2 Point Try

[KARAVARUS]

It was a fine call.

If we go up by 8 then the Patriots absolutely go for 2 if they score.

If we go up by 7 then there's no way in hell the Patriots go for 2 if they score. They play for OT.

But if we make it, then we go up by 9 and it's game over for the Patriots.

Absolutely the right call to make, with no down-side if you understand how the Patriots would respond.

I did some basic calculations using the following numbers:

Odds of Patriots scoring a TD in a given drive = 30% (this season's numbers)
Odds of a successful PAT = 95% (this season's average)
Odds of a succesful 2 point conversion = 50% (historical average)
Odds of a win in OT = 50% (just a guess here, but quite logical)

After the final TD, Seahawks have the following odds of winning:

If they go for the PAT = 92.1%
If they go for the 2 point conversion = 72.5%

As someone said previously, you may agree with the call, but that's only your opinion.

Thank you. I don't know why I'm so literal and can't let it go. I just want people to be reasonable and admit that if they love the call, it's only their opinion that it was right, because statistically, it's not. At all.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

Call was risky, but I understand it and it complete hindsight I actually loved it.

1. Obvious reason being you score those 2 points, game is pretty much over. If anything you also give your offense the opportunity to take a kill shot in a big moment. An experience and mentality that has been lacking this year. If you make it thats a big rallying effort in terms of confidence and morale. If you miss it, no big deal, imo.. the team is still up a TD.

2. Hindsight being what it is, I wonder if the Pats being down 8 points compared to 7, if wouldn't have changed the process a little bit in their final sequence. Pata made some big plays to get into scoring position on that final drive. But they also made some questionable decisions and allowed the clock to run a bit at times.

Had they been playing for 8 instead of 7, who knows what thier mentality and play decision would have been. They didn't seem all that smart with those last 4 plays, imo. If they were playing for 8 (or 9)... you're probably looking at more desperate Pats team, looking to kill clock much faster, needing a TD + 2 to tie and enough time to get the ball back via onside kick if they miss the 2 pt conversion.

Still chances would have favored Hawks, but weve all see stranger things happen in terms of hard luck both for and against this team.


What it all comes down to, the way I see it... Assuming Pats score whether down 7 or 8, best case scenario for them is a tie.

Worst case scenario for us, is they have a different mentality to put points on the board down 8 or 9, different play calls, ones perhaps where they execute quicker, score, get the onside kick, and then the FG.

Who knows what the outcome would be if they had been down 8 or 9.

Even if the odds of win probability were stacked against them more so with the Seahawks up 8 or 9.

I do know the Pats were playing for 7 pts though, I know they were aggressive moving the ball downfield to get in scoring position, I also know they got kind of cute in thier Goal Line stand perhaps trying to run some clock down.

I know what the outcome of that game was..
So honestly who cares what decision was made.

Because of a better possibility of winning? It's football, you can still lose regardless if the other team is desperate and lucky enough.

Imo, down only 7, with a minute, a couple timeouts, 2 yards from the EZ, Pats didn't seem as desperate as they could have been. Not as desperate as the Seahawks were in trying to prevent the a TD.

And the result ended up being an iconic moment for the 2016 Seahawks and perhaps a little ironic retribution of SB49 that even made the moment a little sweeter.

It was awesome. And who knows how it plays out if the Seahawks were up 8?

For me, in hindsight, Ill take that awesome moment everytime. A moment aided by the fact that Pats got sheepish at the Goal-Line playing for only 7 points. Not 8, not 9 but 7.

 

[TwilightError]

Gutsy call. It's not easy to get that close for a try to put the game away. I liked it.

 

[SeaToTheHawks]

It was a fine call.

If we go up by 8 then the Patriots absolutely go for 2 if they score.

If we go up by 7 then there's no way in hell the Patriots go for 2 if they score. They play for OT.

But if we make it, then we go up by 9 and it's game over for the Patriots.

Absolutely the right call to make, with no down-side if you understand how the Patriots would respond.

I did some basic calculations using the following numbers:

Odds of Patriots scoring a TD in a given drive = 30% (this season's numbers)
Odds of a successful PAT = 95% (this season's average)
Odds of a succesful 2 point conversion = 50% (historical average)
Odds of a win in OT = 50% (just a guess here, but quite logical)

After the final TD, Seahawks have the following odds of winning:

If they go for the PAT = 92.1%
If they go for the 2 point conversion = 72.5%

As someone said previously, you may agree with the call, but that's only your opinion.

Not lying when you said basic. You are leaving so much out its not even funny. This proves nothing.

 

[hawker84]

wrong call. As many stated, you force their hand by making them go for two, not the other way around on the road. And it's not like this team has been ultra successful at it, matter of fact I can't remember the last time we were successful on one.

Bad call by Pete, who continues to make a couple head scratching calls every game. The challenge flag was stupid as well. Good players coach, but his game and clock management decisions are piss poor at times.

 

[Natethegreat]

It was a terrible call. You force the other team to have to get the ball into the end zone twice you don't do it to yourself. You saw how difficult it was for NE to get it in on four tries an 8 point lead forces them to have to do it TWICE IN A ROW.

It was stupid stupid stupid. Put them in a bind not yourself. That said I think Pete learns from this and it was a great win for the Hawks.

 

[Uncle Si]

Gutsy call. It's not easy to get that close for a try to put the game away. I liked it.

I agree...

Didn't work in the end, but i like the attitude

 

[LawlessHawk]

Whether it was a good call or not is definitely a matter of opinion... Okay so they decide to buck the odds and go for it... What I thought was stupid (and typical) was the actual play they ran. A corner fade to one of our short receivers? How about a corner fade to our freaking 6' 7" incredibly athletic tight end who was hotter than the surface of the sun last week with two one handed catches????

 

[Year of The Hawk]

You may not agree with he call but DUMB???? He is anything but dumb. He gave his reason and it was discussed by him and coaching staff before hand. Just because it did not work does not make it DUMB. Jeez the hyperbole and overreaction from armchair coaches is ridiculous.

 

[sutz]

Sorry, but the "against" arguments I'm reading only really make sense if we were ahead by 6 instead of 7. Since we already had a TD+XP lead, going for 2 was fairly low risk in an attempt to make it a 9 pt game.

Said it before, will say it again. IMNSHO it was not that bad of a decision. Especially with the limited time left to play.

 

[jammerhawk]

Quite frankly, I liked the idea behind the play as it would have effectively ended the game. NE would have needed 2 scoring possessions. If anything it was the failed execution of the play that was the real issue there.

It is unlikely NE would have gone for 2 at the end, and lost the game if they failed, so their last drive was an attempt to play in OT.

Big Balls Pete!

I love that aspect of his game, if you want to question anything question the time outs in rather 2nd half, there is an argument to be had there. the decision to go for 2 is something I'd bet Bellichek would have made the same way.

That was an exciting game!

 

[gowazzu02]

Im 50/50 on it. On one hand, IF you make it, the games all but over. Two possession game at that point is huge. BUT I also like the safety blanket of making them convert the 2pt conversion.

At the time I was screaming at the tv. But now I can see some logic in it.

 

[hawkfan68]

No one would be complaining about that call if they would have converted. It made sense. If it was successful, they would be up by 9 points. The Pats would be two scores behind. Had RW been more accurate with the pass, ADB would have had a TD. He threw too high.

 

[Seahawk Sailor]

Call was risky, but I understand it and it complete hindsight I actually loved it.

1. Obvious reason being you score those 2 points, game is pretty much over. If anything you also give your offense the opportunity to take a kill shot in a big moment. An experience and mentality that has been lacking this year. If you make it thats a big rallying effort in terms of confidence and morale. If you miss it, no big deal, imo.. the team is still up a TD.

2. Hindsight being what it is, I wonder if the Pats being down 8 points compared to 7, if wouldn't have changed the process a little bit in their final sequence. Pata made some big plays to get into scoring position on that final drive. But they also made some questionable decisions and allowed the clock to run a bit at times.

Point one, spot on. Game's over if you make it; you're up by a touchdown if you miss.

Point two, moot. The Pats would have been playing for a touchdown no matter what; wouldn't have changed the process in which they tried to accomplish this. The only difference is that they would have known in the back of their minds that they were playing not only for a touchdown, but a two-point conversion as well. That's a big psychological thing for sure. But it's not as big as being down two scores, and very little different than knowing you have to get a touchdown to begin with anyway.

The Pats were focused on getting a touchdown before anything else. You focus on what you have to accomplish first; you can't allow yourself to dwell on the fact you'll have to kick an extra point to tie it or convert a two-point conversion to tie it. The touchdown is paramount. All the rest is afterthought.

And that's why, psychologically, it's great to have gone for two there, make it or not.

 

[OkieHawk]

The only reason I didn't like the call is because it lost me my fantasy football matchup. That extra point by Hauschka would have won it for me. :lol:

 

[gtcotcakya]

I liked the call. I think there's more upside than downside and it worked out alright. Wasn't all that long ago that many on this board were complaining that we didn't have the "go for the throat" mentality. Well, that's what this was and you can't have it both ways...

 

[mikeak]

Again in my OPINION it was just bad because of how we normally play and how we have played in the past.

We rely on the defense to win games. To take the statistically safer bet (sure not a given) and kick the extra point (and no I don't see it as being 50% on those I see it as having missed one which is different) means that at a MINIMUM you are looking at your defense getting one play to stop your opponent from the two...

This is you know the week after we just stopped Buffalo to win the game...

My opinion of these plays doesn't change based on the outcome. I thought that we would read today that someone made a major math error and called the 2pt before the play and they just didn't get it changed.......

 

[Threedee]

This wasn't the same as Bevell calling the stupid play in the SB, because something good could actually have come from it.

 

[White Devil]

When you have an opportunity to put your opponent away.....you take it.

That's what great teams do. I liked the call to go for it....I didn't like the play called.

 

[Jeremy517]

I did some basic calculations using the following numbers:

Odds of Patriots scoring a TD in a given drive = 30% (this season's numbers)
Odds of a successful PAT = 95% (this season's average)
Odds of a succesful 2 point conversion = 50% (historical average)
Odds of a win in OT = 50% (just a guess here, but quite logical)

After the final TD, Seahawks have the following odds of winning:

If they go for the PAT = 92.1%
If they go for the 2 point conversion = 72.5%

Your math is way off. Here is something closer.

The 30% chance of a touchdown is far too low because the Patriots will now be able to go for it on all fourth downs, whereas they're normally punting or kicking a FG on fourth down. I think it is at least 40%.

I'm going with 89% PAT chance for Hauschka and 97.5% for Gostkowski, as that is what each have down over the last 1.5 years. Hauschka is hurt by the O-Line allowing a number of blocks.

I'm going with 50% for 2pc by both teams. Sample size is too small to know this percentage for sure.

I'm going with 50% chance of winning if the game goes into OT.

For simplicity, I'm going with 100% win when up 9, when Gostkowski misses an XP, or when a Patriots 2pc fails. In reality it is somewhere greater than zero because of onside kicks but probably still less than 1%.

Also for simplicity, I'm saying that the Patriots don't leave the Seahawks enough time to score in regulation if the game is tied. There is actually a small chance of that.

When going for two:
50% chance of being up 9. When up 9, 100% win
50% chance of being up 7. When up 7: 60% win when the Patriots don't score. (40% * 2.5%) win when Pats score and Gostkowski misses XP. (40% * 97.5% * 50%) when Patriots score, make the XP, Seahawks win in OT.

When kicking the XP:
89% percent chance of being up 8. When up 8: 60% win when the Patriots don't score. (40% * 50%) win when Pats score and miss the 2pc. (40% * 50% * 50%) when the Patriots score, make the 2pc, and Seahawks win in OT
11% chance of being up 7. Same as up 7 percentages above.

Win percentage by going for it: (.5 * 1.00) + (.5 * .6) + (.5 * .4 * .025) + (.5 * .4 * .975 * .5) = 90.25%
Win percentage by kicking the XP: (.89 * .6) + (.89 * .4 * .5) + (.89 * .4 * .5 * .5) + (.11 * .6) + (.11 * .4 * .025) + (.11 * .4 * .975 * .5) = 88.96%

Using the percentages above, it is slightly better to go for two.