byau
Active member
This will be quick because ...well, the rankings are over and it's time to start the REAL NFL season.
Also, a quick shout out of thanks to those that publicly posted thanks in the last thread! Wanted to post thanks there, but didn't want to bump the old thread, so saying thanks here! (That's to you: Silentwander, SoulfishHawk, pmedic920, Aros, hawknation2014, 12thManNorth)!
Moving on...
For the stats and numbers guys and for anyone that likes this type of discussion, here are the NFL Combined Power Rankings this week.
How The Seahawks Did This Week
"It just shows who he is as a person and as a player, his effort, his unwavering commitment, his unwavering effort on every play for that last inch, till there is only an inch left. I think that's why he's one of the best players in the league." -Richard Sherman on Earl Thomas colossal play
This game is perhaps most indicative of the Seahawks season and character. The offense showed flashes of brilliance, and at times showed so many weaknesses on the offensive line to make you cringe. And the defense stood their ground throughout the game, sometimes showing no holes, sometimes showing that they could be exposed, but in the end you had confidence that every play was a play to be made.
And throughout the game both the offense and defense made plays when they needed to, even with early mistakes. And the team also didn't let the early mistakes get them down as they continued to try to plow ahead on offense and be invulnerable on defense.
Most notably for me are two plays of the game, one offensive and one defensive
On the offense, the 32 yard 50/50 ball catch by Paul Richardson. The last two years Russell Wilson threw a lot more of these types of passes, mostly to Sidney Rice and Golden Tate, both of who are now gone. This year he hasn't thrown as many opting for higher percentage balls. Whether this means the receivers are not getting open or he doesn't want to take a chance with them on the 50/50 balls, the end result is longer scrambles and what seems like more sacks. The fact that Russell went for the 50/50 with Paul Richardson means he is starting to develop that timing, rhythm, and trust with this talented rookie which bodes well for better execution on offense as we enter the playoffs.
On the defense: no better play than Earl Thomas touchdown-turned-touchback play. Literally speaking, you give the players an inch and they think a play can be made. This is the example of never giving up on a play, never giving up on a drive, and always thinking on every play, a play can be made.
This last win and the big plays made by offense and defense should give the team a lot of confidence going into the playoffs that they are the team to beat.
NFL Combined Rankings Summary
Take the scores of 7 rankings and combine them. I use a system called "relative placement" which is advantageous in this type of subjective judging. I have used it many times in the past as a head judge of dance competitions which are pretty much all purely subjective judging.
Here are the source NFL power rankings
NFL.com
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... lar-season
1. Seahawks
2. Patriots
3. Packers
4. Cowboys
5. Broncos
1. Seahawks (same). So it looked dicey for a half on Sunday, but the defending champs eventually took care of business. And for the second straight season, Seattle will force NFC teams to visit the toughest place to play in the NFL. We caught some phaser fire for our reference to the Organian Peace Treaty last week, so we won't go there again. On a football note, it is amazing how many parsecs Earl Thomas covers out there at safety.
SBNation
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/12/30/ ... ts-broncos
1. Seahawks
2. Patriots
3. Cowboys
4. Broncos
5. Packers
1. Seahawks (+1).
The Seattle Seahawks started out the year atop our power rankings and shoot back into the No. 1 spot after beating the St. Louis Rams on Sunday. They did so on the back of a great performance by Bruce Irvin, who finished with five tackles, a sack, an interception-touchdown and a forced fumble.
The Seahawks staked their claim to the top spot by ending the season on a six-game win streak -- a tear in which they outscored their opponents 134-39, allowed no fourth-quarter points and locked up the NFC West Division title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The No. 1 seed is a huge get for Seattle -- it is 22-2 in its last 24 games at home, a spell in which the Seahawks racked up 55 takeaways, amassed a plus-357 point differential, and built a plus-22 turnover margin.
Seattle's defense is again playing at high level and gave up the fewest points in the NFL for the third season in a row, a feat last accomplished by the 1969-71 Minnesota Viking "Purple People Eaters." The Seahawks are peaking at the right time.
ESPN
http://espn.go.com/nfl/powerrankings/_/ ... 14/week/18
1. Seahawks
2. Patriots
3. Packers
4. Broncos
5. Cowboys
1. Seahawks (+1).Should the Patriots be penalized for losing a meaningless game? According to ESPN's Power Panel (a group of more than 80 writers, editors and TV personalities), yes.
New England fell to No. 2 after dropping Sunday's regular-season finale, giving Seattle the No. 1 spot and Power Rankings "title" for 2014. Green Bay finished at No. 3, with Denver at No. 4.
Since losing to the Chiefs in Week 11, the Seahawks have won six straight games and allowed 6.5 points per game. Talk about ending the season the right way.
CBS Sports (Pat Kirwan)
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pat ... for-repeat
1. Seahawks
2. Patriots
3. Packers
4. Broncos
5. Cowboys
1. Seahawks (same). Home-field advantage belongs to the Seahawks throughout the NFC playoffs and they have given up only 39 points the past six weeks. Roster depth and a magician at QB (Russell Wilson) make them the favorites to repeat.
The Seahawks have a look of destiny about them. Their defense is peaking, Russell Wilson is playing fantastic, error-free football, and they've got the best home-field advantage in the NFL lined up for the playoffs.
Can anybody knock off the champs? I'll believe it when I see it.
FOX Sports
http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/photos/wil ... als-122914
1. Patriots
2. Seahawks
3. Cowboys
4. Packers
5. Broncos
2. Seahawks (-1) The Seahawks jettisoned Percy Harvin without finding his replacement, but they enter the postseason with a complete defense, winning experience, a quarterback who makes big plays, and the 12th Man behind them
Yahoo Sports
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutd ... 15106.html
1. Patriots
2. Seahawks
3. Packers
4. Cowboys
5. Broncos
2. Seahawks (same) The most likely scenario is either Carolina or Arizona coming to Seattle in the divisional round, and I think we all know how that's turning out.
I didn't see anything late in the season to change my mind that the gap between the Patriots and Seahawks and everyone else is pretty wide, especially with those two teams having No. 1 seeds in the playoffs. I still prefer the Patriots in these final power rankings before the playoffs, but not by much.
Washington Post (Mark Maske)
NOTE: I decided to forego the Fancy Stats rankings since they are still not out yet. Often when I check out Neil's Fancy Stats rankings, I do check out the regular Washington Post NFL analyst's rankings as well (by Mark Maske) and I like his writing. I thought it suitable to plug his rankings in the place of Neil's Fancy Stats rankings.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/spor ... favorites/
1. Seahawks
2. Patriots
3. Cowboys
4. Packers
5. Broncos
1. Seahawks (same)
It’s looking quite a bit like it will be a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl. All of New England’s top competitors in the conference have issues, and someone would have to go to Foxborough, Mass., and beat the Patriots during the AFC playoffs to keep Coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady from returning to the Super Bowl.
The Seahawks have home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, and it is a considerable advantage indeed. They are playing at a level that approaches the one during last season’s run to the Super Bowl title. There is every reason to believe the Seahawks will be back in the Super Bowl. Who’s going to go to Seattle during the NFC playoffs and beat them with the stakes so high?
NFL Combined Rankings Using Relative Placement
1st: Seattle Seahawks (last week: 1st)
VOTES: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2
2nd: New England Patriots (last week: 2nd)
VOTES: 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2. 2
3rd: Green Bay Packers (last week: 3rd)
VOTES: 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5
4th: Dallas Cowboys (last week: 4th)
VOTES: 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5
5th: Denver Broncos (last week: 5th)
VOTES: 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5
Fell Out Of Rankings:
aka no 1st through 5th votes this week
none
Some Analysis With Relative Placement and What We Know
None of this is real deep, so if you see a comment and think to yourself "well, duh...", I have no problem with that
Ranking Shakers
All the "contender" games for the top five slots pretty much went as planned. The ones that possibly affected the rankings
49ers beat Cardinals 20-17 cementing the Cardinals non-top-five status, and on many analysts polls, the Cardinals are near the bottom in the playoff and wildcard rankings
Patriots lose meaningless game to the Bills 17-9 Resting Gronkowski and Brady for much of the game, the Patriots basically took this as a "bye" week from a rankings perspective. In a bye week we usually see a team dip a little bit depending on how other things went down. Since the Seahawks and Patriots currently are above and beyond the field, the only dip they might take is from #1 on some lists to #2, but definitely not #2 to #3
Packers beat Lions 30-20 While the Packers convincing win over a playoff contender should keep them higher in the rankings, the questionable status of Rodgers might have some analysts second guessing.
Seahawks beat Rams 20-6 The offense did not have a dominant showing, which is possibly what dropped them from #1 to #2 on some rankings. Then again, the defense did which was enough to move them from #2 to #1 on other rankings. Call it a wash. The Pats and Seahawks are both pretty much #1 right now, and you can't put them both there so one of them has to be #2.
Natural Breaks from a Tally perspective
Same as last week:
Natural Break # 1 Patriots and Seahawks at the top, splitting the first and second place votes (for the most part, darn those Fancy Stats). Passes the smell test too, this is what we've seen as of late with other teams faltering a bit from the smell test. The Patriots basically took a "bye" so there was nothing really here to be judged. The Seahawks offense slipped a bit compared to last week, but the defense continued to dominate and the scoreboard still shows a blowout score.
Natural Break # 2 Technically it's the Packers and the Cowboys in this break and the Broncos are on the outside looking in. The reason is that the Packers and Cowboys both had majorities with 3rd and 4th place votes and had to go to a tiebreaker (number of 3rd and 4th place votes).
If you really wanted to, you could make an argument as well to put the Broncos in here as well since they had a good number of the 4th place votes and the Packers/Cowboys had their fair share of 5th place votes even though they didn't make it into the previous tiebreaker with the Packers/Cowboys.
None of this should surprise anyone, and it's nice to see the rankings reflecting these as a whole.
And not surprisingly, these top five teams are the top SB contenders with a surprising Dallas Cowboys team in the mix ahead of the Broncos who have stayed pretty much in the top three rankings until the last two weeks.
Should be a fun playoffs.
Fancy Stats Outliers
No fancy stats this week!
Relative Placement Fun: Patriots and Seahawks
Same as last week in that the Hawks and Pats split all the 1st and 2nd votes, the Seahawks gaining one more this time over the Patriots. Still, you get the feeling from reading the analysts' descriptions that pretty much it's a 1A and 1B and depending on criteria, you can make a case for either.
The more fun thing is to see how the #3, #4, and #5 votes are working. You can see they are all the same group, and they are each getting votes in that range. You can pretty much just guess what criteria is considered a priority and then rank them and it will come out different each time.
Put a high priority on how banged up a team is? Aaron Rodgers injury might cause concern and you might put them lower.
Put a high priority on momentum? Even beating a cellar dwellar, Dallas passes the smell test of swagger and confidence and you might put them higher. And the Broncos are the team in this top five that are at best holding a spot, if not on a downtick.
Put stock into history and player? Peyton Manning has shown he has a consistent brilliance about him while Romo's detractors are a "I will believe it when I see it" when it comes to the playoffs and rankings may reflect this. But that would be behind the player many of whom would consider the MVP: Aaron Rodgers who has historically been fantastic - give him the smallest of holes and he will pinpoint the pass in perfectly
Makes it very interesting to see the different ways rankings shake out when teams are very very close.
Thanks for reading!
I really enjoy getting my "relative placement" practice in. I have done a lot of scoring and tallying with dance competitions, and the NFL seems a great place to put this to use as well. Rankings are weekly so it's not a huge time committment, and I love sports, and I love football.
And as I was doing these anyway for myself, I figured I'd post them in case others found it good reading (esp. after Sunday hangovers!)
Thanks for reading!
And as we all know, no more rankings from here on out. Especially for those that don't see a point in rankings or moral victories, it's your time now!
It's win or go home time!
GO SEAHAWKS!! GO YOU FREAKING SEAHAWKS!!!
