As of now is RW top 5 QB?

[Seymour]

Interesting stuff. He's w/out a doubt one of the best closers we have ever seen. It's a trip how that switch gets turned on in the 2nd half of games, and especially in the 4th quarter.

Maybe they should do like they did with Bobby Boucher and teach him to visualize 4th quarter / down by 6 during pre game.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Water sucks, Gatorade tastes better

 

[Seymour]

Water sucks, Gatorade tastes better

LOL....Ya Russell! Recovery water sucks, and leads to more concussions. :lol:

 

[Popeyejones]

RW was #10 last year. Just behind Drew Brees.

Is Drew Brees not a top 5 QB?

Not a comment on Wilson, but no, I don't think Brees is a top 5 QB anymore.

The Saints have been trending this way for awhile, but last year more than ever they were increasingly investing in and relying on their run game and defense to mask over Bree's declining arm talent.

He's still top 10 IMO, but he just put up his worst season since 2006, and you can see it on game days too.

His numbers fell short statistically his rating was higher. Which I suppose depends on how you want to look at it.

Yep. Definitely. I'd look at it this way:

Brees had the third lowest air yards per attempt in the league last year (and down by .7 yards from two years ago for him too).

On average last year he was throwing shorter passes than he's ever thrown in his career, and it's because of those shorter passes that last year he has the highest completion percentage and lowest interception rate of his career also. That's what explains the rise in QB rating.

Last year Drew Brees basically aged into being the 2017 version of 2012 Alex Smith.

Edit: forgot the link -- https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards

 

[Smellyman]

Interesting stuff. He's w/out a doubt one of the best closers we have ever seen. It's a trip how that switch gets turned on in the 2nd half of games, and especially in the 4th quarter.

Yes, it is like we are watching two very different quarterbacks. The Wilson of the 4th quarter is a completely different beast all together.

Severely hamstrung by the worst, least imaginative OC ever and Matadors Cable ans his scheme put in front of him.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

How he didn't get hurt last year behind that pathetic joke of a line is still a mystery.

 

[Spin Doctor]

Interesting stuff. He's w/out a doubt one of the best closers we have ever seen. It's a trip how that switch gets turned on in the 2nd half of games, and especially in the 4th quarter.

Yes, it is like we are watching two very different quarterbacks. The Wilson of the 4th quarter is a completely different beast all together.

Severely hamstrung by the worst, least imaginative OC ever and Matadors Cable ans his scheme put in front of him.

I definitely think that is how Russ has gotten the habits he has, however he has some culpability here as well. These issues have to be beaten out of him now. I've noticed that since 2015 his mechanics have really been going down hill, and that he has been playing a much looser game. Even with a clean pocket he is making some egregious errors in his mechanical execution that really need to be addressed. His internal clock also needs to be rectified, he holds the ball longer than any QB in the league no named Watson. This means giving up on some plays, or going for cheeky yards on the ground sooner, rather than later. As I said earlier, my suspicion is that this is why Schottenheimer was brought in. He runs a much tighter ship than Bevell and he is also who Brees credits with cleaning up his game.

Not a fan of Schottenheimer's scheme's, and playcalling, but the guy may be just what Russ needs at this point in time. A drill sergeant like figure that specializes in coaching up QB's.

 

[mrt144]

Interesting stuff. He's w/out a doubt one of the best closers we have ever seen. It's a trip how that switch gets turned on in the 2nd half of games, and especially in the 4th quarter.

Yes, it is like we are watching two very different quarterbacks. The Wilson of the 4th quarter is a completely different beast all together.

Severely hamstrung by the worst, least imaginative OC ever and Matadors Cable ans his scheme put in front of him.

I definitely think that is how Russ has gotten the habits he has, however he has some culpability here as well. These issues have to be beaten out of him now. I've noticed that since 2015 his mechanics have really been going down hill, and that he has been playing a much looser game. Even with a clean pocket he is making some egregious errors in his mechanical execution that really need to be addressed. His internal clock also needs to be rectified, he holds the ball longer than any QB in the league no named Watson. This means giving up on some plays, or going for cheeky yards on the ground sooner, rather than later. As I said earlier, my suspicion is that this is why Schottenheimer was brought in. He runs a much tighter ship than Bevell and he is also who Brees credits with cleaning up his game.

Not a fan of Schottenheimer's scheme's, and playcalling, but the guy may be just what Russ needs at this point in time. A drill sergeant like figure that specializes in coaching up QB's.

To me the biggest mechanical issue is plant foot either not being utilized at all on some throws or in some cases planted in a direction that doesn't exactly coincide with that of the pass. I hate the term happy feet, and in some cases it just doesn't apply like on some of the roll right deep PA passes but that's where I see an obvious consistent mechanical issue. It could be explained by malperception on time to throw and the ability of the OL, it could be lingering effects of his knee injury and playing with a brace, it could be people or himself not being more accountable for that kinda stuff, even a combo of some of those factors.

But I disagree on the internal clock thing - Bevell did him no favors for large stretches of time, RW was seemingly developed absent a heuristic for check downs, nor did they exist fundamentally on a significant portion of pass plays, nor is his propensity to take off running given the value those plays generate an inherently bad thing.

It really is hard for me to decouple the Bevell from RW given some of the curious things asked of the offense without a safety net for RW much of the time.

 

[IndyHawk]

I really don't get the questioning of Russell Wilson. My god, what does he have to do!?!?

Having the ability to throw consistently to the middle of the field would be a great start. Moving up in the pocket and throwing the ball would be cool to.

Yeah he absolutely sucks throwing to the middle of the field... :roll:

OP..Love how you come up with these charts and this one certainly has good flash to it.
I'm just curious if we could get the number of passes on it?
I believe the middle will be a pretty low number but should be used much more.

 

[adeltaY]

RW was #10 last year. Just behind Drew Brees.

Is Drew Brees not a top 5 QB?

Not a comment on Wilson, but no, I don't think Brees is a top 5 QB anymore.

The Saints have been trending this way for awhile, but last year more than ever they were increasingly investing in and relying on their run game and defense to mask over Bree's declining arm talent.

He's still top 10 IMO, but he just put up his worst season since 2006, and you can see it on game days too.

His numbers fell short statistically his rating was higher. Which I suppose depends on how you want to look at it.

Yep. Definitely. I'd look at it this way:

Brees had the third lowest air yards per attempt in the league last year (and down by .7 yards from two years ago for him too).

On average last year he was throwing shorter passes than he's ever thrown in his career, and it's because of those shorter passes that last year he has the highest completion percentage and lowest interception rate of his career also. That's what explains the rise in QB rating.

Last year Drew Brees basically aged into being the 2017 version of 2012 Alex Smith.

Edit: forgot the link -- https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards

Drew Brees is Alex Smith level now? I don't see Alex Smith slaughtering the Panthers through the air or putting up 24 unanswered against the Vikes in Minny in one half in the playoffs. If he had to shoulder the load, he could. Payton just did a great job taking pressure off him, which shouldn't detract from his greatness. He shouldn't have to throw for 5000 yards to be considered top 5.

I see the decline in arm strength argument, but Brees still consistently puts the ball in great spots to allow for max YAC, few QBs have his accuracy.

Also, I'm very confinement fender was trolling haha.

 

[adeltaY]

Yes and no. Wilson is an enigma, an oddity at the QB position. This is why he is always bound to get criticism and second guessing thrown his way. Wilson's biggest issue is his lack of consistency. There are points in a game where he will miss the easiest 'gimmie' throws, or not see guys that are running wide open. This happens even if he gets good protection. When he is in these modes he may as well be Tarvaris Jackson.

The other side of Wilson is the terminator. God smiles from the heavens above, and grants Wilson the power to smite his foes with robotic like proficiency. When he is on he looks like the greatest QB to ever play this game. I would take Wilson when he is in the zone over Brady, Montana, Elway, etc. Nobody can stop the man in this mode, he looks almost as if he is possessed. He will make seemingly impossible throws, and he will look like Barry Sanders juking defenders in the backfield, as he throws a perfect pass with defenders draped over him.

This can be a bit jarring. In most games he will look like some back-up QB barely clinging to a job until the late third, and fourth Quarter. This, rightfully so leaves many fans confused, and wondering what exactly Russell Wilson is as a player. This may be why we brought in Schottenheimer. Bevell looked like a pushover, and punching bag for the players. People did not respect him or his schemes. Whenever I saw him he gave me the impression of a meek man that was unable to reign in his players. His authority was also greatly diminished by the co-coordinator set up he had with Cable. He was referred to as a passing game coordinator, and Cable as a running game coordinator. Schottenheimer on the other hand is known for being a hard a---.

This all goes back to Russ. He doesn't play within the confines of the offense. He has always been a QB that made up his own rules as he went. We like to view him as a rank and file guy, but in reality Russ bends every basic rule of playing QB on a regular basis. He is the biggest rogue in the organization on the field. This leads to interesting results that are both good, both bad. He can accomplish this due to his unique talents at QB. Unfortunately, because of this loose style he is lacking in fundamentals as a passer. He does not have the same internal clock that a QB such as Hasselbeck had. It simply does not exist for Wilson because of the miracles he is able to pull off in the backfield.

This bit is important for QB's becoming a consistent force. Wilson needs to learn when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. He will often forgo checkdown routes if they are available, because he knows he may be able to make something big happen. Unfortunately, Pete and Bevell encouraged this style of play. I like to call it hero ball. This style of play leads to awkward throwing positions, and less than ideal mechanics on a regular basis. This is why we see Russ consistently overthrow his receivers. Even if he gets a clear pocket, Russ tends to move around excessively. This is a recipe for bad throws. He doesn't need to be Brees, but he sure could learn a lot from the way he sets up his blockers, and manipulates the pocket. This will lead to more consistent play from Russ, and ultimately elevate his game to the next level.

Russ has developed some really bad habits, and I'm starting to think that maybe this is why a guy like Schottenheimer was brought in over some of the other big names on the market. Schotty is a no non-sense, old school style of coordinator. While I don't think much of his offenses and schemes, I do think he will bring a lot of value in taming our wild stallion of a QB. I think he was brought in more for this reason than his merits as a coordinator. He will demand much more out of Wilson than Bevell, and he will not sit back and be an "oh shucks" type of OC like Bevell was. He will demand accountability from his Quarterback.

So essentially what I said is, yes and no. He is both a top five QB, and not a top five QB.

Russell Wilson is the only QB that struggles at points during games...fascinating. Brady, Montana, Manning are always perfect all the way through.

I am not a simplistic Wilson homer blind to criticism. But Wilson's faults are no worse than other QBs faults. Brady struggles when he gets hit/is under pressure. Manning struggled in big time playoff games. I can go on and on. But your points are not rooted in facts. Wilson does play within the confines of the offense. The idea that he runs around every play is simply a stereotype of him than reality. We think he runs around every play because often that ONE time he runs and spins around he scores a TD...ORRR there is a defender already in his face. I will respect Wilson critics more when they support their arguments with film and statistics. Otherwise this is nothing

Also, Tavaris Jackson was a pathetic comparison. The only thing they have in common is the box they might check off on the Census

You're getting the wrong idea here. Wilson is a good QB, in fact when he is in his zone there is no other QB I would rather have on my team. That being said, Wilson is a QB that will go three whole quarters without doing anything on a regular basis.

For example if you look at his first half stats vs his second half stats they tell a very different story: http://www.nfl.com/player/russellwilson ... ionalstats

Wilson has a 78 rating in the first half and only completes 59 percent of his passes. He also only averages 6.1 yards per completion here while throwing for only 8 TD's and 6 interceptions. His passing through the first three quarters of last season looked very mediocre when you look at the charts by quarter. The fourth quarter however is a different story entirely. In the 4th Quarter Wilson completes close to 70 percent of his passes, threw for 19 touchdowns, which is more than in his entire three quarters combined, and only threw 1 interception.... He does all of this while averaging 9.4 yards in the air.

This is what most people are confused about. The story of four quarters -- Wilson is utterly mediocre if we look at his first 3 Quarters. Other QB's do not have that kind of differential in their play:

http://www.nfl.com/player/tombrady/2504 ... ionalstats - averages a 100 QB rating in each quarter with similar yards per completion, and completion percentage. The big outlier here is the TD numbers in the second quarter, which is 16 -- much more than any of his other quarters.

http://www.nfl.com/player/carsonwentz/2 ... ionalstats - In all four quarters he is pretty consistent, the interceptions are all evenly spread, and the rating never dips below 90 except for when he is within 7 points.

http://www.nfl.com/player/drewbrees/250 ... ionalstats - First quarter is dismal, but he is pretty consistent from then on going forward.

http://www.nfl.com/player/philiprivers/ ... ionalstats - First quarter he does nothing, but then proceeds to have a fairly consistent three quarters

http://www.nfl.com/player/matthewstaffo ... ionalstats - A QB that some may call streaky. He never has a QB rating dip below 89, interception totals are spread out evenly between first and second half, numbers are pretty consistent.

http://www.nfl.com/player/benroethlisbe ... ionalstats - Okay first quarter, most of his interceptions happen here, but he goes on to be consistent throughout the entire game.

You can get where I'm going here. Most of these QB's are pretty consistent throughout the game. Russell Wilson on the other hand doesn't really get going here until the third quarter, and even his third quarter statistics are not that great. His fourth quarter statistics on the other hand are on the next level. In all of the other Quarters he struggles to even complete 60 percent of his passes, in the fourth quarter he completes a whopping 67 percent at 9.7 yards per clip. He only throws for 1 interception here, and he throws for more TDs than all of his other quarters combined. In fact, he is only 300 yards away from throwing for more YARDS in the fourth quarter than he does in all of his other quarters combined.

This right here is what I'm talking about.. Wilson is a completely different animal in the fourth quarter. Even his third quarter is not that special. This goes to show you what his potential is and how he is not quite living up to it. When I was looking at these stats it blew my mind. No other QB performed like this in the fourth quarter, those numbers were godlike, it especially become perplexing when we compared it to his other three quarters.

Looking at this stats really confirmed what I saw in game, Wilson really takes longer than most QB's to ramp up.

Another interesting tidbit is that Wilson held the ball for the second longest amount of time out of any QB last season: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/pass ... e-to-throw

The longest being Watson, whom is a rookie, and has a much smaller sample size due to his injury.

Wilson is an oddity when you pry deeper in to statistics. It goes into what I was saying about being inconstant. Yes, every QB has had their bad days, and stretches, but what we can surmise from the numbers is that he has long stretches in games where he isn't very effective. I chock it down to not playing disciplined football. On the flipside of things, he also has some of the best fourth quarter stats I have ever seen. He has the ability to be one of the greatest, it is just that he is not living up to his potential. In the fourth quarter he enters another zone. All of the sudden it is like he gets hyper awareness. He starts stepping up in the pocket more, gets rid of the ball quicker, and navigates the pocket better. It is like we see two different quarterbacks playing during every game.

This analysis is based on one year. His career numbers don't line up with the first and fourth quarter disparity of this year.

 

[chris98251]

I think we will see many more timing routes and he will have a hot read, this means he has to get the ball out on time to the right read. Schotty will drill that into them. This should help the O line as well and he will scramble only on breakdowns or designed plays. At least that's what I hope happens, my fear is Pete gets involved and funnels Schotty to much to what he wants.

 

[Popeyejones]

Drew Brees is Alex Smith level now? I don't see Alex Smith slaughtering the Panthers through the air or putting up 24 unanswered against the Vikes in Minny in one half in the playoffs. If he had to shoulder the load, he could. Payton just did a great job taking pressure off him, which shouldn't detract from his greatness. He shouldn't have to throw for 5000 yards to be considered top 5.

I see the decline in arm strength argument, but Brees still consistently puts the ball in great spots to allow for max YAC, few QBs have his accuracy.

Also, I'm very confinement fender was trolling haha.

Well, I mean, I'm not really in the habit of defending Alex Smith (seriously and sincerely), but 25% of his games last year were easily better than Brees' best game last year.

And we totally agree that Payton did a really good job of taking pressure off him last year.

Maybe we just disagree with *why* Payton did this? In Brees last year I saw the same decline in arm strength that you saw, but also saw a guy who was missing more on intermediate and deep throws that he used to hit. I see a guy who spent his career being able to hit all the throws who now needs an offense to be tailored around him a little bit more in order to really excel.

I think Brees is worth his new contract and is still a good player, I just don't think he's a top 5 QB anymore, and that the band has broken up on the old Rodgers/Brady/Brees trio that we've all talked about for so long. That doesn't make him chopped meat or anything, or mean that I think he's looking like Peyton in '15 or anything.

 

[adeltaY]

Drew Brees is Alex Smith level now? I don't see Alex Smith slaughtering the Panthers through the air or putting up 24 unanswered against the Vikes in Minny in one half in the playoffs. If he had to shoulder the load, he could. Payton just did a great job taking pressure off him, which shouldn't detract from his greatness. He shouldn't have to throw for 5000 yards to be considered top 5.

I see the decline in arm strength argument, but Brees still consistently puts the ball in great spots to allow for max YAC, few QBs have his accuracy.

Also, I'm very confinement fender was trolling haha.

Well, I mean, I'm not really in the habit of defending Alex Smith (seriously and sincerely), but 25% of his games last year were easily better than Brees' best game last year.

And we totally agree that Payton did a really good job of taking pressure off him last year.

Maybe we just disagree with *why* Payton did this? In Brees last year I saw the same decline in arm strength that you saw, but also saw a guy who was missing more on intermediate and deep throws that he used to hit. I see a guy who spent his career being able to hit all the throws who now needs an offense to be tailored around him a little bit more in order to really excel.

I think Brees is worth his new contract and is still a good player, I just don't think he's a top 5 QB anymore, and that the band has broken up on the old Rodgers/Brady/Brees trio that we've all talked about for so long. That doesn't make him chopped meat or anything, or mean that I think he's looking like Peyton in '15 or anything.

Good call pops. To be fair, I traded for Brees in fantasy this year and he was pretty disappointed. I chalked it up to Ingram and AK41 vulturing TDs, but you're correct that he wasn't dominating games like years past. Agree with the decline of arm strength at the end of 2016 as well. I think he's still top 5 because there aren't many QBs I'd trust to carry an offense, which I still believe Brees can. I'd only put Brady and Rodgers above him. Rivers and Ben around the same level, but I lean Brees above them. I want to see two more years of elite play from Wentz to put him up in the top 5.

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^^ Good point too on your end: I get a little less comfortable confidently saying he's not top 5 when I gotta think about listing out the next three who aren't him. :lol: :lol:

So I guess what it is for me is that Tier 1 used to be three QBs, and now Tier 1 is two QBs, if that makes sense (he's downt to Tier 2 but still in the mix in a top 5 ranking). That's probably much closer to the point that you've been arguing than the point I've been arguing, and if so, yeah, I think you're probably right. :2thumbs:

 

[adeltaY]

Don't forget Tier 0 for Jimmy Gsus! :mrgreen:

 

[MD5eahawks]

I really don't get the questioning of Russell Wilson. My god, what does he have to do!?!?

Having the ability to throw consistently to the middle of the field would be a great start. Moving up in the pocket and throwing the ball would be cool to.

Yeah he absolutely sucks throwing to the middle of the field... :roll:

OP..Love how you come up with these charts and this one certainly has good flash to it.
I'm just curious if we could get the number of passes on it?
I believe the middle will be a pretty low number but should be used much more.

Thank you Indy.

 

[hawkman]

I really don't get the questioning of Russell Wilson. My god, what does he have to do!?!?

Having the ability to throw consistently to the middle of the field would be a great start. Moving up in the pocket and throwing the ball would be cool to.

Yeah he absolutely sucks throwing to the middle of the field... :roll:

OP..Love how you come up with these charts and this one certainly has good flash to it.
I'm just curious if we could get the number of passes on it?
I believe the middle will be a pretty low number but should be used much more.

Yep, chart is totally meaningless without number of attempts on it.

 

[NINEster]

Yes and no. Wilson is an enigma, an oddity at the QB position. This is why he is always bound to get criticism and second guessing thrown his way. Wilson's biggest issue is his lack of consistency. There are points in a game where he will miss the easiest 'gimmie' throws, or not see guys that are running wide open. This happens even if he gets good protection. When he is in these modes he may as well be Tarvaris Jackson.

The other side of Wilson is the terminator. God smiles from the heavens above, and grants Wilson the power to smite his foes with robotic like proficiency. When he is on he looks like the greatest QB to ever play this game. I would take Wilson when he is in the zone over Brady, Montana, Elway, etc. Nobody can stop the man in this mode, he looks almost as if he is possessed. He will make seemingly impossible throws, and he will look like Barry Sanders juking defenders in the backfield, as he throws a perfect pass with defenders draped over him.

This can be a bit jarring. In most games he will look like some back-up QB barely clinging to a job until the late third, and fourth Quarter. This, rightfully so leaves many fans confused, and wondering what exactly Russell Wilson is as a player. This may be why we brought in Schottenheimer. Bevell looked like a pushover, and punching bag for the players. People did not respect him or his schemes. Whenever I saw him he gave me the impression of a meek man that was unable to reign in his players. His authority was also greatly diminished by the co-coordinator set up he had with Cable. He was referred to as a passing game coordinator, and Cable as a running game coordinator. Schottenheimer on the other hand is known for being a hard a---.

This all goes back to Russ. He doesn't play within the confines of the offense. He has always been a QB that made up his own rules as he went. We like to view him as a rank and file guy, but in reality Russ bends every basic rule of playing QB on a regular basis. He is the biggest rogue in the organization on the field. This leads to interesting results that are both good, both bad. He can accomplish this due to his unique talents at QB. Unfortunately, because of this loose style he is lacking in fundamentals as a passer. He does not have the same internal clock that a QB such as Hasselbeck had. It simply does not exist for Wilson because of the miracles he is able to pull off in the backfield.

This bit is important for QB's becoming a consistent force. Wilson needs to learn when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em. He will often forgo checkdown routes if they are available, because he knows he may be able to make something big happen. Unfortunately, Pete and Bevell encouraged this style of play. I like to call it hero ball. This style of play leads to awkward throwing positions, and less than ideal mechanics on a regular basis. This is why we see Russ consistently overthrow his receivers. Even if he gets a clear pocket, Russ tends to move around excessively. This is a recipe for bad throws. He doesn't need to be Brees, but he sure could learn a lot from the way he sets up his blockers, and manipulates the pocket. This will lead to more consistent play from Russ, and ultimately elevate his game to the next level.

Russ has developed some really bad habits, and I'm starting to think that maybe this is why a guy like Schottenheimer was brought in over some of the other big names on the market. Schotty is a no non-sense, old school style of coordinator. While I don't think much of his offenses and schemes, I do think he will bring a lot of value in taming our wild stallion of a QB. I think he was brought in more for this reason than his merits as a coordinator. He will demand much more out of Wilson than Bevell, and he will not sit back and be an "oh shucks" type of OC like Bevell was. He will demand accountability from his Quarterback.

So essentially what I said is, yes and no. He is both a top five QB, and not a top five QB.

Good post.

There's also the part that Wilson could often manipulate an over aggressive outside pass rush like a proper trap block exploits an aggressive DLine in the run game.

Merely keeping Wilson in the pocket typically had better results for defenses.

When defensive lines are coached to keep a QB in the pocket over pressure you definitely have an anomaly QB.

Even guys like Cam, RG3, Kap were more like a traditional pocket passer than Wilson in that regard.

Also, if one watches games carefully and without a biased eye, Wilson isn't/wasn't a lot better than Kap or Cam in going through progressions from the pocket.

 

[Northwest Seahawk]

Wilson isn't the best QB in the league but he's better than most . Wilson isn't the problem he lead the league in TD's at the QB position . He had no real help other than Doug and Jimmy and neither of them are the best in the league at there positions either. Now take a look at the teams that did well in the playoffs at there skill positions on offense and it's crystal clear Seattle just didn't matchup at all . It's very clear what has to happen Seattle needs to find Wilson better more consistent weapons if they hope to compete in the NFC West. Even with all that they were right there to the end if not for the absurd down right criminal amount of penalty's we make the playoffs. All that said it was time to clean house.