So...what kind of contract is Luck going to get?

Before the season, everyone thought whatever Russ got was going to be outdone be Luck.

But he shit the bed in a big way this season before going out with a lacerated kidney. So what does he get?

Yea..if it was someone like Kirk Cousins this type of year would have killed his value, but since everyone has decided Luck really is the Messiah, despite the objective evidence.. he will still break the bank. Indy cant let him walk and he has no reason to not get every penny.

Sam Bradford has asked for $25millions per year. Yes, that Sam Bradford ... who has never played a full season.

Vetamur":18i74e65 said:

despite the objective evidence.. he will still break the bank.

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:lol:

Last year he had a bad 7 games before getting knocked out. The year before that he put up 43 TDs and over 5K yards, and he's still 26 years old.

If you can't understand the objective evidence for why he's going to get paid it's a problem with you, not with him, IMO.

^^^^

1) You're shifting the terms of the conversation from if there are objective reasons why he'll get paid a lot to reasons why you prefer Wilson to him as a QB.

2) As I've said before, I'm not much interested in debating the ins and outs of Luck's game with Seahawks fans, as 9 times out of 10 the conversation I want to have about Andrew Luck is always secretly for Hawks fans actually a conversation about Russell Wilson. As I've said before it's a comparison and imagined slight that almost exclusively resides within the minds of Hawks fans, and I really don't see any upside in debating it as 1) personally I don't find it that interesting and 2) I have better things to do than to spend an afternoon pushing a rock up a mountain. :lol: They're both really good. What of it?

Popeyejones":1k75icac said:

Vetamur":1k75icac said:

despite the objective evidence.. he will still break the bank.

Click to expand...

:lol:

Last year he had a bad 7 games before getting knocked out. The year before that he put up 43 TDs and over 5K yards, and he's still 26 years old.

If you can't understand the objective evidence for why he's going to get paid it's a problem with you, not with him, IMO.

Click to expand...

7 bad games.. yep. This year he was a bottom 3 QB, with multiple INTs in 5 of the 7 games.

5000 yards? Literally any quarterback can do that given enough attempts.

How many multiple interception games? How many of "amazing" comebacks were because he put up 4 INTs in the first place?

He completes less than 60% of his passes. Career passing rating of 85. In the playoffs his passing rating is 70.

He threw 40, not 43 tds last year..unless youre counting playoffs. And if you are then Im sure you know in the playoffs he threw more INTs than TDs.Actually, every year hes made it to the play offs hes thrown more INTs than TDs.

If I showed you the stats but not the name theres simply no way hed get the contract hes going to get.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has a better career completion percentage and passing rating. Tannehill has a better career passing rating. TANNEHILL.

Overall, Luck really is a more mobile Stafford , who also has 5000 yards in a season and 41 tds in a regular season. No one considers Stafford a Hall of Famer and I dont think the Lions are quite happy they had to spend bucks to keep him but when you have a QB thats a B or B+ level you have to.

Popeyejones":2ac4yp5s said:

^^^^

1) You're shifting the terms of the conversation from if there are objective reasons why he'll get paid a lot to reasons why you prefer Wilson to him as a QB.

2) As I've said before, I'm not much interested in debating the ins and outs of Luck's game with Seahawks fans, as 9 times out of 10 the conversation I want to have about Andrew Luck is always secretly for Hawks fans actually a conversation about Russell Wilson. As I've said before it's a comparison and imagined slight that almost exclusively resides within the minds of Hawks fans, and I really don't see any upside in debating it as 1) personally I don't find it that interesting and 2) I have better things to do than to spend an afternoon pushing a rock up a mountain. :lol: They're both really good. What of it?

Click to expand...

Note: I wrote the following before reading the post above mine. Funny how we are almost exactly the same points :lol:


Luck has a 85 career QB rating and a 70.8 QB rating in the playoffs in 6 games...that is all that needs to be said..it really is

Even Newton...who people didnt think was all that good and just only now came onto the scene...has a career QB rating of 88.3 and a playoff rating of 92 in 5 games

Right now all Luck is is Matt Stafford IMO. Staffords 3rd year he had 41TD 16INT with 5000+ yards.

Having said that he will still get 20mil + . IF he doesnt I will be totally shocked. EVERYONE in the league is in love, head over heels for Luck. Even media still likes Luck. Just an example I was listening to Colin Cowherd and he STILL would pick Luck over Wilson for a Franchise, which is beyond unbelieveable at this point

^^The two posts above are both variants on what Peaches already posted.

Real question for you guys: knowing what you know about the salary cap and progressive nature of contract values, what do you think an appropriate APY is for him?

No, our post got very specific.. that Lucks numbers resembles Staffords more than anything else.

Your question is difficult..if you are the Colts then..Id pay whatever it is they are going to pay..because your only other choice is to let him walk and start over. But as I said, once you get a B or B+ QB or better, you have to keep him and hope for the best. The Ravens are a good example of that. Flacco wasnt really worth what he got at the time, but the other choice is starting over at the most important position.

If its all just a flat do over, Ideal world.. Id give him Andy Dalton type money.

The Bradford request for 25 just illustrates how the league works now. Doesn't matter what he's done. Teams are freaking desperate for quarterbacks.

Vetamur":2ah26xd0 said:

No, our post got very specific.

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Yeah. That's why I said variants; they got more specific on what Peaches was saying.

I understand you guys think Luck is awful, and yeah, you followed up on Peache's reference to statistics with those statistics. We're on the same page.

Vetamur":2ah26xd0 said:

Your question is difficult..if you are the Colts then..Id pay whatever it is they are going to pay..because your only other choice is to let him walk and start over. But as I said, once you get a B or B+ QB or better, you have to keep him and hope for the best. The Ravens are a good example of that. Flacco wasnt really worth what he got at the time, but the other choice is starting over at the most important position.

Click to expand...

K. Thanks for the reply.

Vetamur":2ah26xd0 said:

If its all just a flat do over, Ideal world.. Id give him Andy Dalton type money.

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So that would be (excluding the two fake years on the back end) a 4 year deal with 17 million guaranteed that's averaging 13.5 million per year.

So, we're talking 68% of the APY and 38% of the guaranteed money that Ryan Tannehill got, and less guaranteed money and 80% of the APY that Alex Smith got. (excluding fake years for both of these guys too)

Good to put numbers on it, as it really clarifies in hard terms how far off you and I are on Luck.

Supply is low, demand is high.

Andrew Luck on the open market would get $28M APY... at the very least. Cleveland would pony that up no sweat.

Projecting, I would say he will re-sign with the Colts eventually for around $24M APY. He won't get to the open market. Franchise QBs never do.

He will be one happy caveman in the end, either way.

Popeyejones":3kpmiuys said:

Vetamur":3kpmiuys said:

No, our post got very specific.

Click to expand...

Yeah. That's why I said variants; they got more specific on what Peaches was saying.

I understand you guys think Luck is awful, and yeah, you followed up on Peache's reference to statistics with those statistics. We're on the same page.

Vetamur":3kpmiuys said:

Your question is difficult..if you are the Colts then..Id pay whatever it is they are going to pay..because your only other choice is to let him walk and start over. But as I said, once you get a B or B+ QB or better, you have to keep him and hope for the best. The Ravens are a good example of that. Flacco wasnt really worth what he got at the time, but the other choice is starting over at the most important position.

Click to expand...

K. Thanks for the reply.

Vetamur":3kpmiuys said:

If its all just a flat do over, Ideal world.. Id give him Andy Dalton type money.

Click to expand...

So that would be (excluding the two fake years on the back end) a 4 year deal with 17 million guaranteed that's averaging 13.5 million per year.

So, we're talking 68% of the APY and 38% of the guaranteed money that Ryan Tannehill got, and less guaranteed money and 80% of the APY that Alex Smith got. (excluding fake years for both of these guys too)

Good to put numbers on it, as it really clarifies in hard terms how far off you and I are on Luck.

Click to expand...

Ok..I have to give a new number then. I didnt realize Dalton was getting that little. Wow.

Its really hard for me to figure what Id want to give Luck ideally.. the NFL is so hard this way. You dont want to pay for people for what theyve already done, as so often happens. But you dont want to get caught in that paying for potential trap either. And thats where the gap is.. its not really what do you think hes done up to now..we can all see those numbers. Its what do you think he will do.. is he one of the few QBs who can lead a team to the SB? Probably.
Looking at what Cam got.. Id probably be ok in that area. Again..in the ideal world. As I said before, in the real one.. essentially you have to pay him what he wants..and with the cap set to go up by a big chunk again this year, youre probably right at 24..could go 26 million.

Fade":1urx7dtg said:

Supply is low, demand is high.

Andrew Luck on the open market would get $28M APY... at the very least. Cleveland would pony that up no sweat.

Projecting, I would say he will re-sign with the Colts eventually for around $24M APY. He won't get to the open market. Franchise QBs never do.

He will be one happy caveman in the end, either way.

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Neck beard= ukeface: ukeface: ukeface: ukeface: ukeface: ukeface:

I wouldn't be surprised if Colts gave him the biggest QB contract ever. Good QB's are hard to find and he is a good one. It's a matter of supply & demand.

They'll pay him whatever he wants. It'll be interesting as he's now had multiple examples of why QBs shouldn't take $20+ million per year.

If the Panthers win I think Newton would be the first $20 mil per year QB to ever win the super bowl.

Realistically, he deserves to be the highest paid player in the NFL, because he has the next contract up. That seems to be the right of any franchise QB.

I would take Luck over any QB except Rodgers when starting a franchise, so he should probably be paid the 2nd highest QB salary based on that thinking.

If he was smart, he'd ask for around $18 mil per year as that would leave the team a tremendous amount of flexibility.

Ramfan128":2n6ih998 said:

They'll pay him whatever he wants. It'll be interesting as he's now had multiple examples of why QBs shouldn't take $20+ million per year.

If the Panthers win I think Newton would be the first $20 mil per year QB to ever win the super bowl.

Realistically, he deserves to be the highest paid player in the NFL, because he has the next contract up. That seems to be the right of any franchise QB.

I would take Luck over any QB except Rodgers when starting a franchise, so he should probably be paid the 2nd highest QB salary based on that thinking.

If he was smart, he'd ask for around $18 mil per year as that would leave the team a tremendous amount of flexibility.

Click to expand...

Even when Wilson, with an inferior line, puts up better numbers? I guess there's no mystery in why you're a Lambs fan....

Popeyejones":2wzhpluq said:

^^The two posts above are both variants on what Peaches already posted.

Real question for you guys: knowing what you know about the salary cap and progressive nature of contract values, what do you think an appropriate APY is for him?

Click to expand...

He will probably get at least 21mil avg a year

Matt Ryan is averaging 20.7 mil a year
Rivers is 20.8
Cam is 20.7
Tannehill is just south of 20 mil
Flacco is 20.1 mil a year
Even Kaepernick got 19 mil a year avg

Also somehow the Pats weaseled out of paying Brady...I thought people on here said Wilson could never get a lower ammount due to agent pressure and blah blah blah...Bradys Cap hit has been less than 16 mil the last 7 years..how the hell is that even possible

SeAhAwKeR4life":3ckz2fld said:

Ramfan128":3ckz2fld said:

They'll pay him whatever he wants. It'll be interesting as he's now had multiple examples of why QBs shouldn't take $20+ million per year.

If the Panthers win I think Newton would be the first $20 mil per year QB to ever win the super bowl.

Realistically, he deserves to be the highest paid player in the NFL, because he has the next contract up. That seems to be the right of any franchise QB.

I would take Luck over any QB except Rodgers when starting a franchise, so he should probably be paid the 2nd highest QB salary based on that thinking.

If he was smart, he'd ask for around $18 mil per year as that would leave the team a tremendous amount of flexibility.

Click to expand...

Even when Wilson, with an inferior line, puts up better numbers? I guess there's no mystery in why you're a Lambs fan....

Click to expand...

Is offensive line the only thing that matters for a QBs success? And I seem to remember the Seahawks Oline doing very well when Wilson was on his tear. And the years prior to this that Oline was an elite run blocking unit.

Too many variables to compare players like that....same thing I always say...trade Wilson for Luck straight up and the Colts are terrible, while the Seahawks would never lose. Just an opinion of course, but I bet you if the Colts offered the trade right now, even Pete Carroll would jump on it.

Popeyejones":21qslbjj said:

Vetamur":21qslbjj said:

No, our post got very specific.

Click to expand...

Yeah. That's why I said variants; they got more specific on what Peaches was saying.

I understand you guys think Luck is awful, and yeah, you followed up on Peache's reference to statistics with those statistics. We're on the same page.

Vetamur":21qslbjj said:

Your question is difficult..if you are the Colts then..Id pay whatever it is they are going to pay..because your only other choice is to let him walk and start over. But as I said, once you get a B or B+ QB or better, you have to keep him and hope for the best. The Ravens are a good example of that. Flacco wasnt really worth what he got at the time, but the other choice is starting over at the most important position.

Click to expand...

K. Thanks for the reply.

Vetamur":21qslbjj said:

If its all just a flat do over, Ideal world.. Id give him Andy Dalton type money.

Click to expand...

So that would be (excluding the two fake years on the back end) a 4 year deal with 17 million guaranteed that's averaging 13.5 million per year.

So, we're talking 68% of the APY and 38% of the guaranteed money that Ryan Tannehill got, and less guaranteed money and 80% of the APY that Alex Smith got. (excluding fake years for both of these guys too)

Good to put numbers on it, as it really clarifies in hard terms how far off you and I are on Luck.

Click to expand...

I dont think hes "awful" I just think hes too turnover prone and his playoff performance is a bit lacking for me. Maybe that is just who he is like Favre, a gunslinger. If he can cut down turnovers he will/would be very good. He floor is probably an average starter in the NFL, I mean hes not going to be out of the league or anything he has talent. If he was a 2nd round pick or something he would probably been seen way more accurately but he is still living on his draft and college hype even though Wilson was actually better in college. He actually has the record for a single season in passer rating/efficency(not that is indicative of nfl success though or anything just another fun fact)