Dan Campbell has no regrets

[jeremiah]

Yep, could've been up 3 scores more than half way thru the 3rd. Even if the 9ers take the rest of the 3rd and score a TD, the Lions would still be up by 10 going into the 4th and also have the ball. Having a 2 score lead and the ball starting the 4th would have been huge. Just a stupid, stupid call not to kick the FG.

He should have apologized to the players and the fans. If not, fire his ass. It was unforgivable, not kicking that FG at the end of the first half. They likely win the game. It is like playing Dice, and you get 600, or 1,000 on one roll, you roll one more time to see if you get a 5 or 1, then take the points. Anybody play dice? Do you know who wins? The guy that takes a decent score, puts it on the paper. That is how you play in a Championship situation.

 

[Biscanebay12]

He should have apologized to the players and the fans. If not, fire his ass. It was unforgivable, not kicking that FG at the end of the first half. They likely win the game. It is like playing Dice, and you get 600, or 1,000 on one roll, you roll one more time to see if you get a 5 or 1, then take the points. Anybody play dice? Do you know who wins? The guy that takes a decent score, puts it on the paper. That is how you play in a Championship situation.

FGs aren't guaranteed. Did the coach drop 3 easy 3rd down conversion catches? How about the fumble just outside the 9er redzone, did the coach do that too?

Hindsight is always 20/20

 

[QWERTY]

FGs aren't guaranteed. Did the coach drop 3 easy 3rd down conversion catches? How about the fumble just outside the 9er redzone, did the coach do that too?

Hindsight is always 20/20

So you are saying that there was a big chance that the Lions kicker will miss 2 FG.....

Right...

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Dan Campbell did exactly what the Packers did: He handed that game to the Niners. Chiefs won't be doing that.

 

[Biscanebay12]

So you are saying that there was a big chance that the Lions kicker will miss 2 FG.....

Right...

SF missed one, it happens. Would they miss two? Not likely but going for it was not the only reason they lost. Lions played like shit in 2nd half and SF scored every time they got the ball. 4 qtrs of football not just 2.

And in comparison how many 4th qtr comebacks did RW have while he was a Hawk? Guess those were all luck no skill too, right?

I know it sucks to see a rival go to the big dance but the bitterness about it has football IQs around here dropping faster than "Cornpops" popularity.

 

[xray]

SF missed one, it happens. Would they miss two? Not likely but going for it was not the only reason they lost. Lions played like shit in 2nd half and SF scored every time they got the ball. 4 qtrs of football not just 2.

And in comparison how many 4th qtr comebacks did RW have while he was a Hawk? Guess those were all luck no skill too, right?

I know it sucks to see a rival go to the big dance but the bitterness about it has football IQs around here dropping faster than "Cornpops" popularity.

^
Hating on division rivals that succeed , is childish envy . If the Hawks want to go to another superbowl , win 13 or 14 games , take the division and advance through the playoffs . Kudos to SF...they earned it . imo

 

[Wheetie]

"The easy thing to do is to throw it," Campbell said during Monday's news conference. "Probably should've been the right thing, but for me, I wanted to run it. I thought we would just pop it. We had just -- 2-minute all the way down the field, throwing the football and they were in a four-down front and I believed we'd walk right in, and we just missed a block. So then, yeah, I've got to use a timeout. So, hindsight, throw it four times. But I believed in that moment it was going to be a walk-in run. And it didn't work out. So, I gambled and lost."

Campbell on the stopped run at the goal line making him use a time out and then having to recover the onside kick.

Dan, you gambled lots that game and were unsuccesful every single time. You don't have big balls, you're frickin' reckless and also arrogant in my opinion. I wanted you and the Lions to win so bad and now I just think you're a clown.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

He should have PLENTY of regrets. That was pathetic to pass up 6 points, esp. on the road. He pissed down his leg and handed Santa Clara that game. Just like GB did.

 

[49fansinceBrodie]

So many analytics are based on increasing win probability (according to simulations since this is not testable). Win probability values are volatile. It seems to be much more affected by outcomes than by strategies; i.e. interceptions, missed tackles, explosive plays, etc. So if win probability can bounce up and down 40-50% in a period of a few minutes of a football game, why would a 5% improvement in win probability be all that significant. Note: I am an imbecile about many things, including statistics.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Your team got handed the game, again. It's ok to admit it. Sometimes you just get lucky.

 

[Maelstrom787]

This is hardly even a matter of analytics or win probability, these decisions are wholly defensible lol

 

[Fresno Hawk]

He can say he dosent regret it all he wants, deep down inside he's kicking himself.

 

[knownone]

This is hardly even a matter of analytics or win probability, these decisions are wholly defensible lol

Whoever made that graphic is stretching the definition of the chance of success. The sample size is too small to use the Lion's historical performance. If you use league-wide data, it's closer to a 57% success rate on 4th and two vs. a 79% success rate on a 45-yard FG.

I didn't mind Campbell's decision. But it seems like a valid point of concern, given how the Lions try to maximize win probability more than any other team in the league. And, in this case, the risk associated with that style of play caught up to them.

 

[Vesuve]

He should have PLENTY of regrets. That was pathetic to pass up 6 points, esp. on the road. He pissed down his leg and handed Santa Clara that game. Just like GB did.

Totally agree.

If he has regrets he won't say it publicly.

Very foolish decisions in such a big game.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Never chase points on the road, esp. in a championship game. You always play add on.

 

[Maelstrom787]

 

[SoulfishHawk]

I couldn't care less what they are saying. It was stupid to not take those 2 field goals. And it very likely cost them a trip to the Super Bowl.
I appreciate them backing Campbell. Just because that's how you got there, that doesn't mean you can't ADJUST and do the smart thing. Take the effin points.
There's a huge difference between coaching aggressively and coaching flat out careless.

 

[49ersNFCWsBest]

If Dan Campbell's team converts the 4th and short into a 1st down and goes on to win the game then he is a genius.

I was hoping he would try for the FG . The 49ers Defense wasn't impressive at all during the 2nd half regardless of the stats. The Lions dropped key 3rd down passes and fumbled the ball away. Jared Goff just threw a bad off the wrong foot pass. Had he set himself that ball might be complete.

Dan Campbell won all year going for it on 4th down and everyone loved him for it. His players let him down and not the other way around. ( IMO)

 

[hoxrox]

They stayed true to who they are. But the thing about football analytics is that it's inherently flawed since it does not account for every single variable for every situation.

In that situation, with how much time was left in the game, it wasn't a good decision. They could have gone up 3 scores and milked the clock with their dynamic run game, thereby increasing their winning probability. They didn't need the extra 4 points right there... 3 would have sufficed. Turnover on downs, plus giving 9ers all the momentum (which analytics does not account for) greatly increased their losing probability.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I couldn't care less what they are saying. It was stupid to not take those 2 field goals. And it very likely cost them a trip to the Super Bowl.
I appreciate them backing Campbell. Just because that's how you got there, that doesn't mean you can't ADJUST and do the smart thing. Take the effin points.
There's a huge difference between coaching aggressively and coaching flat out careless.

But why was "taking the points" the objectively correct decision? Almost every tool we have to evaluate the probability of outcomes in each situation conclusively favors going for it.

Hell, on the long field goal, given their kickers career to date, the field goal was point blank LESS likely than converting the fourth. It's not taking the points if you're unlikely to nail the kick to begin with.