When the temperature is 32 degrees or colder at kickoff, Peyton Manning's career record is 4-7. That's a 36.4 winning percentage. In all other games -- meaning, warmer games -- his winning percentage is 69.3 percent (174-77). He played most of his career at Indianapolis, in a dome. Hence the enormous disparity between games in 32 degrees or colder (11) and all other games (151).
Manning's completion percentage in the cold is roughly 5 percentage points lower than his career rate, and his passing yardage is close to 50 yards per game below average.
In other words, since 1998 he has played what...11 games in 32 degree or colder...
According to ESPN today "This year's Super Bowl in East Rutherford, N.J. is expected to be colder. Super Bowl Sunday will feature a high of 37 degrees and a low of 25, with a possibility of rain and snow showers, according to the latest AccuWeather forecast."
Statistician Nate Silver went back 20 years to look at the chances of weather on Feb 2nd:
http://espn.go.com/new-york/nfl/story/_ ... owl-xlviii
He says that if he had to put, he would bet on wind, with a 31% chance of winds 15 Mph or higher.
Last year, on the same day, the temp was between 26 and 32 degrees in East Rutherford with 4 Mph winds.