Is Russell Wilson worth 6 years $129m???

[hawk45]

Nobody will answer the question the first several times I asked it, so I had to try to come up with another way to ask it.

Can't answer the question, so it becomes much easier to attack the poster for asking it.

How much is too much? Anybody? Bueller? Let us get real here. Let us get specific. How much is too much? At what point would you say no?

While we are at it. Can anybody answer the other question? How will we be able to judge whether or not paying him big money was a good decision?

Russell will be kept no matter what but if the asking price got too ridiculous the franchise tag would put him at the avg of the top-5 salaried QBs would it not?

I would say that upwards of 26 is where the franchise tag starts entering the conversation. We want a long-term deal and he wants a long-term deal, but he and his agent would recognize that at a certain price, the franchise tag becomes an attractive option, and at that point yeah that's hard on our cap, but on Russ's side, there is no huge pile of guaranteed money.

 

[Popeyejones]

"Whatever he wants" is going to be a manageable cap number for everyone involved. Do you think Russell is a selfish player that only cares about extracting as much money from the Hawks as possible? Or do you think he has more lofty goals and desires for his career like winning as many SB's as possible and being one of the greatest of all time?

If there ever was a selfless player that wants to keep his team as competitive as possible in order to achieve personal and team goals, it's Russell.

This might be true, but I think pinning your hopes on it is a mistake. For all the talk among fans of gigantic hometown discounts, they just don't seem to ever happen that much.

Also, just to say it, St. Russ might be jesus-like in his selflessness, but the Hawks and their fans will have gotten four years of his brilliance at an unproven place kicker's salary. At one point, rather than citing his selflessness, do we even out the equation and say that expecting him to not get fairly compensated for his work is just kinda selfish?

 

[Cartire]

Tical. How about this. I know your original thought is just redraft another qb and dump Wilson.

BUT, in the context of him staying here, how much would YOU pay him? How much is he currently worth to YOU?

And so I answer your question as to not be rude, I would WANT/HOPE to pay him $18-22. I wouldnt let him walk though until +$25. After that, no, I would no longer meet his demands.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

. At one point, rather than citing his selflessness, do we even out the equation and say that expecting him to not get fairly compensated for his work is just kinda selfish?

Absolutely not, I expect and Russell deserves to get paid. He knows that, his agent knows that, the NFLPA knows that.........and the Hawks know that.

But this isn't going to be a Flacco, Bradford or even a Stafford crippling contracts. I think it'll be more along the lines of the contract Rodgers just signed, nice and low and escalating towards the 22 million everyone's talking about.........with almost all of it guaranteed.

 

[Tical21]

Tical. How about this. I know your original thought is just redraft another qb and dump Wilson.

BUT, in the context of him staying here, how much would YOU pay him? How much is he currently worth to YOU?

And so I answer your question as to not be rude, I would WANT/HOPE to pay him $18-22. I wouldnt let him walk though until +$25. After that, no, I would no longer meet his demands.

Thanks bud. I'm probably closer to the 15 million side. Even that seems pretty huge, but I wouldn't let him walk over it.

It will go one of three ways. It could be the a-hole in Russell Wilson drawing a line in the sand and holding out for 25+. It could be that everybody in the room including Russell knows he isn't worth near that much and we get an awesome bargain, or the most likely scenario which is somewhere in-between, around 20-22 million, something like that.

I don't want to come across like I'm not a huge Russell Wilson fan. Of course I am, the kid has been pretty amazing. I've been waiting for a Super Bowl my whole life and he finally delivered us one. I don't take that for granted, despite my stance.

I'm not going to be looking for doom and gloom when we re-sign him. It isn't like I don't see the benefits of doing so. My kid has a Russell Wilson jersey that I bought for him. I just wouldn't bet my house on him being a Superstar capable of carrying a team on his back for a generation. I sincerely hope I am very wrong.

As a side note, I was thinking the one and only way I can ever be proven right is if Russell is hurt for a playoff stretch and we win the Super Bowl anyways. So. since that has quite a low probability of ever happening, I will forever be known as the Russell Wilson hater, sitting in the back row with Mel and Hugh.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Tical, how many Super Bowl wins will it take AFTER Wilson's making big dough for you to no longer think he's overpaid assuming he's making like $19m/year or more?

Five? Seven? Every single year until he retires?

 

[Popeyejones]

I'm probably closer to the 15 million side. Even that seems pretty huge, but I wouldn't let him walk over it.

FWIW, I'm in that 15-16 range too. TBF though, I'm also a 9ers fan who never really liked Smith that much but thinks the 9ers would be better of long term with Smith at 9 million than Kaepernick at 14 (with de-escalators, which, if we go back in all the threads, is MUCH, MUCH lower than everyone was expecting).

I guess I think the Hawks can still *kinda* be the Hawks (albeit likely an inferior version of themselves) with Wilson at 15-16, just as the 9ers can still *kinda* be the 9ers (albeit likely an inferior version of themselves) with Kaepernick at 13-14. At 21 million + though I think once all the pieces settle the Hawks can't really be the Hawks they've been. That could work, and it could not. There's not an easy answer here because the cap is a reality. Everyone has to deal with it.


People won't like the following ( :lol: :lol:

IMO, oddly enough, I think the Hawks are particularly unequipped to deal with the reality of the cap because all their talent is bunched up in its prime and entering its prime.* If the Hawks had assembled this squad pre-salary cap era they'd be up there with the Steelers of the 70s, and 9ers of 80s, as the best dynasty of all time, if not better than them.

*Explanation: The Hawks don't have the "bridging" guys who have already gotten their first or second payday and can be extended a year or two on discount because of their age and b/c they've already been paid. Those guys -- the Anquan Boldins, Justin Smiths, and Frank Gores of the world -- are REALLY useful from both a cap perspective (no long term money commitments) and from a reloading perspective (you can buy yourself an extra year or two to hit on your replacements, if need be). The shorthand for this is that Boldin for two years on the 9ers >>>>>>> Tate on the Lions for the Hawks, even though Tate is the better player, IMO.

 

[Sarlacc83]

15-16 million for Russell Wilson. That is the most hilarioua thing I've heard all day. Thanks for the laugh, guys.

Oh wait.....you're serious? That's nearly less than Alex Smith.

@Popeye. Our GM already has a roadmap for salaries. Maybe you should bow out of the conversation instead of continuing to make ignorant statements which belie your inability to make a real contribution to the thread. Especially since you value Alex Smith at 9 million when he's set to earn an average of 15 million a season next year. Quit equivocating in order to make your opinion of Wilson's next contract look reasonable at 15 per.

 

[Popeyejones]

15-16 million for Russell Wilson. That is the most hilarioua thing I've heard all day. Thanks for the laugh, guys.

To be clear, neither of us said this is all he's going to get, we just both said that in an ideal world it's the price point we'd be comfortable with. (Remember, I've been questioning what it means for the 9ers long term for Kap to get LESS than this, that "less" being b/c I don't think he's as good).

Oh wait.....you're serious? That's less than Alex Smith.

You're right. I've been misquoting Smith's new salary throughout this thread. On this new deal he's getting paid more than Kaepernick throughout it. That's dumb.

@Popeye. Our GM already has a roadmap for salaries. Maybe you should bow out of the conversation instead of continuing to make ignorant statements which belie your inability to make a real contribution to the thread.

Every GM of every NFL team has a road map for salaries. Where in the world did I imply otherwise? Pretending that I don't believe that GMs have road maps for salaries makes me ignorant? Sure, whatever want, man.

 

[Sarlacc83]

@Popeye. Our GM already has a roadmap for salaries. Maybe you should bow out of the conversation instead of continuing to make ignorant statements which belie your inability to make a real contribution to the thread.

Every GM of every NFL team has a road map for salaries. Where in the world did I imply otherwise? Pretending that I don't believe that GMs have road maps for salaries makes me ignorant? Sure, whatever want, man.

You said the Hawks are unequipped to handle the team's salaries because they all come during the players' primes. How is that not the equivalent statement that Schneider can't handle the load ( after he has already shown his ability to do so.)? Thus my comment about raodmaps directly refutes that statement. C'mon read what you wrote.

 

[sc85sis]

As long as Carroll and Wilson are with this team, they will be competitive....


If you look at the Patriots, that's exactly how they managed to succeed long after everyone thought the salary cap would do them in. Yes, it is harder to win Superbowls, but you can still win.

The Patriots! That's a great example!

If you want to stay competitive like the Patriots you get your head coach, your QB, two or three other key guys and everyone else is totally replaceable.

If you want to stay competitive b/c of your coach and your QB like the Patriots you need to be in the top 5 in pass attempts per game, not the bottom five in pass attempts per game.

The Hawks absolutely COULD do that and stay competitive for a decade. I'm not saying they can't. Wilson IMO has as good of a chance of getting there as any young QB.

For the Hawks to follow the Patriots' blueprint though they have to fundamentally change how they win. Running backs and defensive players for the Patriots over the last ten years have been replaceable, because unlike the Hawks, the Pats don't win with the running game and their defense. Same with the Packers. Same with the Saints. Same with the Falcons. Same with the Broncos.

I'm not saying the Hawks can't be like these guys, I'm saying they can't both win like these teams win and maintain how they've been winning. You just can't pay a QB 20 million + and not be a QB-centered team. (And you can talk about how important and awesome Wilson is all you want and I won't disagree, but when your QB averages less attempts per start than any other QB in the NFL, there's no way around it: you're NOT a QB-centered team.)

Compared to the situation in SF, the Seahawks are in a very good position.

Ehh, the Hawks have MUCH, MUCH more talent in the prime and entering the prime of their careers, but because of the salary cap and the way salaries work in the NFL I think that's actually debatable. (E.G. The "Who's better off, the 49ers with a 34 year old Boldin or the Seahawks with a Golden Tate on the Lions" dilemma. ).

Pete is running a college system in the pros and making it work. As long as the scouting and teaching/player development remain at a high level, they can still do very well, even after paying Russell.

 

[Popeyejones]

@Popeye. Our GM already has a roadmap for salaries. Maybe you should bow out of the conversation instead of continuing to make ignorant statements which belie your inability to make a real contribution to the thread.

Every GM of every NFL team has a road map for salaries. Where in the world did I imply otherwise? Pretending that I don't believe that GMs have road maps for salaries makes me ignorant? Sure, whatever want, man.

You said the Hawks are unequipped to handle the team's salaries because they all come during the players' primes. How is that not the equivalent statement that Schneider can't handle the load ( after he has already shown his ability to do so.)? Thus my comment about raodmaps directly refutes that statement. C'mon read what you wrote.

I think you might be reading what you want to read into my comment.

I said that given how the Hawks' talent is bunched in their primes and entering their primes* the salary cap presents some unique challenges for them, not that they don't have a plan to try to deal with, which would be a preposterous statement (if I had made it . I also didn't imply, or even remotely imply, that Schneider will do a bad job handling it.

What I DID imply is that given the situation, he might have a tougher job on his hands than other folks do, who are cursed (short term) and weirdly maybe blessed (long term) to have their talent more evenly distributed across different age brackets.


*Which is really a testament to Schneider and Donahue (RIP), it's not a knock on them AT ALL. (note: This DOES NOT mean that I think either of them are magical, they're just good. Unlike some Hawks fans I don't think banking on drafting a few near Pro-Bowlers and All Pros in the later rounds every year is very realistic, as we've even seen with the Hawks for the last two years).

 

[Cartire]

To be clear, neither of us said this is all he's going to get, we just both said that in an ideal world it's the price point we'd be comfortable with. (Remember, I've been questioning what it means for the 9ers long term for Kap to get LESS than this, that "less" being b/c I don't think he's as good).

Dude, I think youre stating the obviousness of a FO and fans. Of course the less he gets the better it is. I would love for RW to be happy with just $5 mill a year and we just keep building great teams. But I think most people here are trying to be realistic with their approach to "how much would you give him?"

I would only give him $1 mill if I could get away with it, but thats a stupid comment now, isnt it?

His WORTH is being discussed in reality, not in fantasy.

 

[HansGruber]

One of my biggest pet peeves is being quoted out of context. Next time you quote me, quote my entire statement rather than one part of it that changes the entire meaning.

Alright my apologies. I just cut it there because that's the point when the gif represented my feeling.

For context: Hans trotted out the sort-by-rings metric to downplay Peyton, even though it's clearly a deeply flawed metric that ignores just how much role variance plays in how many Super Bowls a great QB wins.

But I didn't mean to make it look like he believed Peyton to be a mediocre regular season QB.

For the record, what role did Peyton's 4th quarter INT to Tracy Porter play in the Colts Superbowl loss to the Saints?

Was that "variance?" Where does the blame go, if not on Peyton, for a pass that turned a late comeback drive into a two score deficit? I'll let you answer that one before I bring up the other 11 postseason-killing poor games by Peyton.

Of course, it's always everyone else's fault when Peyton has yet another terrible postseason game. The one time he won a superbowl, thanks to facing Rex Grossman and being bailed out by multiple INTs by his defense, it was ALL Peyton and just one more reason to crown him the best ever. Of course. And when he failed to put up any more than a single TD against Seattle, even with the best offense in NFL history, it was off course his defense's fault, as always. Of course.

Obviously, if Peyton just had the best offense and defense in the history of the NFL, THEN he could win a superbowl and it would prove that he is the best ever. Of course.

 

[Popeyejones]

To be clear, neither of us said this is all he's going to get, we just both said that in an ideal world it's the price point we'd be comfortable with. (Remember, I've been questioning what it means for the 9ers long term for Kap to get LESS than this, that "less" being b/c I don't think he's as good).

Dude, I think youre stating the obviousness of a FO and fans. Of course the less he gets the better it is. I would love for RW to be happy with just $5 mill a year and we just keep building great teams. But I think most people here are trying to be realistic with their approach to "how much would you give him?"

I would only give him $1 mill if I could get away with it, but thats a stupid comment now, isnt it?

His WORTH is being discussed in reality, not in fantasy.

TBF I feel like I've been getting pilloried for stating the obvious throughout this thread.

As for what you're saying, for sure. I think the only differences are that:

1) Tical is saying that if he's GM 15 million is his cap.

2) I'm saying that if I'm GM I have start thinking really hard at over 15 because over time I think it means that I have to change my strategy for winning that brought me my success in the first place. (people don't like this either

 

[hawk45]

Popeye how did the Hawks arrive at this situation with talent "bunched" in their prime? Oh yeah, because Pete and JS hit on an insane amount of picks on the defensive side of the ball for 3 years in the late rounds.

If they continue to hit at a high rate they can replace the old KJ Wright with the new KJ Wright, or the old Bobby Wagner with the new Bobby Wagner, or Walter Thurmond with Jeremy Lane/Michael Burley...hey wait they already did make that replacement! And they did it with Maxwell for Browner too!

So pretty much what you're saying is we're in trouble if our ability to identify the great scheme fits in later rounds diminishes, forcing us to pay everyone to keep a good team. Thanks for the bulletin Capt Obvious.

 

[HansGruber]

15 million annual cap hit for Wilson is laughably absurd.

That's less than Kaepernick, Romo, Ryan, Stafford, Bradford and a handful of other average quarterbacks who haven't won a thing in their careers.

That's not even a serious argument.

Pete and John have already stated that they've been planning around Wilson's contract since last year. According to Clayton, they're planning to make him one of the highest paid quarterbacks in the league. That puts you in the 23-24/yr average with around a 21/yr cap hit. That's the reality of life in 2015, whether you accept it or not.

The simple fact is that Russell Wilson is a special talent and a once-in-a-generation difference maker. To even discuss letting that walk out the door is preposterous beyond reason.

 

[Cartire]

15 million annual cap hit for Wilson is laughably absurd.

That's less than Kaepernick, Romo, Ryan, Stafford, Bradford and a handful of other average quarterbacks who haven't won a thing in their careers.

That's not even a serious argument.

Pete and John have already stated that they've been planning around Wilson's contract since last year. According to Clayton, they're planning to make him one of the highest paid quarterbacks in the league. That puts you in the 23-24/yr average with around a 21/yr cap hit. That's the reality of life in 2015, whether you accept it or not.

The simple fact is that Russell Wilson is a special talent and a once-in-a-generation difference maker. To even discuss letting that walk out the door is preposterous beyond reason.

I agree with your premises on Russell getting paid. But there is no quote from JS or PC about wanting to make Russell the highest paid QB. Thats just Clayons assumptions. Do you really think the FO is going out of there way to try to pay as much as possible? That would just be dumb and a horrible negotiating tactic. Regardless of reward or merit, they are still going to TRY to pay as little as possible. This isnt a D*** measuring contest for them. No points for the FO for paying the most. Just points for RW for getting the most.

 

[Mick063]

. At one point, rather than citing his selflessness, do we even out the equation and say that expecting him to not get fairly compensated for his work is just kinda selfish?

Absolutely not, I expect and Russell deserves to get paid. He knows that, his agent knows that, the NFLPA knows that.........and the Hawks know that.

But this isn't going to be a Flacco, Bradford or even a Stafford crippling contracts. I think it'll be more along the lines of the contract Rodgers just signed, nice and low and escalating towards the 22 million everyone's talking about.........with almost all of it guaranteed.

The most realistic post in the entire thread.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Can we lock this abortion ridiculous thread? :|

I'm pretty sure several of us are struggling not to escalate it in a bad way.