Denver defense - Overhyped

[Polaris]

The Broncos have the best run D in the league this year, .....

No they don't. The Cardinals had the best run defense and I think your Niners were up there in the top five.

If you go by DVOA, then it's even less true. Denver's Run defense is adequate and that's about it.

Edit PS: Also don't forget that Denver got up big on some teams forcing teams to abandon the run. This artificially inflates the Denver run defense using conventional stats (but not DVOA which is one big reason I trust DVOA over conventional stats).

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats? ... 447263-n=1

There's their standing in the NFL as far as rushing defense goes. You are absolutely right that stats get inflated by the fact many teams are playing from behind and thus abandoning the run.

You need to understand how the interwebs work better. That's the stats for postseason only. Hooray for small sample size.

Not just small sample sizes but skewed sample sizes as well. Look at the regular season stats and the DVOA for the entire season and we'll talk.

IMHO you are now cherry picking data.

 

[Nickel]

The Broncos have the best run D in the league this year, and they've got one of the best QBs to ever play the game.

The first part of this sentence is not true in any way.

The Broncos run D was not the best in terms of yards. It was tied for 7th with... the Seahawks.

The Broncos run D gave up 15 TDs this year. That was 9th WORST in the league. The Seahawks run D - in comparison - gave up 4 rushing TDs, tied for best in the league.

You did get the 2nd part of the sentence right, at least.

If you go by YPG, they're #1 in the league. If you go by YPC, they're #3 in the league. If you go by carries, they defended the least amount of attempts since teams are playing from behind. It's just like I said earlier, which leads to "shootouts."

 

[volsunghawk]

The Broncos have the best run D in the league this year, and they've got one of the best QBs to ever play the game.

The first part of this sentence is not true in any way.

The Broncos run D was not the best in terms of yards. It was tied for 7th with... the Seahawks.

The Broncos run D gave up 15 TDs this year. That was 9th WORST in the league. The Seahawks run D - in comparison - gave up 4 rushing TDs, tied for best in the league.

You did get the 2nd part of the sentence right, at least.

If you go by YPG, they're #1 in the league. If you go by YPC, they're #3 in the league. If you go by carries, they defended the least amount of attempts since teams are playing from behind. It's just like I said earlier, which leads to "shootouts."

Do I wait for you to catch up, or do I give you the actual link to this entire season? Tough call.

I think I'll let you twist in your ignorance a bit more.

 

[Polaris]

The Broncos have the best run D in the league this year, and they've got one of the best QBs to ever play the game.

The first part of this sentence is not true in any way.

The Broncos run D was not the best in terms of yards. It was tied for 7th with... the Seahawks.

The Broncos run D gave up 15 TDs this year. That was 9th WORST in the league. The Seahawks run D - in comparison - gave up 4 rushing TDs, tied for best in the league.

You did get the 2nd part of the sentence right, at least.

If you go by YPG, they're #1 in the league. If you go by YPC, they're #3 in the league. If you go by carries, they defended the least amount of attempts since teams are playing from behind. It's just like I said earlier, which leads to "shootouts."

This is wrong. You are looking at the post-season numbers only that not only have a small sample size but a skewed one. By raw NFL stats, Seattle and Denver both have the #7 defense vs the Rush.

If you go by advanced metrics (which are far superior), Seattle's Rush defense is far better than Denver's (because Seattle has faced far better rushing teams.....like San Fran for one). Say what you want, but this is sounding more and more like trying to find reasons for Denver to win by a bitter Niner fan. You can deny it, but that's what I'm seeing.

 

[Largent80]

I'll take our tuneup for the playoffs and superbowl over any other team. We had to play the whos who of defenses all Decenber and January., losing only once. Denvers defense is going to be a welcome mat.

 

[Nickel]

Not just small sample sizes but skewed sample sizes as well. Look at the regular season stats and the DVOA for the entire season and we'll talk.

IMHO you are now cherry picking data.

Okay, so you'd prefer to look at performance against non-playoff teams in non-recent games? Hmm alrighty.

When you consider the regular season only, the Broncos run D is tied with the Hawks (totally awesome D, everyone agrees) in defending YPG.

Both of these teams are also tied at #7 for defending YPC as well.

Total rushing attempts against the Broncos? 420. Total against the Seahawks? 422.

Looks pretty similar if you ask me.

 

[marko358]

I'll take our tuneup for the playoffs and superbowl over any other team. We had to play the whos who of defenses all Decenber and January., losing only once. Denvers defense is going to be a welcome mat.

^This

Plus they have some key injuries on defense and lack the speed we've seen on opposing defenses these last two months.

 

[DeathbyTalons]

Not just small sample sizes but skewed sample sizes as well. Look at the regular season stats and the DVOA for the entire season and we'll talk.

IMHO you are now cherry picking data.

Okay, so you'd prefer to look at performance against non-playoff teams in non-recent games? Hmm alrighty.

When you consider the regular season only, the Broncos run D is tied with the Hawks (totally awesome D, everyone agrees) in defending YPG.

Both of these teams are also tied at #7 for defending YPC as well.

Total rushing attempts against the Broncos? 420. Total against the Seahawks? 422.

Looks pretty similar if you ask me.

Dude are you seriously gonna compare the Broncos defense to Seattle's?? STFU. Lol.

 

[marko358]

Not just small sample sizes but skewed sample sizes as well. Look at the regular season stats and the DVOA for the entire season and we'll talk.

IMHO you are now cherry picking data.

Okay, so you'd prefer to look at performance against non-playoff teams in non-recent games? Hmm alrighty.

When you consider the regular season only, the Broncos run D is tied with the Hawks (totally awesome D, everyone agrees) in defending YPG.

Both of these teams are also tied at #7 for defending YPC as well.

Total rushing attempts against the Broncos? 420. Total against the Seahawks? 422.

Looks pretty similar if you ask me.

Dude are you seriously gonna compare the Broncos defense to Seattle's?? STFU. Lol.

They're very similar defenses. Sure they gave up 399 points this year to our 231, but that's misleading. lol

 

[Nickel]

Do I wait for you to catch up, or do I give you the actual link to this entire season? Tough call.

I think I'll let you twist in your ignorance a bit more.

There's no need to be rude because you lack an argument.

Going by scoring is ignorant because it doesn't take "garbage time" into account. Most football fans understand "garbage time" in that most teams who score 37 PPG on average don't feel the need to break their necks in preventing some 4th quarter "garbage time" scoring.

For example, the lowly Raiders scored 14 points in the 4th quarter against Denver in week 17 AFTER Denver had scored 31 points. "Garbage time."

 

[Polaris]

Not just small sample sizes but skewed sample sizes as well. Look at the regular season stats and the DVOA for the entire season and we'll talk.

IMHO you are now cherry picking data.

Okay, so you'd prefer to look at performance against non-playoff teams in non-recent games? Hmm alrighty.

When you consider the regular season only, the Broncos run D is tied with the Hawks (totally awesome D, everyone agrees) in defending YPG.

Both of these teams are also tied at #7 for defending YPC as well.

Total rushing attempts against the Broncos? 420. Total against the Seahawks? 422.

Looks pretty similar if you ask me.

They only look similiar. In the first place Denver jumped out to big leads over a number of teams. That's not the way (as you well know) Seattle plays. As a result those teams were forced to stop running the ball in order to 'catch up' and that artificially inflates your raw Run Defense number.

Not only that, but who has Denver faced? AFC West+NFC East+AFC South+Baltimore (which quickly fell behind the first game of the season)+Patriots

Who in that entire group has a good power running game? Maybe Philly but Denver got Philly before philly got their run game really on track (and IIRC that was a trackmeet game), and KC twice (and both those games were shootouts and KC was a very limited team).

Now look at Seattle. Seattle had to face San Fran twice, the Rams twice. Even the Cardinals at least try to run it. Then Seattle had to face the NFC South, and the Panthers can definately pound the rock. Then Seattle had to face Minnesota and the Giants. Minnesota is a lousy team, but it's got a great run game.

Fortunately these considerations can be accounted for in advanced stats like Rushing Defense DVOA and Seattle is much better in Rushing Defense than Denver. It's not as strong as Seattle's passing defense, true, but if Denver wants to run the ball all the time, Denver will lose because that takes away plays from Denver's most dangerous and dynmatic offensive weapon: Peyton Manning.

By contrast, Seattle is perfectly happy to ramrod the ball down your throat with the run if you let them.

 

[Nickel]

They're very similar defenses. Sure they gave up 399 points this year to our 231, but that's misleading. lol

See above on "Garbage Time." I'm shocked more Seattle fans aren't aware of this, I guess you guys have a lot of new fans.

 

[marko358]

They're very similar defenses. Sure they gave up 399 points this year to our 231, but that's misleading. lol

See above on "Garbage Time." I'm shocked more Seattle fans aren't aware of this, I guess you guys have a lot of new fans.

I have a feeling you'd be crapping all over Denver's defense if it were the Niners representing instead of Seattle.

 

[hawker84]

Whoa :177692:

Denver's defense is:

1. Soft in the gap
2. Slow out on the edge
3. Mediocre in the secondary, at best.

But again, can Seattle score every time Denver scores? They're going to score, the question is can Seattle keep up? I could be TOTALLY wrong here, but I could see Wilson being forced into a shootout with Manning which could be tough, considering receivers, experience, etc.

Edit: Typo

Apparently you didn't see him bring this team back against ATL last year, or go toe to toe with Brady last year, or in CHI. RW is more than capable of putting this team on his back, especially against a soft defense that rated #27 against the pass this season.

 

[Polaris]

They're very similar defenses. Sure they gave up 399 points this year to our 231, but that's misleading. lol

See above on "Garbage Time." I'm shocked more Seattle fans aren't aware of this, I guess you guys have a lot of new fans.

Garbage time is almost impossible to quantify though. I also point out that "garbage time" destroys your run game argument because teams trying to catch up in garbage time almost never run it (at least not seriously).

 

[hawker84]

The Broncos have the best run D in the league this year, and they've got one of the best QBs to ever play the game.

The first part of this sentence is not true in any way.

The Broncos run D was not the best in terms of yards. It was tied for 7th with... the Seahawks.

The Broncos run D gave up 15 TDs this year. That was 9th WORST in the league. The Seahawks run D - in comparison - gave up 4 rushing TDs, tied for best in the league.

You did get the 2nd part of the sentence right, at least.

If you go by YPG, they're #1 in the league. If you go by YPC, they're #3 in the league. If you go by carries, they defended the least amount of attempts since teams are playing from behind. It's just like I said earlier, which leads to "shootouts."

would you be even remotely scared of Denvers defense if it was SF facing them next Sunday?

 

[volsunghawk]

Do I wait for you to catch up, or do I give you the actual link to this entire season? Tough call.

I think I'll let you twist in your ignorance a bit more.

There's no need to be rude because you lack an argument.

Going by scoring is ignorant because it doesn't take "garbage time" into account. Most football fans understand "garbage time" in that most teams who score 37 PPG on average don't feel the need to break their necks in preventing some 4th quarter "garbage time" scoring.

For example, the lowly Raiders scored 14 points in the 4th quarter against Denver in week 17 AFTER Denver had scored 31 points. "Garbage time."

There was reason to be rude because you clearly weren't understanding that 2 games does not a season make. Or perhaps you absolutely understood that, but to acknowledge it would invalidate your assertions about Denver's run D.

You know what almost NEVER shows up in 4th quarter garbage time? Rushing yards and TDs. So the 15 rushing TDs given up by Denver's defense - again, 9th worst in the league this year - is pretty damn significant.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

Not just small sample sizes but skewed sample sizes as well. Look at the regular season stats and the DVOA for the entire season and we'll talk.

IMHO you are now cherry picking data.

Okay, so you'd prefer to look at performance against non-playoff teams in non-recent games? Hmm alrighty.

When you consider the regular season only, the Broncos run D is tied with the Hawks (totally awesome D, everyone agrees) in defending YPG.

Both of these teams are also tied at #7 for defending YPC as well.

Total rushing attempts against the Broncos? 420. Total against the Seahawks? 422.

Looks pretty similar if you ask me.

This is why you don't look at meaningless stats like YPG. Per DVOA, the Denver rushing defense is 9th and Seattle's run D is 8th. So both have good run defenses. However, Denvers pass defense is 21st while Seattle's is not only #1, but the best in history.

Wilson is going to have a pretty good day passing all over the weakest pass defense they've faced since Minnesota and Atlanta, teams in which Wilson put up good numbers, even when Lynch was held to 54 yds rushing. Both those games were blowouts.

Denver, otoh, hasn't faced a decent pass defense all season long. All this talk about can Seattle score every time Denver scores is stupid. The question is, can Denver score enough at all. Seattle will be scoring against that porous secondary. Denver will be struggling against that Seattle defense.

 

[ivotuk]

They're very similar defenses. Sure they gave up 399 points this year to our 231, but that's misleading. lol

See above on "Garbage Time." I'm shocked more Seattle fans aren't aware of this, I guess you guys have a lot of new fans.

Garbage time is almost impossible to quantify though. I also point out that "garbage time" destroys your run game argument because teams trying to catch up in garbage time almost never run it (at least not seriously).

Ding ding ding ding!

 

[Nickel]

They're very similar defenses. Sure they gave up 399 points this year to our 231, but that's misleading. lol

See above on "Garbage Time." I'm shocked more Seattle fans aren't aware of this, I guess you guys have a lot of new fans.

I have a feeling you'd be crapping all over Denver's defense if it were the Niners representing instead of Seattle.

I already answered the question "How would you feel if the Niners were playing Denver?" on this very page.

Actually READING the thread can be conducive to a good discussion.