Worse drafting results as the years go by?

It seems like we were able to make multiple picks into starting players within the first few years of PC/JS regime. Clearly that hasn't been the case.

The clearest theory for me is that PC has been further and further away from recruitment and the college game, so he doesn't have quite as much of an understanding on skill level coming from college.

There's a few different criteria which could be leading to this as well such as:
A) Worse draft picks due to better performance (we still stole players in the 3rd-5th rounds, so I'm not sure if this is valid).
B) Less starting spots are available now. (It was relatively easy to start in 2011 compared to now).
C) Worse draft classes the past two years? (I think 2013 was actually quite strong but we'll have to wait a year or two for the verdict (Marsh, KPL, PRich, and Britt all seem promising thus far but it's way too early).

I wonder if PC had a distinct advantage coming out of college where he had 4 years to scout players first hand, and that advantage is slightly dwindling.

lukerguy":242vnpso said:

I wonder if PC had a distinct advantage coming out of college where he had 4 years to scout players first hand, and that advantage is slightly dwindling.

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I think this is true.

Pete has even said as much, that he knew most of these kids in the draft because he recruited a lot of them. Now that he's four years removed from college I do think the playing field has leveled off a little, which is probably why our last two drafts haven't been nearly as successful as 2011 and 2012.

Its really not that bad. We've selected two offensive skill position players with our first pick in each of the last two year's drafts. They already have 176 yards of offense combined this season. That's almost 20 yards a game. Plus there was that one time when one of them almost scored.

I think you hit the nail on the head for the most part with your option B.

Those earlier drafts seemed to be packed because the players drafted were all better than the scrubs we were fielding in 2009. The more drafts PC and JS went through, the more open positions that got filled. Now, we're starting to face scenarios where the quality of player drafted may not be dropping off, but unseating a veteran with experience who has been coached up in the system for years is going to be a much more difficult task.

What about the argument that we got "lucky" by hitting homeruns on multiple late round players (that isn't to say there wasn't a ton of analysis that went into choosing the specific players but that common sense tells you there's a huge element of chance involved in how players will pan out) and as the years go on we are simply regressing back to the mean of how well a team with good analysis should fare in the draft. Similar to how a good black jack player can have big winning streaks from time to time, the more they play the more they will regress to the mean.

Outside of the top 5 (still sometimes busts) it's usually tough to draft anyways and what PC/JS did in drafting specific skill sets is why we saw immediate results IMO. He definitely did have an advantage early in the draft days though of at least being familiar with these players. I think by this point we don't have the glaring lack of talent at many positions we had in 2009 so it's difficult to draft players with specific interests as upgrades or at least ones that can make an immediate upgrade.

I do think this past draft netted us some serious talent though. KPL appears to be a future starter and hopefully Richardson and/or Norwood become solid starters. Britt has been struggling but we really threw him into the deep end with Miller injured, hopefully that isolation pays off down the road.

therealjohncarlson":2o5j7aw1 said:

What about the argument that we got "lucky" by hitting homeruns on multiple late round players (that isn't to say there wasn't a ton of analysis that went into choosing the specific players but that common sense tells you there's a huge element of chance involved in how players will pan out) and as the years go on we are simply regressing back to the mean of how well a team with good analysis should fare in the draft. Similar to how a good black jack player can have big winning streaks from time to time, the more they play the more they will regress to the mean.

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Luck does play a part, but to say it's entirely luck for Pete and John to hit on guys like Kam, Sherm, Doug, Wagner, KJ, Russell, etc isn't correct.

IMO it's like I said, these guys had some intimate knowledge of some or most of their early draft classes that every other NFL team just didn't have..........especially when it came to personal make up which Pete and John stress on draft day.

volsunghawk":2r225pgh said:

I think you hit the nail on the head for the most part with your option B.

Those earlier drafts seemed to be packed because the players drafted were all better than the scrubs we were fielding in 2009. The more drafts PC and JS went through, the more open positions that got filled. Now, we're starting to face scenarios where the quality of player drafted may not be dropping off, but unseating a veteran with experience who has been coached up in the system for years is going to be a much more difficult task.

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Great post Volsunghawk. Drafting players is a very difficult task. It's very hit or miss. After 2005 draft, lots of people thought Tim Ruskell was a genius. We all know what happened years thereafter.

I think because of a couple of whiffs its easy to see our drafts as less productive but I dont see that. Like has been said, part of it is that its hard to crack a quality roster, but even with this I think we are getting strong results.

2013:

We didnt have a first round pick.. 2nd round was Christine Michael. Dont want to get into that debate right now, but I think its at least to say we havent gotten value for that draft position.

3rd round..Jordan Hill. He is contributing, and may be about to show us his real value. With Mebane out he is going to get a lot more playing time. Previously I assumed it meant Williams was going to get asked to do much more..the last couple of days I think it might be more in Carrolls personality to give Hill most of the extra plays. Mebane, also a 3rd round pic, emerged under similar circumstances.. so this could be an even better pick than we think. We will see in the next 7 games.

5th round.. Simon. Just now getting playing time and arguably, and with a smaller body of work, has looked better than Maxwell. Early in the Season you saw Maxwell get picked on.. Simon hasnt had that happen to him and is more of the type Carroll seems to want in their outside CBs. I think Simon will be the clear starter by the end of the season.

5th round.. Luke Willson. Had a real bad game with lots of drops and is playing hurt now.. hasnt really made the jump we wanted when Miller went down..but for a 5th rounder has performed reasonably.

7th round Tackle Bowie. As a rookie he started at tackle almost half the season. Wasnt amazing, but got us through it . Cant ask much more of a 7th round rookie.

Undrafted we got Bailey, who started about half the season last season, has played multiple positions this year and started.

2014:

2nd round. Paul Richardson , WR. Just now getting going because of He Who Shall Not Be Named, but clearly this pick was foreshadowing.. I think he will come on in the second half of the season and has already given a spark as a KR, and shown he might be our guy who is able to "take the top off" defenses.

2nd round. Tackle Britt. Starting and you dont hear from him much. Cant ask more of a rookie tackle. Solidified a position that weve wanted to improve going back to 2007 or 2008.

didnt have a 3rd round pick..

4th round DE Marsh.. made the team.. seemed to just be a guy , now out. We will see what we have next year.

4th round WR Kevin Norwood. Looks like hes going to develop into a poor mans Boldin. Remember it took Golden Tate a couple years to really get good.. both he and Richardson are on schedule to be solid or better.

4th round Kevin Pierre Louis. Getting worked more and more into the game plan and flashing talent. Getting good pressure. As he learns the NFL level , that pressure will likely turn to sacks.

6th round Pinkins. He is red shirting this year but they kept him around so thats a positive.

And we of course got Brock Coyle, un drafted and he has already started a game at MLB and wasnt noticeable, again , a good sign for a MLB. Wasnt amazing but made his tackles and wasnt a liability. That qualifies as a steal for an undrafted player.

So, even though its too early to even grade 2013 and 2014 I think we are getting more value than we realize..

Voldemort..Voldemort..Volde...ouch.... :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

The young guys not playing MIGHT have a little something to do with the good players already playing their positions. With the injuries they've had, a lot of the young guys are actually getting playing time. They've also been drafting at the bottom of every round as opposed to the early years top half picks.

I'll just say that Jordan Matthews was my #1 target in the second round, but the Eagles drafted him three spots ahead of us. I will be using this in the future to show what a good talent-evaluator I am. That being said, I didn't know much about the picks we ended up with in 2014, but they have all contributed and I like where they are heading...this proves that JS is a great and deep talent-evaluator and we will be fine.

Frankly I don't think their drafting results are worse than before and believe Volsung nailed it, if one can truly say the return are diminishing.

The positions of critical need are easier to find for the most part earlier in the draft but each year the team has drafted they seem to be drafting later in the draft, either from results, or trades. Of course that too is double edged sword working against draft success even though JS likes pure volume to allow them to assess and control more bodies.

All in all I'd suggest the the team has done a better job drafting than most all of the other teams in the league. Could they be better? Of course, but so far I have few complaints though JS has rolled the dice pretty hard by trading early draft picks for players no longer here (i.e.: Harvin and TD Jesus). They have however not done too awful bad in FA though with Avril and Bennett. Go big or go home is something they believe in and taking calculated risks sometimes pays off but often doesn't, the good comes with the bad. The thing that is awesome about these guys is they seem to quickly recognize when a player doesn't fit or is near the end and they move them along. For the Harvin and Whitehurst mistakes they can be excused b/c they were swinging for the fence in both cases. Whitehurst still is a backup level QB in the league and ultimately Harvin was not willing to be a team player here thinking he was more important than the whole. The loss of a 1st, 2-3rds, and a 7th rd pick for these 2 guys was expensive but a roll of the dice for two players with high potential. Them striking out won't stop them from taking calculated risks on players going forward.

In all the team seems to find at least a few players each season worth keeping and developing. They bring the young guys along slowly were necessary and don't seemingly throw them totally to the wolves, some prove capable of playing full-time almost immediately. All in all save for the unexpectedly injury prone players their drafting results have been solid and actually exceptional with late picks.

At this point, I think it's fair to say they whiffed in 2013. Not to the same extent the Niners whiffed in 2012, but a whiff none-the-less. If you attribute Harvin to that draft, it's an even bigger disaster. I used to buy the "there's too much depth" argument, but right now, I don't think that draft has produced any legitimate starters regardless of that fact.

Simon probably has the most upside, but is that evaluation or just another example of Pete turning a raw DB into a legit player? Harper, Willson, and Michael were SPARQ heroes with lackluster college production. The FO tried to out-think the room with each of those picks. I think it's time to re-think that model of evaluation, at least with regard to offensive players. Hill is a fringe DL, and everyone else is either on another team or out of the league. Not great results. Getting Alvin Bailey as a UDFA was probably the best pick-up during that period - no joke.

Jury still out on 2014. Too soon to judge.

Suspect that you need to factor in actual positional need and incumbent place holders into the above assessment. Hill looks to be somewhat injury prone as clearly several other 2013 picks have proven to be i.e.: Williams who probably may never be able to play. Hill's clearly a backup player. To me Michael is still an unknown but he sure has flashed the few times he's had the ball, he has starter potential. Willson has shown he can play but is still learning his position, he shows he can catch at times but isn't that good in traffic yet, he's got starter level quality however. Simon to me is a clear win though he's been out with injuries a lot so far, I'm sure the team has figured him in their plans going forward, he may be the replacement for Maxwell if Maxie is lost in FA. Harper was a miss. Completely agree on Bailey.

My thinking is it is still pretty early to be writing off the 2013 draft picks as being a whiff. Each of them has had little opportunity to play with the positional depth in front of them, or because of injury. The nice thing about having a good team is the ability to allow the young players the opportunity to fairly learn their positions.

Logically speaking, the better your team gets, the harder to crack the roster...We are the reigning Super Bowl champions...

Just sayin'.....

How often do you see the best corner in the game come out of the 5th round? Looking over the history of the draft for all NFL teams, the Sherman pick is one that stands out like very few others. Wilson is a similar story. As is Kam, Baldwin, Maxwell, Bailey and Sweezy, to a lesser degree.

I think it's okay to say that Seattle is fantastic at drafting in the late rounds while also admitting that there was some luck involved too. Richard Sherman caliber players aren't available every year. He was a once in a generation find in the 5th round.

Good OP btw. But I will differ slightly in that I'm not yet convinced our 2013 and 2014 drafts were anything less than average.

In 2013, you had Michael, Hill, Simon, Willson and Bailey. Michael is a playmaker at RB who can turn small opportunities into big plays. Hill has been a serviceable DT in the rotation, at a position where being average is valuable. Simon has started off well, other than some dumb penalties. Willson is one of the most athletic TEs in the league, he's having a tough year with drops (something that wasn't a problem in college or as a rookie) but his talent for the H-back / TE hybrid position is obvious. Bailey looks like a UDFA steal. He'll probably be our LG for most of the next two seasons, and very well might replace Okung eventually.

In 2014, I'm very happy with the Richardson and Britt choices. Norwood and KPL have both looked very good in limited opportunities. Marsh looked like a piece of the puzzle before he was injured. Gilliam is far from a sure thing, but has good upside and seems like the kind of player worth keeping tabs on.

My only regret in the 2014 draft was that Seattle passed on some rather obvious big WR talent in Donte Moncrief and Martavis Bryant. This was a good year to draft a big WR, but Seattle went a different direction.

I would say no, only because I think the 2014 draft class is already better than the 2013 class.

Britt has played a little better than Bowie did last year, and he appears to be a long-term starter if he can improve in pass pro.

Kevin Pierre-Louis has looked excellent to me in all phases of the game. He could see even more reps next year if Smith is not re-signed. He could easily be plugged in as a starter.

Norwood and Richardson have looked good so far; we just haven't seen the production yet.

Marsh and Pinkins are wild cards, who could turn out be really good next season. I'm not that optimistic about Staten, but we will see.

Tharold Simon has been the best player from the 2013 class, and he didn't even play last year.

With the number of picks in next year's class, I bet it will be better than either '13 or '14.

Regarding Pete's USC connection, it had a little to do with Baldwin and Sherman, it had a lot to do with the Bruce Irvin picks and Harvin trade. It got us some USC linebackers super cheap.

I've learned that the draft is less about who the team picks and more about the team that's taking the player. There are certain organizations that are graveyards for QBs, for example. Sanchez goes to the Jets and looks horrible. He goes to Chip Kelly's Eagles and looks very good. Would Sherman be THIS good if he didn't pair with a DB genius like Pete Carroll? Would he have even gotten much of a shot elsewhere?

Rather than grade the players, we should be grading our coaching staff for finding their kind of guys. And for the most part, I think they have, with some extra luck on their side in 2010-2012.

Some of it requires waiting too. Maxwell looked like just a special teams guy before 2013. Sweezy took a couple of years to become a complete guard.

We've seen this ability to find the right kind of players in FA and trades as well. There is no team in the league who fits Marshawn Lynch better than Carroll's Seahawks. The FA/trade acquisitions on the DL have made it one of the league's better units. It seems like a pretty good chunk of this team was built off the scrap heap by a coaching staff that knew exactly what they were looking for.

rideaducati":s9am5gig said:

The young guys not playing MIGHT have a little something to do with the good players already playing their positions. With the injuries they've had, a lot of the young guys are actually getting playing time. They've also been drafting at the bottom of every round as opposed to the early years top half picks.

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I think this POV is exactly right.
Some expectations are actually unrealistic, as an example, who IN THE LEAGUE would you play instead of Marshawn Lynch? = NOBODY, that's who.
Who on this team do you play by Committee along with Turbin when ML is no longer on the Team? = -> C-Michaels <-.
I don't think there's a man Jack in here that has anywhere near the insight and Moxie at finding talent that Pete Carroll has.
He might have admitted that he's no longer as in touch with the talent that is out there as he was when he was recruiting players for College, but that doesn't mean that he doesn't recognize talent when he sees it.
AND, like you said, "They've also been drafting at the bottom of every round".
With all the injuries in the last few Months, 6 & 3 is actually a damned good measure for showing how much talent that Pete and his Coaching staff have gotten out of the late round players.