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The fight for the NFC #1 seed (Week 15 Updated)

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  • So, as we enter Week 12 of the NFL season, the race for the NFC #1 seed is tightly contested. The Seahawks, thankfully, are looking strong with the easiest remaining schedule in the league. Will Seattle finish at the top and ensure home field advantage?

    Seattle Seahawks (10-4)

    vs. Rams (9-5)
    @ 49ers (5-9)

    Los Angeles Rams (9-5)
    @ Seahawks (10-4)
    vs. Cardinals (8-6)


    Green Bay Packers (11-3)
    vs. Titans (10-4)
    @ Bears (7-7)

    New Orleans Saints (10-4)

    vs. Vikings (6-8)
    @ Panthers (4-10)
    Last edited by BoltonWanderer on Sun Dec 20, 2020 6:35 pm, edited 11 times in total.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:16 am
  • Playoff contenders facing a lot of red teams, this is all about the right mentality and health now.

    Good thing is two contenders face the Chiefs and one the Titans which have been getting better, Rams have three division games.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:12 pm
  • If the Hawks, Saints and Packers were all to finish 13-3, would the Hawks get the #1 seed? What if it comes down to just Hawks vs Saints or Hawks vs Packers?


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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:49 pm
  • chris98251 wrote:Playoff contenders facing a lot of red teams, this is all about the right mentality and health now.

    Good thing is two contenders face the Chiefs and one the Titans which have been getting better, Rams have three division games.

    The good thing about the Saints, and what will make their run in difficult, is the loss of Brees. I wasn't impressed by Hill and he took too many sacks. They're going to be reliant on Kamara and their defence I think, but they'll be very pleased if they only lose one more game before the end of the season.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:51 pm
  • Seattle has a chance because of our weak schedule, but the Saints have a pretty weak schedule too. And considering that they've knocked off the Bucs twice now, I think the Saint are going to take the NFC (reg season) crown.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:55 pm
  • Here's how I think it ends up:

    Seahawks 12-4

    Saints 12-4

    Rams 11-5

    Packers 11-5

    Bucs 10-6

    I don't know in this scenario who wins the #1 seed between Seattle or New Orleans though.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:15 pm
  • Would the tie-break come down to record versus like-opponents, in that event? ^^
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:28 pm
  • Makes every week so important. Love it.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:33 pm
  • Aros wrote:Here's how I think it ends up:

    Seahawks 12-4

    Saints 12-4

    Rams 11-5

    Packers 11-5

    Bucs 10-6

    I don't know in this scenario who wins the #1 seed between Seattle or New Orleans though.


    Here is the link to the tiebreaker procedure - https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tiebreaking-procedures/
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:34 pm
  • Well, for one thing, it looks like the NFC West will determine who will win the NFC East.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:59 pm
  • Aros wrote:Here's how I think it ends up:
    Seahawks 12-4
    Saints 12-4
    Rams 11-5
    Packers 11-5
    Bucs 10-6
    I don't know in this scenario who wins the #1 seed between Seattle or New Orleans though.


    If the Hawks and Saints end in a two way tie, since the teams don't face each other, the tie-break comes down to our win % in common games. Fortunately, we've won 3 of them so far.

    Falcons (Won)
    Vikings (Won)
    49ers (Won, 1 TBD)
    Eagles (TBD)

    Saints:
    Falcons (Won)
    Vikings (TBD)
    49ers (Won)
    Eagles (TBD)

    Monday night's game against the Eagles would help us tremendously, should we end in a tie with the Saints for the #1 seed, as it turns out.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:56 pm
  • Good stuff, thanks!
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:29 pm
  • Important to note when there are multiple teams tied with the same record, there's a hierarchy to determine who wins the Division and then who wins seeding.

    IF Arizona and Seattle were tied at 12-4 (along with either another one or two teams at 12-4), it would resolve the Division winner first and then the Division winner would be broken down by tie-breakers to determine seeding.

    Example:

    Seattle 12-4
    Arizona 12-4

    #1 Head-to-head: Tied at 1-1
    #2 Division Record: Currently, Seattle is 2-2 and Arizona is 2-1
    #3 Common Games: Currently Seattle is 4-2 and Arizona is 4-2
    #4 Conference: Currently Seattle is 5-2 and Arizona is 4-3

    At the end of the season, Seattle still plays @SF and LAR while Arizona has LAR, SF and @LAR.

    For Common Games, Seattle has to play @PHI, NYG, NYJ, @WASH and Arizona has @NWE, @NYG, and PHI. (Seattle has more common games because we have one less Division game remaining than ARZ).

    Use this link if you want to play around with potential seeding. http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

    It's really hard for Seattle to win in a head-to-head as 12-4 requires the Cardinals to go 6-0 to finish the year and that gives them a 5-1 Division record which Seattle could not top. Seattle would have to go 13-3 or finish with a game-better record than the Cardinals.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:32 pm
  • If the Rams can go 3-1 and Seattle goes 4-0 over the next 4, week 16 will basically decide the division
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:32 pm
  • The lambs are coming in hot right now , it's the Hawks or the Lambs @ the end .IMO
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:38 pm
  • GB is fading - The Bucs look iffy--but that new QB for the Saints looks to be big trouble .Mr. Hill takes the helm . They got some good D also .
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:11 pm
  • xray wrote:GB is fading - The Bucs look iffy--but that new QB for the Saints looks to be big trouble .Mr. Hill takes the helm . They got some good D also .


    Hill has his moments. Could be important that 4 out of their last 6 are road games.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:57 pm
  • [quote="xray"]The lambs are coming in hot right now , it's the Hawks or the Lambs @ the end .IMO[/quots

    as are the Hawks :les:


    ASn
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:48 am
  • i think 12-4 with winning the Rams game is enough to win the division. Now the question about the number 1 seed is far murkier. Especially with the various tiebreaker scenarios.

    New Orleans and Green Bay could very easily get to 12 wins given the schedule, 13 wins I think is what it will take to be the number one seed. Seattle needing to win out looks possible, but not probable given the remaining schedule.

    Lets go 4-0 before the Rams game to leave it all on the line in that game. (And then will typically lose the last game versus SF to clinch number 1 seed) :shock:
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:27 am
  • xray wrote:GB is fading - The Bucs look iffy--but that new QB for the Saints looks to be big trouble .Mr. Hill takes the helm . They got some good D also .


    I love Taysom Hill, but our defence has more trouble against the air-it-out QB's than the option QB's. Even though Hill has a cannon, he throws the worst deep balls. This is one game where we better not play our soft "bend but don't break" defence, because the last thing we need is to get Mr. Hill into a nice rhythm.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Thu Nov 26, 2020 3:59 am
  • lacenterhawk wrote:
    xray wrote:The lambs are coming in hot right now , it's the Hawks or the Lambs @ the end .IMO[/quots

    as are the Hawks :les:


    ASn


    Which Hawks are you talking about? The Seahawks have lost 2 out their last 3, and 3 out of their last 5.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:08 am
  • I can't think of a year in which home-field advantage ever meant less. here are no or few fans in stadiums. Playoffs aren't 1000EST games, so the Hawks just need to get in.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Sun Nov 29, 2020 6:29 pm
  • All results updated.

    Looking at the remaining schedules, the Falcon's are potentially an awkward match up for the Saints, and with difficult games coming up, Hill has to start playing better. The 49ers win helps out Seattle a lot but they're looking good and will want to finish the season off on a high. We'll all be cheering on the Bears tonight.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Sun Nov 29, 2020 6:41 pm
  • falcongoggles wrote:I can't think of a year in which home-field advantage ever meant less. here are no or few fans in stadiums. Playoffs aren't 1000EST games, so the Hawks just need to get in.

    Yes, but the 1st seed means a playoff bye. Which is gigantic. World need to win out and have the saints lose though
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Sun Nov 29, 2020 6:50 pm
  • Taysom Hill will lose games for the Saints if he has to keep starting.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Sun Nov 29, 2020 7:09 pm
  • Green Bay has the easiest schedule than everyone.

    Seattle has to worry the last 2 games Rams and 49ers. But that #1 seed is really important. If GB gets it, they have a good chance of going to the SB
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Sun Nov 29, 2020 8:59 pm
  • falcongoggles wrote:I can't think of a year in which home-field advantage ever meant less. here are no or few fans in stadiums. Playoffs aren't 1000EST games, so the Hawks just need to get in.



    This is true but.....

    A bye week would be very nice, and could go a long way in getting healthy.
    I’m expecting a few guys being banged up by then.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Mon Nov 30, 2020 6:24 am
  • Welshers wrote:
    falcongoggles wrote:I can't think of a year in which home-field advantage ever meant less. here are no or few fans in stadiums. Playoffs aren't 1000EST games, so the Hawks just need to get in.

    Yes, but the 1st seed means a playoff bye. Which is gigantic. World need to win out and have the saints lose though

    The Saints arguably have the toughest match up left, against the Chiefs who are chasing the Steelers for the #1 seed in the AFL. That's a tough game for them, but I'm honestly not convinced by Hill either. I think the Saints could easily lose a game before then and the Vikings will be tough for them too.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Mon Nov 30, 2020 6:26 am
  • These last 6 weeks are gonna' be a blast to follow. Saints, Hawks, Pack, Rams etc. Any of these teams are in the mix. Makes it more entertaining when the conference is strong and even.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Mon Nov 30, 2020 6:26 am
  • pmedic920 wrote:
    falcongoggles wrote:I can't think of a year in which home-field advantage ever meant less. here are no or few fans in stadiums. Playoffs aren't 1000EST games, so the Hawks just need to get in.



    This is true but.....

    A bye week would be very nice, and could go a long way in getting healthy.
    I’m expecting a few guys being banged up by then.

    Agreed on that, there's a big difference between teams who get a week off and those who have to go through the wild card. It's a big factor, especially when some teams (like the Seahawks) had an early bye week and players are getting worn out. Having that extra week to recover is a big deal.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Mon Nov 30, 2020 6:31 am
  • Uncle Si wrote:Taysom Hill will lose games for the Saints if he has to keep starting.


    I'll be suprised if Sean Peyton doesn't switch to Jameis next week. He has to know NO can win doing what there doing.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:22 pm
  • Normal year yes #1 seed makes a difference especially for us, this year not as much with crowds and homefield, Weather is going to be the advantage mostly when everything else becomes more even.

    I want the subtle edge, but I also like the team feeling a bit uncomfortable also and pushing themselves.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Mon Nov 30, 2020 9:40 pm
  • After Week 12, the Saints lead the way on 9-2, with Green Bay and the Seahawks both improving to 8-3.

    Solid win for the Seahawks today. The defence, once again, showed signs of improvement and other teams around the league will be thinking we're a more formidable team than they thought 3 or 4 weeks ago. Dunbar returning should help things but the defence is definitely getting on track.
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Re: The fight for the NFC #1 seed
Sun Dec 06, 2020 10:44 am
  • Hopefully the Falcons can put in a good performance and upset the Saints today! Let's go Falcons!
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  • Updated after a worst case scenario Week 13.

    On the positive side, the Rams schedule is now the toughest remaining so hopefully the Seahawks can beat them to the #1 in the NFC West. I like the Vikings too, so I'm hoping and expecting them to beat the Saints when they play.
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  • There's a chance we could miss the playoffs too. Unlikely but insane that it's even a possibility.
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  • We are going to be a wildcard.

    Just like we are almost every year.

    This is a pattern. We turn around after our bad loss and look like we fixed things. We will beat the Jets and then destroy the Washingtons.

    It makes no sense to expect things would change when most of the key important pieces to this team have remained the same. You could argue Metcalf and Adams making more impact changes things, but the guy running the show is the same.

    The Rams are built to beat us and they have a better coaching staff. We are losing that game.

    The 49ers have a better coaching staff. We might lose this one too - maybe all the injuries to the 49ers will allow us to win this one.

    We have to play both. We are ending this season like we always do, with a game to play for the division lead, which we will drop. And then we will get a wildcard berth.
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  • BoltonWanderer wrote:Updated after a worst case scenario Week 13.

    On the positive side, the Rams schedule is now the toughest remaining so hopefully the Seahawks can beat them to the #1 in the NFC West. I like the Vikings too, so I'm hoping and expecting them to beat the Saints when they play.



    Week 14 - Patriots - I'm fully expecting a loss here because anything tied to the Patriots has been a struggle for us

    Week 15 - Jets

    Week 16 - @Seahawks

    Week 17 Cardinals - you guys probably didn't watch the game, but this was a beatdown. Our trash special teams made this game 17 points closer than it should have been - I saw nothing yesterday that makes me think they can hang with us when we play again

    Seahawks:

    Week 14 - Jets - just stop with the "if we lose to the Jets talk" - stop

    Week 15 - @Washington - similar to our game at home against the Patriots, since it'll be across the country and an early start - their DL is nasty

    Week 16 - Rams

    Week 17 - @Niners - same as us against the Cardinals, maybe tougher for Seattle if SF brings some guys back


    I see these as about equal difficulty.

    Here's the good news for both the Seahawks and Rams - since we'll both beat the Jets, it really doesn't matter if we lose to the Patriots or y'all lose to Washington - either way it'll be week 16 for the division.

    So let's say we win the next two, Seattle goes 1-1 - we'd be 10-4, Seattle 9-5 - since Seattle has to beat us to win the division anyways, we'd both then be 10-5 - but we'd have 3 division losses while Seattle has 2.

    What would be more interesting is if we both go in at 10-4, Seattle win, then lose to SF and we beat AZ. We'd both finish 11-5, 3-3 division record. Next goes to common opponents. That breakdown would be:

    Currently Seattle is 6-3 (4-2 outside the division) with games against Jets, FT and Niners left

    Currently LA is 5-4 (4-2 outside the division) with games against the Jets, FT and Cardinals left

    If my scenario above played out, we'd both be 8-4 in common games. Next would be conference games, which would go to the Rams.

    So Seattle's path for the division actually needs wins against both the Rams and Niners (unless the Rams go into Seattle down a game, then a Seattle win would clinch).
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  • One seed is gone. I see us dropping at least 2 in these last 4 and losing the division and getting in a wild card. Likely getting steamrolled by Giants again, Packers, Rams.
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  • Looks like the Saints are about to lose, which is fantastic for the Seahawks.
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  • All results updated for Week 14.

    The Rams have the toughest opponents left, facing two teams with winning records, but the toughest match up will be the Saints against the Chiefs, who are chasing the #1 seed themselves. The Titans are finding form and will be a difficult match for the Packers, so there's sitll a chance the Seahawks can do it.
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  • Saints just lost to a 3 win crap team. I wonder if their fans are giving up on them too?? I doubt it.
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  • Unless crazy things happen (which is possible obviously), it's looking like the Rams/Seahawks week 16 winner will host Tampa Bay in the wildcard round, while the loser will travel to Washington.

    Afterward, it seems unlikely that either team will host the NFCCG if they make it, although I could see the Rams and Seahawks winning in round 1 and round 2 and then playing each other, in which case the NFCW champ would be at home. But homefield isn't as relevant this year.

    The only caveat in this is that I believe the NFL waits to assign primetime matchups for the wildcard round? And I sincerely doubt they put the WFT in primetime, so it's possible it could be an early start in the Sunday slot, I believe.

    For the Rams/Seahawks, I'm not sure it really matters who wins the NFCW this year. Weird season.
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  • Very positive games on at the moment, with both the Saints and the Rams losing. The Rams are now down 20-3 against the Jets, with 8 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. Hold on...
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  • Does anyone know what happens if the Hawks, Saints and Packers all finish 12-4? How will they decide a 3 way tie.
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  • Welshers wrote:Does anyone know what happens if the Hawks, Saints and Packers all finish 12-4? How will they decide a 3 way tie.

    Team with the most positive fans gets the #1. Conference record is the tiebreak.
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  • All results updated.

    The Packers have taken charge but they have two difficult games remaining. The Titans are on a roll, Henry is looking great, and the Titans are tied with the Colts at 10-4 in their division. They will be very motivated to win this game. The Bears also have something to play for, with an off chance they can make the playoffs but they'll want to spoil the Packers momentum anyway.

    I also think there's a good chance the Saints lose to the Vikings too, so if the Seahawks can do their bit and win their remaining games, the #1 seed is possible.
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  • Welshers wrote:Does anyone know what happens if the Hawks, Saints and Packers all finish 12-4? How will they decide a 3 way tie.


    Conference record.

    Packers 10-2 (unless loss is to Bears, then 9-3)
    Saints 10-2
    Seahawks 9-3

    Seahawks 3 seed.
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  • The loss to the giants looms large unfortunately
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