Long, Winded Post: My Thoughts On Offense

[Pandion Haliaetus]

(Warning, holy freakin cannolis, I didn't realize how much I wrote, and all via smart phone)


First off, there has been 8 Play-Off Games, 16 Scores.

Team (Opponent): Points Scored (W/L, 1st Half Points - 2nd Half Points)
---------2 to 10 points ---------
Bengals (vs SD): 10 points (L, 10-0)
Panthers (vs SF): 10 points (L, 10-0)

---------11 to 20 points --------
Saints (vs SEA): 15 points (L, 0-15)
Chargers (vs DEN): 17 points(L, 0-17)
Packers (vs SF): 20 points (L, 10-10)

----------21 to 29 points--------
Colts (vs NE): 22 points (L, 12-10)
49ers (vs GB): 23 points (W, 13-10)
Seahawks (vs NO): 23 points (W, 16-7)
49ers (vs CAR): 23 points (W, 13-10)
Broncos (vs SD): 24 points (W, 14-10)
Eagles (vs NO): 24 points (L, 7-17)
Saints (vs PHI): 26 Points (W, 6-20)
Chargers (vs CIN): 27 Points (7-20)

-----------30+ points ----------
Patriots (vs IND): 43 points (W, 21-22)
Chiefs (vs IND): 44 points (L, 31-13)
Colts (vs KC): 45 points (W, 10-35)

8 teams scored between 22-27 points. 3 of those teams are in the final 4 and have scored 23, 23, 23, and 24 points. Only 3 teams scored above 30+ points, only 1 is in the final 4, two were against the same defense, a Colts D that gave up 87 points. And a Chiefs D that lost DBs to injury then got LUCKED UP in the 2nd Half.

Unfortunately, there is a fine line as all the teams that have scored less than 23 points have all LOST.

Coincidentally, Seahawks and Broncos had similar games. Seahawks were up 16-0 on the Saints after 3 QTRs. Broncos were up 17-0 on the Chargers after 3. Both teams let their running games take over in the 2nd half. Both teams went with a prevent Defense in the 4th, Saints scored 15. SD scored 17. BUT both Denver and Seattle would answer back with TDs that would put both games just out of reach.

San Diego was statistically average D in 2013 but it did hold the Broncos to 20 in Dec: #11 in Points Allowed, #28 Pass Defense, #12 Rush Defense, 24th in Sack/Sack%.

New Orleans was statistically one of the best in 2013 (in some categories): #4 in Points Allowed, #2 in Pass Defense, #19 in Rush Defense, 4th in Sacks/Sack%.

Coincidentally, both Chargers and Saints D were similar in Rush D (both ranked bottom in the league with 4.6 Y/A, SD gave up 14 Rush TDs to NO's 11. Plus, both ranked in the bottom 4th in the league in Turnover D, NO's had 19 TO to SD's 17.

Is anybody talking about the inept Broncos Offense, the best in league history for scoring only 24 points?

Moving on, the Saints were one of two teams that blew out the Panthers, they also beat the 49ers, Cards, and Eagles. They barely lost to Patriots and Panthers @ Car via last minute heroics. Bottom-line: They are a great team with Championship calibur talent and a Superbowl winning coach.

Remember the narrative in the rematch of Seahawks vs Saints. Saints were expected to be better, they been here before, its harder in the 2nd match-up, its tougher in the Play-Offs, Payton was pulling out ALL the stops in preparation. Brees is too elite to be shutdown twice, he'll figure us out. Added all together meant a closer battle between two great teams.

What Happened?

In The First Game, Dec 2nd: The Seahawks Offense scored 27 points of 34 total. 2 TDs + 2 FGs in the 1st Half AND a TD in the 2nd Half. Seahawks kept NO to 7 points but the Saints gave up pretty much after the Seahawks scored their last TD in the 3rd QTR.

In The Second Game, Jan 11th: The Seahawks Offense scored 23 points. 1 TD + 3 FGs in the 1st Half AND a TD in the 2nd Half. Seahawks D kept NO scoreless for 3 QTRs, but being the Play-Offs, the Saints only got more and more desperate to fight their way back into the game.

The Difference between the perception of Offense from the 1st game to the 2nd game, was the Seahawks received a huge momentum play off a Defensive TD in the first game and Percy Harvin hanging on to a catch for a TD which would have gave the Jan 11th Seahawks the same Offensive Point output as the Dec 2 game of 27 points.

That 4 point differential is also the difference between the luck that Kellen Davis deflecting that pass to anywhere but straight to Derrick Coleman off the ricochet.

You can argue yardage and style but points is what's important in winning.

In the 1st Game: The Saints completely chose to shutdown Lynch and Wilson took advantage.

In the 2nd Game: The Saints completely chose to shutdown Wilson. They spied the read option, their DEs contained the roll-out offense, and their DBs were not only aggressive but were seemingly trying to take the Seahawks WRs out of the game with Dirty hits. Not just Harvin, but Tate and Baldwin took big shots too.

So NO's Defensive focus on Wilson + Poor Throwing Conditions (heavy rain, 20 mph winds) + Saints DBs headhunting Seahawks play-making WRs + a conservative, rather dull, mistake-free approach to the 2nd Half Offense led to Wilson looking much worse than he did. He was 7 of 9 before the half, but in the 2nd half, he came out extra cautious, and tried to only place the ball where the receiver could make a play on it which led to being 2 for 9 in the 2nd half. But that Defensive strategy by the Saints allowed Marshawn Lynch to absolutely dominate them compared to the first game.

Side Note: I don't understand why people call Wilson a "GAME MANAGER", don't get me wrong he's a solid player in that approach, but when he's allowed to improvise in more complex offensive schemes, he can be incredibly dangerous. Its just our offensive philosophy is cemented through predictability and control where safe > dangerous.

Conclusively, I just don't understand why so many people are tormented by the offensive output vs the Saints JAN 11 Seahawks when not only were the Saints going to be a presuambly tougher matchup but when the Dec 2 Seahawks offense , that many including myself point to as the pinnacle of our Offensive year, only scored 27 points. 4 more points than the Jan 11 offense that played in poor weather conditions for passing and again the presumably tougher match-up the 2nd time around.

I can't stress that enough... 4 freakin points... again that's Harvin hanging on to a TD OR the Seahawks having to settle for a FG because they didn't get the lucky bounce that ricocheted off Kellen Davis hand's into Derrick Coleman's for the TD.

That is the prime difference between the applauded Dec 2nd Offense and outrageously criticized Jan 11 Offense. Yet, the groupthink census is the offense is in crumbles and the sky is continuing to fall around it.

I don't know what's wrong with some of you people who are being so pessimistic, maybe you're all just insufferable realists "just telling it like it is". I'm not going to tell you how to feel, that's a pointless argument, but one good remedy to calm your qualm is possibly to lower your expectations. While realizing the offensive success is built through strategy over style. And that process in whole with the team has been about 75% successful in the last 43 games dating back to mid-season 2011.

That process has took us back to the NFC CG for the first time in 8 years since 2005-6, and the Seahawks had play-off teams in '06, '07, '10, and '12 that didn't make it as far with seemingly more capable offenses compared to the one were running now. I suggest to relax a little, and just let the team decide the outcome and what they can or can't do against the 49ers.

 

[Heisenberg]

Seattle's lynch pin is defense. It all starts and ends with their defense. If you can build a quick lead on seattle and soften up the defense a little, they are in big trouble. Especially with playoff ball vs a team defense like the 49ers, you have to 'bring it'. I dont think there will be many points scored come sunday. This would normally be a detriment to the 49ers as the seattle D keeps them in check at home but i have a feeling the 49ers will be able to hold seattle's offense in check his time around. Nobody's going to be too worried about Wilson's 142 last time they played in seattle, so it's on Lynch to have a good game to help open up the pass game. It can go either way but this will be a hard fought smash mouth defensive game.

 

[themunn]

Seattle's lynch pin is defense. It all starts and ends with their defense. If you can build a quick lead on seattle and soften up the defense a little, they are in big trouble.

Well, given that happened once all season (Tampa Bay) and the defense then shut up shop and the Seahawks won the game, this is wishful thinking.
Unless you're thinking of the Washington and Atlanta games last year which Seattle won and had the lead with 20 seconds to go respectively last year?
Or the New England game which is the only other game in the last 2 years we've been behind by 13 points or more, which we also won?

 

[Marlin Man]

Can expound all you want with stats, all we have to do to win the game is play our NORMAL defense and on offense have RW tuck the damn ball and run like he USED TO DO!!!!!

 

[djb28]

I always use a smart pho e and (see) I can't do that. No patience. That and fat thumbs. Nice post.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

Great use of your phone PH. One of your better posts.

 

[tacomahawk]

Great post!!! So refreshing compared to the nauseating, oh noos we could lose cause....posts.

 

[pmedic920]

I needed a lil boost of confidence. This hit the spot. Thanks Pal.

 

[sam1313]

Awesome, awesome post. Please post more often!!!

Thanks!

 

[CANHawk]

Kudos! Great post. My thoughts exactly...

 

[Seeker]

great post, yeah I think people don't understand how important that weather was in this game. that was not regular seattle "steady but passive aggressive rain" it was a downpour

 

[CANHawk]

great post, yeah I think people don't understand how important that weather was in this game. that was not regular seattle "steady but passive aggressive rain" it was a downpour

And it was blowing like hell at times too. I swear, fantasy football is making football fans painfully stupid. You can't compare what happened in Carolina on Sunday to what happened in Seattle on Saturday. Yes, the stats that Carolina put up were not good enough to beat San Fran, but the fact that the stats we put up against New Orleans are not equal to what Carolina did does not automatically mean that we're going to lose to San Fran. Our game had it's own set of extenuating circumstances that are not equal to the extenuating circumstances that existed in Carolina. Totally different games! The only stat that matters is points on the board and after 60 minures are up on Sunday, I guarantee we'll have more of those.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I never get worried by the stats, it's the little stuff I worry about.

- too many three and outs
- having a 4-15 day on 3rd down conversions
- Russell being inaccurate on simple slants

If we win 23-18 and Russell only has 150 yards, but his completion percentage is 65% and we converted on 8-12 first downs? I'm cool with that, because it means we sustained drives. But that's not what's been going on, so that's why I'm a little nervous about our passing game right now.

 

[sutz]

PH, I often dread clicking on one of your posts. Always tempted to TLR them. :laugh:

I just look back on the year and consider that the Hawks have won games in almost every conceivable way. We've blown out good teams, we've overcome large half time deficits, we've ground out close games in sloppy conditions. That's what gives me the confidence I feel. Regardless of situations or conditions, this team finds ways to win games. Perhaps that's too amorphous and touchy-feely for some, but it's what I've got.

Much of the criticism I'm reading strikes me as "Be reasonable, do it MY way!" whining by people dissatisfied with how we won. Any statement that starts with "If we play that way next time-sometime in the future-in the Super Bowl...." is speculation. All the comments about how poorly we've played all year are duly noted (not necessarily agreed with, though ). We're 14-3 and set to play in the NFCCG. Deal with it. For me, worrying about how we're going to play next week detracts from my ability to enjoy the latest win.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

Can expound all you want with stats, all we have to do to win the game is play our NORMAL defense and on offense have RW tuck the damn ball and run like he USED TO DO!!!!!

In the reality of the post season, stats do really mean nothing as each week you move forward its pretty much a brand new season and both teams are 0-0 again. So it doesn't matter to me if Russell Wilson has 100 yards or 300 yards as long as he isn't having a negative impact in the turnover department.

I'm happy with any outcome of a game if it means a Seahawks win. Nail-biter, blowout, or luck, its all the same in the end.

And I'll still have my Seahawks pride, even if we lose, on Sunday or in the Superbowl.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

I never get worried by the stats, it's the little stuff I worry about.

- too many three and outs
- having a 4-15 day on 3rd down conversions
- Russell being inaccurate on simple slants

If we win 23-18 and Russell only has 150 yards, but his completion percentage is 65% and we converted on 8-12 first downs? I'm cool with that, because it means we sustained drives. But that's not what's been going on, so that's why I'm a little nervous about our passing game right now.

This is understandable and very true but a team doesn't always win or lose by its efficiency in Passing Offense.

Lynch is the best RB left in the Play-Offs.

The O-Line looks to be gelling a little better, and the Seahawks took a big risk in starting a rookie over McQ/Carpenter... and I think they found a legit player. I particularly believe Okung loves Bowie (both being former OSU Cowboys) next to him and they'll forge a dominant relationship.

Seahawks have one of the greatest passing defenses ever assembled with an active front 7 that not only has a great pass-rush and speedy linebackers, they can demolish the run at an above average rate, and completely obliterate it when our bigs are making the plays in the backfield.

Our defense not only harasses QBs better than any team left in the Play-Offs and more often than not can completely shut down WRs on the outside, they have fared very well against receiving RBs and TEs.

As long as our Special Teams can protect the ball, we have two of the best legs kicking and punting for our team. We have a stud punt returner in Tate and Baldwin has looked amazing with his limited opportunities. Plus, an amazing coverage team led by Farwell and Lane.

So we might have an average Passing Game at Best...but we know it CAN be explosive and if Russell Wilson can turn his clutch factor on, he can be as dominant as he wants to be

So we might have an average Passing Game at Best... however, we are off the charts everywhere else and its good enough to not only carry the team but to win big games, in big moments.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

PH, I often dread clicking on one of your posts. Always tempted to TLR them. :laugh:

I just look back on the year and consider that the Hawks have won games in almost every conceivable way. We've blown out good teams, we've overcome large half time deficits, we've ground out close games in sloppy conditions. That's what gives me the confidence I feel. Regardless of situations or conditions, this team finds ways to win games. Perhaps that's too amorphous and touchy-feely for some, but it's what I've got.

Much of the criticism I'm reading strikes me as "Be reasonable, do it MY way!" whining by people dissatisfied with how we won. Any statement that starts with "If we play that way next time-sometime in the future-in the Super Bowl...." is speculation. All the comments about how poorly we've played all year are duly noted (not necessarily agreed with, though ). We're 14-3 and set to play in the NFCCG. Deal with it. For me, worrying about how we're going to play next week detracts from my ability to enjoy the latest win.

I totally agree with this whole statement especially your last sentence. I feel that way, and its really hard to stay objective about it. Sure you can pass it off in your mind, but the doom and gloom pessimism still creeps in, entangles your thoughts, and. invades your pride as a fan.

And to me, in my fanatical heart, it comes down two choices: Join It or Fight It because its just to hard to Ignore it because it tends to drown out all the positive this team does every week.

 

[entropyrulesall]

Seattle's lynch pin is defense. It all starts and ends with their defense. If you can build a quick lead on seattle and soften up the defense a little, they are in big trouble. Especially with playoff ball vs a team defense like the 49ers, you have to 'bring it'. I dont think there will be many points scored come sunday. This would normally be a detriment to the 49ers as the seattle D keeps them in check at home but i have a feeling the 49ers will be able to hold seattle's offense in check his time around. Nobody's going to be too worried about Wilson's 142 last time they played in seattle, so it's on Lynch to have a good game to help open up the pass game. It can go either way but this will be a hard fought smash mouth defensive game.

Hawks haven't allowed a point in the first quarter all season. Only the Niners have more shutout quarters than the Hawks. 35 for them and 30 for the Hawks. The reality is that we don't let teams score and we rarely get behind. As the game goes on, we score a bunch in the 2nd and 3rd and close out the game with a heavy run game. I would love to see one of those high scoring games that forces Wilson and Kaep to play comeback against these awesome D's. It's just not going to happen though. I predict a winning score of 20-16, game goes to whoever has more rushing yards as the team who rushes more is 8-0 in this series going back to 2010.

 

[DavidSeven]

While realizing the offensive success is built through strategy over style. And that process in whole with the team has been about 75% successful in the last 43 games dating back to mid-season 2011.

I've disagreed with you on occasion in the past, but I think your entire post is spot-on. Kudos.

 

[bowzerbird]

@Pandion Haliaetus:

Well put together thoughts.

Not a pro football player but decent observer of the game. And in this last Seahawks game, because of the weather, rain & especially the WIND I think Russell didn't do long passing for fear of interceptions. It's like shooting long distance; the trajectory will determine the final outcome of the placement on the target. Sometimes compensation is required for accuracy. Same thing with throwing that football IN THE WIND. Conclusion: the wind could put a "spin" on the ball at 20-30 feet in the air and uh-ho. So the short yardage gains, I guess were better than nothing and definitely better then an interception / fumble.

I know this, if there's 5 minutes left in the game and we don't have say AT LEAST A 17 LEAD, we could lose. Those douche-bags know how to "throw" a game and win w/a FG.
Studying those whiners, they truly are assholes and don't know how to play an honest game of FB. That's why we need to win and play against Manning. Tell ya, a CLASSIC Super Bowl game of the century would be played. Great plays, great strategies, bottom line, a truly brilliant game of football would be demonstrated of old when FB was a sport and not a money changer or a "Valentines massacre ."