Is Russell Wilson worth 6 years $129m???

[Popeyejones]

Can we lock this abortion ridiculous thread? :|

I'm pretty sure several of us are struggling not to escalate it in a bad way.

What exactly has been said in this thread that makes it a challenge to maintain civility?

It's seems like the most contentious statement in the entire thread is Tical saying he thinks that although Wilson is gonna make 20+, he personally thinks Wilson is worth about 15 million per to the Hawks and more to other teams.

Is it that belief which makes it hard for you to not escalate, or something else?

(real question btw, not being a smart@$$)

 

[RolandDeschain]

No, really; I'm not going to continue in this one, lol.

 

[Popeyejones]

Popeye how did the Hawks arrive at this situation with talent "bunched" in their prime? Oh yeah, because Pete and JS hit on an insane amount of picks on the defensive side of the ball for 3 years in the late rounds.

If they continue to hit at a high rate they can replace the old KJ Wright with the new KJ Wright, or the old Bobby Wagner with the new Bobby Wagner, or Walter Thurmond with Jeremy Lane/Michael Burley...hey wait they already did make that replacement! And they did it with Maxwell for Browner too!

So pretty much what you're saying is we're in trouble if our ability to identify the great scheme fits in later rounds diminishes, forcing us to pay everyone to keep a good team. Thanks for the bulletin Capt Obvious.

For sure. See my statement above on being 'magical.'

If JS/PC can start consistently hitting on pro-bowlers in the later rounds as they had an obviously impressive streak of doing a few years ago, then the whole conversation is moot and I can go kick rocks.

I think history is a pretty good guide for us, though. If the plan is really for the GM to just be a magician, having a backup plan in place ain't an awful idea, at least?

 

[Popeyejones]

No, really; I'm not going to continue in this one, lol.

Fair enough.

 

[Russ Willstrong]

To be clear, neither of us said this is all he's going to get, we just both said that in an ideal world it's the price point we'd be comfortable with. (Remember, I've been questioning what it means for the 9ers long term for Kap to get LESS than this, that "less" being b/c I don't think he's as good).

Dude, I think youre stating the obviousness of a FO and fans. Of course the less he gets the better it is. I would love for RW to be happy with just $5 mill a year and we just keep building great teams. But I think most people here are trying to be realistic with their approach to "how much would you give him?"

I would only give him $1 mill if I could get away with it.....
.
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I'm saying that if I'm GM I have start thinking really hard at over 15 because over time I think it means that I have to change my strategy for winning that brought me my success in the first place. (people don't like this either

What your non-Seahawks mind doesn't realize is that retaining RW at any cost doesn't change the FO strategy. Their objective has been to scour the draft and free agency for unique players who TILT THE FIELD no matter their draft position or status (whether its a late round Sherman, mid round Wilson, first round trade Harvin). They identify their players strengths and work them into the team as they envision a champion team.

Just because they fell into a great situation with RW doesnt mean their plan for winning is to short change talented players. Our FO is NOT FRUGAL as proven in the Sherman, Harvin, Bennett and Flynn contracts. They know they aren't going to hit on most of their late draft picks therefore you don't let playmakers go just because you won a few crap shoots recently.
This discussion needs to be reality based because contracts are bound by cap numbers as well as NFLPA rules. Just as in real life you dont go to a Ferrari dealer and pretend we are buying a Ford escort. Yes they both get you from point A to point B but surely you cant win a race with your mindset.

 

[Popeyejones]

Pete is running a college system in the pros and making it work. As long as the scouting and teaching/player development remain at a high level, they can still do very well, even after paying Russell.

Eh, he's not, and he couldn't be if he wanted to.

1) As you know, the NFL draft system enforces parity, so unlike college, all the "blue chip" recruits go to the worst teams rather than the best teams. It's why the best college teams tend to stay at the top across multiple decades and the worst college teams tend to stay at the bottom across decades, whereas in the pros you get 30-50% turnover every single year.

2) Development plays a bigger role at the college level because we're talking largely untrained 18 year olds who mostly don't have a grasp of basic fundamentals yet. It's why you see a TON of position changes at the college level (the greatest teaching/development possible) and they're relatively rare at the pro level.

3) Scouting plays a bigger role at the college level because the pool of available players is MUCH larger, and the quality of information is MUCH lower.

4) In the college system you're reloading every position at least every four years. The Hawks have already made it quite clear they're not trying to do that (e.g. throwing new big money at 3/4s of the secondary, re-signing Bennett beyond his rental, the soon to be well-deserved Russell Wilson bank buster, etc.).

To his credit I think he entered the league with a very useful plug and play scheme that utilized players that at the time were being undervalued*, but he's not trying to run a college system in the pros IMO, nor should he be.


*See: previously believed to be over-sized CBs, relying on the run game when the position was being devalued, heavy situational subbing in and out of d-lineman to extract value out of players that were undervalued for being one-dimensional, etc.

 

[hawk45]

Popeye how did the Hawks arrive at this situation with talent "bunched" in their prime? Oh yeah, because Pete and JS hit on an insane amount of picks on the defensive side of the ball for 3 years in the late rounds.

If they continue to hit at a high rate they can replace the old KJ Wright with the new KJ Wright, or the old Bobby Wagner with the new Bobby Wagner, or Walter Thurmond with Jeremy Lane/Michael Burley...hey wait they already did make that replacement! And they did it with Maxwell for Browner too!

So pretty much what you're saying is we're in trouble if our ability to identify the great scheme fits in later rounds diminishes, forcing us to pay everyone to keep a good team. Thanks for the bulletin Capt Obvious.

For sure. See my statement above on being 'magical.'

If JS/PC can start consistently hitting on pro-bowlers in the later rounds as they had an obviously impressive streak of doing a few years ago, then the whole conversation is moot and I can go kick rocks.

I think history is a pretty good guide for us, though. If the plan is really for the GM to just be a magician, having a backup plan in place ain't an awful idea, at least?

I have high hopes that they can continue to draft pretty well in the defensive secondary. Or well enough to keep that unit solid, given that Kam, Earl, and Sherman already have long-term contracts in place.

I feel pretty good about the linebacking position as well. They seem to have a hard time missing at that spot.

Other positions I feel less sanguine about (offensive line *cough* *cough*).

Hey, at a certain level, we sort of have to hope for them retaining some of their draft magic, because there really is no backup plan for a franchise with draft difficulties. You end up with Tom Brady and the pips out there. At this point I'm seeing that they turned the entire roster over in a single year and built a Superbowl winner in 3 and I'm giving the benefit of the doubt that they can perform at some significant percentage of that awesomeness going forward.

As it concerns being uniquely cap-screwed or whatever, they did have a bunch of guys enter their prime at the same time, but they signed them to pretty solid deals? Bennett, Baldwin, Sherman, Thomas, Kam a few years ago? Russ is really the big one left. So I'm seeing evidence that the FO is very effective at retaining core talent even if they do all come due at the same time. Did I miss the part where they overpaid or where a key guy left?

 

[captSE]

Russell should be raking in the dough doing commercials like other superstars. With that in mind, I hope his agent is reasonable.
:3-1:

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

....You end up with Tom Brady and the Pips out there............

..singing there big hit "Midnight Train To Boston".



Good one 45!

 

[AgentDib]

It's certainly not a college system but it is very highly developmental.
- Lots of position changes as we bring in athletes we like (SPARQ) and then try to find a spot for them; Sweezy, Irvin, Carpenter, JJ.
- The opening coaching meeting of each year is so Carroll can remind his staff they are focused on development.
- Pete openly attributes most of the success with the secondary to their process teaching their system rather than talent evaluation.

I do agree with you that college system is the wrong term, but perhaps the largest difference between Carroll and our previous leadership is his focus on development. It's why we have been slow to call CMike a bust and why we aren't worried about a lack of touches for Richardson and Norwood.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Just an observation it seems our boy Popeye doth protest too much regarding the subject of this thread.

 

[HansGruber]

Just an observation it seems our boy Popeye doth protest too much regarding the subject of this thread.

Of course. The only hope SF has at being relevant again over the next decade of playoffs is that somehow the Seahawks will mess up and Wilson walks out of town.

Oh man was it ever awesome watching the collective butt-hurt of the SF fans when Wilson lit them up in the 4th quarter of the NFCCG. You could see the pain in their eyes. Knowing, deep down, that even if they are somehow able to make it back to the playoffs "next year", they'll always be Wilson's bitch. It's like being a Colts fan in the Peyton era, watching the Patriots re-sign Brady to a long-term deal. The pain runs deep for Niner fans.

And oh god does it ever feel good to be on the winning side of that scenario for once.

 

[Mick063]

San Francisco loaded up their roster (many players pre Harbaugh) from a multitude of high draft picks due to being a bad team for the previous decade. They also have benefitted from compensatory picks from free agents being signed away. In summary, they have had much more pre draft value with respect to draft picks relative to Seattle.

Carroll and Schneider built the Seahawks in four years with many of the main contributers being undrafted free agents or mid to late picks. After Earl Thomas, the short list of highly picked value players diminishes rapidly. In that time frame the highest player turnover in the league with over 250 transactions.

There is a difference here. The suck for high pick method as opposed to the revolving door method. The difference is that Carroll gives a quick look and moves on until he finds the gem he is looking for. In addition, he makes moves to get exactly what he wants with great value. For example, his vision allows him to spend two fourth round picks to acquire a supposed bust in Marshawn Lynch.

So when the time comes that Seattle must pay the piper, I expect more of the revolving door method as opposed to the suck for high draft pick method. This is how the salary cap is somewhat mitigated. The ability to glean specific talent for specific roles and coaching them up to speed quickly, and doing it at bargain basement prices. Further, the compensatory picks will start rolling in, and as opposed to trading down for extra picks, as they commonly do, the surplus of picks will be there, allowing the team an option to move up if they so desire. Decent compensatory picks for undrafted players like Kearse or late round picks like Maxwell. In other words, Seattle will realize great benefit from being a farm team specializing in player development.

I expect there will ups and downs, but knowing how this staff works, the bottom will not be cellar dweller. More like average for a year or two then another meteoric rise. The whole time, Wilson in his prime with unknown players coming from nowhere and playing at a high level. Such is the track record for this staff.

The only way I see this cycle ending is Pete retiring or Schneider being hired by Green Bay, perhaps both happening simultaneously, and perhaps not all that far away. They will, however, leave a good team for the successor and the best owner in franchise history will probably make another great hire. And of course, the 12's will remain loud providing a tough road trip for anyone.

 

[nanomoz]

Stan Gelbaugh, Dan McGwire, Kelly Stoufer, John Friesz, Rick Mirer, Glen Foley, Charlie Frye, Trent Dilfer . . .

I'd say he's worth a bit more. It will require continuing to find gems in mid to late rounds of the draft, but I'd rather take that risk than risk suffering through another stint of QB mediocrity (or worse).

 

[hawk45]

Re-reading this thread, just chuckling at the absurdity of 15 mil being the cutoff point to pay our franchise quarterback. Fans of other teams (and this team) are collectively spitting out their beer at that notion.

You can get a QB to replace 200 yards of passing offense that we've so far required from Russ, yes. But what you cannot get is QBs who can also rush for 100 yards if necessary when nothing else is working. Also, most QBs who throw for 2 hunny are utterly incapable of making the clutch play (vs. the Saints in the playoffs, vs SF in the NFCC game, vs the countless other teams Russ has made the clutch play).

Look, Alex Smith would be good for the playoffs with this team, no doubt. But without the clutch plays with feet or arm, you don't get rings.

This FO knows that with Russ we have a shot at multiple rings, whether that means we lose a KJ, Wagner, Miller, etc. Heck with Russ you toss a Kearse or a Lockette in there for zero money and they produce.

For that fact, and the fact that you can suck at pass pro with Russ back there, you sign him for 22-24 no problem, and if it gets higher you franchise him and end up signing him for 22-24 per anyhow, or more, because after 1 year that'll be what the Alex Smiths and Andy Daltons of the world are getting anyhow.

The clutch play is the difference between Lombardi and the window closing, as the 49ers can attest. If Kap made a couple of key decisions differently in the biggest moments, he'd be paid that much as well. He's not, because that kind of performance isn't something that you can find on any street corner.

 

[sc85sis]

Pete is running a college system in the pros and making it work. As long as the scouting and teaching/player development remain at a high level, they can still do very well, even after paying Russell.

Eh, he's not, and he couldn't be if he wanted to.

1) As you know, the NFL draft system enforces parity, so unlike college, all the "blue chip" recruits go to the worst teams rather than the best teams. It's why the best college teams tend to stay at the top across multiple decades and the worst college teams tend to stay at the bottom across decades, whereas in the pros you get 30-50% turnover every single year.

2) Development plays a bigger role at the college level because we're talking largely untrained 18 year olds who mostly don't have a grasp of basic fundamentals yet. It's why you see a TON of position changes at the college level (the greatest teaching/development possible) and they're relatively rare at the pro level.

3) Scouting plays a bigger role at the college level because the pool of available players is MUCH larger, and the quality of information is MUCH lower.

4) In the college system you're reloading every position at least every four years. The Hawks have already made it quite clear they're not trying to do that (e.g. throwing new big money at 3/4s of the secondary, re-signing Bennett beyond his rental, the soon to be well-deserved Russell Wilson bank buster, etc.).

To his credit I think he entered the league with a very useful plug and play scheme that utilized players that at the time were being undervalued*, but he's not trying to run a college system in the pros IMO, nor should he be.


*See: previously believed to be over-sized CBs, relying on the run game when the position was being devalued, heavy situational subbing in and out of d-lineman to extract value out of players that were undervalued for being one-dimensional, etc.

He is in the sense that he will probably have a fair amount of player churn on a three to five year cycle. I expect this team to continue to skew younger than much of the league. The staff is well known for being a teaching group. They can sign a core group to second contracts while jettisoning others in favor of younger, cheaper replacements. They will naturally have to make tough decisions, and they'll miss on some guys. But Pete, John and the scouts have shown they each have an eye for talent, and the willingness to find it anywhere.

 

[Seahawk Sailor]

Wilson's salary may be less than a million right now, but he's not exactly penniless. The endorsement gigs he has (and will continue to get even more of) go a long way toward that financial stability athletes need with such short careers. He'll get his money, but I doubt he'll feel the need to break the bank with a contract to secure his future. And that's what will get him a modestly competitive contract that will pay him what he's worth, but not break the team doing so.

http://www.king5.com/story/sports/n...ilson-endorsement-earning-potential/17027005/

 

[-The Glove-]

Wilson's salary may be less than a million right now, but he's not exactly penniless. The endorsement gigs he has (and will continue to get even more of) go a long way toward that financial stability athletes need with such short careers. He'll get his money, but I doubt he'll feel the need to break the bank with a contract to secure his future. And that's what will get him a modestly competitive contract that will pay him what he's worth, but not break the team doing so.

http://www.king5.com/story/sports/n...ilson-endorsement-earning-potential/17027005/

 

[NFSeahawks]

Mods lock this thread my head hurts.