Shock2k
New member
In defense of Seattle’s Offense
We’ve been grinding it out with some of the top defenses of the league through the end of the season and the playoffs. Save for the Rams game, they have been heart attack causing, stomach cramping, sleepless night inducing affairs.
Personally they have been enough to completely kill the excitement of winning the NFC Championship. I just didn’t have the energy after the game to get jacked up. I think the best way to describe my feelings after the game would be “relief”.
So now that the hangover has worn off, I start asking the questions around what could hurt us during the next game. I’ve been over on the Bronco’s boards and a majority of fans think there is no way our offense can keep up with Payton F'ing Manning IF they shut down Marshawn Lynch.
Denver fans, you don't think that every team this season has had the same thought. Guess what, we ended the Season 13-3, largely on our run game. You think your 19th ranked defense is going to shut him down… well that’s a defensive conversation and not for this discussion. Seriously, good luck shutting down Marshawn Lynch, aka Beast Mode, with the Super Bowl on the line.
So “What IF” then they shut down Beast Mode (I know just give me a little latitude here). People including me (until I did this research) think that Russell has suddenly become a game manager and can no longer "carry the team".
They also think Russell can’t go toe to toe with Manning if it becomes a shootout.
And to me (and I think some other folks), this has been a huge cause for concern. We’ve blamed:
1) Play calling,
2) Fanatic no mistake passing (no INT under any circumstances, OR don’t take chances)
3) No more Russell Wilson positive rushing yardage (Planned QB runs shut down)
4) Bad Offensive line play
5) “Poor”, “Average”, “Mediocre”, “Pedestrian Receiving core”
6) No TE Involvement
7) Injuries
In that context, I’ve had to questions spinning around in my head.
1) What happened to the high flying offense of last year?
2) Has the offensive “Style” change negatively impacted offensive production?
To be frank, in my mind, the answers are, Yes and Yes. (BUT, continue reading)
Well let’s look at the difference between the 2012 and 2013 Seasons
The following table is broken down by points scored by Seattle against defenses ranked 15 and under, and defenses ranked 15 and higher. Two Tables one for the 2012 Season and one for the 2013 Season.
[th]2012 Season Scoring v. DVOA Defense[/th]
[th]2013 Season Scoring v. DVOA Defense[/th]
Ok, so the point. My expectation was there would be a large drop off in at least one of these categories. The point of the layout was because my assumption is there would be a drop in per game point production. Further I split between top and bottom defenses to see if this had an effect.
Well the results are exactly the same year to year. Which really blew my mind. In fact for teams with a 15th (Like the one we are going to play in the SB) or worse defense our points per game actually went up by +1.25 points per game.
That’s better in 2013, and last year we had 3 50 point games at the end of the Season. To me this may hint at a move towards better consistency.
Personally, this epiphany made me feel a lot better about this game. I believe the Seahawks can go toe to toe with Payton Manning if the game turns into a shootout (with the balancing factor being Seattle Defense). Which though that’s a possibility against the #1 offense in the league, I trust our defense to not let a game get out of hand (because besides TB, they have not let a game get out of hand).
There are larger discussions around receiving when making these points, but I feel that’s been addressed:
Here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=86129
and Here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=83820
and Here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=80639
The conclusion I’ve come to is the Seahawks have not been having “problems” on offense. They’ve just been playing top defensive teams that got better from last year until now(AZ, SF, NYG, etc, etc). So don’t let the analysts smoke and mirror you into thinking there are major issues with our offense. We can score as many points as it will take to defeat the Broncos.
The only team that can beat the Seahawks now is the Seahawks.
We all we got, we all we need.
Go Hawks!
We’ve been grinding it out with some of the top defenses of the league through the end of the season and the playoffs. Save for the Rams game, they have been heart attack causing, stomach cramping, sleepless night inducing affairs.
Personally they have been enough to completely kill the excitement of winning the NFC Championship. I just didn’t have the energy after the game to get jacked up. I think the best way to describe my feelings after the game would be “relief”.
So now that the hangover has worn off, I start asking the questions around what could hurt us during the next game. I’ve been over on the Bronco’s boards and a majority of fans think there is no way our offense can keep up with Payton F'ing Manning IF they shut down Marshawn Lynch.
Denver fans, you don't think that every team this season has had the same thought. Guess what, we ended the Season 13-3, largely on our run game. You think your 19th ranked defense is going to shut him down… well that’s a defensive conversation and not for this discussion. Seriously, good luck shutting down Marshawn Lynch, aka Beast Mode, with the Super Bowl on the line.
So “What IF” then they shut down Beast Mode (I know just give me a little latitude here). People including me (until I did this research) think that Russell has suddenly become a game manager and can no longer "carry the team".
They also think Russell can’t go toe to toe with Manning if it becomes a shootout.
And to me (and I think some other folks), this has been a huge cause for concern. We’ve blamed:
1) Play calling,
2) Fanatic no mistake passing (no INT under any circumstances, OR don’t take chances)
3) No more Russell Wilson positive rushing yardage (Planned QB runs shut down)
4) Bad Offensive line play
5) “Poor”, “Average”, “Mediocre”, “Pedestrian Receiving core”
6) No TE Involvement
7) Injuries
In that context, I’ve had to questions spinning around in my head.
1) What happened to the high flying offense of last year?
2) Has the offensive “Style” change negatively impacted offensive production?
To be frank, in my mind, the answers are, Yes and Yes. (BUT, continue reading)
Well let’s look at the difference between the 2012 and 2013 Seasons
The following table is broken down by points scored by Seattle against defenses ranked 15 and under, and defenses ranked 15 and higher. Two Tables one for the 2012 Season and one for the 2013 Season.
Week | Opponent | Results | v. DVOA Def | SEA Score | v. Def<15 | v. Def>15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | at Cardinals | L16–20 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 0 |
2 | Cowboys | W27–7 | 23 | 27 | 0 | 27 |
3 | Packers | W14–12 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 0 |
4 | at Rams | L13–19 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 0 |
5 | at Panthers | W16–12 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 0 |
6 | Patriots | W24–23 | 15 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
7 | at 49ers | L6–13 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
8 | at Lions | L24–28 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 24 |
9 | Vikings | W30–20 | 21 | 30 | 0 | 30 |
10 | Jets | W28–7 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 0 |
12 | at Dolphins | L21–24 | 14 | 21 | 21 | 0 |
13 | at Bears | W23–17(OT) | 1 | 23 | 23 | 0 |
14 | Cardinals | W58–0 | 6 | 58 | 58 | 0 |
15 | at Bills | W50–17 | 27 | 50 | 0 | 50 |
16 | 49ers | W42–13 | 1 | 42 | 42 | 0 |
17 | Rams | W20–13 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 0 |
Wk | Opponent | Result | v. DVOA Def | SEA Score | v. Def<15 | v.Def>15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | @Panthers | W12-7 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 |
2 | 49ers | W29-3 | 3 | 29 | 29 | 0 |
3 | Jaguars | W45-17 | 32 | 45 | 0 | 45 |
4 | @Texans | W23-20 | 18 | 23 | 0 | 23 |
5 | @Colts | L28-34 | 16 | 28 | 0 | 28 |
6 | Titans | W20-13 | 8 | 20 | 20 | 0 |
7 | @Cardinals | W34-22 | 2 | 34 | 34 | 0 |
8 | @Rams | W14-9 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 0 |
9 | Buccaneers | W27-24 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 0 |
10 | @Falcons | W33-10 | 29 | 33 | 0 | 33 |
11 | Vikings | W41-20 | 27 | 41 | 0 | 41 |
13 | Saints | W34-7 | 10 | 34 | 34 | 0 |
14 | @49ers | L17-19 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 0 |
15 | @Giants | W23-0 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 0 |
16 | Cardinals | L10-17 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
17 | Rams | W27-9 | 12 | 27 | 27 | 0 |
Ok, so the point. My expectation was there would be a large drop off in at least one of these categories. The point of the layout was because my assumption is there would be a drop in per game point production. Further I split between top and bottom defenses to see if this had an effect.
Well the results are exactly the same year to year. Which really blew my mind. In fact for teams with a 15th (Like the one we are going to play in the SB) or worse defense our points per game actually went up by +1.25 points per game.
Points Against vs Top/Bottom Defenses | ||
---|---|---|
Year | Avg. Pts v. Def<15 | Avg. Ptsv. Def>15 |
2012 | 23.9 | 32.75 |
2013 | 22.45 | 34 |
That’s better in 2013, and last year we had 3 50 point games at the end of the Season. To me this may hint at a move towards better consistency.
Personally, this epiphany made me feel a lot better about this game. I believe the Seahawks can go toe to toe with Payton Manning if the game turns into a shootout (with the balancing factor being Seattle Defense). Which though that’s a possibility against the #1 offense in the league, I trust our defense to not let a game get out of hand (because besides TB, they have not let a game get out of hand).
There are larger discussions around receiving when making these points, but I feel that’s been addressed:
Here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=86129
and Here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=83820
and Here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=80639
The conclusion I’ve come to is the Seahawks have not been having “problems” on offense. They’ve just been playing top defensive teams that got better from last year until now(AZ, SF, NYG, etc, etc). So don’t let the analysts smoke and mirror you into thinking there are major issues with our offense. We can score as many points as it will take to defeat the Broncos.
The only team that can beat the Seahawks now is the Seahawks.
We all we got, we all we need.
Go Hawks!