PFF: Luck not top 10

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2 ... s-for-now/

While Luck has shown himself to be capable of impressive late-game drives, he still has too many plays every season that simply leave you scratching your head – mistakes that put him in position to have to lead comeback attempts in the first place. He has improved on this with each season, but he still has room to grow to become the quarterback he is capable of being – and frankly, the quarterback he is already credited with being.

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What a breath of fresh air to hear an analyst tell it like we've always called it here on .Net This guy was annointed by the media day one. We all saw it. We all saw RW have to work for every accolade he earned. Meanwhile, Luck was being given accolades for being a QB that he wasn't.

RW, on their poll, was ranked 9th.

SalishHawkFan":28333k6x said:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/08/26/why-andrew-luck-ranks-outside-our-top-10-qbs-for-now/

While Luck has shown himself to be capable of impressive late-game drives, he still has too many plays every season that simply leave you scratching your head – mistakes that put him in position to have to lead comeback attempts in the first place. He has improved on this with each season, but he still has room to grow to become the quarterback he is capable of being – and frankly, the quarterback he is already credited with being.

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What a breath of fresh air to hear an analyst tell it like we've always called it here on .Net This guy was annointed by the media day one. We all saw it. We all saw RW have to work for every accolade he earned. Meanwhile, Luck was being given accolades for being a QB that he wasn't.

RW, on their poll, was ranked 9th.

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Wow, that's a first.

Theres also this from the article...something people on here who want Luck should be mindful for whenever they comment on if Luck was QB instead of Wilson

Another area that matters in our rating systems is a QB’s performance when facing pressure from opposing defenses. Luck finished with a negative grade against pressure last season, completing just 47.8 percent of passes – a fact that was likely obscured for most by his 14-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio when under pressure.

WilsonMVP":1zk7hrbk said:

Theres also this from the article...something people on here who want Luck should be mindful for whenever they comment on if Luck was QB instead of Wilson

Another area that matters in our rating systems is a QB’s performance when facing pressure from opposing defenses. Luck finished with a negative grade against pressure last season, completing just 47.8 percent of passes – a fact that was likely obscured for most by his 14-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio when under pressure.

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And that has been playing against the worst defenses in the league and in the worst division in football. You have to wonder what his stats look like if he were playing our schedule the last three years.

I disagree with analyses which overstate or understate Luck. First, I think the NCAA screwed him out of a well-deserved Heisman. While he's not #1, and has clearly played some crap playoff ball, he has many of Russell's attributes. In fact I believe he is the competition for 4th Qtr comebacks and wins.

I just don't think there are 10 QBs in the NFL which are better than Luck, which means he is at least #10 by default. Not counting Wilson, clearly Rodgers, Brady, and Brees are better. I don't even know that Peyton is better anymore, while Eli is hard to rate due to his bizarre postseason greatness and regular season suckitude. Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Philip Rivers might be better. That's about all I can come up with.

Playing poorly for 3 quarters and then leading a comeback is a statistical sin, but not a football sin. That is where PFF is wrong.
Playing poorly in the playoffs and losing in a football sin, one Luck has had in spades. I heard Gil brandt call him the 2nd best QB in the league last night. I just about choked on my beer and wrecked my car. 2nd best? Dude looked like a chump getting his ass kicked by the Patriots.

The playoffs are really the most telling because he is then playing against real competition. Getting to them has been gifted from lack of real competition.

In the NFC west the Colts are battling the Rams for last place and Luck gets exposed against the defenses. His stats would be more reflective of his playoff stats now.

I think the myth he has zero talent around him is starting to wear off and he is finally starting to get critiqued by his play rather than by the media hype.

He is a very good QB. Just not the guy we were sold since his junior year of college and force fed since entering the NFL.

RichNhansom":gyh8s1pb said:

The playoffs are really the most telling because he is then playing against real competition. Getting to them has been gifted from lack of real competition.

In the NFC west the Colts are battling the Rams for last place and Luck gets exposed against the defenses. His stats would be more reflective of his playoff stats now.

I think the myth he has zero talent around him is starting to wear off and he is finally starting to get critiqued by his play rather than by the media hype.

He is a very good QB. Just not the guy we were sold since his junior year of college and force fed since entering the NFL.

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If the Colts werent in the playoffs these last 3 years I think Luck would be viewed WAY WAY different. The 3 other teams in that division have been mostly terrible since Luck has been in the Division. In the 48 games in the past 3 years the Jags have won 8, Titans have won 15, and Texans have won 23 games. That would be a 46-144 record by those 3 teams and the QB play outside of maybe 2012 Texans has been awful. They have 27 wins outside the division


Even with making the playoffs though its not like hes lit the world on fire..In fact..he might be the worst QB in the entire NFL in the playoffs right now.

6 Games
147/260 56.5%
1829 Yards
9TD
12 INT
70.8 QB rating


Contrast that with Russ
8 Games
123/202 60.9%
1820 yards
12 TD
6 INT (although 1 of them was at the end of the Atlanta game so I wouldnt exactly count that one)
97.8 QB rating

I personally thought that as a rookie and through some of his second year Luck was REALLY overrated. He's really worked to develop his game and won me over, though. I think a lot of the things that he gets criticized for are actually the cost of doing business when developing new abilities as a player, particularly at the QB position. Coming out of Harbaugh's hyper-regimented offense I wasn't sure he could make that leap, but he's been doing it and at this point I think I've mostly been proven wrong. It's not fully reflected in the stat sheets yet, but at his age it's the progress you want to see, and he's shown that in spades whereas some other talented young QBs (e.g. Cam) haven't really developed and might just be who they are.


Now for the other comment that won't win me any fans here :lol: :

The Andrew Luck disdain from some on .net, to me, is one of the last vestiges of the Hawks-fan/Seattle-sports Victim Complex that has largely been scrubbed away over the last few years due to the Seahawks' unequestionable talent and greatness.

Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson are not in an epic battle to the death over praise, as praise is not a finite resource.

Given how much (very well deserved) praise the Hawks and Wilson get, the disdain expressed here by SOME people for the national media complimenting Luck's abilit just comes off as really misguided and petty, IMO. It harkens back to an earlier victim complex that just isn't that relevant anymore.

Basically, I TOTALLY get how and why it happens, but it's kind of anachronistic at this point, and makes me crinkle my nose a bit.

WilsonMVP":23icuacf said:

RichNhansom":23icuacf said:

The playoffs are really the most telling because he is then playing against real competition. Getting to them has been gifted from lack of real competition.

In the NFC west the Colts are battling the Rams for last place and Luck gets exposed against the defenses. His stats would be more reflective of his playoff stats now.

I think the myth he has zero talent around him is starting to wear off and he is finally starting to get critiqued by his play rather than by the media hype.

He is a very good QB. Just not the guy we were sold since his junior year of college and force fed since entering the NFL.

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If the Colts werent in the playoffs these last 3 years I think Luck would be viewed WAY WAY different. The 3 other teams in that division have been mostly terrible since Luck has been in the Division. In the 48 games in the past 3 years the Jags have won 8, Titans have won 15, and Texans have won 23 games. That would be a 46-144 record by those 3 teams and the QB play outside of maybe 2012 Texans has been awful. They have 27 wins outside the division


Even with making the playoffs though its not like hes lit the world on fire..In fact..he might be the worst QB in the entire NFL in the playoffs right now.

6 Games
147/260 56.5%
1829 Yards
9TD
12 INT
70.8 QB rating


Contrast that with Russ
8 Games
123/202 60.9%
1820 yards
12 TD
6 INT (although 1 of them was at the end of the Atlanta game so I wouldnt exactly count that one)
97.8 QB rating

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:sarcasm_on: It is obvious that Luck is better by the stats blocked. It took Russell 2 more games to not even equal Luck's success. :sarcasm_off: Sorry, saw the shot, there was no danger...so I took it. :stirthepot: :twisted: :twisted:

Scottemojo":7up6keww said:

Playing poorly for 3 quarters and then leading a comeback is a statistical sin, but not a football sin. That is where PFF is wrong.
Playing poorly in the playoffs and losing in a football sin, one Luck has had in spades. I heard Gil brandt call him the 2nd best QB in the league last night. I just about choked on my beer and wrecked my car. 2nd best? Dude looked like a chump getting his ass kicked by the Patriots.

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I hate when people cite fantasy football as something that is ruining the game, but in this case, fantasy football is what has driven the Luck hype to the next stage.

One of the things I cause about PFF and they way they look at things is they are more objective about negative play.

For instance it's too simplistic to measure based on yardage , TDs etc.

A negative play has IMO a huge impact ; perhaps more than a positive play

It removes ability for O to score
It switches opportunity
Increases pressure on the O to "make something happen " and so on.

I think that's one of the keys for the Seahawks evaluations and the PC philosophy. Reduce mistakes and pressure opposition offense leading to mistakes

Popeyejones":hhxfz7dk said:

I personally thought that as a rookie and through some of his second year Luck was REALLY overrated. He's really worked to develop his game and won me over, though. I think a lot of the things that he gets criticized for are actually the cost of doing business when developing new abilities as a player, particularly at the QB position. Coming out of Harbaugh's hyper-regimented offense I wasn't sure he could make that leap, but he's been doing it and at this point I think I've mostly been proven wrong. It's not fully reflected in the stat sheets yet, but at his age it's the progress you want to see, and he's shown that in spades whereas some other talented young QBs (e.g. Cam) haven't really developed and might just be who they are.


Now for the other comment that won't win me any fans here :lol: :

The Andrew Luck disdain from some on .net, to me, is one of the last vestiges of the Hawks-fan/Seattle-sports Victim Complex that has largely been scrubbed away over the last few years due to the Seahawks' unequestionable talent and greatness.

Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson are not in an epic battle to the death over praise, as praise is not a finite resource.

Given how much (very well deserved) praise the Hawks and Wilson get, the disdain expressed here by SOME people for the national media complimenting Luck's abilit just comes off as really misguided and petty, IMO. It harkens back to an earlier victim complex that just isn't that relevant anymore.

Basically, I TOTALLY get how and why it happens, but it's kind of anachronistic at this point, and makes me crinkle my nose a bit.

Click to expand...

I could see why you would say that but I think it has more to do with just simple over hype and it wouldn't be near as bad if his performance actually backed up the hype but so far (like you said above) that stats don't reflect it. Keep in mind this guy has been touted as the next Manning from when he was still in college and since being in the NFL all we have heard are excuses. If you believed the media hype then not a single player on his roster would start on another NFL team.

Sure we get butthurt when we here the same media saying Wilson is only successful because of the supporting cast while completely ignoring playoff performance and division opponent and schedule played since being in the league but I think that is pretty normal. You guys aren't doing the same because Kaep is not talked about in these discussions unless it gets around to what ever happened to him. Keap is being compared to Dalton and Newton and your fan base does plenty to challenge that notion but the difference is that the media isn't forcing those guys down your throat when they don't deserve it. Most of your fan base still believes Kaep is a better QB than Wilson and you see the level of hate and disdain your fan base has for him.

I think the crux of your post is an attempt to call us petty and put yourself and fellow fans on some kind of pedestal so I take it with a grain of salt.

Don't get me wrong. I think Luck is improving and may one day be the best in the game and most people acknowledge that but he definitely is not there yet. To me it is refreshing to actually see some real analysis like the quoted. It is refreshing.

I think it is fair to say, though, that if Luck, RG3, Kaepernick, Foles, and others all falter and/or fail, critics will be forced to praise Wilson. If both he and Tannehill have more impressive seasons, a lot of people will have egg on their faces.

Threedee":16ov8mqo said:

I think it is fair to say, though, that if Luck, RG3, Kaepernick, Foles, and others all falter and/or fail, critics will be forced to praise Wilson. If both he and Tannehill have more impressive seasons, a lot of people will have egg on their faces.

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No. They would say "too bad the others don't have Wilsons supporting cast. Any of the other qb's would make Seattle even better if they played there."

Popeyejones":2rw6rbc3 said:

I personally thought that as a rookie and through some of his second year Luck was REALLY overrated. He's really worked to develop his game and won me over, though. I think a lot of the things that he gets criticized for are actually the cost of doing business when developing new abilities as a player, particularly at the QB position. Coming out of Harbaugh's hyper-regimented offense I wasn't sure he could make that leap, but he's been doing it and at this point I think I've mostly been proven wrong. It's not fully reflected in the stat sheets yet, but at his age it's the progress you want to see, and he's shown that in spades whereas some other talented young QBs (e.g. Cam) haven't really developed and might just be who they are.

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Anyone that thinks Cam has not improved has not watched every game and play he's played for four years. Period. And that's no slight on you or your intelligence because most people haven't, just a fact. Cam also only played one full year of big time college football and didn't grow up with a dad that played in the NFL like Luck so to think that Cam's not gonna grow even more is not a bet I would make if I were you. He may not ever be the most accurate passer but Michael Jordan wasn't the most accurate jump shooter either. Not to mention that, surprise, Cam's got a higher completion % than Luck.

The tsunami of obstacles Cam overcame in 2014 are what they are, but didn't stop him from having the worst rating of his career at home against the Saints when a guy was playing LT that had never played a football game in America named David Foucault. He's got another huge obstacle now to overcome without Benjamin. Nonetheless, even Cam's worst game ever was not as bad as the last game Luck played, against a Patriots team a healthy Cam ran around, over, and through two years ago on MNF with Ted Ginn being the star (who else can make Ginn look good at WR?).

RichNhansom":1r64mr8h said:

I could see why you would say that but I think it has more to do with just simple over hype and it wouldn't be near as bad if his performance actually backed up the hype but so far (like you said above) that stats don't reflect it. Keep in mind this guy has been touted as the next Manning from when he was still in college and since being in the NFL all we have heard are excuses. If you believed the media hype then not a single player on his roster would start on another NFL team.

Sure we get butthurt when we here the same media saying Wilson is only successful because of the supporting cast while completely ignoring playoff performance and division opponent and schedule played since being in the league but I think that is pretty normal.

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On the 2014 Colts.. how many of their players would have started in Seattle?

The only one I think is a lock is T.Y. Hilton. Perhaps Dwayne Allen, but only because Zach Miller was injured. MAYBE Gosder Cherilus over Britt at RT. Even that is a stretch.

That's it.

I agree that Wilson deserves a bit more credit in spite of the surrounding cast of players he has been fortunate enough to play with, but I don't think you realize how much better Andrew Luck makes that Colts team. Yes their division is terrible for the most part. But they won two playoff games and made it to the AFC Championship.

I mean FFS .. THIS was their starting running back last season. They traded a 1st rounder for him!



I'm sorry but you cannot tell me that Andrew Luck wouldn't be incredibly successful in Seattle if he and Russell Wilson swapped places. Wilson would probably have the Colts in the playoffs too.. but would also run into the same problems Luck does.

Hasselbeck":2fm9t5l6 said:

RichNhansom":2fm9t5l6 said:

I could see why you would say that but I think it has more to do with just simple over hype and it wouldn't be near as bad if his performance actually backed up the hype but so far (like you said above) that stats don't reflect it. Keep in mind this guy has been touted as the next Manning from when he was still in college and since being in the NFL all we have heard are excuses. If you believed the media hype then not a single player on his roster would start on another NFL team.

Sure we get butthurt when we here the same media saying Wilson is only successful because of the supporting cast while completely ignoring playoff performance and division opponent and schedule played since being in the league but I think that is pretty normal.

Click to expand...

On the 2014 Colts.. how many of their players would have started in Seattle?

The only one I think is a lock is T.Y. Hilton. Perhaps Dwayne Allen, but only because Zach Miller was injured. MAYBE Gosder Cherilus over Britt at RT. Even that is a stretch.

That's it.

I agree that Wilson deserves a bit more credit in spite of the surrounding cast of players he has been fortunate enough to play with, but I don't think you realize how much better Andrew Luck makes that Colts team. Yes their division is terrible for the most part. But they won two playoff games and made it to the AFC Championship.

I mean FFS .. THIS was their starting running back last season. They traded a 1st rounder for him!



I'm sorry but you cannot tell me that Andrew Luck wouldn't be incredibly successful in Seattle if he and Russell Wilson swapped places. Wilson would probably have the Colts in the playoffs too.. but would also run into the same problems Luck does.

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AFCC game compliments of AZ without a QB, on a huge down slide back to reality and against Denver when Manning couldn't throw the ball 5 yards. That was a gift wrapped delivery to the AFCC game. The Rams would have looked more impressive. How did they do once they face a real team in that AFCC game?

As for players not able to make the Seattle team? We don't know really but how did Beathea do on the Niners? He was seen as garbage and washed up in Indy and made the probowl and significantly improve the 9ers secondary last year. I am willing to compare other real examples if you know of other starters in Indy that left and failed somewhere else but I am not familiar with any.

Your buying into the hype that Luck has zero talent around him. Remember his GM was named executive of the year and supposedly for putting talent around Luck. What ever happened to that talent?

I get why people love him and I don;t blame them but the hype is where I have a problem. I'm not saying he is a scrub. Actually the opposite but the hype surrounding him is nauseating.

Hasselbeck, we get it; you think Andrew Luck should be ranked 0 because being ranked 1 would be an insult since it implies there's even competition against Luck the God.

RichNhansom":mtvuf13v said:

As for players not able to make the Seattle team? We don't know really but how did Beathea do on the Niners? He was seen as garbage and washed up in Indy and made the probowl and significantly improve the 9ers secondary last year. I am willing to compare other real examples if you know of other starters in Indy that left and failed somewhere else but I am not familiar with any.

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You REALLY think Bethea is getting into the starting lineup when the Seahawks have the two best safeties in football? Come....... on....

Your quote.. again was..

"Sure we get butthurt when we here (sic) the same media saying Wilson is only successful because of the supporting cast.."

This isn't about what Colts starters could start elsewhere in the league. You are directly comparing Andrew Luck to Russell Wilson so lets directly compare the two rosters. The ONLY slam dunk without a shadow of a doubt player last year that would have started over what we had was T.Y. Hilton. After that.. Wilson literally had a better player at EVERY position.

RichNhansom":mtvuf13v said:

Your buying into the hype that Luck has zero talent around him. Remember his GM was named executive of the year and supposedly for putting talent around Luck. What ever happened to that talent?

I get why people love him and I don;t blame them but the hype is where I have a problem. I'm not saying he is a scrub. Actually the opposite but the hype surrounding him is nauseating.

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Not saying the Colts have zero talent. They have talented WR's, Vontae Davis is a great corner.. and they have pieces elsewhere.. but they are far from the most talented team in that conference. On paper, I am taking NE, Denver, Pittsburgh and Baltimore's rosters over Indy's. Indy does indeed benefit from a poor division, but Andrew Luck is the reason that team isn't the AFC version of Carolina winning a division with a losing record.