Seeing all these trades is fun. Reminds me a bit of the 2010 Seahawks offseason.
I liked the Aoki signing. It's a classic 'Honda civic' type move that Pat Gillick used to make all the time, a low cost vet that isn't going to headline, but will quietly add good value to the bottom line. It also gets Cruz out of right field.
Parting ways with Trumbo made sense, at least if you buy into the value of defense. Trumbo had a good bat last season but he posted only a net WAR of 0.2 as a Mariner last year, with almost all of his offense being cancelled out by bad defense. If he repeated that performance in 2016, it would not be a good way to spend $9 million.
By contrast, the Mariners acquired Adam Lind basically for a bag of Doritos, and Adam Lind is a much better fit for Dipoto's Mariners AND costs less money ($8 million in 2016). Yes, he's probably a rental player, but if he has a great year it could net Seattle an extra draft pick or maybe get trade deadline consideration. This was a pretty bad trade by Milwaukie to give up a 2 WAR player making only $8 million.
Lind is a very consistent player at the plate, decently comparable to Kyle Seager if Seager had less pop and drew more walks. Lind's defense is his weak point, but even with bad defense he's still a good bet for 2 WAR. Lind has been worth a combined 7 WAR the past 3 seasons and was worth 3.1 WAR last year, thanks to his defense being better. Lind also bats left and his gap power is a good fit for Safeco. At 32, he still figures to have at least 1 prime year left. It's only a 1 year solution most likely but regardless this was a very nice pickup for Seattle to address a need at 1B. It reminds me a bit of the Raul Ibanez signing in 2004.
I'm not all that high on the Ianetta signing, he was awful last year, but so were all our other catchers and Ianetta has been good in the past. Hard to complain about the pricetag though (1 year, $4.25m). Like most GMs, Dipoto has a bias towards his former players at previous jobs. Ianetta was Dipoto's handpicked catcher in Anaheim.
Joaquin Benoit was a nice pickup. I always love it when my team is on the receiving end of a fire sale trade. Unfortunately, the bullpen might not be able to hand leads to Benoit in the ninth as much anymore with Dipoto dealing our three best setup men.
I have mixed feelings on the Leonys Martin trade. For starters, he's a defense guy with a bad bat, who used to have a good bat. In other words, he's basically the CF equivalent of Brendan Ryan. Brendan Ryan's bat actually got worse in Seattle, and though he was probably the best defensive shortstop in the game, nobody missed him when the Mariners eventually kicked his ass to the curb. Like Ryan, Martin presents decent bang for the buck ($4.75m in 2016 for a guy that was a 1 WAR player isn't terrible). This trade is also a bit like the Austin Jackson trade in the sense that Jackson was a buy low guy who could maybe bounce back.
But I just can't help but think that Martin probably won't bounce back and we'll probably hate seeing him in the lineup every day. There's a reason a division rival was willing to trade him to us despite his past history of being a 4.6 WAR player as recently as 2014.
I'm okay with losing James Jones, he's a career AAA player IMO. But losing Wilhelmsen hurts especially after he turned things around last season. So while the trade has a chance to work out nicely, I think the odds are that Seattle cuts Martin after one unpleasant season and we'll miss Wilhelmsen. IMO, it was too much to give up for Brendan Ryan, the OF.
Seattle gave up a lot to get Nathan Karns but I think it's an okay trade. I think Tampa won the trade more than Seattle, but I think Seattle will get more out of Karns than they would have out of the players they gave up since they didn't fit Dipoto's model. Karns is an excellent strikeout pitcher with high walks and a slightly above average FIP. He's basically a better version of 2014 Roenis Elias. Seattle also got a high OBP CF in Powell that might reach the majors at some point. Overall it was a solid trade.
My least favorite transaction was the Elias / Smith swap for Wade Miley and a AAA reliever. Miley is better than Elias, but not by much. The part that sucks is that Elias isn't even the best player Seattle gave up. Carson Smith is one of the best setup pitchers in the game. Last season he nearly matched Miley's WAR despite having less than half as many innings.
Miley has hidden value in that he's both consistent and durable, and his financial cost is fair (2y/$15m) but he's not worth Carson Smith. Seattle would have been better this season with Smith and Elias than with Miley, and would have saved money to boot. Sounds like Miley was drafted by the Dbacks when Dipoto was there, so this move smacks of Dipoto overvaluing his own players and undervaluing Jack Z's players.
Dipoto also let Iwakuma walk for a reasonable amount of money. He's probably scared of the history of Japanese pitchers having an early decline, but not keeping Iwakuma flies in the face of all the other "win now" moves he's been making.
Overall, the offseason has been a mixed bag. While many of the moves are smart, the overall amalgamation of these moves has made the roster older and only just barely better. If Dipoto wants to go 'win now' mode then fine, but then why hurt the team by trading Carson Smith and letting Iwakuma walk? Hopefully there is something big up his sleeve yet to come, because right now the Mariners probably still need to add 5 more wins to their team to have a realistic opportunity at the playoffs.
