o-line so I believe you may well be correct in saying trade FA and the draft.

 

[thegreeninyoureye]

The kid is not even in his prime yet and has been to TWO Bowls! Just wait until we get a line to protect this Golden Child!

That's what I say he is just going to get better and better hes still young.

 

[dogorama]

I think we all thought that our offense was going to be great going into THIS season. No O-line, no season, it's just that simple.

 

[Rob12]

Offense has moved towards Russell Wilson. We had a generational back in Marshawn, and could ease our young QB along. But now Marshawn is pretty much done and this offense is now Wilson's. I expect the FO to pump huge resources into the offensive line.

I don't think you can really extrapolate Wilson's numbers like that. He was on a historical streak. But he can be a Brees in his prime type of talent, with less picks. And holy ****, would that be awesome.

 

[HawKnPeppa]

Offense has moved towards Russell Wilson. We had a generational back in Marshawn, and could ease our young QB along. But now Marshawn is pretty much done and this offense is now Wilson's. I expect the FO to pump huge resources into the offensive line.

I don't think you can really extrapolate Wilson's numbers like that. He was on a historical streak. But he can be a Brees in his prime type of talent, with less picks. And holy ****, would that be awesome.

Anybody saying that OL is not all that important have been:

1. Spoiled by an uber-talented defense that kept us in games

2. Largely ignoring the pressures and sack rate, thinking Russ is made from Unobtanium, thus immune to injuries now and forever.

3. Forgetting how badly a smoke-and-mirror-offensive line, propped up by a spread offense, can fail when matched up with the right DL, or when having to play in the elements. Hint: All of those conditions are present in the post-season, as well as December.

 

[bigskydoc]

I think Carrol/Schneider/Cable/ (and yes) Bevell are taking a long term view of the development of both Wilson and the O-line to be complementary of each other. The moves they have made are not designed to build a "win now" type of line, they are designed to build a line that will be optimal for Wilson once he develops into a NFL caliber pocket QB. I think the hope was that we would have just enough run blocking to keep The Beast productive while Wilson and the line went through their development.

Keep in mind several of the pieces are already on the roster, and we won't need to go o-line heavy in the draft if my guess is correct. Maybe a free agent acquisition to shore things up for a year and give us vet leadership.

I also don't think it will be possible to grade the results of this effort until the end of the 2017 season. It could be an epic failure. To my knowledge, no one has ever tried to build a line like this in the NFL.

It will be interesting to see if any of our developmental guys will be pursued in free agency. They may not be seen as genuine O-line players and may not be highly sought. Or, if things go according to Cable's plan, they could be seen as primary targets like our CBs. O-Line U?

Who's line is this? It's Russell Wilson's line.

- bsd

 

[bigskydoc]

To bring it back to the original topic, I think the offense that we saw in the second half of the season is more what was planned for next year. Injuries forced our hand, even though the line wasn't quite where they wanted it to be before unleashing Wilson. I agree that we are on the cusp of a Russell turning out fantasy numbers, we just had to go to the well a bit earlier than planned.

-bsd

 

[SeAhAwKeR4life]

Some interesting splits to consider for Wilson's 2015 season. Times they are a changin'.

Russell Wilson, pass attempts per game:

2012-2014: 26.1
2015, pre-bye: 26.0
2015, post-bye: 35.9

Wilson's post bye attempts rate would equal 574 pass attempts over 16 games. To put that number in perspective, it would be slightly more pass attempts than Andrew Luck threw in 2013. And here are what Wilson's post bye numbers would look like if prorated over a 16 game season (passing numbers only):

574 attempts, 65.6 completion rate, 8.2 YPA, 4716 yards, 52 TDs, 9 INT

What's interesting to me is that Wilson's completion rate and YPA actually dropped a little in the second half of the season. Wilson's interception rate improved, but not much thanks to two weird playoff games. The two big differences, and they are BIG differences, are Wilson's total attempts and TD rate. Wilson was also dramatically better on 3rd down and in the red zone after switching to spread heavy offense. Also, there's this:

Wilson's passer rating in games where Thomas Rawls led the team in RB carries: 129.7
Wilson's passer rating In all other 2015 games: 94.3 (this includes Wilson's 139.6 rated performance against Baltimore which Rawls started)

What's interesting about these numbers is that the boost from the spread shift impacts them equally: half of the Rawls' games were post-bye, and half of the non-Rawls games were post-bye. The non-Rawls games are hindered a bit by three ugly games with poor game conditions near the end of the season, so the gap is probably exaggerated a bit. But still, Wilson's numbers go through the roof with Rawls, including a huge jump in completion percentage (73.3% with Rawls).

Now before anybody gets TOO excited, we could have looked at Wilson's 2nd half numbers in 2012 and gotten very excited about the offense in 2013. The offense in 2013 was good, but not as amazing as it was in the 2nd half of 2012. The reason being, the NFL was not ready for the read option in 2012, but it was better equipped to stop it the next season. In a similar way, opponents will have the offseason to game plan for Seattle as a spread heavy team and that will dim the numbers some.

All that said, it seems like Seattle is on the cusp of a sensational offense going into 2016, and that's not getting into the chances of an improved OL or the return of Graham / Richardson or Wilson being coached into a larger role in commanding the offense.

Next year is going to be a lot of fun.

That's all well and good, but... I don't know, he just still seems too small. Hey, do you think the Niners would be willing to trade Kaepernick? I think that kid may be going places!









Like the unemployment line.

Yeah Kaep is going, to the bench with a clipboard. He's not an NFL starting QB and I've known that since his brief glory years.

 

[Scottemojo]

I wish we had not had to have had our backs against the wall to change the offense. But much like read option plays in 2012, we adjusted only when we had to.

The good news is it really seems Pete has gotten the memo.

A comment from Bill Belichick's presser the other day really stood out. A reporter asked him a really well thought out question about controlling the clock, passing vs running, the short passing game subbing for a run attack, stuff like that.

Bill's answer was both dismissive and tellingly honest. "whatever gets us points." He doesn't give a crap about his D being on the field too long. He doesn't care about running or passing too much. Points. Points. Points.

For a long time, Pete has been a clock guy. He has said many times that this offense is built around, and will continue to be built around the run.
But points are an addictive substance. Touchdowns instead of field goals are crack for coaches. And I think being forced to ditch some notions about controlling the game with run plays will in the long run be an evolution Seattle has to embrace. I suspect that if Russ were throwing more interceptions Pete would not be so quick to evolve.

The great QBs and coaches evolve. When Brady was young, I suspect Bill didn't feel as he does now, they played ball control and clock management as well as anyone. But managing the cap and keeping the QB supplied with weapons that suit his game led them to tight ends who can catch while presenting quick targets (and murder quite well), quick slot guys who are on the NFL pay scale bargains for the buck, and a dramatic reduction is shuttling personnel packages on and off the field.

I am hopeful that we will see a transition to an offense that gives Russ a chance to read the defense and adjust plays, and uses a guy like Rawls to take the running yards the D is giving.

I think we have some offensive tendencies that will provide speed bumps to being this spread style team. Will we really embrace the spread, or use it as a part time tool, shuttling personnel and changing formations between power ball and spread on a play to play basis? THe better spread teams don't shuttle personnel for situational football as much as we have, will we ever be comfortable with staying 4 wide for 8 or 10 plays in a row? Will we give the receivers freedom to adjust at the LOS based on a defensive look, a check with me type system where the QB and WR make a change without an audible? Will we get away from an offense that spends much of the first half feeling out the D to set up a handful of things in the latter part of the game, or can we become a team that goes after the weakest part of the d right away and never lets up on it? Can we ignore getting a guy like Jimmy his touches, torch the D by taking advantage of say, a bad nickel corner, and when the D finally moves the safety to patch the hole, then got the ball to Jimmy in the flow of the offense?

All those things are easy to say we will do. But if the OC thinks changing personnel and formation play to play is an advantage, it won't be easy. If the human element of ceding power to the QB by giving him more control of the offense occurs, it won't be easy. If it begins with mistakes and losses because the adjustment to a spread isn't smooth, sticking with it will not be easy. If a player is carping because his numbers are reduced, it will not be easy.

I personally think the move to a spread oriented offense is a no brainer. Cap, the difficulty of building a great line, the scarcity of game changing running backs, the relative bargains in quicker, smaller WRs, the advantages provided a QB in reading the D, I think this is an inevitable change for the Seattle O, in a very real adapt or die sense. I just don't anticipate it will be a seamless transition.

 

[kearly]

In other words, I view improving the OL as almost being a luxury. Seattle actually won a SB with the worst OL in the NFL, because they found a way to overcome it. In 2013, they overcame it with Lynch and defense. In 2016, they could overcome it with Rawls and a quick passing attack out of the spread.

I know 2013 is brought up frequently in defense of ignoring the OL, but I'd raise the following arguments against that notion:

1. Except OL, that 2013 team was one of the most talented teams in NFL history. Yet, we were 13-3 and nearly lost 3 or 4 other games. By talent, they should've been 15-1 or better. In every game we lost (or almost lost), it was because we couldn't block Robert Mathis or JJ Watt or Calais Campbell or Robert Quinn, etc. There is little chance we have that much compensating talent any time in the near future.

2. Our terrible OL performance that year was largely due to injury. We had Paul McQuistan and Michael Bowie starting at left and right tackle. Maybe the worst tackle combo ever. That said, we went into the playoffs healthy and the OL played very well. Would we have won the championship if McQ and Bowie were still starting? I find it highly unlikely. Contrast to 2015, where we stayed pretty healthy and, yet, managed to be one of the worst OLs in the league. That bit us in the end.

1. There is a lot of luck that goes into final records. If you look at Fivethirtyeight's numbers, it's uncommon that an opposing team doesn't have at least a 25% chance to win any game in the NFL, which means that over the course of a 16 game season even the very best NFL teams will need some luck on their side to reach 12+ wins. It's the same reason why Vegas feels very uncomfortable putting their 'season wins' over/under above 11 or so, even for the perennially elite teams. This is also reflected in estimated wins and pythag wins which tend to be modest numbers (Carolina went 15-1 this season with 11.1 estimated wins, for example. As far as the 2013 Seahawks, their 13.0 estimated wins matched their record perfectly).

Citing the Texans or Rams games in 2013 is fair, but Seattle also struggled against Tennessee and a winless Tampa team that year. Seattle was a young and inconsistent team that season, but still very good, which is why they won all but 3 games. The same line that struggled against AZ had beaten them like a drum a few weeks prior. And even in some of the games that the OL played its very worst, Seattle still found a way to win because other aspects of the team overcame it.

And Seattle is hardly unique or exceptional in their ability to win with a bad OL. Just look at the current playoff picture. The Panthers are the only remaining team with an above average OL, and that same OL was horrific just last season. And these are the top two seeds in each conference too.

2. OL depth and OL durability is a part of OL quality. The regular season unit was worst in the NFL and went 13-3. The playoff unit did get healthy and played better.

...

Back in the Holmgren days, when Seattle ran a precise offense and couldn't lean on defense - and based everything around an injury prone QB - the offensive line had enormous value. Back then, you wouldn't find anyone more apoplectic than I when it was announced that Tim Ruskell had transition-tagged Hutch. I wanted OL in the first round every year. It hardly seemed like a coincidence that the one year Seattle got monster OL play, they went to the SB.

I felt this way early in the PC/JS admin too. I loved that they took Okung. I loved that they spent another 1st rounder on OL the next draft after that.

But the past few seasons with Russell Wilson have changed that, especially the latter half of this season when Seattle went spread heavy and the sack totals plummetted, or even before the switch to spread when Thomas Rawls was carving up teams with the same OL.

Seattle has become one of those teams that can disguise or overcome poor OL play. Teams like Brady's Patriots, Peyton's teams, Rodgers and Big Ben until recently. And while Rodgers and Big Ben actually have had good offensive lines the past couple seasons, it hasn't helped them win more games or advance further in the playoffs.

So while I am just fine with investing in the OL and improving it, I also understand that Seattle is a team that can get by with less at the position. And when you look at the other QBs and teams that have similarly gotten by with less at OL, you realize that it is very good company to have.

 

[Hawks46]

Good post Scotte.

I think we have to look back to see forward here. First off, I don't see us averaging 36 passes a game unless our offense is out there so long we're getting a lot more plays. Pete wants it to stay balanced, and a good run attack is key to hitting teams over the top for explosive plays (as I don't see us collecting talent at WR like Pittsburgh and slinging it all over the field, and even then they have a dangerous RB to keep teams honest).

Cable is on record as saying "you throw to score and run to win". I've also heard Pete as saying he's really keen on being able to close teams out with the run and controlling the clock in the 4th quarter. These principles mesh.

Looking back, we've run out of the spread before, and Lynch averaged more ypc out of the spread than any other formation. I think Rawls is even more explosive, and it's possible we go that way. So it's not a new thing that we had to run out of the spread this year, it goes back a few years.

I think it's going to be telling how we do things by watching the draft. Right now, we have Graham and Willson at TE, which aren't really dominating run blocking TE's. We can run out of the spread, and also be a power run team by substitution, but you're going to need good run blocking TE's to do this. Yes, you can go heavy/jumbo by bringing in Tackles, but it makes the play call obvious which then comes back to the defense knows what you're doing so your OL better win their individual matchups.

The one good thing, and it comes back to the OP, is that I believe there was some uncertainty about Wilson's ability to become a good pocket passer. At some point, we know his legs will slow down, and the question was, could he win games with his arm ?

He's answered that with a resounding YES. Now we can start to build a team around that for the future. Unlike the Britt poll topic, most GM's understand you don't throw a couple of draft picks at an OL and fix it immediately. It takes time and development, and there needs to be a long term plan in place. I think that's happening now, and the future won't be relying on Wilson's magic legs to bail the offense out consistently.

 

[joeseahawks]

Watching both Superbowl contenders this year will on reinforce Pete's belief that: Defense wins championship. Period.
I expect Pete and John to spend more money on Defense (Corner and D-Line), which means there will be less $$$ for the offense. I also expect Pete to continue to limit Russell's throws to around 30.

 

[HawKnPeppa]

Watching both Superbowl contenders this year will on reinforce Pete's belief that: Defense wins championship. Period.
I expect Pete and John to spend more money on Defense (Corner and D-Line), which means there will be less $$$ for the offense. I also expect Pete to continue to limit Russell's throws to around 30.

I'm pretty sure we will have to be more dynamic than that out of necessity. Other teams have closed the gap, and I think we just witnessed a team in Carolina that might even be doing run - PA/stifling defense better than we've ever been able to. I doubt we abandon either approach (spread or Run-PA) as they both have advantages. Rather we will be able to switch between them with ease, as the situation dictates, once the OL is shored up. It think it will be some time before we can go toe to toe in the trenches (both sides of the ball) with Carolina. It's not something that is fixed overnight. Also, you don't pay Wilson big bucks only to make him into a full-time game manager.

 

[chris98251]

Looking at both teams they are mirrors of the Seahawks on Defense, and they are not shy about pointing at us as their example, other teams are on the upswing as well using our blueprint. Harder to find those diamonds that we have harvested in the past when everyone is now digging in the same hole.