Polaris":30o0dyfk said:
Breaker,
Did you miss the 109 yards that Lynch just got againt the Niner defense this last week? Did you miss the 140 yards against New Orleans the week before?
You also should evaluate againt the Run Defense DVOA when they were faced. Houston had a much better defense (and team in general) at the start of the season (when Seattle faced them) then at the end (as one example). Likewise Indy was a much stouter team in September vs December.
You can accuse Seahawk fans of cherry picking all you like, but indepenant statistical analysis backs our points up. See Football Outsiders for just one example (and football outsiders is neutral).
Polaris,
I don't see independent statistical anaylsis in Seahawk fans posts, I see straight homerism. How bout I drop some actual statistics on you from your PRECIOUS football outsiders.
Lets look at the team defense DVOA for all of those games and I will use a good metric to prevent an argument. First column with be Team DVOA Defense.
Game 1: Carolina 43 (#6)
Game 2: Hou 98 yds (#18)
Game 3: Indy 102 (#17)
Game 4: ARI 91 ( #1)
Game 5: STL 23 (#12)
Game 6: ATL 145 ( #29)
Game 7: San Fran 72 (#13)
Game 8: Giants 47 ( #3)
Average Team Defense DVOA against the run is #12 for these games. The numbers are even more in my favor after doing this.
Lynch had 621 total yards
276 vs DVOA top 16 teams (43% of total representing 5 games)
345 vs DVOA bottom 16 (57% of total representing 3 games)
So by your own metrics Lynch had 57% of his road rushing stats against sub-par DVOA Team Defenses, which is actually a greater percentage than the 54% of my original post. Now speaking to the original post that I was responding too, I used the exact same metrics that he used, which were actually team defense vs run and pass metrics, which I didn’t feel like pointing out to the dumbass, but you seem to be a smarter individual so I will go by your statistical measures.
Now speaking to your other point about having to do it when you play them. I would agree, if you can find week by week DVOA stats and show me I am wrong, I will admit to it.
But here is the stat that is absolutely priceless, it is going to make you cringe when you realize hear this. On FOB they have a ranking in the team defense category called SCHED, which according to FOB
“SCHEDULE represents the average offensive DVOA of all opponents, with teams ranked from hardest schedule to easiest schedule” Guess where Seattle falls on that list … 31st. That’s right the vaunted Seattle defense faced teams with offenses over the course of 16 games that gave their defense the 2nd easiest DVOA schedule in the league. Denver wasn’t much better at #24, but still better. I have been of the opinion that Seattle D could be overrated for a long time. You faced 8 backup QBS, faced only one of the top 10 QB’s Statistically. Other gems I investigated about you vaunted defense.
44 Team Sacks
5 (11%) against top 11 pass protection DVOA offensive lines
17 (39%) against middle 11 pass protection DVOA offensive lines
22 (50%) against bottom 10 pass protection DVOA offensive lines
Denver stats on this:
41 Sacks (despite losing Von Miller for more than half the year)
15 (37%) against top 11 pass protection DVOA offensive lines
14 (34% )against middle 11 pass protection DVOA offensive lines
12 (29%) against bottom 10 pass protection DVOA offensive lines
Yea, that’s right, 50% of your sacks for the year came against teams ranked 22 or below in offensive pass protection DVOA, you fed of bottom feeders and didn't even average 2 sacks a game against top 11 teams. You want to know where Denver is ranked, #1 pass protection DVOA offensive line. I find it laughable that Seattle fans just assume that they will get pressure on Manning like it is a forgone conclusion, that Denver has no chance to stop you. Denver led the league in plays per game, we run a no huddle faster than the vaunted Eagles offense. Seattle fans love to talk about their rotation, but tell me this? How are you going to rotate if you can’t get off the field? That leaves tired, huge Dline men going up against the best DVOA pass protecting line and Manning sitting back there all day. No secondary on earth can hold up consistently under those conditions for more than 4-5 seconds.
I am not usually the type to talk trash, except to Pats fans cause I hate them. I actually like the Seahawks and I LOVE Russell Wilson, and hate Kaepernick. If my BRONCOS … yea not a 49ers fan at all, have to lose to a team in the NFC, I would rather it be the Seahawks than anyone else, you do have the coolest uniforms in the league btw. However, I cannot abide by the sheer arrogance of a majority of Seahawk fans that I see on this board. I realize that your franchise hasn’t “been there” very often so you don’t really know how to be optimistic without coming across as arrogant jackasses, especially when actually stats call into question your assertion that you have the best defense in the league, as shown earlier.
All that said, I expect a close game and would not be surprised if the Seahawks win, I don’t think they will, however I do expect it close. I believe the game will come down to 4 things.
1. Seattle Defense getting pressure on Manning: As proven in this post, it WILL be harder than you think. If you don’t get pressure it wont matter how good your secondary is and our no huddle is brutal.
2. Containing Wilson – I think we can do an adequate job of bottling up Lynch, as long as we don’t let Wilson extend the play to much by scrambling. Outside of Harvin I am not worried about any of your receivers.
3. Avoid turnovers – our biggest problem all year has been the insane turnovers, if the Seahawks don’t get at least one, I don’t believe that have any chance
4. Harvin - Don't let Harvin beat us ... I am worried that Harvin is too good for any of our corners. However, if for some reason Wilson force feeds the ball to him, it could get problematic for the Hawks.
