I really, really hope people follow the last sentence of this thread. Let's get 2012 .NET in here.
Your guess of 11 wins wasn't especially misguided, it was merely a leaning-optimist take that was firmly in play given the limited scope of information we had on the team. That said, 11 wins would probably still have most here pessimistic overall, just as it did in 2019 and 2020 respectively.
It is not as bad as the fanbase at large is pontificating, no. We've known true hopelessness. This is not it. But we are in a suboptimal spot if we want to truly compete. The offense isn't slumping - it's broken on a systemic level. The red zone and third down calls are compromised by a lack of applicable concepts to beat man coverage. Our rushing attack isn't consistent enough to shoulder the offense, and even if it was, our playcaller does not seem especially interested in mandating it into the limelight. Geno has legitimately regressed to about average, and about average feels worse than average when the structure is crumbling around him. Thing is - he doesn't have much he could really do to create anything. The receivers are constantly blanketed, and interior pressure doesn't leave him with much of an opportunity to step up and wait out longer concepts.
We can probably assume safely that this isn't due to a lack of talent on the receiver front. Charbonnet looks good. IOL is an issue.
Defense is being put in such a terrible position by the offense that it's hard to evaluate them. They're always put back on the field faster than they should be.
A lot of the larger, fundamental issues with the team can PROBABLY be fixed with a new offensive staff, just like they were in 2018 - but the lack of postseason success has persisted for too long, and Pete Carroll will never be able to evade blame again as he is now the catchall scapegoat for any negative outcome as the head executive. And now, with Geno unable to operate successfully as the offense has crumbled around him and his cap hit going up to 30m next year, we'll have to settle the score on a new quarterback soon.
There are a lot of decisions coming up that need to be made the right way. But they're not about to be basement dwellers. There ARE paths to the light. This is the NFL. Things change, teams you don't expect to win are liable to start winning.