2018 Seattle Mariners regular season thread

[Hawk-Lock]

Yeah Oakland is getting way too close for my liking. As a Mariner fan, I'm starting to get that pessimistic feel once again. The A's catching up to us more has to do with how hot they've been than how we've played. Dipoto needs to work his magic and find a way to add a piece or two to keep Oakland behind us. Hoping Pax can stay healthy and bring it tonight.

 

[sutz]

I have to believe that Oakland can't keep up that pace for much longer. Nobody wins at an 80% clip forever.

 

[DJrmb]

I have to believe that Oakland can't keep up that pace for much longer. Nobody wins at an 80% clip forever.

I was thinking exactly this as well. However, that really doesn't matter at this point, those wins are in the books. They won at an 80% clip long enough where they are pretty much completely caught up now. They don't have to win at 80% to snatch the Wildcard anymore. They only need to win 3 more games than the Mariners do in the next 62 games...

 

[Shanegotyou11]

Yeah Oakland is getting way too close for my liking. As a Mariner fan, I'm starting to get that pessimistic feel once again. The A's catching up to us more has to do with how hot they've been than how we've played. Dipoto needs to work his magic and find a way to add a piece or two to keep Oakland behind us. Hoping Pax can stay healthy and bring it tonight.

Its how we have been trained. Ms win 94 games. Oakland wins 95. Im praying its different this yr. I want October baseball so bad. The state would be rocking.

 

[Shanegotyou11]

I have to believe that Oakland can't keep up that pace for much longer. Nobody wins at an 80% clip forever.

I was thinking exactly this as well. However, that really doesn't matter at this point, those wins are in the books. They won at an 80% clip long enough where they are pretty much completely caught up now. They don't have to win at 80% to snatch the Wildcard anymore. They only need to win 3 more games than the Mariners do in the next 62 games...

I believe we have 10 more H2H games vs oakland. I think 6 or 7 down there. Those are gonna be huge. The crazy thing is NY is in striking distance for us and oakland.

Can you imagine for a moment we pass ny and Oakland passes ny. We get #1 WC and one game playoff at safeco.


I honestly gave myself goosebumps.

 

[sutz]

I have to believe that Oakland can't keep up that pace for much longer. Nobody wins at an 80% clip forever.

I was thinking exactly this as well. However, that really doesn't matter at this point, those wins are in the books. They won at an 80% clip long enough where they are pretty much completely caught up now. They don't have to win at 80% to snatch the Wildcard anymore. They only need to win 3 more games than the Mariners do in the next 62 games...

Oh, yes, I understand. The Mariners have to get back on the winning side and stay there.

One thing, on the whole season so far, the M's are at a .600 pace, which is not so bad in baseball. That's a 97 win season if we continue. Would definitely love to do better, of course. Would be nice to get to 100 wins again, and that would almost guarantee at least a WC game. Problem is we'd need the 'Stros or NY/Bos to have a near epic breakdown to catch them, but hey, stranger things have happened.

But none of that matters if the M's maintain the tepid pace they had in July. Won the first series of the 2d half, need to continue doing that. Especially in our H2H matchups with Houston and Oakland and the other ALW teams.

 

[Crizilla]

If you look at all the computer simulations and pythagorean records, Oakland has been as good as Seattle if not better. The reality is Oakland has been better against Houston than Seattle but Seattle has taken care of business so far against Oakland. That's why Seattle is slightly ahead of Oakland. Things off set because there's so many games in the season so you mistakingly take your mind off what's actually going on. Look, I don't have all the answers but what I do know from studying and researching the enemy teams we are up against, things tend to get skewed because of how teams win, not just that they win. M's have been the best in close games but their run differential isnt good. Look at Houston's run differential. You would think they would have a 15 to 20 game lead on Seattle but they don't. Looking at Oakland's stats you would think they would be in the current wild card spot the M's are in, but they aren't. So what's really going on is the battles are much closer than you think but most people aren't aware of it because the sports media subverts all this info and just wants to talk about NY and Boston all the time. No mainstream commentary goes over this stuff. Bob Melvin knows Seattle, he knows what's going on, he knows they are right there with Seattle and NY.

If you guys really wanna know what's going on I'll tell you. Right now across the entire MLB there is a huge battle going on where teams in contention are actually running simulations on computers all day every day. Thousands of them. These algorithms that are constantly running can "break" when a trade happens, a player gets sent to the DL, etc. That's why Dipoto was brought in because he's more of a tech savvy, data analyst type manager. Doesn't mean old school type managers can't win but what it does do is allows you to make better predictions or "see" what will happen in advance over the course of the season. It's not 100% correct all the time, all I'm saying is I have data from high level sources that indicates the AL West is the best division in baseball and nobody should be surprised things are as close as they are.

 

[DJrmb]

I have to believe that Oakland can't keep up that pace for much longer. Nobody wins at an 80% clip forever.

I was thinking exactly this as well. However, that really doesn't matter at this point, those wins are in the books. They won at an 80% clip long enough where they are pretty much completely caught up now. They don't have to win at 80% to snatch the Wildcard anymore. They only need to win 3 more games than the Mariners do in the next 62 games...

Oh, yes, I understand. The Mariners have to get back on the winning side and stay there.

One thing, on the whole season so far, the M's are at a .600 pace, which is not so bad in baseball. That's a 97 win season if we continue. Would definitely love to do better, of course. Would be nice to get to 100 wins again, and that would almost guarantee at least a WC game. Problem is we'd need the 'Stros or NY/Bos to have a near epic breakdown to catch them, but hey, stranger things have happened.

But none of that matters if the M's maintain the tepid pace they had in July. Won the first series of the 2d half, need to continue doing that. Especially in our H2H matchups with Houston and Oakland and the other ALW teams.

Yeah, if the M's get back to .600 pace then I think they'll be totally fine. They just have to get there and stay there like you said.

I hope Colorado can help us out a bit after beating up on us. Hopefully they have another sweep in them for those pesky A's.

 

[Thepeelsessions]

Oh give me a break! Texas was leading Oakland 10-2 in the 7th, and it's now tied 10-10 in the 9th. Unbelievable. Oakland is for real. The Ms better stop fooling around. The offense needs to wake up.

 

[Bobblehead]

FFS Rangers.. damn

 

[West TX Hawk]

Oh give me a break! Texas was leading Oakland 10-2 in the 7th, and it's now tied 10-10 in the 9th. Unbelievable. Oakland is for real. The Ms better stop fooling around. The offense needs to wake up.

Just proves how badly Oakland wants this-11 unanswered runs from the 7th inning on to win 13-10. Meanwhile, we've lost 7 out of 10 and our lead is down to 1.5.

As much as I want to see us finally make the postseason I don't see it happening. You cannot sustain living on 1 run wins all year. We had an incredible run to win all those comeback and tight games but the magic has worn out and we're starting to see the sum of our actual talent level. We've lost 16 out of the last 30 including 10 out of the last 17.

1b, 3b, C, CF all lack consistent offensive production and our pen sans Diaz has been shaky along with an average rotation. Cano and Pax back will obviously help, but it's not enough with the current roster and I don't envision Jerry pulling off a dynamic blockbuster before the deadline either.

Oakland has a more consistent lineup and I think they pass us soon. We'll see if there's still some fight left with our guys.

 

[Shanegotyou11]

Down to 1.5 game lead. Ugh

 

[Hawk-Lock]

I laughed at the people who were rooting for the Astros against the A's a couple weeks ago. We were never going to catch the Astros. Now the A's have all the momentum and can overtake us by the weekend.

Dee never should have thrown that ball. He should have held it, kept the runner at third, and trusted Diaz to make the next out. Also not sure why Seager was sent home, we could have used that run. Here we go again with Paxton. He is suppose to be back within the week, but would it really shock anyone if he missed more time? Until Pax can prove he can stay healthy and pitch consistently, this team needs a true ace.

We need to get a win today, both teams should be familiar with the opposing starting pitcher as Leake spent a lot of time in the NL and Holland used to play in Texas. We were due to regress, but I didn't expect Oakland become one of the best teams.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Starting to feel like same crap, every year mode again. Sucks.
And if Paxton is out for an extended period of time, fork.

 

[Uncle Si]

Starting to feel like same crap, every year mode again. Sucks.
And if Paxton is out for an extended period of time, fork.

19 games over .500

this isnt "same crap" mode.

Team needs a spark though

 

[Shanegotyou11]

I do agree about Paxton. He can never be healthy all yr and mentally strughes at times. He is a very good pitcher but not a ace to me. He isnt the Big Unit or Felix or kershaw in their prime. Idk if he ever will.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Thus, "starting to feel"
I don't think they are the same team, but it certainly is VERY easy to get back in to the here we go mode again.

 

[sutz]

Evened the series, at least. :2thumbs:

 

[Shanegotyou11]

Evened the series, at least. :2thumbs:

Split the series. Another day off tomorrow and then 3 game set vs LA.

 

[Crizilla]

Diaz will most likely reach 100 career saves later this year. That would give him 100 career saves at age 24. Mariano Rivera didn't reach 100 career saves until age 29. He holds the all time saves record with 652 saves. Crazy.