Great article from the Ringer-Seahawks run

johnnyfever

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 12, 2014
Messages
1,414
Reaction score
60
Location
Spokane
scutterhawk":1lmqogah said:
gammam":1lmqogah said:
Why is it that we blame the play calling when the play fails but when its successful we say the players did it? it just seems selective in trying to build an argument. Couldn't it be that the plays called were actually ok and that they players didn't execute? Why is Russel the king of passing when things go well (and he made some amazing throws) but when he can't complete on 3rd down we don't hold him accountable? Its very selective anger I am hearing.

I'm not arguing that we had a perfect game called by coaches but the bias against the play calling stinks like Bevell hangover...

game 1 and 2 we blamed the play calling too when we didn't run enough. Nobody was saying pass more then. people get angry that on 3 and 17 we run a conservative play which has little to no hope of being successful (there is more to it than that, long developing pass plays need good protection, create dangerous turnover scenarios - one we struggle with and the other we are allergic too). How about don't get in 3rd and 17 with penalties or sacks? Those down and distances do not succeed in the NFL, so playing the numbers makes sense.

We are in close games every game because of the same conservative mentality that we also complain about when it isn't successful. Its hard to lose but suddenly the heavy run game is the worst idea ever?

Dance with the girl you brought. /rant
If the OC is -> ADJUSTING <- he is -> OPTIMIZING <-, if he is staying with a game plan that isn't producing, he deserves the criticisms that are sure to follow.
The Cowboys were the 5th BEST Defense Against The Run all season, which called for a game plan that -> MAXIMIZES <- your Players to compensate for THEIR Players WEAKNESSES.
This is the definition of good coaching. In a salary capped league, maximizing strengths, minimizing weakness and exposing/taking advantage of oppositions weaknesses is the difference between success and failure. I think Pete does a pretty good job of maximizing strengths and minimizing weakness, but he routinely gets blindsided by not gameplanning correctly for the way our opponents are put together. The wild card game made that glaringly obvious. I think this is where Pete needs to focus. He does the rest of his job exceptionally well. We see this as "playing down to bad teams or up to good ones" .

The reality is just do what we do regardless of the other team, and sometimes it works. I don't mind being a run first team, but as has been said, we have the tools here to adjust to win games.

I don't think he will change though. He is set in his ways, and convinced it will eventually work again once the young defense matures. He might be right, but it seems like a much lower probability of success than being able to slightly adapt to take advantage of opportunities when they arise.

If you rewatch the cowboys game, they didnt do anything creative. They just stacked the box and completely sold out to stop the run and contain wilson from running. The back end was always super sparse. As we saw in the 4th quarter, we easily took advantage of that, just wished we would have done it earlier.
 

olyfan63

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 17, 2012
Messages
5,705
Reaction score
1,741
johnnyfever":3maeica6 said:
The reality is just do what we do regardless of the other team, and sometimes it works. I don't mind being a run first team, but as has been said, we have the tools here to adjust to win games.

I don't think he will change though. He is set in his ways, and convinced it will eventually work again once the young defense matures. He might be right, but it seems like a much lower probability of success than being able to slightly adapt to take advantage of opportunities when they arise.

If you rewatch the cowboys game, they didnt do anything creative. They just stacked the box and completely sold out to stop the run and contain wilson from running. The back end was always super sparse. As we saw in the 4th quarter, we easily took advantage of that, just wished we would have done it earlier.

Pete is nothing if not adaptable. Does he always adapt timely? NO.
Pete brings his philosophy and it is one that has worked for him for national titles and a Super Bowl win.
We saw this year how badly Pete was hamstrung by Bevell and Cable for YEARS due to Pete's excessively loyalty to the INCOMPETENT Tom Cable. (In hindsight it's hard to blame Bevell quite so much given the defective Cable O-Lines he had to work with to try to make playcalls work)

The interesting thing is that Pete was actually *right* about his approach, to this game, but Wagner and McDougald BOTH failing to tackle Dak short of the first down and force a field goal--that was an outlier occurrence. If they stop Prescott there, the Seahawks probably win. Then there was Tre Flowers losing contain on that Zeke 41 yard run leading to the Cowboys TD just prior to half--rookie mistake, guarantee he won't make again. However, the larger criticisms are still very valid. Seahawks O going 3 and out repeatedly left an average Seahawks defense out there too long, and they got tired and couldn't stop Dallas, with the most critical failure being the Dak run on 3rd and 14.

Pete's plan A did not allow enough margin for error. As TwistedHusky stated, Pete needed to go in with the plan that the offense needs to score 28 or more, because the D is ilkely to give up 21-24 points against that Dallas O. And really, Pete should have thought in terms of Dallas scoring 28, allowing for fluke plays, a pick 6, etc., and having a game plan/target to score 31, and adjusting in-game with more urgency when it was clear the run game was getting stuffed.

I guarantee Pete will review and reevaluate *everything* this offseason. Schotty will for sure be back, and that is a very good thing. Russell is progressing forward again. I think after Cable Pete may have learned his lesson on excessive loyalty to assistant coaches who are not performing.

The truth is that Pete is one of the most adaptable NFL Head Coaches EVER. Who is more adaptable? Only one comes to mind. Yeah, that guy. Look at all the non-adapting NFL head coaches who are long gone, that Pete has FAR outlasted.

It's HARD to adapt in real-time, in the heat of the moment, in a hard-fought physical battle, and Pete deluded himself, thinking "We're up 14-10 in the 4th, my plan is WORKING!!" I think Pete's adaptation to this year's playoff lesson will take multiple forms, which he will address primarily through offseason planning; yes, he will continue to improve the D; that's a given. Next year's D might be good enough to cover up a failed game plan like the Dallas game, like the '13 and '14 Seahawks D's were. I believe Pete will also work to improve game planning (wtih Schotty) and having a better-developed Plan B and Plan C for when Plan A isn't working, and will develop a better system, with his assistants, on when to switch to Plan B or Plan C during a game.

TwistedHusky had a fantastic analysis earlier in this thread. (Copied below) Maybe Pete will hire him as a game plan and n in-game QC coach, to be his Jiminy Cricket, telling Pete when it's time to cut bait and move to a different plan? Certainly, the game was a strategy and adjustment failure; when our strength (Run offense) failed to overpower their strength (Run defense), we did not adjust rapidly enough, to try a different strength (Russell's passing, and maybe even an up-tempo offense) and force Dallas to try to adapt to that strength.

TwistedHusky":3maeica6 said:
The best players play even better in the playoffs.
Our best player is Wilson.

Wouldn't it make sense to adjust our approach in order to allow him to have more impact on the game, knowing that his escalating his level of play gives us a much better chance to win.

I get playing the %s but you are playing bad math if you think putting the outcome of the game on lesser players is going to pan out for you.

We relied on our average defense to save the game (which made no sense) in hoping it would not give up scores. That was a mistake.

We expected our offense to be able to keep the game close and then allow Wilson to come back near the end. But that neglects the reality that each failed offensive possession in the interim is going to make you have to spin the wheel with your defense. Some of those possessions are going to result in the opposing offense scoring.

They did and people blamed the defense. But those people are morons. Because the defense did its job. It allowed scoring that was below the league average. The offense did not meet the league average in this game. Your magic # is 28.
28 pts is what a winner generally scores. Our defense gave up 24.

We seemed to be satisfied when we hit 14-10 but we were nowhere near on pace to hit 28 and our defense was assuredly going to give up additional scores. So we lost - because that is exactly what happened.
 

Fade

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 13, 2014
Messages
5,454
Reaction score
2,988
Location
Truth Ray
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/


R-R-P is literally the worst approach not only league wide, but also with the SEAHAWKS!

Seattle R-R-P more than anyone in the league.

The most effective approach is P-P-R league wide which of course is not coincidentally the opposite of R-R-P.


"Over the course of the 2018 season, there was no three-play sequence that Seattle favored more than rush-rush-pass. The Seahawks called rush-rush-pass 26 percent of the time, a rate 10 percentage points higher than league average. Yet despite the high frequency with which Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer used the pattern, they were not successful with it. Just 41.2 percent of their rush-rush-pass sequences ended in success. Meanwhile, on three-play sequences where the Seahawks started with a pass and mixed in a run afterward, they were successful 88.9 percent of the time (pass-rush-rush), 71.4 percent of the time (pass-pass-rush) and 50 percent (pass-rush-pass) of the time."
 

mrt144

New member
Joined
Dec 30, 2010
Messages
4,065
Reaction score
0
Fade":37xn1uko said:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/


R-R-P is literally the worst approach not only league wide, but also with the SEAHAWKS!

Seattle R-R-P more than anyone in the league.

The most effective approach is P-P-R league wide which of course is not coincidentally the opposite of R-R-P.


"Over the course of the 2018 season, there was no three-play sequence that Seattle favored more than rush-rush-pass. The Seahawks called rush-rush-pass 26 percent of the time, a rate 10 percentage points higher than league average. Yet despite the high frequency with which Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer used the pattern, they were not successful with it. Just 41.2 percent of their rush-rush-pass sequences ended in success. Meanwhile, on three-play sequences where the Seahawks started with a pass and mixed in a run afterward, they were successful 88.9 percent of the time (pass-rush-rush), 71.4 percent of the time (pass-pass-rush) and 50 percent (pass-rush-pass) of the time."

Do Pete and Schotty have enough humility to soak this in?

Edit: This also reminds me of looking at the run direction stats from Football Outsiders in 2016 and 2017 and seeing a consistent pattern where the direction and types of run that were most selected were also the least effective which isn't too surprising except for LEAST effective. LEAST.
 

Scorpion05

Active member
Joined
Dec 13, 2016
Messages
1,722
Reaction score
10
We came into this season knowing that the defense was young, we lacked depth, and that the offense would have to shoulder much of the burden. Yet we have media members and fans blaming the defense. Unbelievable
 

Jville

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2007
Messages
13,269
Reaction score
1,651
Biased Article IMO

The author of the Ringer article self identifies as antagonistic toward Brian Schottenheimer and Pete Carroll style of football. That doesn't support any semblance of a balanced article offering any useful utility. What such biased and narrowly focused articles do is generate comments of similar bias from similar antagonists. Perhaps that is it's sole purpose.
 

John63

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 19, 2018
Messages
6,651
Reaction score
149
Jville":364oucps said:
Biased Article IMO

The author of the Ringer article self identifies as antagonistic toward Brian Schottenheimer and Pete Carroll style of football. That doesn't support any semblance of a balanced article offering any useful utility. What such biased and narrowly focused articles do is generate comments of similar bias from similar antagonists. Perhaps that is it's sole purpose.
'Perhaps or maybe he is correct, a lot of articles, and experts, and PC and Schotty have said they should have adjusted earlier
 

Jville

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2007
Messages
13,269
Reaction score
1,651
John63":23u8xbpo said:
Jville":23u8xbpo said:
Biased Article IMO

The author of the Ringer article self identifies as antagonistic toward Brian Schottenheimer and Pete Carroll style of football. That doesn't support any semblance of a balanced article offering any useful utility. What such biased and narrowly focused articles do is generate comments of similar bias from similar antagonists. Perhaps that is it's sole purpose.
'Perhaps or maybe he is correct, a lot of articles, and experts, and PC and Schotty have said they should have adjusted earlier

Of course he is ........ trapped in his own biased and antagonistic mind set ....... LOL
 

John63

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 19, 2018
Messages
6,651
Reaction score
149
Jville":35pvkm6o said:
John63":35pvkm6o said:
Jville":35pvkm6o said:
Biased Article IMO

The author of the Ringer article self identifies as antagonistic toward Brian Schottenheimer and Pete Carroll style of football. That doesn't support any semblance of a balanced article offering any useful utility. What such biased and narrowly focused articles do is generate comments of similar bias from similar antagonists. Perhaps that is it's sole purpose.
'Perhaps or maybe he is correct, a lot of articles, and experts, and PC and Schotty have said they should have adjusted earlier

Of course he is ........ trapped in his own biased and antagonistic mind set ....... LOL

Sounds more like you dont agree so he is biased.
 

Jville

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2007
Messages
13,269
Reaction score
1,651
John63":1n5x057c said:
Jville":1n5x057c said:
John63":1n5x057c said:
Jville":1n5x057c said:
Biased Article IMO

The author of the Ringer article self identifies as antagonistic toward Brian Schottenheimer and Pete Carroll style of football. That doesn't support any semblance of a balanced article offering any useful utility. What such biased and narrowly focused articles do is generate comments of similar bias from similar antagonists. Perhaps that is it's sole purpose.
'Perhaps or maybe he is correct, a lot of articles, and experts, and PC and Schotty have said they should have adjusted earlier

Of course he is ........ trapped in his own biased and antagonistic mind set ....... LOL

Sounds more like you dont agree so he is biased.

Omission is the friend of bias.

As an example, Schottenheimer and Wilson were down to two wide receivers that they fully trusted going into the wild card weekend ...... Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. And that had an impact on the game plan and on the options available to them. The competition had come to understand the role of the rest of the wide receivers as decoys or blockers. In fact, running back J.D. McKissic finally saw some action as an alternative receiver. And, hind sight might have wished that had of happen sooner.

There are other relevant omissions that befriends an authors bias. As an exercise, I'll leave it to you to uncover and identify other glaring omissions made by the article's author.
 
Top