Should we draft a QB this year?

[knownone]

This is a pretty easy question to answer. If there is a QB that they believe has the potential to start in this league, and that guy falls to them, or into a range they can afford to move up to, they'd be silly not to draft that QB.

This is the only way to manage the risk of a potential trade. First, having the young QB for a year would allow him to learn from Russ, and give the team time to evaluate his future at the position. And, if they hit on a QB, they increase their leverage in a trade because they know they have a guy in house that can replace Russell. Suddenly, they are not looking to replace Russ while trading him, but instead trying to maximize their window with the young QB.

 

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Do any modicum of research and you will quickly realize Franchise QBs do not appear in most drafts. I counted 5/132 taken in the last 11 drafts. And that list might shrink because they have to be considered elite for more than 10 seasons imo and be up for HoF consideration to qualify as a Franchise QB. So some guys we consider elite now potentially wont be in a few years, such as Cam Newton who fell off a cliff years ago, or Andrew Luck retiring early. It just goes to show how hard it is to get consistent quality play out of the position.

This is not a great QB draft. Pete Carroll doesn't know how to develop QBs. He knows defense, and is obsessed with building a running game. (He doesn't really know how to build one he just forces it.) Pete Carroll tosses the QB in the deep end of the swimming pool with no instruction. If he can swim he stays. Nearly all of them drown.

The only QBs taken past the 12th overall pick in the draft that would be considered elite in the last 11 drafts would be Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. That is it. The Seahawks would be foolishly flushing a pick down the toilet if they spent it on a QB, given recent NFL history, and Pete Carroll's history. Seattle mortgaged the future for Jamal Adams so they will have to wait until 2023 to pursue their next QB at the earliest.

I fully expect JS to trade some players on the roster to add draft picks to the meager 4 he has now.

 

[knownone]

Do any modicum of research and you will quickly realize Franchise QBs do not appear in most drafts. I counted 5/132 taken in the last 11 drafts. And that list might shrink because they have to be considered elite for more than 10 seasons imo and be up for HoF consideration to qualify as a Franchise QB. So some guys we consider elite now potentially wont be in a few years, such as Cam Newton who fell off a cliff years ago, or Andrew Luck retiring early. It just goes to show how hard it is to get consistent quality play out of the position.

This is not a great QB draft. Pete Carroll doesn't know how to develop QBs. He knows defense, and is obsessed with building a running game. (He doesn't really know how to build one he just forces it.) Pete Carroll tosses the QB in the deep end of the swimming pool with no instruction. If he can swim he stays. Nearly all of them drown.

The only QBs taken past the 12th overall pick in the draft that would be considered elite in the last 11 drafts would be Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. That is it. The Seahawks would be foolishly flushing a pick down the toilet if they spent it on a QB, given recent NFL history, and Pete Carroll's history. Seattle mortgaged the future for Jamal Adams so they will have to wait until 2023 to pursue their next QB at the earliest.

I fully expect JS to trade some players on the roster to add draft picks to the meager 4 he has now.

I think you have relatively high standards for what constitutes a franchise QB. I would argue a more prudent definition of the term is a QB with long-term job security based on their current talent level or perceived future talent level. I suppose you could classify them in whatever phase of the franchise cycle they are in, so a guy like Matt Ryan is nearing his final phase as a franchise QB. If you plotted this, you would expect to find anywhere from 10-20 franchise QBs in a given season as guys shift in and out of cycles.

For example, Derek Carr is a franchise QB. He's been with the same team for 8 years and has 3 pro bowl appearances. However, you could argue he's nearing the end of his franchise cycle such that he's no longer valued for his future potential but rather for his real value to the team. Thus, his days as a franchise QB could be number (See: Andy Dalton).

You've then laid out a very compelling case for why Seattle shouldn't have drafted Russell Wilson by using the law of averages to influence your decision-making rather than your scouting of the player. In other words, if you are taking a QB to take a QB, I agree with you. However, if you are taking a QB that you believe has the potential to be your next franchise QB, then you are not flushing picks down the toilet. Instead, you are taking a calculated risk such that you believe the player's potential value outweighs the risk associated with the costs of acquiring the player.

 

[Fade]

Do any modicum of research and you will quickly realize Franchise QBs do not appear in most drafts. I counted 5/132 taken in the last 11 drafts. And that list might shrink because they have to be considered elite for more than 10 seasons imo and be up for HoF consideration to qualify as a Franchise QB. So some guys we consider elite now potentially wont be in a few years, such as Cam Newton who fell off a cliff years ago, or Andrew Luck retiring early. It just goes to show how hard it is to get consistent quality play out of the position.

This is not a great QB draft. Pete Carroll doesn't know how to develop QBs. He knows defense, and is obsessed with building a running game. (He doesn't really know how to build one he just forces it.) Pete Carroll tosses the QB in the deep end of the swimming pool with no instruction. If he can swim he stays. Nearly all of them drown.

The only QBs taken past the 12th overall pick in the draft that would be considered elite in the last 11 drafts would be Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. That is it. The Seahawks would be foolishly flushing a pick down the toilet if they spent it on a QB, given recent NFL history, and Pete Carroll's history. Seattle mortgaged the future for Jamal Adams so they will have to wait until 2023 to pursue their next QB at the earliest.

I fully expect JS to trade some players on the roster to add draft picks to the meager 4 he has now.

I think you have relatively high standards for what constitutes a franchise QB. I would argue a more prudent definition of the term is a QB with long-term job security based on their current talent level or perceived future talent level. I suppose you could classify them in whatever phase of the franchise cycle they are in, so a guy like Matt Ryan is nearing his final phase as a franchise QB. If you plotted this, you would expect to find anywhere from 10-20 franchise QBs in a given season as guys shift in and out of cycles.

For example, Derek Carr is a franchise QB. He's been with the same team for 8 years and has 3 pro bowl appearances. However, you could argue he's nearing the end of his franchise cycle such that he's no longer valued for his future potential but rather for his real value to the team. Thus, his days as a franchise QB could be number (See: Andy Dalton).

You've then laid out a very compelling case for why Seattle shouldn't have drafted Russell Wilson by using the law of averages to influence your decision-making rather than your scouting of the player. In other words, if you are taking a QB to take a QB, I agree with you. However, if you are taking a QB that you believe has the potential to be your next franchise QB, then you are not flushing picks down the toilet. Instead, you are taking a calculated risk such that you believe the player's potential value outweighs the risk associated with the costs of acquiring the player.

Franchise QBs consistently make the playoffs, and get HoF consideration. Derek Carr has neither. Your Andy Dalton comp proves it further.

When you do not have a franchise QB, you should be drafting a QB every year. As you're in the market and in desperate need of one. When you have one, you should be spending every resource to support and surround said QB. Unless your Head Coach is a QB guru like a Holmgren or an Andy Reed. Then there is value in developing and flipping QBs for picks. Pete Carroll is not that.

 

[knownone]

Do any modicum of research and you will quickly realize Franchise QBs do not appear in most drafts. I counted 5/132 taken in the last 11 drafts. And that list might shrink because they have to be considered elite for more than 10 seasons imo and be up for HoF consideration to qualify as a Franchise QB. So some guys we consider elite now potentially wont be in a few years, such as Cam Newton who fell off a cliff years ago, or Andrew Luck retiring early. It just goes to show how hard it is to get consistent quality play out of the position.

This is not a great QB draft. Pete Carroll doesn't know how to develop QBs. He knows defense, and is obsessed with building a running game. (He doesn't really know how to build one he just forces it.) Pete Carroll tosses the QB in the deep end of the swimming pool with no instruction. If he can swim he stays. Nearly all of them drown.

The only QBs taken past the 12th overall pick in the draft that would be considered elite in the last 11 drafts would be Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott. That is it. The Seahawks would be foolishly flushing a pick down the toilet if they spent it on a QB, given recent NFL history, and Pete Carroll's history. Seattle mortgaged the future for Jamal Adams so they will have to wait until 2023 to pursue their next QB at the earliest.

I fully expect JS to trade some players on the roster to add draft picks to the meager 4 he has now.

I think you have relatively high standards for what constitutes a franchise QB. I would argue a more prudent definition of the term is a QB with long-term job security based on their current talent level or perceived future talent level. I suppose you could classify them in whatever phase of the franchise cycle they are in, so a guy like Matt Ryan is nearing his final phase as a franchise QB. If you plotted this, you would expect to find anywhere from 10-20 franchise QBs in a given season as guys shift in and out of cycles.

For example, Derek Carr is a franchise QB. He's been with the same team for 8 years and has 3 pro bowl appearances. However, you could argue he's nearing the end of his franchise cycle such that he's no longer valued for his future potential but rather for his real value to the team. Thus, his days as a franchise QB could be number (See: Andy Dalton).

You've then laid out a very compelling case for why Seattle shouldn't have drafted Russell Wilson by using the law of averages to influence your decision-making rather than your scouting of the player. In other words, if you are taking a QB to take a QB, I agree with you. However, if you are taking a QB that you believe has the potential to be your next franchise QB, then you are not flushing picks down the toilet. Instead, you are taking a calculated risk such that you believe the player's potential value outweighs the risk associated with the costs of acquiring the player.

Franchise QBs consistently make the playoffs, and get HoF consideration. Derek Carr has neither. Your Andy Dalton comp proves it further.

When you do not have a franchise QB, you should be drafting a QB every year. As you're in the market and in desperate need of one. When you have one, you should be spending every resource to support and surround said QB. Unless your Head Coach is a QB guru like a Holmgren or an Andy Reed. Then there is value in developing and flipping QBs for picks. Pete Carroll is not that.

I'm not sure you understood my point. I'm essentially saying your definition of a franchise QB is arbitrary to the point of being silly. Perhaps you are confusing the words franchise and elite? I'm not sure. Nonetheless, if you disagree with my much more grounded definition, that is fine. It is worth keeping in mind though that I used Carr and Dalton to explain the details of my previously stated definition. I was not telling you that you are wrong for feeling the way you do about QBs. So you implying that I am wrong for not holding your arbitrary definition is a bit strange.

As to your last point, I disagree. If your franchise QB (my definition, not yours) is flirting with the idea of moving on in the media, you have a reason to be proactive when seeking his replacement.