Detroit signed Jason Jones

[pinksheets]

kearly, do you think there's a reason the Hawks apparently didn't pursue him or at least pursue him hard? Another target? Confidence in some guys on the roster, Jaye Howard maybe? Or just a miscalculation on the market they expected him to meet?

 

[volsunghawk]

Still plenty of DTs and DEs in FA and in the draft. Losing out on Jones isn't a death knell for our D.

No disrespect, but people that say this haven't studied the 2013 group. Pass rush 3-techs are one of the rarest and most difficult to draft positions in football. And IMO, this year is below average at DT compared to previous years, particularly in the athleticism department. We would have been a little lucky to get a difference making pass rush 3-tech at #25. At #56, you are talking about guys that are longshots to be difference makers.

If we are very lucky, we might still get Kawann Short, and though I think he will help us I don't think he's quite what we need either. Then you have Sly Williams, who we'd also be lucky to get, and he's basically a rich man's Allen Branch. Then you have Brandon Williams who at 341 pounds with little speed and short arms with a low running motor from division II would be the most unlikely pass rush 3-tech ever- although I do like him- but he's still a long shot. Then you get to options like Bennie Logan who are pretty unremarkable and look like league average NFL DTs.

There are some creative options, like Malliciah Goodman or Lavar Edwards, but both played DE and would have to convert to DT- so they'd be unlikely to help much in 2013.

My favorite by a mile is John Simon, but most see him as a 3-4 OLB. I think he could make it work and even contribute immediately as a Jason Jones type player, but I am very much in the minority on this. My ray of optimism comes from how I was very much in the minority on Russell Wilson last year but John Schneider had my back. I hope he has my back on John Simon too. Otherwise, I think we are probably screwed in terms of 2013 interior pass rush.

I never meant to imply that there were outstanding, "can't miss" options scattered all over the place. I meant that we could likely find a reasonable replacement for what Jones provided. I absolutely don't buy that Jones was so valuable that losing out on him means we're going to see a massive downgrade in our D. We may end up paying more than Jones got from Detroit, or we may end up putting a stopgap in there and banking on our defense to be "good enough" while the offense blows up.

Or we may end up finding a gem in the draft that was overlooked by the usual punditry. Or we find just a guy and need to look at that spot again in 2014. However, you are right that I haven't researched the 2013 class in any great depth. I was hopeful that we would find a DT in the mold you mentioned with pick 25, but outside of guys expected to go in the top 16, I didn't see anyone that piqued my interest, really.

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

Still plenty of DTs and DEs in FA and in the draft. Losing out on Jones isn't a death knell for our D.

No disrespect, but people that say this haven't studied the 2013 group. Pass rush 3-techs are one of the rarest and most difficult to draft positions in football. And IMO, this year is below average at DT compared to previous years, particularly in the athleticism department. We would have been a little lucky to get a difference making pass rush 3-tech at #25. At #56, you are talking about guys that are longshots to be difference makers.

If we are very lucky, we might still get Kawann Short, and though I think he will help us I don't think he's quite what we need either. Then you have Sly Williams, who we'd also be lucky to get, and he's basically a rich man's Allen Branch. Then you have Brandon Williams who at 341 pounds with little speed and short arms with a low running motor from division II would be the most unlikely pass rush 3-tech ever- although I do like him- but he's still a long shot. Then you get to options like Bennie Logan who are pretty unremarkable and look like league average NFL DTs.

There are some creative options, like Malliciah Goodman or Lavar Edwards, but both played DE and would have to convert to DT- so they'd be unlikely to help much in 2013.

My favorite by a mile is John Simon, but most see him as a 3-4 OLB. I think he could make it work and even contribute immediately as a Jason Jones type player, but I am very much in the minority on this. My ray of optimism comes from how I was very much in the minority on Russell Wilson last year but John Schneider had my back. I hope he has my back on John Simon too. Otherwise, I think we are probably screwed in terms of 2013 interior pass rush.

I never meant to imply that there were outstanding, "can't miss" options scattered all over the place. I meant that we could likely find a reasonable replacement for what Jones provided.

He's not saying there are can't miss options either. There are, but they will be gone by #14-18 at the very latest.

What he is saying, is precisely this: There aren't good options out there at all. Either in FA or via the draft. Saying we could likely find xxx is extremely hopeful. Unless by could likely you mean less than 5% chance. Because that's about where I see these tier 2/3 guys.

Now you are right, in that there is a likelihood that of the 15 or so R3+ guys in the draft, maybe one will actually be worth resigning after their rookie deal. But that's a very low percentage play.

It's not about absolutes. We aren't in a position to get "can't miss" guys. But the percentages are really low. And in general, these guys that are late day 2/3 picks really look fraught with risk. More than usual.

We can say, "Well we did it with Wilson". But we needed a QB for 4+ years before a guy like Wilson came around to even take. The truth is, it's more likely than it is unlikely by a wide margin that we will actually be worse in 2013 as far as interior pass rush goes. In 2014, we really *should* be echoing the same lament of 2012 and 2013. We will almost assuredly need pass rush this time next year and it should be an even bigger need.

If there is a guy that can improve it, I would like to think we can identify him. Certainly our track record is good at that. But we can't account for some other team thinking the same thing, or by blind stupid luck, taking that guy before we have a chance to land him.

I'm hopeful that we already have a guy earmarked as a good risk pick, and that assessment gave us a sense of peace that encouraged us to sacrifice that first round pick. I don't see it today. Doesn't mean they don't. I'm just not hopeful that there is a 2013 solution to our passing on Fletcher Cox.

kearly, do you think there's a reason the Hawks apparently didn't pursue him or at least pursue him hard? Another target? Confidence in some guys on the roster, Jaye Howard maybe? Or just a miscalculation on the market they expected him to meet?

I won't speak for him, but I expect the Jones play was a predetermined result. He came here to show he could still rush the passer so that he could get a contract that he wasn't seen worthy of in 2012. He did that. I think his play, even in a limited manner, earned his paycheck and that contract was beyond what we were willing to bestow on a player with his level of injury risk.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

Well here's the deal - and this could probably be in a thread of it's own as it's not directly related to Jones and is a meta call - our defense allowed the least points in the league. They bent quite a lot, frustratingly so, but in the red zone, they stiffened up. Unfortunately, that means if the game comes down to a field goal, we're screwed cuz we can't keep opposing offenses out of the red zone, just out of the end zone.

Which reminds me greatly of 2005. Our bend, don't break defense allowed our high octane offense to score TD's while it only gave up FG's. When the offense is clicking and the defense holds in the red zone with regularity, you're going to have a great shot at the SB.

58 vs AZ. 43 vs SF. 50 vs Buffalo. Our offense was already becoming high octane last year. Now we've got Percy Harvin. A great pass rush would be really nice, but we can hold them in the red zone and with our offense, we're going to be okay.

 

[3Girls'HawkDad]

Didn't we bring in Jones last year to help with pass rush?

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

Well here's the deal - and this could probably be in a thread of it's own as it's not directly related to Jones and is a meta call - our defense allowed the least points in the league. They bent quite a lot, frustratingly so, but in the red zone, they stiffened up. Unfortunately, that means if the game comes down to a field goal, we're screwed cuz we can't keep opposing offenses out of the red zone, just out of the end zone.

Which reminds me greatly of 2005. Our bend, don't break defense allowed our high octane offense to score TD's while it only gave up FG's. When the offense is clicking and the defense holds in the red zone with regularity, you're going to have a great shot at the SB.

This is patently false. Statistically speaking.

#1 points allowed
#1 points per play
#4 red zone scoring allowed
#4 yards allowed/gm
#6 yards allowed/play
#10 rush yds/gm
#6 pass yds/gm
#4 pass yds/att
#8 opp completion percentage
#13 3rd down conversion rates allowed

This was an incredible statistical performance by the defense. In almost all phases of the game. Typically, if you are good at one thing, you suffer at another as teams try to work your weakness.

Seattle was stifling in almost all aspects. And this was consistent virtually all season long.

This is not a bend/not break defense. This is an attacking, stifling defense. It's achilles heel really is not even so much of one (3rd down percentage allowed). It's just relatively subpar because of how good they are in almost all phases of the game.

This defense is outstanding. And with a good interior push, it can come together in an epic way.

 

[hawkmanj]

Guess the loss of Jones doesn't look that bad now...