Lynch expected to be traded

[Popeyejones]

I think some are underestimating just how much the raiders want/need lynch. Not saying that will result in a higher draft pick, but this will be a legitimate trade. Hawks hold the power here.

I agree Seattle does have some leverage here and a 7th round pick is nothing imo.

How much the Raiders want or need Lynch doesn't matter.

All that matters is that there's no scenario in which the Seahawks would be willing to pay Lynch what they owe him.

It's true that if he applied for reinstatement they could wait until the day before the season to cut him, but for what?

If they did that they'd burn their relationship with Lynch, burn their relationship with the Raiders, and get months of negative press all to still get nothing in the end.

It's why a courtesy 6th or 7th makes sense.

Edit: also worth saying that the Seahawks, like the Raiders, want this to get done before the draft.

If they try to hardball with no leverage the Raiders could just draft an RB and then the Seahawks are down the 6th or 7th round pick and back to the nothing that they started with.

Edit 2 on why the Seahawks would get negative press: It would be like getting pissy and trying to stop a girl you don't want to date from dating someone else. There's no way to look good in that scenario.

 

[TAB420]

Actually, it would be like not wanting a girl you're currently dating not to date someone else...we own (the rights) to that shit. We could ask for the 2.5 to be reinstated. All the money doesn't have to be paid up front (roster bonuses.) Or, we could accept his reinstatement and trade him to the Pats.

 

[Hyak]

From an on the field perspective for the Seahawks, this whole story is a non-issue. They would have cut him last year if he had not retired after the 2015 year where Rawls was a lot more productive than he was and pulled the stunt before the Vikings playoff game. They have moved on.

Realistically, they will cut him if Lynch unretires and no trade is done BUT if Lynch does that the Seahawks are almost certain to make him pay back bonus money. Lynch doesn't want this so he'll play nice (or Hendrickson will in all reality).

It behooves all parties to resolve this before the draft as Lynch will lose leverage with Oakland if they draft a RB early. That said, this whole situation is way more diva/drama queen ish than it needs to be. There's no question that Lynch is leading the charge on that element just like he did in his last couple of years here.

 

[chris98251]

There's no question that Lynch is leading the charge on that element just like he did in his last couple of years here.

That would be the media, actually. No one wants to wait for the story to develop, they want to the bleeding edge. Unfortunately for the fans this means a lot of back and forth BS reporting.

Correction, back and forth speculation, you need facts to actually report something, the media has none.

 

[kidhawk]

There's no question that Lynch is leading the charge on that element just like he did in his last couple of years here.

That would be the media, actually. No one wants to wait for the story to develop, they want to the bleeding edge. Unfortunately for the fans this means a lot of back and forth BS reporting.

Correction, back and forth speculation, you need facts to actually report something, the media has none.

If enough of them speculate varying versions, one of them is bound to be right.

 

[chris98251]

There's no question that Lynch is leading the charge on that element just like he did in his last couple of years here.

That would be the media, actually. No one wants to wait for the story to develop, they want to the bleeding edge. Unfortunately for the fans this means a lot of back and forth BS reporting.

Correction, back and forth speculation, you need facts to actually report something, the media has none.

If enough of them speculate varying versions, one of them is bound to be right.

True, it's like buying Lotto Tickets, if you have the money to buy all the combinations you should win Hate to be the guy standing in line behind you while you check your tickets though.

 

[Hyak]

The media is the tool here and there's no question that NFLN, ESPN, and PFT all are increasingly bad about accurate reporting. That said, Lynch feeds into this on purpose IMO with his cryptic communication on the subject. IMO, his media persona since early in 2013 season is contrived to build his brand and it works - he's the poster child for non conformance against the man and he gets more attention than he did before this transformation.

 

[kidhawk]

True, it's like buying Lotto Tickets, if you have the money to buy all the combinations you should win Hate to be the guy standing in line behind you while you check your tickets though.

In the Lynch scenario, we are all THAT guy in line behind that person

 

[Sports Hernia]

Watch us get hit with a block buster.

Lynch and Sherman traded to Oakland for a 1st, 4th, and 5th round pick.

Clayton has already shot that down on his radio show.
JC is one of the very rare sportsradio hosts / sportswriters in this town that is agenda free and has some credibility left.

 

[Sports Hernia]

The media is the tool here and there's no question that NFLN, ESPN, and PFT all are increasingly bad about accurate reporting. That said, Lynch feeds into this on purpose IMO with his cryptic communication on the subject. IMO, his media persona since early in 2013 season is contrived to build his brand and it works - he's the poster child for non conformance against the man and he gets more attention than he did before this transformation.

Yep, so true.

 

[mikeak]

The problem with the argument "we were going to cut him anyways" is that it contradicts the argument "he owes us the rest of the signing bonus"

If we had cut him we would have forfeited the signing bonus. Since both parties knew he would be cut and he didn't feel like playing we let him keep the money. He always had the option to unretire and force Seattle to cut him.

 

[Chawker]

I've heard that Lynch and the raiders have agreed, now it up to the raider and the hawk to agree on a trade.

 

[Cyrus12]

I am sure it is gonna get done. Hope Lynch goes beastmode in Oakland's last year. Gotta wish nothing but the best for the guy that got us to two super bowls.

 

[Popeyejones]

Actually, it would be like not wanting a girl you're currently dating not to date someone else...we own (the rights) to that shit. We could ask for the 2.5 to be reinstated. All the money doesn't have to be paid up front (roster bonuses.) Or, we could accept his reinstatement and trade him to the Pats.

The Pats want to trade for Lynch? Link??

The Pats would either have to want to give up draft capital AND pay Lynch 9 million this year, or Lynch would have to want to go to the Pats on a restructured deal. The Pats aren't ever going to trade for him without a restructured deal because nobody is going to give Lynch what the Seahawks owe him. So how can you trade to the Pats in this scenario if Lynch doesn't decide to restructure a deal with them? Again, the Hawks hold no cards.

As for the bonus money, this fight already happened on the current CBA with an unretired player last year (Bam Davis on the 49ers) and no money changed hands. What had been done was honored. It's really not the leverage you think it is, the NFLPA would have a field day with it, and the NFL wouldn't support it either because the Hawks would just be being vindictive with no end game and gumming up something that's good for the league (Lynch the hometown boy closing out his hometown team's run in Oakland).

 

[Popeyejones]

I think some are underestimating just how much the raiders want/need lynch. Not saying that will result in a higher draft pick, but this will be a legitimate trade. Hawks hold the power here.

I agree Seattle does have some leverage here and a 7th round pick is nothing imo.

How much the Raiders want or need Lynch doesn't matter.

All that matters is that there's no scenario in which the Seahawks would be willing to pay Lynch what they owe him.

It's true that if he applied for reinstatement they could wait until the day before the season to cut him, but for what?

If they did that they'd burn their relationship with Lynch, burn their relationship with the Raiders, and get months of negative press all to still get nothing in the end.

It's why a courtesy 6th or 7th makes sense.

Edit: also worth saying that the Seahawks, like the Raiders, want this to get done before the draft.

If they try to hardball with no leverage the Raiders could just draft an RB and then the Seahawks are down the 6th or 7th round pick and back to the nothing that they started with.

Edit 2 on why the Seahawks would get negative press: It would be like getting pissy and trying to stop a girl you don't want to date from dating someone else. There's no way to look good in that scenario.

This is an outsider perspective, and one that makes sense, but it doesn't take into account the skin Seattle has in the game as well. On top of money Lynch would owe to the team, they also probably don't want to appear like pushovers to the players. Some would argue they have already looked like pushovers when it comes to Lynch so it remains to be seen how much further they are willing to go. All things considered, they hold all the cards, and could screw over Lynch if they really chose to. Lynch can definitely force their hand, but has no real control over the situation. If his end goal is to get to Oakland, he has to make the right steps as well and pissing off Seattle's front office is probably not the best way to achieve that.

They wouldn't look like pushovers for cutting a player they don't want, need, or can afford. NFL teams do that every year.

The only way they could screw over Lynch would be to hold onto his rights until the day before the season, which means Lynch still gets to go to Oakland and what Seattle got for its efforts was no draft pick and bad PR. How is that in their interest?

 

[Uncle Si]

I don't think "screwing Lynch over" is at all an interest to the Hawks. I do think they want reasonable compensation for either releasing Lynch or trading his rights. And I don't think it will be in any way inconvenient to the Raiders unless they want to offer nothing.

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^Agreed.

And reasonable compensation in the NFL for a player you're going to cut is a 6th or 7th round draft pick.

This situation is a little different from that standard compensation though because teams give the draft pick to (a) keep the player on the same deal they're on (not applicable here) and to secure their rights so they can't sign with another team when cut (also not applicable here).

Remember though, the Raiders have to give SOMETHING so that a trade has actually taken place.

The way to think about it IMO is that anything above a conditional 7th in next years draft is just people playing nicely with each other, which everyone should be doing.

The Raiders could be jerks and insist they're not willing to give up anything more than a conditional 7th in next year's draft, but if the Seahawks ask for much more than that then they're the ones who are being jerks.

 

[Popeyejones]

More generally it's also worth saying that there ARE two scenarios in which the Seahawks could have leverage in this situation:

(1) The Seahawks decide they want Lynch on their team for 9 million this year.

(2) The Seahawks are able to convince the Raiders that they want Lynch on their team for 9 million this year.

AFAIK literally nobody who is arguing that the Seahawks have leverage has tried to argue that the Hawks want Lynch on their team at 9 million this year.

 

[Uncle Si]

Yeah I don't think the Seahawks are working very hard to leverage anything here. But... they also don't have to be in any hurry (I don't think) to sign off on something they aren't comfortable with.

I'd imagine they maybe sky for a 5th and get something close. Unless the Raiders see this as merely a PR move. Seahawks may suggest compensation based on playing time.

It's interesting. I don't think it's anything like Favre though

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^ yeah, the only hurry is wanting to get it done before the draft so that the Raiders don't end up taking an RB and then they get nothing.

And agreed to that a 5th is the right initial ask, just as a conditional 7th is the right initial offer for the Raiders. Then they settle on a sixth or seventh.