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Mock Draft: Going Offense Heavy

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Mock Draft: Going Offense Heavy
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:58 pm
  • Been really enjoying getting into draft season, so thought I'd throw out a mock. I'm not trying to predict what the Seahawks will do (Going to leave that to smarter minds). This is more throwing out a scenario for discussion.


    Quick Note: I think we all fully expect Seattle to trade back this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle trades their first round pick all together in an attempt to fix their pass rush. But regardless, I think we see a trade back. For now I have the Giants trading back up into the first round; Gettleman’s job is on the line, so I expect him to be aggressive. Trade Details: Seattle Trades #27 for #36 and #98.

    Assumption 1: Things go well for Seattle in Free Agency. Specifically, Seattle resigns Jadeveon Clowney, manages to retain Reed on a short term deal due to a soft market, and still has enough money to bring in one or two of Robert Quinn/Dante Fowler/Emmanuel Ogbah/JPP/Vic Beasley.

    Assumption 2: I think there’s enough smoke this season to suggest Russell wants more firepower on offense. The rumors about Antonio Brown, the claim of Josh Gordon, the infamous “Weapons” tweet during the AFC Championship game. This drives Pete and John to better support Wilson and the offense.

    Assumption 3: Germaine Ifedi and Mike Iupati leave in FA but Justin Britt is retained.

    Alright, on to the picks:

    2nd Round - Pick 4: Denzel Mim, WR, Baylor

    Mims has definitely been a Senior Bowl winner, but coming from a family of Baylor alums, I’ve had some time to watch him the last couple years. He’s good. He’s really really good. There’s a part of me that wants to say he’s Josh Gordon good, but I’m holding back on that.

    Mims is a tall, fast WR but a complete 180 from what the Seahawks have in DK. Mims is a fantastic route runner. And that’s not shade at DK, but where DK wins with speed and physicality, Mims with technique and quickness. Mims is a bigger Tyler Lockett in my mind, but with better hands.

    The downside to Mims, and what I think will limit him at the next level, is he struggles with bigger physical corners that can press him well at the line. For as good as he is at using his arms to separate, line him up against Sherm and I think he struggles.

    But Mims adds another weapon to this offense and, I think, he would make Lockett tradeable in 2021.



    2nd Round - Pick 27: Josh Jones, OT, Houston

    I should start by saying, I am not the biggest fan of Jones. I think there are better tackle options in this draft. But I do think Jones could fall here, and with Brown still under contract and a team leader, I think you can take a developmental guy like Jones.

    If you’ve been following the Senior Bowl, you know that Jones has been struggling quite a bit this week. Not totally unexpected considering he's still something of a raw prospect.

    But, on the bright side, he moves very well for his size. I think Jones is one of the better movers in this tackle class. He may not have the power of a Becton or Wilson but I think he’s more fluid. I think this team needs to start thinking post Duane Brown while we still have Brown in the starting role. Jones fits the bill here. Give him a year to sit behind Brown (and maybe spot start due to injury) and I think this pick looks much better in 2021.



    2nd Round - Pick 32: Lucas Niang, OT, TCU

    At the end of the second I have Seattle going Tackle again. With Ifedi leaving, I think this team needs to build its Tackle depth and I don’t think putting Jones at RT is the best way to develop him. I think one analogy I’ve heard in the past is that switching sides on the OL is like learning to do everything with your non-dominant hand.

    But Niang is another big dude that moves well. There’s also a lot of power to his game and I think you could start him at Right Tackle day one and the drop off from Ifedi would not be that bad. Niang also may be off the board at this point but I think there’s a chance he could fall this far. The combine will be a big one for him.



    3rd Round - Pick 98: Solomon Kindley, OG, Georgia

    I think this is a very hopeful projection, but there are still people that rank Kindley in this range so I’m going with it.

    Kindley is a monster. A monster that can just maul you at the line of scrimmage. When I watch him play, he’s just a mean dude. There are issues with his play, but I think they all come from his over aggressive mindset. He's not the smoothest athlete on the field, but he doesn't really have to be. He's powerful. Powerful enough that I think Kindley could be an answer to Aaron Donald and DeForest Buckner.



    3rd Round - Pick 100: Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR, Liberty

    Let’s give Russell another weapon. Gandy-Golden has been another stand out from the Senior Bowl and I expect him to steadily rise up draft boards. This guys is 6’3, 220 and I think will run in the 4.4s.

    He also has great hands. He’s great over the middle. He’s also great at breaking tackles and transitioning into a runner. I don’t necessarily think he will be a YAC machine, but if you need four yards, Gandy-Golden is a guy that get you six.

    He needs to learn more moves off the line and he relies way to much on his ability to out physical you, but for a QB that loves to throw to his 1 one 1’s, Gandy-Golden is a great match..



    4th Round - Pick 27: Jabari Zuniga, EDGE, Florida

    As low as this seems for Zuniga, I actually think it will be possible for him to fall this far. Zuniga had a down 2019, he’s not made much a buzz at the Senior Bowl, and to be honest, I’m not sure he’s even that great to begin with.

    Remember, this is the 4th round, so just getting a starter is a good thing. Zuniga can be that if all things work out. He’s got the profile to be a successful edge rusher and I think he will test well at the combine. So you have the physical traits to work with.

    But I remember Scot McCloughan saying at one point that he could tell within 12 snaps if an EDGE had “it”. And I am not sure Zuniga has “it”. Zuniga is painfully slow off the snap at times and I really question if he even has a feel for where the ball carrier is. In other words, I worry about Zuniga’s processing ability. If he’s slow in college, how will he be in the pros?

    But, given the athletic make-up and the need for speed and youth at the position, I think this is a good pick.



    4th Round - Pick 40: Jonathan Garvin, DE, Miami

    Double-dipping into the Florida Defensive End pool, Seattle takes Jonathan Garvin. Garvin is a former 4-Star Recruit who flashes decent speed and power and plays with a good motor. He’s not a world beater in any way, but I think he could fill that Jacob Martin role. And Garvin has more weight and length than Martin did.

    Defensive line is still a big need, even in this scenario. Any FA signing should be viewed as a rental, and even if they are not, the DL is so starved with talent that getting a player like Garvin to add some much needed depth makes sense to me.



    5th Round - Pick 16: Jeremy Chinn, S, Southern Illinois

    If you’ve been following the College Football board, you’re no stranger to this guy. Jim Nagy compared him to Kam… That’s enough for me.





    6th Round - Pick 43: Rico Dowdle, RB, South Carolina

    Rico Dowdle is a hedge on our injury plagued running back room. I think he offers a skillset akin to a Carson-lite. He’s a bigger back, but he is still dangerous in the open field. And is a good receiver out of the backfield.



    Pros:

    1) More weapons for Wilson
    2) Getting Experienced Pass Rush help has quicker returns than rookies.
    3) Adding two OTs definitely sets up this OL for success in the future.
    4) Youth at DE and time for them to develop

    Cons:

    1) No TE. A (healthy) playmaker at TE would really improve our offense.
    2) Punting replacing Justin Britt and Jarren Reed.
    3) No CBs. Hopes Flowers and Amadi improve.
    4) Minor investment in RB with both starters coming off season ending injury.
    Yxes1122
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Re: Mock Draft: Going Offense Heavy
Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:22 pm
  • It's kind of funny, because I run through the mock simulators, and probably 4 out of 5 of them end up being offense heavy.

    And almost all of them are OL heavy. With a WR that you never thought would be on the board there at 64.

    There are just a handful of guys that I would bang the table for at #27.

    If they drop:

    Kinlaw
    Chaisson
    Wirfs

    in that order

    Possibly available:

    Becton
    Delpit


    Otherwise, moving back to the early/mid 40s and adding a pick in the 80-95 overall range looks like the sweet spot. Indeed one could build a really great draft with 5-6 picks in the 45-95 range.

    Feels like WR sweet spot for value is 60-75 overall. OL looks like it's either 10-20 for tackles or 55-75, for interior guys.

    Really looks like unless an OT or DE falls, then there is kind of a mixed bag of tier 2 players that don't really fit need at 27. Or fit need, but are almost indistinguishable from what will likely be there at 64. Overall, I think the 1st round talent dries up around 23 overall and there is a big gap between that and 24-40. Then there is a big glut of talent 40-75 for day one starter material, along with good depth/year 2 starter material 75-100 at places of need in the next 2 year window.

    Barring using #27 on a gift from the draft Gods, if we can manage to get three 2nds and three 3rds -- we could really kill this draft. It would mean moving multiple times from 27, and possibly sacrificing one of our 4th round picks.
    Attyla the Hawk
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Re: Mock Draft: Going Offense Heavy
Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:34 pm
  • I suspect defense gets thoroughly overly drafted in the 1st and it wouldn’t surprise me if Kinlaw was gone by 15.

    This draft is just stacked on offense so I can see teams waiting until Day 2. You can really go so many different ways and get quality. I’d really like Seattle come out with at least OT (preferably a Brown successor). I feel like there are a lot of combinations of picks to make that happen. It really depends on how the runs start.

    But Seattle really needs to do work in FA to be in a position not to overdraft on Defense. Otherwise we’re going to end up in a Collier/Penny scenario with our first pick.
    Yxes1122
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Re: Mock Draft: Going Offense Heavy
Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:52 pm
  • Nice work. Thank you for putting in the time.

    This is the year I want them to trade back from 27, in to the 2nd. I forget who said it, but it was "1st round talent only reaches to the 15th or 20th pick. After that, it's all 2nd round value. "

    Like Atylla says, we could really smoke this draft with a bunch of 2nd and 3rd rounders. Especially with John Schneider and his cohorts at the helm.
    ivotuk
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Re: Mock Draft: Going Offense Heavy
Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:36 pm
  • Well done, really well done
    getnasty
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Re: Mock Draft: Going Offense Heavy
Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:55 pm
  • ivotuk wrote:Nice work. Thank you for putting in the time.

    This is the year I want them to trade back from 27, in to the 2nd. I forget who said it, but it was "1st round talent only reaches to the 15th or 20th pick. After that, it's all 2nd round value. "

    Like Atylla says, we could really smoke this draft with a bunch of 2nd and 3rd rounders. Especially with John Schneider and his cohorts at the helm.


    Thanks ivotuk!

    Agreed. Day 2 is the sweet spot of this draft and having more picks let’s you fill out more parts of the roster with talent. I know that sounds like “duh” but really, the drop off in my mind from the 3rd OT to the 7th is not that huge. The drop from the 2nd OG to the 7th is not that huge. Same for the WR and TE. So there a bunch of scenarios in that 2nd Day id be happy with.

    It’s actually a bummer that KC and SF are in the SB. Having another mid-high second as ammo to trade back would be awesome.

    getnasty wrote:Well done, really well done


    Thank you! The off-season is always super interesting for me and it’s nice to be able to share my thoughts.
    Yxes1122
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Re: Mock Draft: Going Offense Heavy
Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:30 pm

Re: Mock Draft: Going Offense Heavy
Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:10 pm
  • I do my own mocks weekly during this part of the off-season and I'm constantly moving picks around to conform to current rankings, which is pretty subjective in that rankings aren't really totally set yet, here is my latest version, including a trade out of the 1-st round. (xxx)= current rankings @ drafttek.com - I really like this mock version, but I'd expect more information from the combine may move some of these guys around a bit, both up & down.

    *Assuming* ---->SEA signs a veteran FA pass rusher + a veteran ORT & maybe even a veteran TE.
    1/24/2020-MY MOCK, - TRADE #27(680) TO: Cinn. for #33(580) & 97(112) = 680 vs: 692 points. (Cinn. maybe wants back into round-1 for LSU WR-Jefferson for their new LSU QB-Burrow's comfort?) In this mock, the Seahawks MAY even be able to do another small trade down from #33 & maybe add a Rd-4-ish pick.

    33(T)--------DT(5-tech)-James Lynch(48) -- With Reed possibly gone, a +++ production guy.
    59------------WR/KR-Brandon Aiyuk(90) -- Best WR option for the Seahawks, IF he's available here.
    63------------OG-Logan Stenberg(64) -- Interior guard replacement that is a big need - replace the oldies.
    97(T)---------EDGE-Alex Highsmith(102) --A slight developmental pick, with ++ production & + upside.
    101(comp)--OC-lloyd Cushenberry(127) -- Britt likely gone, Hunt too small, here is best available OC.
    123-----------FS/SS/CB/nickle-LB?-Kyle Dugger(134) -- Find a spot somewhere, anywhere, he's a dog.
    134(comp)--RB-A. J. Dillon(154) -- Power banger with great size to help him avoid future injuries.
    202(comp)--WR/KR-Joe Reed(258) -- Underrated receiver with good routes & + KR ability.
    218-----------CB-DeMarkus Acy(263) -- A Tall, long & moldable CB with attitude, PC will like him.

    UDFA's------CB(slot)-Kendle Vildor(NR), OLB-Willie g**(269), ILB-Logan Wilson(280),
    WR-Omar Bayless(446), TE-Luke Farrell(287), RB-James Robinson(252). (+ a developmental OT-????)
    :smilingalien:
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