Help Please... (playoff scenarios)

[MizzouHawkGal]

If we are a wildcard and GB is a wildcard, would we play GB at Clink?

Yes. We hold the tiebreaker against them. This is why winning the next 3 games are critical because at that point we would hold all the tiebreakers except Dallas. Basically 2-2 is hope and prayer time that we get a lot of help, 3-1 is either the 5th WC spot or the number three seed maybe the second seed, 4-0 is the 1st or 2nd seed depending on what Green Bay does.

 

[SeatownJay]

Oh, and in other playoff news of note for pmedic, TCU needs to win and have at least one of Baylor/Alabama/Oregon/Florida State to lose this Saturday to make the college playoffs.

 

[iigakusei]

So tonight Go Bears! I do think Chicago has a real chance for the win.

 

[Cartire]

Oh, and in other playoff news of note for pmedic, TCU needs to win and have at least one of Baylor/Alabama/Oregon/Florida State to lose this Saturday to make the college playoffs.

If TCU wins convincingly, they are in the playoffs regardless. They dont need any of those other teams to lose. They are already #3 seed.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

So tonight Go Bears! I do think Chicago has a real chance for the win.

I was listening to Chicago Sports radio and they seem fairly confident.

 

[volsunghawk]

So tonight Go Bears! I do think Chicago has a real chance for the win.

Not if they play like they did on Thanksgiving.

With that said, the dream week for us would be Chicago beating Dallas, Atlanta upsetting Green Bay, and Seattle beating Philly.

If those three things happen, Seattle controls its own destiny for HFA and needs no other help.

 

[pmedic920]

Oh, and in other playoff news of note for pmedic, TCU needs to win and have at least one of Baylor/Alabama/Oregon/Florida State to lose this Saturday to make the college playoffs.

Oh I see, Mr.smarty pants been paying attention.
Yea I'm a FrogFan. I also pull for Baylor and feel bad for them over the head to head controversy, but that's for another thread.

 

[pmedic920]

If we win the NFCW, is it possible that the Cards and 9ers pull the wild cards ?
Seems to me it is. That would be crazy, huh?

Or is there any way that the NFCW gets 3 of the spots?

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

If we win the NFCW, is it possible that the Cards and 9ers pull the wild cards ?
Seems to me it is. That would be crazy, huh?

Or is there any way that the NFCW gets 3 of the spots?

Yes but it would require some ridiculous possible outcomes to become fact to achieve it. Such as Detroit and Green Bay imploding and Arizona at least winning 2 games or 3 games.

 

[volsunghawk]

If we win the NFCW, is it possible that the Cards and 9ers pull the wild cards ?
Seems to me it is. That would be crazy, huh?

Or is there any way that the NFCW gets 3 of the spots?

Yes, it's possible. In fact, there's a scenario where we all finish 11-5, and Seattle takes the division.

San Francisco would have to win out.

The Cardinals would beat KC and St. Louis, but lose to us and the 49ers.

We would win every remaining game except the SF game.

That gives us the division and the #3 seed and we get to host Arizona on WC weekend, while SF has to go play New Orleans or Atlanta.

This involves Detroit losing to GB and to Chicago in the final two weeks, for the record.

 

[Cartire]

I feel like pmedic is in some sort of competition to pull conversation.

A lot of questions seem fake in their sincerity, especially since I know you know most these answers.

 

[bigskydoc]

My bet is we come out with the 3 spot

Starting with the 4 spot. This goes to either Atlanta or New Orleans and has no effect on our seeding.

The 1 spot goes to Green Bay as I don't see them losing to Atlanta or Detroit at home or Buffalo or Tampa on the road. The game to watch IMHO is next week Green Bay at Buffalo. I could see Buffalo stealing a win if Green Bay gets caught napping. Spiller won't be back, so even this is unlikely. I don't see Atlanta or Detroit taking a win IN Green Bay


This weekend shakes out the seeding for the 2/3/5 spots.

Philly only has one potential loss coming up (against Seattle this week) so they will either go 13-3 and claim the 2nd seed or 12-4 and claim the 3rd seed. They will win out against Dallas, Redskins, and NY Giants in the final three weeks.

I don't see the Hawks dropping a game after this weekend (Niners, Zona, and Rams) although the Zona game in Phoenix will be tough. So the question is are we going 11-5 or 12-4. We find out this weekend. Win, and we claim the 2 spot at 12-4. Lose and we either get the 3 or the 5 depending on what happens with Arizona.

In weeks 16 and 17, Zona is going 1-1 with a loss to us than a narrow win in Santa Clara. I'm guessing that they beat the Rams next week too. That puts them at 11-4 before we add in this weekend's game against KC. So for the year, they are going 11-5 or 12-4 same as us. A record tied with ours gives us the 3 seed at worst.

IMHO, Arizona is the most unpredictable team going into this stretch of the season. Injuries have absolutely killed them this year, and they continue to hemorrhage players at an alarming rate. It is not unthinkable that they drop 3 or even 4 of their final games. Still, I don't think the Rams recently found success is sustainable any more than the Cards recent lack of success. They will both regress to their mean. My prediction is the Cards lose this weekend and end up at 11-5 with the 5th seed

Detroit has a fairly straightforward run into the 6 seed at 11-5 for the year. Currently sitting at 8-4, they will lose to the Packers and likely defeat the Buccaneers, Vikings and Bears. Even at 10-6 they will take the 6 seed over the Cowboys who are likely to end at 10-6 after victories over Chicago and Washington and losses to Colts and Eagles. Should Detroit drop one the the Vikings and Dallas steal a win against the Colts, then Dallas gets the six seed.

In the AFC, NE gets the 1 seed at 13-3 and Denver the 2 seed at 13-3, just like I predicted in the preseason. Other than that, I hardly care.

- bsd

 

[pmedic920]

That's crazy when you think back a few years, when the NFCW was being called the worst div. in the NFL.

The Rams are upwardly moving and IMHO the NFCW is the toughest/best div. in the NFL now.
And I think will be for a while.

 

[mjwhitay]

I like how everyone assumes that if we were to win out that everyone else would too. If we do, then the eagles would have at least 4 losses and the cowboys and eagles play each other still. Why is it a guarantee that the Eagles beat the giants and redskins. Haven't we learned anything yet about division games in the NFL?

I think the only team that can match a 12-4 or better is green bay, maybe Philly, but we'll have beat them both. If the pack get nipped once, and Seattle wins out, I think you're looking at the #1 seed.

 

[BlueTalons]

The win at Santa Clara was HUGE because it basically takes the playoff field down from 5 of 7 teams to 5 out of 6 teams (I don't count NFCS - they're on an island.) Or more simply put, 3 teams fighting for 2 wild-cards.

So I believe the easiest way to explain our worst-case (10-6 including 9ers sweep) but still make the playoffs is: as long as we are tied or better with the Lions we are in. This means we are either in a 3-way tie with Lions/Cowboys (which we win) or are in a H2H only with the Lions (which we win.) Even a 3-way with Lions/Eagles we win. So it kind of hinges on what the Lions do for our worst-case but still in scenario.

 

[kearly]

I know this isn't a prediction thread, but I think GB has the #1 in the bag. Their final four games are all cakewalks or at home. The biggest challenger is Detroit in week 17, but Detroit is a dome team going to Lambeau in the dead of winter. Hard to have optimism there.

I am totally fine with the #2 seed. Rodgers has a history of being miserable at home in the playoffs. On the chance that Seattle is riding a seven game win streak by the NFCCG, I'd feel pretty good about them winning in Lambeau, and NFCCG are never ever 10am starts.

 

[PackerNation]

I know this isn't a prediction thread, but I think GB has the #1 in the bag. Their final four games are all cakewalks or at home. The biggest challenger is Detroit in week 17, but Detroit is a dome team going to Lambeau in the dead of winter. Hard to have optimism there.

I am totally fine with the #2 seed. Rodgers has a history of being miserable at home in the playoffs. On the chance that Seattle is riding a seven game win streak by the NFCCG, I'd feel pretty good about them winning in Lambeau, and NFCCG are never ever 10am starts.

We don't think we have the #1 locked up. Not yet, anyway. Too much can happen between now and week 17. As far as Detroit goes, we have not lost to them in Lambeau in a long time. Actually, 1991, to be exact.

To be fair, Rodgers is 5-4 in the playoffs and 1-2 in Lambeau. He is not terrible at home or even in bad weather. It was one bad loss to the Giants in 2011 (horrible upset and we were bad on both sides of the ball) and a defensive struggle against the 49ers. I thought the 49ers were the 2nd best team in the NFL that year. 2nd only to the Seahawks.

I think the concern for Seattle is to just get in the playoffs. Your team is built for good conditions and bad. Especially cold and sloppy weather. You have the best defense in the NFL and a power running game to control the ball. If I were a Seahawk faithful, I would not care where we play any opponent. With the possible exception of playing a dome team, in a dome. Even then, I like Seattle's chances. I think Wilson is the 2nd best QB in the NFL behind Rodgers. I would take Wilson over Manning, any day. Wilson can run, Manning can't. Wilson is just as smart.

As far as Green Bay is concerned, if we have to play Seattle, we want it in Lambeau. No need to go back up to C-Link and try to beat you in your own house. Tough venue with bad memories. Even so, we are up to the challenge.

Good luck the rest of the way. I hope we meet in the NFCCG. The 2 best teams in the NFL start the season and end the season with the victor taking home another trophy.

 

[Hawks46]

Ok, so if we don't win NFCW.

What do you y'all see as the wildcard picture?

Detroit is in the mix, with a bunch of others close.
Can we make it going 2-2 in last 4?

If we don't get the #1 seed, we'll likely end up with the #5 seed. Which is probably the most favorable seed after the 1 seed, believe it or not. The 5 seed will end up playing the NFCS divisional winner, which at this point is either Atlanta or New Orleans.

Both of those teams can have great days at home, but they are both very flawed teams that we would literally take apart. I could see us playing backups in the 4th quarter. It would be the closest thing to a 1st round bye we could get.

 

[morgulon1]

Who would YOU like to see get the other wildcard IF we are the first?

Detroit.

Why Detroit? Just curious.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Who would YOU like to see get the other wildcard IF we are the first?

Detroit.

Why Detroit? Just curious.

Because they will find a way to lose unlike San Francisco. Some teams have a history of stepping it up in the playoffs and Detroit isn't one of them.