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What Will Seattle Do If a Top shelf Talent Falls to Them...

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  • ...at 18?

    Will they still trade down regardless?

    Based on how the last 4 drafts have gone I will puke.

    The team doesn't need more Cassius Marsh's, Kevin Pierre-Louis', Mark Glowinski's, Tedric Thompson's. They need beasts.

    All I'm saying is if Seattle has a 1st rd graded player on their board at 18. Take him.

    For those that may not know. There are only about 15-20 1st rd graded players in any NFL Draft. That is why it makes so much sense to trade down when drafting in the 20's because their really isn't that much difference between the 24th player taken and the 38th player taken. So why not pick up more picks.

    But this year is different. They are now drafting in the TEENS. If the opportunity is there they must take advantage if it happens.
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  • Fade wrote:...at 18?

    Will they still trade down regardless?

    Based on how the last 4 drafts have gone I will puke.

    The team doesn't need more Cassius Marsh's, Kevin Pierre-Louis', Mark Glowinski's, Tedric Thompson's. They need beasts.

    All I'm saying is if Seattle has a 1st rd graded player on their board at 18. Take him.

    For those that may not know. There are only about 15-20 1st rd graded players in any NFL Draft. That is why it makes so much sense to trade down when drafting in the 20's because their really isn't that much difference between the 24th player taken and the 38th player taken. So why not pick up more picks.

    But this year is different. They are now drafting in the TEENS. If the opportunity is there they must take advantage if it happens.


    I totally agree, I was thinking the same thing. I believe the reason we have traded down is exactly as you say, i.e., the truly immediate-impact players were likely gone.

    There seems to be a general consensus on the board that we will trade down regardless. It's going to depend on who is available.

    For an example, just think what we would have missed if we had traded down when we selected Earl Thomas w/the 14th pick in 2010.
    In the old days the other O-linemen would have just taken Ifedi out back and beat the crap out of him.
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  • Fade wrote:...at 18?

    Will they still trade down regardless?

    Based on how the last 4 drafts have gone I will puke.

    The team doesn't need more Cassius Marsh's, Kevin Pierre-Louis', Mark Glowinski's, Tedric Thompson's. They need beasts.

    All I'm saying is if Seattle has a 1st rd graded player on their board at 18. Take him.

    For those that may not know. There are only about 15-20 1st rd graded players in any NFL Draft. That is why it makes so much sense to trade down when drafting in the 20's because their really isn't that much difference between the 24th player taken and the 38th player taken. So why not pick up more picks.

    But this year is different. They are now drafting in the TEENS. If the opportunity is there they must take advantage if it happens.

    They will most likely trade down.

    I hate this as a fan but Pete Carroll believes they can still find "diamonds" in later rounds and trade down!!!

    Me when they do this year after year...***Facepalm***

    Newsflash, they haven't drafted a 3rd day pro bowler in how long??!!

    Carroll and Schneider think waaaay too highly of themselves. SMDH.

    Good, grief, Charlie Brown!!
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  • DomeHawk wrote:
    Fade wrote:...at 18?

    Will they still trade down regardless?

    Based on how the last 4 drafts have gone I will puke.

    The team doesn't need more Cassius Marsh's, Kevin Pierre-Louis', Mark Glowinski's, Tedric Thompson's. They need beasts.

    All I'm saying is if Seattle has a 1st rd graded player on their board at 18. Take him.

    For those that may not know. There are only about 15-20 1st rd graded players in any NFL Draft. That is why it makes so much sense to trade down when drafting in the 20's because their really isn't that much difference between the 24th player taken and the 38th player taken. So why not pick up more picks.

    But this year is different. They are now drafting in the TEENS. If the opportunity is there they must take advantage if it happens.


    I totally agree, I was thinking the same thing. I believe the reason we have traded down is exactly as you say, i.e., the truly immediate-impact players were likely gone.

    There seems to be a general consensus on the board that we will trade down regardless. It's going to depend on who is available.

    For an example, just think what we would have missed if we had traded down when we selected Earl Thomas w/the 14th pick in 2010.


    If they get a player at 18 that they covet like they did Earl I'm sure they'll draft him. My guess is that kind of talent won't be there though and they'll trade back. Last year's draft was a perfect example if you look at the guys that were drafted from 26 to 36 they're all of similar talent (Ruben Foster was highly thought of) so why not trade back and pick up a few picks.
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  • TheLegendOfBoom wrote:
    Fade wrote:...at 18?

    Will they still trade down regardless?

    Based on how the last 4 drafts have gone I will puke.

    The team doesn't need more Cassius Marsh's, Kevin Pierre-Louis', Mark Glowinski's, Tedric Thompson's. They need beasts.

    All I'm saying is if Seattle has a 1st rd graded player on their board at 18. Take him.

    For those that may not know. There are only about 15-20 1st rd graded players in any NFL Draft. That is why it makes so much sense to trade down when drafting in the 20's because their really isn't that much difference between the 24th player taken and the 38th player taken. So why not pick up more picks.

    But this year is different. They are now drafting in the TEENS. If the opportunity is there they must take advantage if it happens.

    They will most likely trade down.

    I hate this as a fan but Pete Carroll believes they can still find "diamonds" in later rounds and trade down!!!

    Me when they do this year after year...***Facepalm***

    Newsflash, they haven't drafted a 3rd day pro bowler in how long??!!

    Carroll and Schneider think waaaay too highly of themselves. SMDH.

    Good, grief, Charlie Brown!!


    How long has it been since we've found a 1st round pro bowler? The guys that are gonna be available at 18 are underwhelming.
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  • getnasty wrote:
    TheLegendOfBoom wrote:
    Fade wrote:...at 18?

    Will they still trade down regardless?

    Based on how the last 4 drafts have gone I will puke.

    The team doesn't need more Cassius Marsh's, Kevin Pierre-Louis', Mark Glowinski's, Tedric Thompson's. They need beasts.

    All I'm saying is if Seattle has a 1st rd graded player on their board at 18. Take him.

    For those that may not know. There are only about 15-20 1st rd graded players in any NFL Draft. That is why it makes so much sense to trade down when drafting in the 20's because their really isn't that much difference between the 24th player taken and the 38th player taken. So why not pick up more picks.

    But this year is different. They are now drafting in the TEENS. If the opportunity is there they must take advantage if it happens.

    They will most likely trade down.

    I hate this as a fan but Pete Carroll believes they can still find "diamonds" in later rounds and trade down!!!

    Me when they do this year after year...***Facepalm***

    Newsflash, they haven't drafted a 3rd day pro bowler in how long??!!

    Carroll and Schneider think waaaay too highly of themselves. SMDH.

    Good, grief, Charlie Brown!!


    How long has it been since we've found a 1st round pro bowler? The guys that are gonna be available at 18 are underwhelming.


    Well, since we don't draft players in the 1st round, yes, it's been a while, lol.

    (Where do they find these people?)
    In the old days the other O-linemen would have just taken Ifedi out back and beat the crap out of him.
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  • Whatever they do, I'm sure some folks around here will fight about it. :twisted:
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    It takes character to win when you get there.

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  • Fade wrote:...at 18?

    Will they still trade down regardless?

    Based on how the last 4 drafts have gone I will puke.

    The team doesn't need more Cassius Marsh's, Kevin Pierre-Louis', Mark Glowinski's, Tedric Thompson's. They need beasts.

    All I'm saying is if Seattle has a 1st rd graded player on their board at 18. Take him.

    For those that may not know. There are only about 15-20 1st rd graded players in any NFL Draft. That is why it makes so much sense to trade down when drafting in the 20's because their really isn't that much difference between the 24th player taken and the 38th player taken. So why not pick up more picks.

    But this year is different. They are now drafting in the TEENS. If the opportunity is there they must take advantage if it happens.


    I totally agree.

    Instead of drafting Fletcher Cox we traded back and got Bruce Irvin.

    Still makes me vomit.
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  • It's not the trade downs hurting the Seahawks, it's the players they end up deciding to pick.

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  • They seem to be changing lots of their approaches so it's fair to assume they will adapt their approach with the draft as well.

    If their plan is to go RB early, a trade down is absolutely guaranteed. There's lots of RB depth early-ish.

    I still believe they will restock their draft picks, therefore think, provided an appropriately graded player is still available at 18, they'll take them.
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  • HawkNuts wrote:
    Fade wrote:...at 18?

    Will they still trade down regardless?

    Based on how the last 4 drafts have gone I will puke.

    The team doesn't need more Cassius Marsh's, Kevin Pierre-Louis', Mark Glowinski's, Tedric Thompson's. They need beasts.

    All I'm saying is if Seattle has a 1st rd graded player on their board at 18. Take him.

    For those that may not know. There are only about 15-20 1st rd graded players in any NFL Draft. That is why it makes so much sense to trade down when drafting in the 20's because their really isn't that much difference between the 24th player taken and the 38th player taken. So why not pick up more picks.

    But this year is different. They are now drafting in the TEENS. If the opportunity is there they must take advantage if it happens.


    I totally agree.

    Instead of drafting Fletcher Cox we traded back and got Bruce Irvin.

    Still makes me vomit.


    Hard draft to complain about
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  • TheLegendOfBoom wrote:They will most likely trade down.

    I hate this as a fan but Pete Carroll believes they can still find "diamonds" in later rounds and trade down!!!

    Me when they do this year after year...***Facepalm***

    Newsflash, they haven't drafted a 3rd day pro bowler in how long??!!

    Carroll and Schneider think waaaay too highly of themselves. SMDH.

    Good, grief, Charlie Brown!!


    Since 2010 Pete has drafted three 3rd day pro bowlers (Kam, Sherman, KJ). Most in the NFL. Since 2012 there have only been 18 total... including two kickers (Blair Walsh, and Zuerlein), three special teamers (Justin Bethel, Pharoh Cooper, D.J. Alexander), and one FB (Kyle Juszczyk).

    Getting Pro Bowl players in day 3 is not a common occurrence. Not to mention when you are a good team, you are drafting for depth, not necessarily for players that will play enough to put up the numbers to win a fan vote.
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  • What would you assume the trade value of M. Bennett to be? Would it be enough to get a second or third round pick back in this years draft?
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  • JGreen79 wrote:
    TheLegendOfBoom wrote:They will most likely trade down.

    I hate this as a fan but Pete Carroll believes they can still find "diamonds" in later rounds and trade down!!!

    Me when they do this year after year...***Facepalm***

    Newsflash, they haven't drafted a 3rd day pro bowler in how long??!!

    Carroll and Schneider think waaaay too highly of themselves. SMDH.

    Good, grief, Charlie Brown!!


    Since 2010 Pete has drafted three 3rd day pro bowlers (Kam, Sherman, KJ). Most in the NFL. Since 2012 there have only been 18 total... including two kickers (Blair Walsh, and Zuerlein), three special teamers (Justin Bethel, Pharoh Cooper, D.J. Alexander), and one FB (Kyle Juszczyk).

    Getting Pro Bowl players in day 3 is not a common occurrence. Not to mention when you are a good team, you are drafting for depth, not necessarily for players that will play enough to put up the numbers to win a fan vote.

    Exactly!

    Kam, Sherm and KJ, were drafted a long time ago!

    These guys are now towards the later years of their careers!

    PC and JD has not made an impact in later rounds since these guys!

    It's way past due!
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  • So history shows we're dropping down. Especially with no 2nd and 3rd...

    I haven't looked at the values but just spit balling here.

    We trade 18 to whoever for 22 and the 22nd pick in the third round.

    We then trade 22 for 32 and the 32 in the second round.

    We draft Sony Michel or whomever the best RB available is at 32. And we also have 32 in the 2nd and 22 in the third.

    That is how you draft baby!
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  • massari wrote:It's not the trade downs hurting the Seahawks, it's the players they end up deciding to pick.

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    Statistically you have a better chance of drafting a pro-bowl type player earlier in the draft. That's kind of the point.
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  • therealjohncarlson wrote:
    massari wrote:It's not the trade downs hurting the Seahawks, it's the players they end up deciding to pick.

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    Statistically you have a better chance of drafting a pro-bowl type player earlier in the draft. That's kind of the point.


    Exactly

    Average number of pro-bowlers by round:

    Round 1: 12.5

    Round 2: 5.5

    Round 3: 2

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  • gowazzu02 wrote:So history shows we're dropping down. Especially with no 2nd and 3rd...

    I haven't looked at the values but just spit balling here.

    We trade 18 to whoever for 22 and the 22nd pick in the third round.

    We then trade 22 for 32 and the 32 in the second round.

    We draft Sony Michel or whomever the best RB available is at 32. And we also have 32 in the 2nd and 22 in the third.

    That is how you draft baby!



    So I was interested, I googled the trade chart.

    Pick 18 has a value of 900

    My guess of 22 and 22 in the third round has a value of 940 (780 and 160) I imagine thats doable

    Then second trade of 22 which has a value of 780
    for 32 and 32 in the 2nd has a value of 860 (519 and 270). That might be a bit off we might have to throw in our 5th (33) or our 6th (20)

    But the big thing here is the Quarterback factor. Theres talk that there are about 4 or 5 first round QBs which will drive the trade market, it will also let talented non qbs fall which could drive the trade market. I imagine were going to see a TON of trade activity.
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  • DomeHawk wrote:
    therealjohncarlson wrote:
    massari wrote:It's not the trade downs hurting the Seahawks, it's the players they end up deciding to pick.

    Image


    Statistically you have a better chance of drafting a pro-bowl type player earlier in the draft. That's kind of the point.


    Exactly

    Average number of pro-bowlers by round:

    Round 1: 12.5

    Round 2: 5.5

    Round 3: 2

    https://www.battleredblog.com/2011/4/27 ... -2000-2007

    I'm guessing there's the same chance of drafting a pro bowler in late round 1/early round 2 as there is in the late teens of round 1.
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  • The thing is by who's metrics are we looking at "top shelf talent"?

    In every draft there are usually only so many genune 1st round talents. So far it is estimated there may only be 18 in the this draft ( Source: Seahawks draft blog). What if the guy left at 18 isn't the player the team wants, character issues, or poor positional fit, health issues) but is the last genuine talent left from the first round? Does the team draft him anyway? Does the team trade back for player they think is a better fit and recapture value for another early pick?

    Except for OLinemen the team has done not a bad job finding players that fit their needs, some are certainly better than others I agree but the history since 2010 has been good and certainly better than average.
    Until we develop a pass rush that will cause opposing teams to be forced to scheme to defend it we will never be able to consistently take the final step. The interior rush needs improvement. The OLine clearly still needs work.

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  • They will trade put
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  • jammerhawk wrote:The thing is by who's metrics are we looking at "top shelf talent"?

    In every draft there are usually only so many genune 1st round talents. So far it is estimated there may only be 18 in the this draft ( Source: Seahawks draft blog). What if the guy left at 18 isn't the player the team wants, character issues, or poor positional fit, health issues) but is the last genuine talent left from the first round? Does the team draft him anyway? Does the team trade back for player they think is a better fit and recapture value for another early pick?

    Except for OLinemen the team has done not a bad job finding players that fit their needs, some are certainly better than others I agree but the history since 2010 has been good and certainly better than average.


    Did you not read my OP?
    Fade wrote:All I'm saying is if Seattle has a 1st rd graded player on their board at 18. Take him.
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  • Yeah I read your post, but asked some real questions about the hard and fast rule of taking the player.

    You apparently didn’t read my post or I wasn’t clear.

    As to your basic premise I don’t disagree with you and suspect that the team’s hard list of players they think are ‘top shelf talent’ is shorter than a lot of other teams given their history. If they have a big list of next tier players with ‘similar assessed value’ then of course they start to maximize their pick value. I doubt they do it simply to get more picks at the loss of a ‘top shelf talent’. There are other factors of need, positional depth, future roster composition, and

    This is the earliest the FO will get to pick since their first season here so trading back may not hold the same value to them as in prior years when picking in the last quarter of the round.

    I hope they do have one of their ‘top shelf talent’s’ fall to them at 18 and they do pick then instead of trading back and settling for lesser but more picks. It is a perspective difference as far as value thing in the end. We never know for some time if the higher shelf talent is in fact really that talented.
    Until we develop a pass rush that will cause opposing teams to be forced to scheme to defend it we will never be able to consistently take the final step. The interior rush needs improvement. The OLine clearly still needs work.

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  • Couple of years ago we traded down with Philadelphia, and they took the guy I wanted (Fletcher Cox), while we got Bruce Irvin.

    Fletcher Cox is that rare interior dlineman that can disrupt the middle.

    The only possibility I see that would be worth the 18th pick, Vita Vea, IF he falls that far. Otherwise, I'm not sure I want to pass up getting a 2nd or 3rd round pick.

    I just hope if John does trade back, that he gets more than usual, because a 1st rounder gives a team a 5th year option. That is HUGE when it comes to control of an elite player. Saves money, and keeps that player on your team.
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  • We target differently as our drafts indicate, at 18 were just at the edge of elite players, if there is a run on QB's or another position it can push down players. Again we target differently, so a player teams initially thought was at lets say 14 or 15 makes it to 18, call John and we trade down to 2nd and a third or lets say to 28 and a 3rd etc. That's how I see our draft moving. Our player we value as our highest player but is forecast to go at 35 or 40, that's our latitude.
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  • What mystifies me is that so many people think we can't get a pro-bowl type player at 18. And, I'm not necessarily saying we can, but we got a Hall of Fame player at 14 so it doesn't seem so out of the realm to me.
    In the old days the other O-linemen would have just taken Ifedi out back and beat the crap out of him.
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  • DomeHawk wrote:What mystifies me is that so many people think we can't get a pro-bowl type player at 18. And, I'm not necessarily saying we can, but we got a Hall of Fame player at 14 so it doesn't seem so out of the realm to me.

    Yabbut...what is better, getting one player who may be Pro Bowl caliber versus getting 3 players from rounds 1-3 that might also become pro-bowlers albeit on a lower percentage chance. I know everybody has their ratings charts as to value of picks, there are several of them out there, but that number doesn't necessarily tell the whole story.

    Also, there are often 2 or 3 players that the team thinks are worthy of that value. What do they do if 2 of them are still available, or all 3? Is the best player so good that you risk losing a shot at the other 2?

    People want to simplify this decision. I don't think it's all that simple. Right now, we don't have any day 2 picks. That's a huge hole in our draft opportunities this year. I won't complain if they trade back to get a pick in Rd 2 and/or 3.
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  • sutz wrote:
    DomeHawk wrote:What mystifies me is that so many people think we can't get a pro-bowl type player at 18. And, I'm not necessarily saying we can, but we got a Hall of Fame player at 14 so it doesn't seem so out of the realm to me.

    Yabbut...what is better, getting one player who may be Pro Bowl caliber versus getting 3 players from rounds 1-3 that might also become pro-bowlers albeit on a lower percentage chance. I know everybody has their ratings charts as to value of picks, there are several of them out there, but that number doesn't necessarily tell the whole story.

    Also, there are often 2 or 3 players that the team thinks are worthy of that value. What do they do if 2 of them are still available, or all 3? Is the best player so good that you risk losing a shot at the other 2?

    People want to simplify this decision. I don't think it's all that simple. Right now, we don't have any day 2 picks. That's a huge hole in our draft opportunities this year. I won't complain if they trade back to get a pick in Rd 2 and/or 3.


    Of course you make a good point BUT the only reason I would trade down (outside of there simply being no one available) is that very scenario (that we don't have any picks down there).
    In the old days the other O-linemen would have just taken Ifedi out back and beat the crap out of him.
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  • They simply can't come out of the first two days of the draft with only one player. Too many needs on a roster that is turning over. Fortunately, some of their biggest needs are the deeper areas of this draft (RB, TE) so trading down makes even more sense this year.
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  • Based on the last few drafts they will make some absurd calculation trade out of the pick and screw themselves out of a great player.
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  • Northwest Seahawk wrote:Based on the last few drafts they will make some absurd calculation trade out of the pick and screw themselves out of a great player.



    Oh please. This is the first time we havnt made the playoffs in how many years? Please check your tone at the door. I get enough of that at home.....
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  • Northwest Seahawk wrote:Based on the last few drafts they will make some absurd calculation trade out of the pick and screw themselves out of a great player.


    I think the thing that frustrates me the most is the value we get when we trade down. I think other GMs know that John likes to trade down, so they don't offer up equitable trades.

    I see other teams "appear" to do much better when they trade out of the 1st round. Like I mentioned before, 1st round picks are so valuable because of the control it gives a team over a talented player that will command big dollars down the line.

    That 5th year option is like a pick all by itself because of how much money it saves the team when keeping a 1st round talent for one more year on a rookie pay scale.
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