Am I The Only HR Handicapper Here?

[Appyhawk]

I've taken a couple weeks off from playing. Been really busy. Still am, but I also need to get some $ coming in.
Noticed they ran at Emerald today, and had nice fields for a change, with few scratches. That's encouraging. I didn't follow, but I''ll check out the stat sheet for future reference.

 

[Appyhawk]

One thing kinda 'cool' about Emerald is they don't start until about 7 in the evening my time. It isn't really cooling down here much then but at least the blistering heat is breaking. Besides that my chores will be done and I'm inside with ac going and trying to finish off my evening meal. Great time to jump into a race card!
First race today has the 6 favored @ 6/5. Can't play a horse like that, but the horse is names Sherm! I don't know the story, but...in Seattle it's probly a crime to bet against a horse names Sherm, right?

 

[Seahawkfan80]

A friend of mine is an electrician. He is working on a barn soon in a ritzy neighborhood in the mountains. He mentioned stud fees for the owners horse. If it takes or not...each effort natural or artificial is 250k. Yep, we are in the wrong business. :shock:

 

[Appyhawk]

:lol: :lol:
Yep...we should have been a HORSE!

It's only going to last for 5 days, but I'm looking forward to the change of racing scenery today at Keeneland.
Kicks off about noon CT.

 

[Appyhawk]

Today was 4th day of racing at Keeneland. I started slow Day 1, but was encouraged. Did better day 2. Did well day 3, doubling my bank. KILLED IT today. My handicapping today was stronger than it has been for a long spell. Wonderful day for me and nearly tripled my day 3 bank. I cold picked the super R9 which pd 44.28 for a dime. I almost never play supers for a dime...usually at least $1.
The last race (R10) really frosted the cake for my day.
Played my 3,7,10 box ex and tri. Chose from 2,4,5,8,9 for bottom but quit after tri. It came in 10/7/3/2 with 4 for 5th. I didn't play EX5 or super. Super@ 97.07. That sure would have been nice for a dime.
10 W@ 26.40 (10 was 12-1)
10/7 EX @ 228.60 (7 was 13-1)
10/7/3 TRI@ 173.35 (3 was heavy fave @ 4/5)
So now I'm all jacked for the last day. Bummed it's only a 5 day meet, but I think Breeders Cup is at Keeneland this year. BC weekend is my horse racing orgasm. :lol: (unless I have BAD luck!)

 

[Appyhawk]

Another day of great racing at KEE to close the meet. I knew this card would be tough, and it was. I had the horses but I just got too cute and At least I was cautious enough to not go wild, so I still have most of what I won yesterday in my bank. I won about 40 and spent about 60. Left more than 500 on the table for not making my plays. I do that a lot. Comes with being risk averse. Bummed the meet is over. Back to Belmont for me probably, unless I get involved at MTH or go back to GPX.
All this corona thing sure is messing things up. More jocks tested positive yesterday. Luis Saez and Flavien Pratt the most recent victims. Lucky to still have racing going on. I'd be up a dry creek without that.

 

[Largent80]

Nice to see racing going on, but in my ass backwards state we cant even wager online. I quit caring.

 

[Appyhawk]

I should kick myself. I had the Trifecta of the fake, pussified Belmont. Didn’t play it because I don’t have an online betting account. I still think Max Player would have loved the 12 furlongs. Oh well, we will NEVER know.
I love how the Honor Code 3 yos are performing. He is the final HUGE AP Indy son at stud.

You are absolutely right about the Honor Code offspring, a fact that has not been lost on me. My betting had paid attention and that attention has paid me back. Got another one just last week at KEE.
I barely participated at all in the fake Bel Stakes. I won the little ex play I made but it wasn't anything very exciting.

Hey Largent...I see you're in Texas. My sympathies, although I say that knowing I don't have much room to brag. I refused to take my horses to Texas while I was running cause they had no simulcast money added so the purses aren't as worthwhile. Maybe that will change before long though if the elections go for change. They tried to kill it in Kansas too. They DID kill horse racing tracks here, which ruined me as my biz was basically built around running Ks stbrds. But they were greedy enough to want to cash in on people betting races (and poker etc) so they re-enabled online wagering accounts. So at least I still have a way to profit on the races. But no reason for me to consider moving to Texas. Kind of funny that I was in San Antonio during Belmont Stakes weekend last year and logged in to my account which resulted in me cashing real well on the Belmont with Sir Winston on top. I won that race top to bottom. Win/Ex/Tri. and especially the super which paid about $1750 for a dime. I only had 5 horses under Winston. He pd about $26 for the W. That race was my score for that year! And followed it with the 8 horse (J Ort aboard IIRC) winning the next race to pay $28. One of my sons lives in San Antonio and has a spectacular pool in back yard that looked real inviting to celebrate my big win!

 

[Appyhawk]

I should kick myself. I had the Trifecta of the fake, pussified Belmont. Didn’t play it because I don’t have an online betting account. I still think Max Player would have loved the 12 furlongs. Oh well, we will NEVER know.
I love how the Honor Code 3 yos are performing. He is the final HUGE AP Indy son at stud.

Couple of pertinent articles in todays online issue from BloodHorse. One about Special Honor (Honor AP) and the other about a current trend in inbreeding in North America. I know the potential mates for my mare that produce the best dosage numbers with highest comparable mating offspring racing results involve quite a bit of inbreeding. My mare is a Prospector bred mare (ped loaded with big names) and I value her highly. She is/was a very talented runner and although of naturally hot temperament has since been a wonderful companion. Her ped is already including some inbreeding from the Northern/Native Dancer lines.
Just thought you might want to check those articles out.

 

[Appyhawk]

Here ya go Seagal.
R9 at Toga today. 7F D Stake.
#7 Honor Way ML 20-1
The 7 (T/ Baker/Franco aboard) tops ped rankings over the 9/5/2 AND has posted best number at this race condition. 2 and 5 and 9 will be the race faves IMO.
Can you afford NOT to take a W/Plc shot @ 20-1? Doubt the 7 will go off at 20-1 though, despite the assemblage of talent around him. Examples: #2 T/T Amoss and J. Cohen. #5 T/C Brown and J/Castellano. #9 T/ B Mott and J/Ort Jr. #8 T/Cannizo and J/Rosario (horse the top closer).
I rate this a chaos race where anything could happen. #7 is 10/6/7 in 35 starts. It will definitely be a challenge for the 7 to win this, but at 20-1...?
PS: Just to stoke the fire with a dab of conspiracy theory, Franco just won R1 on the 7 horse @ 19-1. :lol:
Oh boy. There's more. Franco on the 7 just upset in R6. W @ 6-1.
I'm thinking all this jinxes his chances in the 9th, right?

 

[Appyhawk]

Right. I jinxed it. Don't know what happened to my 2 longshots (7 and 8). They're probly still looking for them!
At least I got the W/EX/TRI. Came in 5/9/2/6. I didn't have the 6 to get the sup.
5 W pd 6.00
5/9 EX pd 24.40
5/9/2 .50 TRI pd 14.87

 

[Appyhawk]

WOOHOO!
Just got my biggest hit since I had the big day at Keeneland. Saratoga R3 hit the super which pd 267.55 for a dime.
I don't play for dimes.

 

[Seahwkgal]

Any thoughts on Baffert getting caught doping(outside of CA, of course :roll: )?
I am looking forward to the Shared Belief this Saturday. Honor AP in a 6 horse field. Two Baffert horse looking to get Derby points. I doubt if Honor AP wins. He is screaming for more distance. The distance does not favor him but I am sure he will make a nice run. This is a training race for him. Kinda the way Sheriffs trains.

 

[Appyhawk]

"Any thoughts on Baffert getting caught doping"
Can't say I'm surprised. I AM surprised they haven't swept it under the rug in appeal process. That they haven't gives me hope there will be continued improvement for the sport.
Shared Belief is at DMR? I rarely play the Cal tracks any more unless SA is scheduled to host BCup.
I'm embroiled at Saratoga. One of my two favorite meets. But it's a tough track to win at consistently. Happy to have recorded my 4th winning day in a row today, although 2 of those days were in the technical decision category, including today. But I'll take it. Toga can be tough sledding. Anyway Saturday is a huge stakes day at Toga with the Whitney, Personal Ensign, Jerkins, and Bowling Green all on the card.
I usually kind of stick to playing one track at a time. Cuts down on the time and work load. Plus every time I try to skip around seems like they eat my lunch and I'm a sore loser! :roll:

 

[Seahwkgal]

There is another Honor Code worth watching. Creed.
Awesome name, awesome connections(trained by Shug). 3 starts 2 wins and one place. He loves the slop.
The pedigree on this boy is insanely good. RF 3x3 to Weekend Surprise. :irishdrinkers:
I am thinking he might be running at the Spa at some point.

 

[Appyhawk]

Just got the card today and haven't opened it, but I think I saw an article in Bloodhorse that there is an Honor Code in the Whitney Saturday. I usually don't open cards until night before race day. My software profiles, but only does it once.
I'll try to stamp the name Creed in my memory banks. Like that'll help... :lol:
Another technical decision win today. That makes 5 winning days in a row at Sar. Knowing Toga thatmeans I'm due for a hiccup.
Prime Power was strong today. Quite a few really low priced winners, which is mostly what Prime is good for.

 

[Appyhawk]

8/1 Saratoga
* Personal Ensign Stakes will have Point of Honor trying to compete with Midnight Bisou.
Tough sledding there.
* Whitney will have Code of Honor trying to deal with Tom's d'Etat and Improbable.

 

[Seahwkgal]

There is no Honor Code running in the Whitney. Code Of Honor is not an offspring of Honor Code even though there is a 2017 Honor Code colt named Code Of Honor who appears to have not raced yet. No matter maybe next year Honor AP, Max Player or Creed will be in the race?
As to this year’s Whitney, I am rooting for Improbable. Out of an AP Indy mare. Mr Buff is a paternal grandson of Indy but a long shot. FWIW, I am very biased towards anything Slew/AP Indy related.
As for the Personal Ensign, I am rooting for Point of Honor who is out of a Bernardini mare. Speaking of Bernardini, he is showing signs of being a really good broodmare sire.

 

[Appyhawk]

:lol: I didn't even look past the name. Fooled me!
Shonuff. Jinxed it at 5 days in a row. Argh. Had it in hand too, but loosened the purse strings in the last two and got fooled in both. Lost a few bucks today. Not much though. In Toga terms I came out in good shape only -$7.
Tomorrow is a big day. Hope I set the table for a nice score somewhere during the day. Only take one!

Seagal, at one point I maintained a database of sireline success filtered by race condition win rate. The race conditions were md/msw and/or dirt sprint, dirt route, turf route, and turf sprint. That gave me my list of ranked/preferred sireline entrants for each race. But I never ignore race shape and energy distribution, or connection figs. I just use sireline for breaking ties etc. Now my softwarwe program does kind of the same thing and so does the profiler, so I quit doing all that manual work with excel.
I spend quite a bit of time late winter every year in equibase or werks creating pedigrees of potential matches for my prize mare every. It's a lot of fun looking at the resulting dosage and what the results have been for similar matches with each sire. So far haven't followed through as I already have more horses than I can afford. But I can't bear to part with any of them!

 

[Appyhawk]

Done capping first half of the card Seagal.
Personal Ensign is R5.
#1 Abounding Joy Brisset/J Ort
#2 Motion Emotion Baltas/OrtJr
#3 Midnight Bisou Asmussen/Santana
#4 Vexatious Sisterson/Lezcano
#5 Bossy Bride Altras/Alvarado
#6 Point Of Honor Weaver/Castellano
Looking at race shape it looks on paper as though we could have a classic speed duel (2,3,4)gate to wire, and this is 9 frikken furlong race! It looks like the perfect setup for the 6 horse, Point of Honor. Still not convinced anyone can beat Midnight Bisou, but this looks like a huge test. Vexatious looks tough too.
I'm thinking odds on 3 and 6 will be so low this race might not be worth playing.