NFC West week 6 Edition

After week 5:
Cardinals 4-1
Rams 2-3* Tiebreaker over Seattle (Bye Week)
Hawks 2-3
49ers 1-4

DVOA Rankings: Versus
Overall DVOA OFF DEF ST
#2 Arizona 51.5% #3 #3 # 6 #5 Pittsburgh
#9 Seattle 11.7% #14 #12 #1 #11 Carolina
#18 Stl -3.3% #30 #6 #2 BYE BYE BYE
#32 SF -40.8% #29 #31 #25 #16 Baltimore

The Lines
AZ -3
Sea -7
SF +2.5

ELO Says:
Pitts 56% AZ 44% -1.5
SEA 66% CAR 34% -4.5
SF 52% BAL 48% -0.5

The Cardinals will be visiting the Steelers this week on the road in what appears to be gloomy weather in the mid 40s at kickoff in what should be one of the most hostile stadiums this visit this week. Big Ben has not been ruled out yet and apparently was throwing passes with a leg brace on last week and was seen hopping up and down the sidelines in SD. If Michael Vick is the starting QB I have to like the Cardinals odds in this game. I think we try to make Vick beat us with his arm in this game so the key is going to be stop Bell early on during 1st downs. I would have to think our Offense can have moderate success against this defense as we have a lot of firepower at every skill position this year and since Iupati came in we are having a lot of great rushes coming off that left side with him and Veldheer. One thing that is overlooked is how poor our punting is. Butler finished 32nd out of all Punters last year and again is taking the honors this year. I don't expect the cold weather to help. I think we win this one in a close one 27-23 with our defense requiring a late stop to seal the victory.

The Rams will have the week off and will likely concede 2nd place in the division this week. Thoughts Rex?

The Seahawks are doing the long con this year much like last year and will be hosting the Carolina Panthers. Now the Panthers I feel are the real definition of a paper tiger. They are 4-0 against the worst 4 teams in the league. Not only are they 4-0, the poor opposition they have faced has out-gained them in ypg and has more first downs as well as a better third down conversion rate. The Panthers have also given up more sacks then they've gotten. Luckily for them they have a plus +8TO ratio. When you look at the big picture it is pretty telling. The offense is ranked 25th when it comes to moving the ball and they are going up against what I feel is a top 5 defense

I think this will be a classic Seattle game. Close in the first half. Flood gates open in the second. Panthers leave with a reality check. 20-10 Seahawks.

The 49ers will be hosting the Ravens and the Ravens are a mess right now. I don't really have a lot to say about the two teams at this time because both have a had a few moments of highs with some pretty low lows. However I have to go with the home team this week and say SF 20-17 but who knows what you can really expect in this game.

PLAYER
RedAlice 14-6
KEARLY 14-6
RINGLESS 14-6
Hawksfansinceday1 14-6
drdiags 13-3
POPEYEJONES 12-8
Fade 12-8
Shadowhawk 11-9
Mizzou 11-9
Hasselbeck 11-9
REX 10-6
greenblue_eye's2 9-3
ClutchDJ 9-7
UNCLE SI 8-4
Erebus 7-5
Superman28 7-6
SF49er 6-12
Marvin49 5-5
Kearly 4-0
b8rtm8nn 4-4
SALISHHAWKFAN 3-5
Laloosh 2-6
Largent80 2-2
hawk45 2-2
London 12 1-3
SeahawksTopGear: 1-3
SPORTS HERNIA 0-4
ELCALIENTE 0-4

I'm waiting to know if Rapistberger plays before submitting my picks.

Current record: 13-3

Cardinals at Steelers: I figured the Steelers would lose against the Chargers, because Vick is not as dynamic as he once was. He showed some spark but I have the Cards winning this game. If Big Ben plays, that would be a nice shoot-out since Vick has made Antonio Brown a non-factor (sort of like the Graham story here). Since Big Ben's status is up in the air, I take the Cards.

Cards 5-1

Panthers at Seattle: The Panthers get Luke back, while the Seahawks may be without Wagner and Hill (most likely). Cam played well early in last year's Playoff game here so I don't expect he will get rattled plus the 12s probably are still in shock at what they are seeing out of the team. Hopefully they snap out of it and bring the noise. Should be a close game but I am going Seattle.

Seattle 3-3

Rams: Bye 2-3

Ravens at 9ers: San Fran showed some spark at NY in a heartbreaking loss. The Ravens are a mystery to me. The loss of Suggs must have taken quite a bit out of them because some of their losses are mind-boggling. Both QBs could have great stats after this one is over but right now I am going to take the 9ers. I just don't know what is up with the Ravens so I am going with the home team.

9ers: 2-4

Not only do I think Carolina is actually average team at best. I think this week Seattle will show a lot of urgency and fire. There is no way they drop this game considering the playoff implications for a WC spot. A loss would put them 3.5 games back from Carolina, and at best 2 Games back in the division. I just don't see any way that is even a possibility. I feel they go on a tear again starting this week similar to last year.

ringless":34wg2a3a said:

The Rams will have the week off and will likely concede 2nd place in the division this week. Thoughts Rex?

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Well my feathered friend all I can say is it is schedule induced and temporary. :mrgreen:

Good games this weekend

AZ wins (homer)

SEA wins (barely)

49ers win in an upset special, ugly game

Rams beat the bye

I'm done picking against the Cardinals.

Seahawks win.

Ravens beat the Niners because someone has to win the game.

I'll be rooting for the Steelers like crazy though. I don't think the Cardinals will be able to stop Bell (nobody can). Vick will make a few plays and keep the game close, but the Cardinals come up with a timely turn over and win 31-20.

I'm with ramfan .. I'm picking Arizona every week. :lol:

Cards over Steelers - 10 AM thing be damned
Seahawks over Panthers - ugly game, but will eventually do enough to get the W
Niners over Ravens - Just think the Ravens are this years "bad luck team"
Bye week over Rams - Typical Fisher let down

Hasselbeck":379tn5c8 said:

Bye week over Rams - Typical Fisher let down

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:141847_bnono:

Arizona @ Pittsburgh--If Roethlisberger were healthy I would take a Steelers team that is remembering how to win games. Without him I think the Cardinals are too tough of a draw, even in Pittsburgh. Cardinals 31, Steelers 24

Carolina @ Seattle--The Panthers are not as good as their record would suggest. The Seahawks actually looked like their old selves (circa 2013) for three quarters before looking like their older selves (circa 2009) when it counted, and I think they can build off of the good and take motivation from the pitiful. Seahawks 27, Panthers 13

Baltimore @ San Francisco--Kinda glad this will be on at the same time I'll be at the CLink so I won't have to watch it. Tempted to give it to San Francisco because of the home field advantage, but then I remembered it's Santa Clara: what homefield advantage? Ravens 13, 49ers 10

Stealers win
Seahawks win
49ers win

Cardinals beat a a Vick-led Steelers. I'll update this one if Rapes plays.

Seahawks beat a Panthers team which at this point is at or below replacement level talent for the offensive skill positions beyond Cam Newton. And the Hawks are at home, and people will mistakenly treat this win as the Hawks having righted the ship.

The hot mess 9ers beat the hot mess Ravens simply because they're playing at home, if Forsett doesn't play and Hyde does play. I'll update this one too.

Cards win
Hawks win
Niners win

Not optimistic at all picking the SC Niners. But they looked ok against GB at times and Baltimore isn't close to being on par with GB. Ultimately I'm going with the home team.

Close game between Carolina and SEA. Had this game been in CAR, I'd pick the panthers. Hawks always tough at home.

Cards... I'm just not picking against them unless they play a top four team on the road.

Cards win. 5-1
Hawks win. 3-3
49ers Lose. 1-5

The Steelers defense has been playing better now that they don't have the #1 offense in the league to bail them out. Still, you have to pick the Cardinals in this game barring an insanely uncharacteristic game from Carson Palmer.

Hawks own the Panthers. I would be SHOCKED if Seattle lost.

49ers-Ravens is really tough to call. The Ravens aren't healthy, but they might not need to be. The 49ers are ranked 31st in passer rating against, and their run defense in home games is also one of the worst in the league. Kamar Aiken and Buck Allen are decent replacements for Smith Sr. and Forsett. Baltimore's run defense is league average on the road, so I think the hope for the 49ers is that Kaep can shred a below average Raven's pass D.

On paper this is a toss up game, but I'd also point out that John Harbaugh is WAY better of a coach than Jim Tomsula and that will factor. The Ravens are 1-4 but their opponents this season are a combined 17-8 and Baltimore has been in every game, their biggest margin of defeat all year was by six points at Denver.

I don't think Baltimore will continue to lose 80% of their close games, and they have a pretty big edge over SF in DVOA. This game might also come down to who is more desperate, and Baltimore strikes me as the more desperate team. I get why so many are picking the 49ers, gut feel leans that way, but the more I look at the numbers the more I think Vegas is right for picking Baltimore.

Cards win. Vick's passing attempts will be limited against the Cards secondary that leads the league with 11 INTs & Bell can't win this game by himself.

Seahawks win. Like the comments before me, Carolina is the worst 4-0 team, there's no debating that. Honestly this is a must win game at home for the Hawks, they won't disappoint.

Ravens win. Because nobody is as dysfunctional as the 9ers.

Hasselbeck":kbgv4i1n said:

I'm with ramfan .. I'm picking Arizona every week. :lol:

Cards over Steelers - 10 AM thing be damned
Seahawks over Panthers - ugly game, but will eventually do enough to get the W
Niners over Ravens - Just think the Ravens are this years "bad luck team"
Bye week over Rams - Typical Fisher let down

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Haha. Back in the dark times (worst 5 year stretch), once or twice we suffered an injury during the bye week and said "wow we even lose to the bye week". Back then you had to find something to laugh about..

Assuming Rapistberger doesn't play (and if he does I will edit later)..........

Cards by 4 over Stealers

Hawks by 4 over Panthers

Ravens by 2 over 9ers

CardsForever":1ljjay4w said:

Carolina is the worst 4-0 team, there's no debating that.

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No debate? Let's try. The Panthers have won their last 8 regular season games and 9 of their last 10 overall. The only loss they had more yards, first downs, and TOP than the Hawks. They have more net points than the Broncos and Denver hasn't been without a player the caliber of Luke Kuechly. Preseason or not, they were the better team than the Patriots in the dress rehearsal 3rd preseason game (starters vs starters). Might not matter much, but even the Hawks said this mattered in the Super Bowl rematch vs Denver in that they knew they were better. Hell the Panthers even beat the Patriots in their last regular season matchup. No debate?

ctrcat":wdvvy2gz said:

CardsForever":wdvvy2gz said:

Carolina is the worst 4-0 team, there's no debating that.

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No debate? Let's try. The Panthers have won their last 8 regular season games and 9 of their last 10 overall. The only loss they had more yards, first downs, and TOP than the Hawks. They have more net points than the Broncos and Denver hasn't been without a player the caliber of Luke Kuechly. Preseason or not, they were the better team than the Patriots in the dress rehearsal 3rd preseason game (starters vs starters). Might not matter much, but even the Hawks said this mattered in the Super Bowl rematch vs Denver in that they knew they were better. Hell the Panthers even beat the Patriots in their last regular season matchup. No debate?

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Agree.. I think Denver is a bigger facade than the Panthers.

Hasselbeck":aqfyp91l said:

ctrcat":aqfyp91l said:

CardsForever":aqfyp91l said:

Carolina is the worst 4-0 team, there's no debating that.

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No debate? Let's try. The Panthers have won their last 8 regular season games and 9 of their last 10 overall. The only loss they had more yards, first downs, and TOP than the Hawks. They have more net points than the Broncos and Denver hasn't been without a player the caliber of Luke Kuechly. Preseason or not, they were the better team than the Patriots in the dress rehearsal 3rd preseason game (starters vs starters). Might not matter much, but even the Hawks said this mattered in the Super Bowl rematch vs Denver in that they knew they were better. Hell the Panthers even beat the Patriots in their last regular season matchup. No debate?

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Agree.. I think Denver is a bigger facade than the Panthers.

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Thank you.