Davante Adams will not play for Packers under Franchise Tag

James in PA

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Ha Ha, Erin!

Surprised the Ram$$$ didn't trade for him.
 

Fade

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DK up next. 4 years $112M and not a penny less.
 

bigskydoc

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Makes the Raiders look good, and that division just got so much harder. Poor Wilson.

Green Bay got a nice set of picks for him, though. I think they will make out ok on the trade.

DK is good, but he's not antwhere near Adams' level. 16 to 18mil APY is a much more reasonable salary for him, and pays him like a top receiver in his tier, for the duration of his next contract.
 

James in PA

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If only we could get Aaron Donald over to the Raiders, Chargers, or KC, that would be the icing on the cake. [emoji23]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Fade

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bigskydoc":1jutespj said:
Makes the Raiders look good, and that division just got so much harder. Poor Wilson.

Green Bay got a nice set of picks for him, though. I think they will make out ok on the trade.

DK is good, but he's not antwhere near Adams' level. 16 to 18mil APY is a much more reasonable salary for him, and pays him like a top receiver in his tier, for the duration of his next contract.

DK isn't playing and agreeing to those ridiculously low numbers. He might sign for $22M APY if he is feeling generous. His agent is going to be asking for $28M APY minimum. They could meet in the middle at $25M APY.
 

bigskydoc

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He's only worth a 16 to 18 million APY extension to the Hawks, unless they have plans to dramatically increase his production.

DK is not the #1 receiver in the league, he is borderline top 10, and he is signing an extension, not a free agent contract.

He has potential top 10 talent, but so far has only produced 1 out of 3 seasons of top 10 level play (arguably this is not entirely his fault).

Current top 10 WR APY, before the Adams signing, ranged from 18 to 20 million. The Adams contract will bump that up, but the Raiders overpaid, and I don't see another receiver getting that 28 APY. A Tyreek Hill restructure would be telling of where the market is going.

Given that the cap is going up by around 5% per year, the APY for top ten receivers should be between 22 and 24 mil, in the final year of the contract, with an average APY of 20 to 22 million, over the life of the contract. The Adams contract bumps that up a bit, maybe in the 25 to 26 range, in the final year, with an average 22 to 24.

However, this is a, presumably 4-year, extension, not a free agent contract. Players don't receive the full APY in the 1st extension year. They get around half of what they get for an APY in years 2-5. If you run a 25 million APY contract through the extension math, that would mean the player would be getting paid roughly the same as Davante Adams for years 2-5 (12.5million for 2022, and 28.125 million for 2023-2026). If you only assign the 25 million to years 2-5, then the total contract APY would be roughly 22.5 million. This is what makes it so difficult to compare the value of extensions vs free agent contracts.


How does all this apply to DK's situation. Those numbers are for the top ten receivers, on teams that get top 10 production value out of them. I would argue that Kupp is worth that kind of money to LA, Samuel is worth that kind of money to SF, and Evans/ Godwin may be worth that kind of money to Tampa, etc. DK isn't worth that to the Seahawks. Either due to his own limitations, or the limitations in the Hawks game plan, he doesn't produce at a top-ten level here. There is no sense in paying him that kind of money.

His historic production is a tier down from top ten, which places his future contract value in the current top ten, 16-18 million total contract APY range (18-20.25 million APY in years 2-5). That is what receivers just outside of the top ten will be getting paid in the next few years. Bumping it up to a clean 20 million APY, giving him 22.5 in years 2-5, would be the absolute tops I would pay for him, in Seattle, unless there is a clear path to increase his production.

If he is actually a top ten talent, then the unfortunate reality it that he is worth more to other teams than he is to us. Pay him his 1.1 million for 2022, franchise tag him in 2023, then trade him, or play him one final year on the tag. He is worth more to us at 1.1 million, in 2022, than we could get in trade.
 

bigskydoc

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Now let's look at it from DK's perspective. He has a couple of options. 1 - Take the Hawks offer of 18-20 million APY, with a guarantee in the 50 to 60 million range. 2 - Bet on himself, and his health, for two more years, and knowing he will only get around 22 million.

If he takes offer number one, and stays healthy and productive, he will come into the 2025 season with roughly 70 to 80 million in his pocket, and the opportunity to renegotiate, or be traded. If he stays healthy, he likely gets a big third contract.

If he takes door number 2, he gets to the 2025 season with closer to a guaranteed 80 to 90 million, but will have to wait an additional 2 years to negotiate his second contract. The third contract gets pushed to later in his career, and may not be as big.

I guess it all depends on how he wants to bet on his own longevity and production. Personally, I would take door number one, with the guaranteed money, and the higher possibility of a third big contract
 
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