This year has less obvious hot seat coaches than most. Pretty much all of the names here are either coaches who just signed contracts/extensions or who are with patient organizations.
The seemingly most tenuous coach is Caldwell, but remember that Detroit finished last season 6-2, and it would have been 7-1 if not for a phantom facemask on Rodgers. A batted pass gets called in Seattle, a bogus facemask call doesn't get made against Green Bay, and Detroit finishes 2015 with the same record as both of them and makes the playoffs. When Stafford heats up the Lions are a respectable team.
Pagano just signed a contract extension and it seems that things have been worked out. Even if things get rough again, firing Pagano will be an expensive move.
Khan is a very patient owner, and the Jaguars are a young team heading in the right direction. I think it would take two bad years, or one epicly bad year, to doom Bradley.
Mike Mularkey. One and done scenarios are rare. Patient ownership. Young team slowly heading in the right direction.
I don't think Jerry Jones will blame Garrett for having an injury prone QB and crappy backups. If Romo is healthy, I expect Dallas to be pretty good.
Marvin Lewis and Jeff Fisher are always on these lists and never get fired. Both will have good teams for the foreseeable future so it seems all the more unlikely now.
Mike McCoy. I thought he'd be fired last year, but ownership probably doesn't want to fire a coach while battling to move the team to LA. What happens if they fire McCoy and his replacement is awesome? It's easier to move a lousy team than a good one.
Bill O'Brien. I think the Texans will probably be good in 2016. But if there is a sleeper candidate for a surprise firing, I would nominate O'Brien. He is the closest thing to Jim Mora the younger currently in the NFL. He has a temper and does not treat people around him well. A lot of the new pieces are talented, but are currently more hype than substance. If the team collapses after entering the year with high expectations, O'Brien is exactly the kind of coach who could lose the locker room.
Dan Quinn. If Carolina is bit by the SB hangover, who will capitalize? Atlanta was the only team to beat Carolina in the regular season last year. Of note, Atlanta went 6-5 in games decided by one score last year. 11 of their 16 games went down to the wire. They aren't a fundamentally strong team, but they are competitive. A repeat of 2015 would have Quinn sitting at 16-16 after two seasons, so I doubt he gets fired. It would have to be a disaster year for him to go.
Mike McCarthy. No way. Green Bay has the easiest schedule in the NFL and is fully healthy. It would be a total stunner if they finished with fewer than 12 wins. If anything, McCarthy should be a heavy favorite for coach of the year 2016, given that it is basically the "comeback player of the year" award for coaches.
Chip Kelly. It's going to happen, but would it happen in year one? Baalke knows how hard it is to recruit quality coaching to the 49ers org right now. Kelly is a poor fit, but Baalke is very fortunate to have a decent coach at all and I'm sure that isn't lost on him. Whether or not Chip Kelly is an NFL genius, he'll look like a genius compared to his predecessor.