More Geno Speculation - From 5 GM's & 3 Agents

[MORGULON]

With the importance of the position league wide, Geno is going to get paid
Very well somewhere.

 

[Somos doces]

For Geno Smith's sake, I absolutely hope he is able to earn enough money over the next couple of years to set up his family for success for generations to come.

That said, for comparison, here are the current NFL quarterbacks who are as old as, and older than, Smith. Would you want your favorite NFL team to agree to pay any of these guys a minimum of $28 million per season for 2023 and possibly additional seasons?

 

[RockinHawks]

For Geno Smith's sake, I absolutely hope he is able to earn enough money over the next couple of years to set up his family for success for generations to come.

That said, for comparison, here are the current NFL quarterbacks who are as old as, and older than, Smith. Would you want your favorite NFL team to agree to pay any of these guys a minimum of $28 million per season for 2023 and possibly additional seasons?

View attachment 55832

Good Lord, how are Chad Henne and Brian Hoyer ONLY 37? Seems like they've been stinking up the sidelines since the early 90s. Good gravy...

Also, I know Aaron Rodgers is technically still in his 30s... but his face and general physicality looks, at a minimum, 62.

 

[keasley45]

I think you have to take paying Geno in the grand scheme of where the franchise is right now. Pete has < 5 years left coaching and if i were to guess, probably more like 3. The roster is built right now with a 3 year or so window for high level competition (which surprisingly opened a bit early this year) where we arent going to REALLY start realizing the CAP ramifications of a young crop of draftees who are already starting to show their value, and a crop this upcoming year that will no doubt add to the strength of a young, cheap and highly talented roster.
So when trying to decide whether or not to pay Geno, you have to also take into account that if we let a franchise QB walk and opt to go with a young gun at the position, you are likely gamblng away the prime years of a team ready to compete right now, without killing the team financially. In my opinion, thats a foolhardy position to take. Locking up Geno, even if its for more than whats perceived as the 'going rate' for a 'new' starter, means you can get the absolute most of the pieces you have now. Where in 2012, we were relying on the strength of a defense and a bell-cow elite, veteran RB to carry us, now, we can lean on a veteran QB whos throwing the lights out of the place to maximize the potential of a team with varying degrees of youth and experience on both sides of the ball - Good in many aspects, but not great in any the way the LOB was.

Geno gives you the security of knowing that every Sunday, for the next three or 4 years, whatever pieces you have around the QB postition will see their max potemtial or close to it. The offense will run efficiently. The defense will have the benefit of having an offense that can keep them off the field, and you have a mind at the QB position that is seasoned enough to weather the storm of the exodus of top offensiive coaching minds who will be plucked to man luctrative positions in other organizations.

Let the guy walk for a young talent, or lesser capable talent, and a change at OC will have much longer lasting impacts. And i'd wager a good bit that Waldron, by 2024, will be entertaining better gigs elsewhere. By 2023, Geno will be able to run this offense regardless of who is calling the plays.

Theres just too much to lose in being cavalier and taking the stance that Geno has only proven he's worth 20 or 30 million a year. if we let the dude walk and plug in Lock (or a rookie) and the house comes tumbling down around a team that is otherwise stout and ready to go, and we'll all be wishing we could hand the dude a check for 10 million to get us back in the playoffs.

Likewise, RELYING on the hope that a rookie can come in and carry this team to the same place Geno would if we let him walk... if you're right, great. If youre wrong, we just wasted a chance to be in the SB conversation for last few years of the PC era. And even if you are right, the chances that that young guy is ready to go year one... even Mahomes sat for a year. Allen took 2 to become the Allen we know now.

Sign Geno up now. Keep him here for the 'going rate' for the next few years, and when those cheap rookie deals of Woolen, Bryant, Cross, et al, plus the next crop of killers comes due, bid him farewell for the young franchise qb you just signed who doesnt need to be 'Everything' becaiuse he has a team around him thats seasoned, primed and still ready to compete. You'll have your franchise qb on the cheap, carried by pieces around him, ala Russ in 2012.

And get the guy the extra coin he needs by cutting Adams, G Jackson, letting Diss go when his hit is less (we have Parkinson and Fant)... there's money to be saved elsewhere to free up space for the 'extra' cash it might take to keep Geno here.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

So, you want them to cut a bunch of guys so we can keep Geno? Hmmmm

 

[nwHawk]

I wouldn’t cut Uncle Will. He is sneaky good. Jackson, Adams, and even Poona (which kills because I have a Ford jersey) would be okay.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I'll give Geno his props but he just can't walk into negotiations and start demanding anything. Sure, he's having a great season, but that's the point. ONE good season that's it. Is that worth 30-35 mil a year, not to me it isn't unless they win the SB this year, and even if that does happen I still wanna see 1 more year.

30 million a year is barely top half of the league... it'd be 13th highest paid in the NFL. That seems like an OVERLY fair starting point for Geno's team should he sustain this level of passing efficiency.

Super Bowl victory is an absolutely insane bar to set for the right to be paid barely above average starter money at the spot

 

[SoulfishHawk]

And we still have 7 games to play and hopefully playoffs. The longer it goes, the more coin he makes.

 

[nwHawk]

Very true. I wouldn’t be surprised if Geno goes over 40/yr when all is said and done.

 

[Donn2390]

This is his last chance to get paid. The dude is going to start at 4 years 120 fully guaranteed and go from there.

THAT... is not going to happen. Seahawks will do all in their power to retain his services, and Geno is purely a class act and wants to remain in Seattle, so he will do what it takes to remain. 30 mil plus is more than twice as much as he has earned combined in all his years in the NFL.
He loves his current position and knows without Pete the remainder of his career would be spent carrying a clipboard. Clipboards holder make a couple of mil a year. $30 a mil a year buys a new RR..!
There is also the fact that how many other teams are willing to offer him a gold mine considering his past, that being his age and no history as a starter. It would be a gamble, he may remain in the top ten for years, he may not. Gambles don't always pay off, ask Walmart..!
Another factor, is he going to fall apart over the remainder of the season,(I doubt it), or will the Hawks end up in the SB? That is a big unknown at this point but has everything to do with when negotiations begin.
How about $25 mil a year loaded with incentives to get him past 30?

 

[sdog1981]

THAT... is not going to happen. Seahawks will do all in their power to retain his services, and Geno is purely a class act and wants to remain in Seattle,

Just stop, you don't know that. I don't know that. What we both know is this is his last chance to get paid.

As a Seahawks fan, hell yeah I want him to stay on a team-friendly deal.

As a Geno Smith fan, hell yeah I want him to get as much as he can.

 

[Hawkinaz]

I use Ryan Tannehill as a comparison and he is APY of $30 million a year. Give him some good upfront money 3-4 year contract

 

[Jegpeg]

For Geno Smith's sake, I absolutely hope he is able to earn enough money over the next couple of years to set up his family for success for generations to come.

That said, for comparison, here are the current NFL quarterbacks who are as old as, and older than, Smith. Would you want your favorite NFL team to agree to pay any of these guys a minimum of $28 million per season for 2023 and possibly additional seasons?

View attachment 55832

I would be delighted to pay a 32 year old Brady or Rogers $28m PA

 

[bmorepunk]

I use Ryan Tannehill as a comparison and he is APY of $30 million a year. Give him some good upfront money 3-4 year contract

Tannehill's contract was four years. While the average is almost $30 million/year, his cap hit this year (third year) is $36.6 million with a $57.4 million dead cap. If they cut him before next year to save his $36.6 million it is a $18.8 million dead cap.

His cap numbers for the first two years were $22.5 million and $11.1 million with dead caps of $62 million and $68.5 million.

I really don't care about a player's yearly average or guarantee. There is correlation to cap hits, but those numbers don't tell us how much and when. I want to know how much that player eats up out of the cap and how painful it's going to be to cut them loose.

 

[Mike D in 332]

I'll give Geno his props but he just can't walk into negotiations and start demanding anything. Sure, he's having a great season, but that's the point. ONE good season that's it. Is that worth 30-35 mil a year, not to me it isn't unless they win the SB this year, and even if that does happen I still wanna see 1 more year.

If another team wants to pay hm big money then hood for him. I think you have to let him walk in that case. He’s not irreplaceable.

 

[keasley45]

If another team wants to pay hm big money then hood for him. I think you have to let him walk in that case. He’s not irreplaceable.

Sure. Get a guy who by the end of the season if he's still playing at a MVP level, let him go so you can roll the dice on a rookie... potentially wasting a talented roster on a player who has shown zero seasons of viability and could require years to perform at a level even approaching what Geno is doing now, and in the process, spend the last 3 years of PCs tenure here in a true 'rebuild' around a potentially less than ideal situation at QB.

How many other borderline MVP caliber qbs are out there that you'd bring in to replace Geno?

A bird in hand...

 

[keasley45]

I'll give Geno his props but he just can't walk into negotiations and start demanding anything. Sure, he's having a great season, but that's the point. ONE good season that's it. Is that worth 30-35 mil a year, not to me it isn't unless they win the SB this year, and even if that does happen I still wanna see 1 more year.

So a qb who is in the MVP conversation and is literally the only reason we are competitive this year has no ground to stand on in negotiations and shouldn't expect to be recognized financially for the fact that he is the centerpiece of the team right now?

I wonder if it were a 3rd year qb that we'd drafted late who lit it up in his 3rd year and was in the MVP conversation, but was mediocre his first 2 years... whether we'd all still be talking about how that guy didn't have a right to demand anything.

 

[keasley45]

So, you want them to cut a bunch of guys so we can keep Geno? Hmmmm

Uh... I love Adams, but he hasn't been on the field enough to warrant his contract.

I love Will D, but he just got paid top TE money when we have two other guys on the roster who are cheaper and producing at a similar level. You can't pay 3 TE's top $.

Gabe Jackson is arguably our worst OL, yet also makes good $

There's enough $ on the roster in underperforming or luxury contracts to make sure your team has a shot to keep a franchise, borderline MVP quarterback in-house.

And with the draft picks we have, we can cut Adams or whoever and replace him with a blue chip player at 1/5 the money and still have a franchise guy under center.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Jackson yes. Hell no on Uncle Will. All I heard the last several years is how one player taking a huge chunk of the salary ruins it for the cap and keeping players etc.
Geno is playing well, but there is still a lot of ball to be played. But that somehow makes someone a "hater" if they don't think Geno is an MVP level player. Or deserves some massive contract, and yes, plenty seem to think he does already. I want him to stick around for another couple seasons, IF it's not a break the bank contract.

MVP candidate? Not yet. Hopefully he will continue to rise, especially against the tougher teams/defenses and in to the playoffs.

 

[Jac]

A really interesting spot for him would be the Jets. So many storylines would write themselves, and they're only a veteran QB away from competing for the AFC East. At the same time, going anywhere else would be a big "the grass is always greener" risk. That being said, I really want to keep him. One more excellent draft and this team is set up to be legitimate SB contenders for the next several years.