Elite

[TwistedHusky]

Exactly, all this jostling for whether Wilson is Elite is funny. Because Elite QBs don't have a chance to make the SB unless their name is Brady (and Brady because he refuses to take as much pay so he can pay producers on the rest of the team. Then he just makes it up with endorsements).

Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best QB in the NFL right now. He has little chance at a SB

Brees is also elite by any measure. He also is likely not a shot at the SB.


The only way an elite QB can make the SB is when his contract over time becomes less expensive and the defense is built back up over time. But then those defensive players become expensive and they leave. So the window becomes tremendously short. Even with the all-everything QB there for a decade - he gets 2 maybe 3 real shots at a SB.

Wilson is nowhere near the equal of a Rodgers or Brees, he doesn't have to be. But with a mediocre defense he cannot do what Rodgers and Brees do, which is a carry a team to being a threat in the playoffs and put up a great regular season record.

It is very clear the blueprint to a SB for any team now (ironically) seems to be Very Good or Rookie QB + Significantly Above Average Defense. Elite QB only matters for the Pats.

 

[AROS]

Excellent post. I dig the forward-thinking analysis. Player bias is a very real phenomenon. We all engage in it. From coaches and players to fans. If Russell was 6 foot 3, you would likely have three times the people collectively calling him elite than there are at the moment.

This is absolute nonsense. Brees is similar in stature to Wilson and he's been regarded as elite for over a decade. People don't care about Wilson's height, they care about the painful-obvious limitations his height causes and his poor fundamentals.

Brees is the outlier. Plain and simple. I am convinced his height still plays in the collective unconscious of most fans, analysts, NFL-associated people. You can call it nonsense all you want. Doesn't change my opinion on the matter one Planck length.

 

[mrt144]

Good point about Brees... He's obviously better than Wilson and still the Saints haven't made it past the divisional round for ages. This is a roster construction problem. Even the Pack hasn't made it past the NFCCG for what seven years.

I think I've come around to looking at it like this - Rodgers and Brees will provide a seasonal performance floor on their team and that's not meaningless (although more meaningless for Brees I suppose). Even RW did that as 2017 showed. Playoffs are a whole nother kettle of fish where the overall composition of the team starts to matter a lot more and distributing performance risk among the whole team provides some leeway based on you matching up against other playoff teams.

Obviously this is just one aspect of generating success - as the Falcons showed and continue to show, you can absolutely have the right horses for the game and do a damn good job for most of it only to let tactical blunders hose you down the stretch. Success is multivariable calculus and it's really hard to pinpoint a specific 'aha' factors that helps or hinders with so many factors in play. But I think that this small dynamic is a thing in play, I just can't really tell you how much it matters overall.

 

[toffee]

Let's just say there are owners/GMs/HCs from close to 30 teams in the league that would secretly rather have Russell Wilson as their QB instead of whomever that they have. Does that make Wilson Elite? I dunno.

Wilson lives outside of established and proven prototype of NFL QB, but he is highly successful, therefore, there are army of "traditional QB prototype" worshippers that would like to see Russell fail.

Let's hope those doubters keep motivating Russell to get more sleep

 

[mrt144]

Exactly, all this jostling for whether Wilson is Elite is funny. Because Elite QBs don't have a chance to make the SB unless their name is Brady (and Brady because he refuses to take as much pay so he can pay producers on the rest of the team. Then he just makes it up with endorsements).

Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best QB in the NFL right now. He has little chance at a SB

Brees is also elite by any measure. He also is likely not a shot at the SB.


The only way an elite QB can make the SB is when his contract over time becomes less expensive and the defense is built back up over time. But then those defensive players become expensive and they leave. So the window becomes tremendously short. Even with the all-everything QB there for a decade - he gets 2 maybe 3 real shots at a SB.

Wilson is nowhere near the equal of a Rodgers or Brees, he doesn't have to be. But with a mediocre defense he cannot do what Rodgers and Brees do, which is a carry a team to being a threat in the playoffs and put up a great regular season record.

It is very clear the blueprint to a SB for any team now (ironically) seems to be Very Good or Rookie QB + Significantly Above Average Defense. Elite QB only matters for the Pats.

I think the biggest advantage of going down the route of building a superior defense over 3-4 seasons and taking shots on rookie QBs is that there is so much more risk distributed on the choices you make for defensive players coupled with the QB. Although, I think the Seahawks are likely the first team in the last 10 years to wind up on the other side of that blueprint where they did the damn thing with the en vogue blueprint but became so top heavy retaining their best players over time that they could reasonably get away with poor drafts until they hit a calamitous wall. I'm really interested in seeing the Eagles and Rams wind up 3 to 4 seasons from now and the choices that they make.

It'd be something to have the right blueprint that can net the highest yield in the right circumstances for 3-4 seasons but basically has to be redone and rebalanced every 5-6 years carrying the burden of getting retention and fresh blood just so. Of course, whoever divines that from the chaos of the NFL would warrant a tenure much longer than 5-6 years to see if it sticks and long tenures in the NFL are rarely a given.

Edit: I find one possible aspect of being more vigilant on turning over the roster intriguing. If you know that you aren't going to sign most of your draft picks to 2nd contracts regardless of how good they are, would that make focusing on the draft that much more important yet also a more known quantity to devote your effort on?

I don't believe that you can force vigilance on folks by making their situation appear more dire than it is but...I will always wonder if things would be much different with our draft picks if PCJS had turned over the roster more including RW, K.J Wright, Kam and even Sherman. Not in terms of positions but first contract output.

 

[TwistedHusky]

The big problem I have with the word Elite is
'What is reasonable to expect from Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees?"

'What is reasonable to expect from Russell Wilson?'

My own biases are surfacing. I consider a season without a win outside of the wildcard, when you have a supposed playoff caliber team, to be a failure. I don't think you can expect a SB unless you are just leagues above everyone else. I don't think Wilson has a team he could take to a SB so expecting it of him would be silly.

I think playoff wins are the measure of success over a period of time. But that is my preference and belief, some people would prefer regular season wins.


So what is reasonable to expect from Russell Wilson given the team he has, the cost, and the value to this team long term?

What should we see in terms of regular season and playoff production?

In terms of offensive scoring? (I do not care about yards or % since those are KPIs, the actual SCORE is the way we measure offensive success).

Does calling him Elite change any of the above?

 

[xray]

When Wilson demands and gets Elite money and the rest of the team is mostly comprised of mediocre players because there is no money left and no playoffs for years I hope you Wilson lovers slobber all over his meaningless stats cuz that's all you will have. With Wilson under center the Hawks will give up record sacks, will suck on 3rd downs; and will also suck in the red zone. Look up those stats the last two years. Bottom third in the NFL. If that is elite to you then you probably also think Pete Carroll is an elite coach. I've been a fan since the beginning....1976. When he wants a big contract extension next year I hope they do him like they will do Earl Thomas. Play out his contract and then let him go. Take that money and go buy a new team.,but you guys will probably get your way and he gets paid and the Hawks are stuck with him forever ukeface:

 

[mrt144]

When Wilson demands and gets Elite money and the rest of the team is mostly comprised of mediocre players because there is no money left and no playoffs for years I hope you Wilson lovers slobber all over his meaningless stats cuz that's all you will have. With Wilson under center the Hawks will give up record sacks, will suck on 3rd downs; and will also suck in the red zone. Look up those stats the last two years. Bottom third in the NFL. If that is elite to you then you probably also think Pete Carroll is an elite coach. I've been a fan since the beginning....1976. When he wants a big contract extension next year I hope they do him like they will do Earl Thomas. Play out his contract and then let him go. Take that money and go buy a new team.,but you guys will probably get your way and he gets paid and the Hawks are stuck with him forever ukeface:

Have you ever, ya know, enjoyed being a fan of the Hawks? Doesn't sound like it.

 

[Seymour]

.....but you guys will probably get your way and he gets paid and the Hawks are stuck with him forever ukeface:

Sounds like you have resigned to becoming / staying miserable the next 8+ years. Must suck to be you.

 

[adeltaY]

When Wilson demands and gets Elite money and the rest of the team is mostly comprised of mediocre players because there is no money left and no playoffs for years I hope you Wilson lovers slobber all over his meaningless stats cuz that's all you will have. With Wilson under center the Hawks will give up record sacks, will suck on 3rd downs; and will also suck in the red zone. Look up those stats the last two years. Bottom third in the NFL. If that is elite to you then you probably also think Pete Carroll is an elite coach. I've been a fan since the beginning....1976. When he wants a big contract extension next year I hope they do him like they will do Earl Thomas. Play out his contract and then let him go. Take that money and go buy a new team.,but you guys will probably get your way and he gets paid and the Hawks are stuck with him forever ukeface:

When has buying a new team even worked?

 

[bmorepunk]

When Wilson demands and gets Elite money and the rest of the team is mostly comprised of mediocre players because there is no money left and no playoffs for years I hope you Wilson lovers slobber all over his meaningless stats cuz that's all you will have. With Wilson under center the Hawks will give up record sacks, will suck on 3rd downs; and will also suck in the red zone. Look up those stats the last two years. Bottom third in the NFL. If that is elite to you then you probably also think Pete Carroll is an elite coach. I've been a fan since the beginning....1976. When he wants a big contract extension next year I hope they do him like they will do Earl Thomas. Play out his contract and then let him go. Take that money and go buy a new team.,but you guys will probably get your way and he gets paid and the Hawks are stuck with him forever ukeface:

When has buying a new team even worked?

Starting quality quarterbacks are readily available. Look at all the players other teams easily got that have played well for multiple seasons recently:

- Keenum
- Peterman
- Watson
- Mariota
- Carr
- Bortles
- Tannehil
- Taylor
- Bradford
- Flacco
- Winston
- Luck
- Manning


And we absolutely know these players are going to pan out and will play well for multiple seasons:

- Darnold
- Trbusiky
- Watson
- Mahomes
- Goff
- Garoppolo
- Wentz

That's 21 teams right there that have really good, proven players who did it recently at the position or a near guarantee they'll play well if they're new. Why wouldn't you let a QB like Wilson walk? Easily replaceable. Probably even easier to upgrade, really.

 

[oldhawkfan]

When Wilson demands and gets Elite money and the rest of the team is mostly comprised of mediocre players because there is no money left and no playoffs for years I hope you Wilson lovers slobber all over his meaningless stats cuz that's all you will have. With Wilson under center the Hawks will give up record sacks, will suck on 3rd downs; and will also suck in the red zone. Look up those stats the last two years. Bottom third in the NFL. If that is elite to you then you probably also think Pete Carroll is an elite coach. I've been a fan since the beginning....1976. When he wants a big contract extension next year I hope they do him like they will do Earl Thomas. Play out his contract and then let him go. Take that money and go buy a new team.,but you guys will probably get your way and he gets paid and the Hawks are stuck with him forever ukeface:

I too have been a fan of this team since 1976. And I too have obviously seen the many quality QBs who have played for this team... :shock:

When you have a QB that is at least in the conversation about whether or not he is elite, you have the QB and don’t need to ruin the position on the hope that you might get someone who might be somewhat competent.

 

[hawksincebirth]

However, there is a subset of QBs that can produce in spite of the holes in their team, that produce consistently, and are the primary focal point of the offense yet still consistently produce above average results. By that standard, he is nowhere near these elite QBs. Qbs like Brees, Rodgers and Brady are the only ones you can put in this group.



.

Your argument about a subset of QBs that can produce despite holes in their team describes Wilson perfectly. Last year the o line was historically bad, there was no running game, yet he led the league in TDS and despite a horrific kicker could have had 11 wins and a playoff berth. And this was with a defense that lost numerous stars to season ending injuries. No other QB could have carried his team like he did last year. Yep, elite!

Brady takes last years team to nfc champ game .. he gets the ball out before rushes get there , Rodgers too .. Wilson is not on their level . Pre snap, no. Pocket control, no. Inner clock, no. Blitz Brady or Rodgers you get torched. Contain Wilson and blitz up the middle. He cannot and still cannot beat the blitz in his 7th year

 

[Palmegranite]

I'll take your elite and raise you a once in a generation diamond level quarterback.
The argument should be: how far above these very good quarterbacks will Russell Wilson land should his career continue on for an equivalent run as Rodgers, Brady et al?
And I don't understand the visceral, and what seems to me to be mean-spirited opposition and criticism of RW from fans of the team. I just don't get it. I suppose 'ignore' IS the best option. Good luck fans?

 

[adeltaY]

However, there is a subset of QBs that can produce in spite of the holes in their team, that produce consistently, and are the primary focal point of the offense yet still consistently produce above average results. By that standard, he is nowhere near these elite QBs. Qbs like Brees, Rodgers and Brady are the only ones you can put in this group.



.

Your argument about a subset of QBs that can produce despite holes in their team describes Wilson perfectly. Last year the o line was historically bad, there was no running game, yet he led the league in TDS and despite a horrific kicker could have had 11 wins and a playoff berth. And this was with a defense that lost numerous stars to season ending injuries. No other QB could have carried his team like he did last year. Yep, elite!

Brady takes last years team to nfc champ game .. he gets the ball out before rushes get there , Rodgers too .. Wilson is not on their level . Pre snap, no. Pocket control, no. Inner clock, no. Blitz Brady or Rodgers you get torched. Contain Wilson and blitz up the middle. He cannot and still cannot beat the blitz in his 7th year

Nope. Beat the crap out of the eagles cover zero blitz.

 

[adeltaY]

When Wilson demands and gets Elite money and the rest of the team is mostly comprised of mediocre players because there is no money left and no playoffs for years I hope you Wilson lovers slobber all over his meaningless stats cuz that's all you will have. With Wilson under center the Hawks will give up record sacks, will suck on 3rd downs; and will also suck in the red zone. Look up those stats the last two years. Bottom third in the NFL. If that is elite to you then you probably also think Pete Carroll is an elite coach. I've been a fan since the beginning....1976. When he wants a big contract extension next year I hope they do him like they will do Earl Thomas. Play out his contract and then let him go. Take that money and go buy a new team.,but you guys will probably get your way and he gets paid and the Hawks are stuck with him forever ukeface:

When has buying a new team even worked?

Starting quality quarterbacks are readily available. Look at all the players other teams easily got that have played well for multiple seasons recently:

- Keenum
- Peterman
- Watson
- Mariota
- Carr
- Bortles
- Tannehil
- Taylor
- Bradford
- Flacco
- Winston
- Luck
- Manning


And we absolutely know these players are going to pan out and will play well for multiple seasons:

- Darnold
- Trbusiky
- Watson
- Mahomes
- Goff
- Garoppolo
- Wentz

That's 21 teams right there that have really good, proven players who did it recently at the position or a near guarantee they'll play well if they're new. Why wouldn't you let a QB like Wilson walk? Easily replaceable. Probably even easier to upgrade, really.

LOL. Keenum, Bortles, Flacco, Winston, Carr, Mariota, Bortles and Bradford all suck! Peterman??? Am I missing the sarcasm?

Actually think Mariota could be pretty good...

Yeah I think your trollin

 

[Jimjones0384]

It's less about height and more about consistency. Tom Brady doesn't have games like Russ vs Denver where he simply had a bad day.

If Russ can be more consistent - seeing and hitting open receivers instead of back-peddling into 22-yard sacks, then more people will consider him elite.

This is simply not true. Tom Brady has had plenty of bad games. He had two these last few years against KC, off the top of my head. And you are comparing Russ to the best qb in history. Is that really a fair benchmark?

 

[semiahmoo]

However, there is a subset of QBs that can produce in spite of the holes in their team, that produce consistently, and are the primary focal point of the offense yet still consistently produce above average results. By that standard, he is nowhere near these elite QBs. Qbs like Brees, Rodgers and Brady are the only ones you can put in this group.



.

Your argument about a subset of QBs that can produce despite holes in their team describes Wilson perfectly. Last year the o line was historically bad, there was no running game, yet he led the league in TDS and despite a horrific kicker could have had 11 wins and a playoff berth. And this was with a defense that lost numerous stars to season ending injuries. No other QB could have carried his team like he did last year. Yep, elite!

Brady takes last years team to nfc champ game .. he gets the ball out before rushes get there , Rodgers too .. Wilson is not on their level . Pre snap, no. Pocket control, no. Inner clock, no. Blitz Brady or Rodgers you get torched. Contain Wilson and blitz up the middle. He cannot and still cannot beat the blitz in his 7th year

Sad but true. Brady scorches teams that attempt blitz.

Wilson goes into chicken w/o a head syndrome.

Weird how he hasn't evolved on that aspect of his game by now...

 

[bmorepunk]

When Wilson demands and gets Elite money and the rest of the team is mostly comprised of mediocre players because there is no money left and no playoffs for years I hope you Wilson lovers slobber all over his meaningless stats cuz that's all you will have. With Wilson under center the Hawks will give up record sacks, will suck on 3rd downs; and will also suck in the red zone. Look up those stats the last two years. Bottom third in the NFL. If that is elite to you then you probably also think Pete Carroll is an elite coach. I've been a fan since the beginning....1976. When he wants a big contract extension next year I hope they do him like they will do Earl Thomas. Play out his contract and then let him go. Take that money and go buy a new team.,but you guys will probably get your way and he gets paid and the Hawks are stuck with him forever ukeface:

When has buying a new team even worked?

Starting quality quarterbacks are readily available. Look at all the players other teams easily got that have played well for multiple seasons recently:

- Keenum
- Peterman
- Watson
- Mariota
- Carr
- Bortles
- Tannehil
- Taylor
- Bradford
- Flacco
- Winston
- Luck
- Manning


And we absolutely know these players are going to pan out and will play well for multiple seasons:

- Darnold
- Trbusiky
- Watson
- Mahomes
- Goff
- Garoppolo
- Wentz

That's 21 teams right there that have really good, proven players who did it recently at the position or a near guarantee they'll play well if they're new. Why wouldn't you let a QB like Wilson walk? Easily replaceable. Probably even easier to upgrade, really.

LOL. Keenum, Bortles, Flacco, Winston, Carr, Mariota, Bortles and Bradford all suck! Peterman??? Am I missing the sarcasm?

Actually think Mariota could be pretty good...

Yeah I think your trollin

Yes, missed the sarcasm.

Several of those guys could certainly be good to great. But not very many of them will be anywhere as good as Wilson.

 

[adeltaY]

Sorry bout that dawg. Good bait though, I fell for it.