Justin Smith Retiring...

[Clayfighter]

To help us mourn the ending of Justin Smith's career a minutes silence will be held....


.... of course as it was Justin Smith no flag was thrown.

I see what you did there! :lol:

 

[SF49r]

One of my all-time favorite 49ers, gonna be sad to see him gone.

Some good banter between Lynch and Smith:

[youtube]4ryJCoyKmA4[/youtube]

^
lol was just about to post this video

 

[Popeyejones]

Glad to see I am not alone in my feelings that Justin Smith was a mildly overrated (but good) component of the 49ers defense.

I think what happened is that he was really an amazing player three or four years ago (and definitely in the conversation for the best 3-4 defensive end after Watt in the NFL), but had really slowed down in the last two years due to age an injury (on retiring he even said that he's always played right end, and that after years of banging the whole left side of his body is basically shot).

I do think in the last two years he's absolutely benefited from his reputation, although he was still a good player.

 

[Popeyejones]

How many sacks does Alldumb have without Justin holding for him, and how does that compare to when JS is playing.

One of the things that I've always found kind of weird about this argument is that it attributes some pretty simple scheming to the talent of Justin Smith.

There's nothing really special from a talent perspective about smashing the three gap and sometime hooking the LG's inside arm on a stunt. That's just scheme, and a lot of teams do that.

Basically if you wanna say doing that by doing that some of Aldon's sack totals comes from DEFINITELY pushing the boundaries of the rules I wouldn't disagree with that, but there's nothing really that special about the presence of Justin Smith in that case.

Instead, you'd want to look at all of Aldon's OTHER sacks not on those twists and look for the effect of having Justin Smith demand the attention of the HB in pass-pro who is taught to handle pressure from the inside-out.

In the nickle set when Justin Smith could get pressure (or even substantial push back) right away up the middle the RB was forced to take a step forward, sometimes leaving Aldon in a one-on-one matchup to get to the QB. The stunt has nothing to do with that.

 

[Popeyejones]

Excited to see those first 3 get a shot in particular, but in no way to I expect them to replicate Justin.

So far it sounds like what they're doing is not asking any one player to try to replace Smith, but instead having Dial try to replace Smith's ability to hold the point of attack and shed in the base defense, while asking Tank to replace Smith's ability as a pass rusher in the nickle.

I think it's definitely the right strategy to have these guys specializing, as one of the things that made Smith so great in his prime was how multiple he was.

Smith had slowed down too, though.

TBH I think the only area where they're really going to feel the loss of Smith next year* is his ability to diagnose and scrape down the line and stop plays from the back side of the formation. That's what I'll always remember him for, and where he was most transcendent IMO. I like Dial as a player, but he simply just can't replace that.

*A little OT, but one of the big problems with trying to evaluate the 9ers this year is there's just been way to much turnover to accurately assign credit for success and blame for failure. You've got a lot of new starters playing for new coordinators in new schemes. If things aren't working is it the scheme, the playcalling, the players themselves, or some combination of two or all three of these things, and in what proportion? Unless someone is invested in spending a ton of time in the All 22 every week it's going to take most of the season to even START to really untangle those things.

 

[Marvin49]

Excited to see those first 3 get a shot in particular, but in no way to I expect them to replicate Justin.

So far it sounds like what they're doing is not asking any one player to try to replace Smith, but instead having Dial try to replace Smith's ability to hold the point of attack and shed in the base defense, while asking Tank to replace Smith's ability as a pass rusher in the nickle.

I think it's definitely the right strategy to have these guys specializing, as one of the things that made Smith so great in his prime was how multiple he was.

Smith had slowed down too, though.

TBH I think the only area where they're really going to feel the loss of Smith next year* is his ability to diagnose and scrape down the line and stop plays from the back side of the formation. That's what I'll always remember him for, and where he was most transcendent IMO. I like Dial as a player, but he simply just can't replace that.

*A little OT, but one of the big problems with trying to evaluate the 9ers this year is there's just been way to much turnover to accurately assign credit for success and blame for failure. You've got a lot of new starters playing for new coordinators in new schemes. If things aren't working is it the scheme, the playcalling, the players themselves, or some combination of two or all three of these things, and in what proportion? Unless someone is invested in spending a ton of time in the All 22 every week it's going to take most of the season to even START to really untangle those things.

Niners lose Justin? They have Dial, Tank, and Armstead. Lose Gore? They have Hyde, Hunter, Davis, and Bush. Lose Crab? They have Torrey Smith, Ellington, Patton, and Smelter. Lose Iupati? They have Marcus Martin and Brandon Thomas. Lose Culliver and Cox? They have Brock, Johnson, Ward, Reaser and Acker.

Outside of ILB (where they HAD Borland to replace Willis) they weren't surprised by any of these departures and have been preparing for them for a few years now.

Does that mean tho that the new guy will be the same as the old? Of course not. None of them will be. They'll be different players. Maybe that's OK. Tank for example I think has a chance to be a better pass rusher than Justin ever was. He doesn't have the motor or power that Justin did, but that's OK. He can be a good but different player. He's got a knack for getting after the QB.

Same with Hyde. Hyde doesn't as yet have the vision or patience that Gore did, but he's got more size, quickness, and speed than Gore had ever had as a pro (sometimes wonder how good he'd have been if he hadn't torn both ACLs in college).

As I've said many times...this year more than any other I have no idea what to expect. 6-10? 10-6? Both IMO equally likely. I'll just look forward to seeing how it all plays out with no real expectations this year.

 

[Marvin49]

Glad to see I am not alone in my feelings that Justin Smith was a mildly overrated (but good) component of the 49ers defense.

I think what happened is that he was really an amazing player three or four years ago (and definitely in the conversation for the best 3-4 defensive end after Watt in the NFL), but had really slowed down in the last two years due to age an injury (on retiring he even said that he's always played right end, and that after years of banging the whole left side of his body is basically shot).

I do think in the last two years he's absolutely benefited from his reputation, although he was still a good player.

To support that point...


Jeff Deeney @PFF_Jeff
· May 18

Justin Smith's PFF grades in SF
2008: + 6.7
2009: +33.5*
2010: +36.5*
2011: +39.2*
2012: +14.4
2013: +5.9
2014: +16.6

* = top 3-4 DE
#49ers

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^^ Oh wow. It's always nice to have your "eye test" confirmed with some actual numbers.

And totally agreed with the 6-10/10-6 thing.

Purely as a fan of the game, it's why I'm a little more excited pre-season this year than I usually am (SO MANY MORE THINGS to try to get a read on) and a little less excited about the regular season than I have been as of late (so many new moving parts that could fail and break everything else).

 

[Vetamur]

Some good banter between Lynch and Smith:

[youtube]4ryJCoyKmA4[/youtube]

way off topic..but .. didnt realize Lynch could throw. We need to use that twice or so this upcoming season!

Awesome clip. I can only assume no one else watched it because there isn't a single comment about Lynch throwing a TD not to mention the Cowboy haters could have used the fact it was Lynch's 1st 100 yard game and that was going against Justin.

I'm one that appreciates the old guard. The guys who led by example on every single play as well as in the locker room. D-Coord's had to factor Justin in because if they didn't he would make them look stupid. Did he get away with a little extra grabbing? Sure but he could do that because he was strong enough to keep his hands inside. He was elite at grabbing a chest plate or lower straps of the pads without getting his arms extended and smart enough to not extend and grab but rather extend and push if he had to make the choice.

I have felt for a while that the 9ers defense was anchored by Cowboy. He set the tone and the example. You can replace Ray Mac but Justin isn't just a game changer he is a defense changer and someone as a football fan, I hold in the highest regard. Another 9er I feel similar about is Gore but if I was choosing one of them in their prime I would choose Cowboy in a second and not even give it a second thought.

I wrote a post specifically about Lynch throwing the ball....

 

[Hawks46]

Some good banter between Lynch and Smith:

[youtube]4ryJCoyKmA4[/youtube]

way off topic..but .. didnt realize Lynch could throw. We need to use that twice or so this upcoming season!

Beat me to it, I was like "holy sh**! someone needs to send that tape to Bevell !" Imagine....Beast Mode throwing back to Wilson.

 

[Hawks46]

I will miss watching this guy dismantle the Cards and Rams OL's, but I won't be missing watching him beat up our continually under reconstruction OL.

Was a great player. Just more for the 49ers to over come this offseason, although it's not much of a surprise.

Who they got waiting to take his spot Marvin? He any good ?

They have a number of bodies to fill that spot, but a lot of question marks. I like all the guys they are gonna give a chance, but most of them need to prove themselves and all will be very different players than Justin.

1) Tank Carradine (2nd round, 2013): Played 4-3 end at Florida State AND tore his ACL so came into the league changing positions and injured. As Tomsula put it, he had to go from rushing like a Ferrari off the edge to playing in a phone booth. Also still had trouble with the knee as a rookie so had second procedure.

Started to play well late in the season, but still largely a ?.


2) Quinton DIal (5th round, 2013): Was a 3-4 end in college and not much of a pass rusher. BIG and powerful. Played well last year in relief and played DT as well when both Williams and Dorsey were out. Tomsula said recently though that he really viewed him as a 3-4 end.


3) Arik Armstead (1st round, 2015): We all know who he is...6'7" RAW ex- basketball player. Actually played the position at Oregon so might transition faster than some think, but certainly needs work and refinement.


4) Darnell Dockett (Free Agent 2015): Not the player he once was, never a great run defender, and coming off an ACL. Still, nice vet presence but not close to the player Justin was.


There are a few others...Ramsey, Jerod-Eddie, etc, but those are probably the 4 with the biggest role in playing this year.

Dorsey might get a shot to move out there as well.

Excited to see those first 3 get a shot in particular, but in no way to I expect them to replicate Justin. Lots of aging players out and lots of chances for young players this year. We'll see how well Baalke has stockpiled the last three years.

Good break down, thanks. I like how you're not a total homer about it. I was thinking they'd slide Dorsey over; he played pretty well last season and seemed to get good penetration. Not the player he was supposed to be coming out of college, but much better than anything I saw at KC.

 

[Hawks46]

Yup he holds peaches. Just as much as Sherman. Lol they all do it.

Ah, the old "lol everyone does it!' defense. Smith was a good not great d-lineman. Nothing more.

Sorry peaches. If you ever get to talk to your head coach or manager (never will happen) ask them if they would want a healthy cowboy. I think their answer would be hell ya. I would take a healthy Justin over anyone on your D line anyday.

Actually I'd take Michael Bennett over Smith last year. Even if he was healthy, Smith didn't show the explosion he'd had in previous years. He was still tough against the run, but I think losing that step caused him to start to take more punishment than he'd been used to taking. Injuries pile up and it's time to retire.

Bennett's still in his prime, and can play on the outside or the inside equally well, and at a higher level than we saw from Smith at any time last year.

But Smith in his prime ? Hell yes I'd take him.

 

[Popeyejones]

Yup he holds peaches. Just as much as Sherman. Lol they all do it.

Ah, the old "lol everyone does it!' defense. Smith was a good not great d-lineman. Nothing more.

Sorry peaches. If you ever get to talk to your head coach or manager (never will happen) ask them if they would want a healthy cowboy. I think their answer would be hell ya. I would take a healthy Justin over anyone on your D line anyday.

Actually I'd take Michael Bennett over Smith last year.

All things being equal, yeah, I'd agree with that.

I think you and rlkats are talking past each other a bit though, as he posed a hypothetical ("a HEALTHY Justin", which didn't actually exist).

Without the insertion of "healthy" or "old" he might even agree with you about last year too? I dunno.

 

[Marvin49]

I will miss watching this guy dismantle the Cards and Rams OL's, but I won't be missing watching him beat up our continually under reconstruction OL.

Was a great player. Just more for the 49ers to over come this offseason, although it's not much of a surprise.

Who they got waiting to take his spot Marvin? He any good ?

They have a number of bodies to fill that spot, but a lot of question marks. I like all the guys they are gonna give a chance, but most of them need to prove themselves and all will be very different players than Justin.

1) Tank Carradine (2nd round, 2013): Played 4-3 end at Florida State AND tore his ACL so came into the league changing positions and injured. As Tomsula put it, he had to go from rushing like a Ferrari off the edge to playing in a phone booth. Also still had trouble with the knee as a rookie so had second procedure.

Started to play well late in the season, but still largely a ?.


2) Quinton DIal (5th round, 2013): Was a 3-4 end in college and not much of a pass rusher. BIG and powerful. Played well last year in relief and played DT as well when both Williams and Dorsey were out. Tomsula said recently though that he really viewed him as a 3-4 end.


3) Arik Armstead (1st round, 2015): We all know who he is...6'7" RAW ex- basketball player. Actually played the position at Oregon so might transition faster than some think, but certainly needs work and refinement.


4) Darnell Dockett (Free Agent 2015): Not the player he once was, never a great run defender, and coming off an ACL. Still, nice vet presence but not close to the player Justin was.


There are a few others...Ramsey, Jerod-Eddie, etc, but those are probably the 4 with the biggest role in playing this year.

Dorsey might get a shot to move out there as well.

Excited to see those first 3 get a shot in particular, but in no way to I expect them to replicate Justin. Lots of aging players out and lots of chances for young players this year. We'll see how well Baalke has stockpiled the last three years.

Good break down, thanks. I like how you're not a total homer about it. I was thinking they'd slide Dorsey over; he played pretty well last season and seemed to get good penetration. Not the player he was supposed to be coming out of college, but much better than anything I saw at KC.

Dorsey moving over is definitely a possibility. If he does play there you'd likely see Tank come in as a 3rd down guy and I'd expect much more rotation than when Justin was in there.

The thing with Dorsey tho is that if you move him over to DE it leaves you a bit thin at DT. Ian Williams has been really good at DT when he can stay healthy...but that's the rub. He hasn't stayed healthy.

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^^Part of it is that they the don't spend much time in the base defense anyway. so it's not like they need to put dorsey in at NT to spell Williams, assuming Williams is healthy.

My guess is they'll have Dorsey at end and slot him over to NT in base while bumping Tank up to base DE in the case of another Williams injury.

All that said, I'd loooooooooooove for Tank to beat out dorsey as a base end and have him be first string in both base and nickle with dorsey subbing in more regularly than they did with J. Smith in the past. Tank has to earn that, though.

As for Dorsey. I think he's a very good player that just ended up being overrated because he's not the amazing player he was drafted to be.

Put another way, on the field, I think the transition from McDonald to Dorsey is basically a wash (and yeah, I know I'm flip flopping DE sides in this post).

 

[Marvin49]

^^^^Part of it is that they the don't spend much time in the base defense anyway. so it's not like they need to put dorsey in at NT to spell Williams, assuming Williams is healthy.

My guess is they'll have Dorsey at end and slot him over to NT in base while bumping Tank up to base DE in the case of another Williams injury.

All that said, I'd loooooooooooove for Tank to beat out dorsey as a base end and have him be first string in both base and nickle with dorsey subbing in more regularly than they did with J. Smith in the past. Tank has to earn that, though.

As for Dorsey. I think he's a very good player that just ended up being overrated because he's not the amazing player he was drafted to be.

Put another way, on the field, I think the transition from McDonald to Dorsey is basically a wash (and yeah, I know I'm flip flopping DE sides in this post).

Dorsey was drafted with peeps thinkin' he was the next Warren Sapp. He's not. Not close either.

That's OK though. All he needs to do is plug up running lanes and eat up blockers to let the LBs run.

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^^ Agreed.

Just saw in my above post that I accidentally wrote that Dorsey ended up being "overrated."

I meant the opposite. I think he's underrated because he was, as you say, supposed to be the next Warren Sapp and ended up just being a good player. :th2thumbs:

 

[canfan]

14 years - at that position - at that level! You don't get to see guys like that often. I wish him the best in retirement and I am glad we don't have to face him twice a year anymore! Enjoy your down time Justin....you have earned it.

 

[Popeyejones]

Dorsey moving over is definitely a possibility. If he does play there you'd likely see Tank come in as a 3rd down guy and I'd expect much more rotation than when Justin was in there.

The thing with Dorsey tho is that if you move him over to DE it leaves you a bit thin at DT. Ian Williams has been really good at DT when he can stay healthy...but that's the rub. He hasn't stayed healthy.

Not sure how meaningful of a data point it is, but did you see the reports from the first accessible OTA yesterday?

Dorsey was off with the training staff, and the starting base d-line was TJE -- Williams -- Dial.

Hmmm. No Tank on base even as 2nd string.

I think all signs point to them thinking of Tank as a rotational player rather than an every down starter, which is kinda disappointing.

The only other thing I think it could mean -- and Baalke has so much history with doing this that I seriously think it's possible -- is the following:

Because Tank's redshirt year didn't count as a redshirt year (b/c he was on the active roster for awhile) they can renegotiate with him after this season. MAYBE what's happening is the same thing that happened with Williams, Kilgore, Brock, and Boone, and Baalke wants to keep tank as a rotational backup until they can renegotiate a below market deal with him this off-season before inserting him as a starter. Honestly, if this is what's going on it wouldn't surprise me at all. It's one of those strategically excellent but morally sh!tty things that Baalke should really be known for at this point.* :lol:

*(the other major one being after the Chiefs poached Cooper the propensity for young bubble guys to get injured at the very end of the pre-season and end up on IR for the year, which I think any honest 9ers fan knows is total BS).