Hawknballs
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NFC Playoff Picture:
The Favorites:
Dallas
Philadelphia
Detroit
Green Bay
(Winner of the NFC South)
Arizona
In the Mix:
Seattle
San Francisco
Statistically Alive:
St. Louis
Chicago
Minnesota
Not Worth the Math Headache:
NY Giants
Washington
(Everyone in the NFC South)
It’s not likely Seattle will win the NFC West, and the recipe for doing so is fairly easy and not really worth the analysis – start winning and hope Arizona (and SF) start losing. So, let’s take a look at the rest of the playoff teams and figure out some best case scenarios.
NFC EAST:
Dallas:
@NY Giants (W)
Philadelphia (W)
@Chicago (W)
@Philadelphia (L)
Vs. Indianapolis (L)
@Washington (W)
Projected Finish: 11-5
Wild Card
I see the Cowboys splitting two critical games with the Eagles, losing one at home to Indy whom is familiar and confident playing indoor games, and beating two teams they should beat in the Giants and Bears.
Philadelphia:
@Tennessee (W)
@Dallas (L)
Seattle (W)
Dallas (W)
@Washington (W)
@NY Giants (W)
Projected Finish: 12-4
NFC East Champion
#3 Seed (Head to Head Losses to GB and AZ)
With the exception of a game against Seattle at home, and a home/away pair of matchups with Dallas, Philly adds three games they should win and will be favored in. I give them the nod over our Seahawks because Philly will almost assuredly be favored at home.
Dallas vs. Philly in regards to SEA based on projection:
Seattle loses a tie-breaker with Dallas, so realistically speaking, unless one of these teams begins an unlikely fall out of the playoff picture, it’s best if Dallas wins the NFC East so we aren’t competing with them for a wild card.
Unfortunately It’s not quite as simple as Seattle beating Philadelphia to send both teams to 11-5, because the Eagles would still hold a one-game advantage in terms of division record. So, if both teams were 11-5, one of Philly’s losses would need to be against Washington or the Giants. That would send the tie-breaker to record against common opponents; however it’s going to be tough to get there.
Dallas currently has a 6-3 record against common opponents, with 3 games left to play in which I predict they’ll go 2-1 for a total of 8-4.
Philadelphia is 6-2 against common opponents, with 4 games left to play. I have Philly favored in all those games, but in our above scenario they need to lose to WAS or NYG anyways. They would also need to lose two more of them to lose this tie-breaker, which would also eliminate the need for a tie-breaker in the first place.
Best Case:
Dallas Sweeps Philly + Seattle beats Philly.
End Result:
Looks like we are rooting for Dallas and against Philly the rest of the way, because we don’t want to end up in a tie-breaker for a wild card with Dallas.
NFC North:
Green Bay:
@Minnesota (W)
New England (L)
Atlanta (W)
@Buffalo (W)
@Tampa Bay (W)
Detroit (W)
Projected Finish: 12-4
NFC North Champion
#2 Seed (Head to Head over Philly, Common Opponents conceded to AZ)
Almost hard to find a loss on the schedule for the Packer’s remaining games. If there’s one team I can’t just chalk up an automatic loss for, it’s the Patriots. The only other close game might be Detroit, but I think the Packers handle that business at home.
Detroit:
@New England (L)
Chicago (W)
Tampa Bay (W)
Minnesota (W)
@Chicago (W)
@Green Bay (L)
Projected Finish: 11-5
Wild Card
Likewise, not a rough schedule for the Lions. They are a dome team traveling to New England so I’ll give them a loss there and another to GB.
Green Bay vs. Detroit in regards to SEA based on projection:
Now we run into the opposite problem, where Seattle owns a tie-breaker over the team slated to win the division. If Detroit can buck my projection and turn that last game @Green Bay into a win, that would certainly help. In any event, we need Detroit to win the division, and we need Green bay to lose at least three more games – which might be too much to ask for.
Best Case Scenario:
Lions take the division; Green Bay finishes tied or below SEA in wins.
End Result:
Root for Detroit to win and GB to lose.
NFC West:
Arizona
@Seattle (L)
@Atlanta (W)
Kansas City (W)
@St. Louis (L)
Seattle (W)
@SF (L)
Projected Finish: 12-4
NFC West Champion
#1 Seed (Head to Head over Dallas; Common Opponents over GB)
For the sake of projections and how competitively the NFC west teams play each other, we’re just assuming road losses. The Kansas City game could be interesting but the advantage goes to the home team.
San Francisco
Washington (W)
Seattle (W)
@Oakland (W)
@Seattle (L)
San Diego (L)
Arizona (W)
Projected Finish: 10-6
Four of the 49ers last six games are at home, and one of the road games is against Oakland, which is basically a home game when it comes to travel. The other trip is just up to Seattle, a short flight – who’s butt did these guys kiss to get a great schedule to finish the year? I still don’t see them beating Seattle in Seattle, and they could have a tough time with the Chargers.
Seattle:
Arizona (W)
@SF (L)
@Philadelphia (L)
SF (W)
@Arizona (L)
St. Louis (W)
Projected Finish: 9-7
Don’t shoot the messenger – I’m a fan and as far as I’m concerned it’s mathematically possible to still get the #1 seed. But Seattle has by far the toughest schedule to wrap up the season out of all 32 teams, and I’m just going with what the general consensus will be.
Seattle vs. Arizona vs. San Francisco based on projections
This division is the most important but also the easiest to sort out, because we obviously want Arizona and SF to lose while Seattle wins. Pretty cut and dried. That could change a bit as the season wraps up because Seattle plays both teams twice. Arizona at SF to end the season could mean we’re rooting for the Cardinals to hand the 49ers a loss, but until then It’s pretty straight forward.
Unfortunately the projections make it difficult to see Seattle having much of a shot.
Best Case Scenario:
SF & AZ lose, SEA wins
NFC South:
The NFC South isn’t worth getting into as 4-6 Atlanta leads that sorry division at the moment. Unless multiple teams go on winning streaks, no wild card is coming from that division. In that case we want one of those teams to be Carolina since we own the head to head, but we want the other team to actually win the division. The only rooting interest we have:
1. Carolina – we want them to win to boost our opponent win % in case it comes into tie-breaker play
2. Atlanta plays Arizona and Green Bay, so we’ll be rooting for them to win those games
3. Tampa plays Detroit and Green Bay. We’ll want them to lose to Detroit, but beat Green Bay to increase the chances that Detroit takes the NFC North and GB is put in a spot where they are competing with SEA for a wild card spot, where SEA holds the advantage
I suppose “Best Case” scenario sees Atlanta go on a tear to win the division since we need them to beat two good teams along the way, while Carolina hangs around in second place winning games to boost that win %.
Long Story Short:
If you still think Seattle has as hot to win the NFC West:
NFC East:
Root for Philly to win the division, knowing that we have to catch up to their win total and beat them when we play them. Dallas owns a tie-breaker over us.
NFC North:
Root for GB to win the division as we own a tie-breaker over them.
NFC West:
SEA to Win, AZ and SF to lose, SF over AZ in week 17
NFC South:
Carolina to win out (not necessary but helps in very rare circumstances)
If you think Seattle is Wild Card or Bust:
NFC East:
Root for Dallas to win and Philly to lose.
NFC North:
Root for Detroit to win and Green Bay to lose
NFC West:
Root for SEA to win and SF to lose and AZ to beat SF in week 17
NFC South:
Root for Carolina to take second place with as many wins as possible as long as they are equal to or less than Seattle’s win total (not necessary but helps in very rare circumstances). Or Carolina to win the division as long as no other team gets hot and undefeated the rest of the way (not likely)
The Favorites:
Dallas
Philadelphia
Detroit
Green Bay
(Winner of the NFC South)
Arizona
In the Mix:
Seattle
San Francisco
Statistically Alive:
St. Louis
Chicago
Minnesota
Not Worth the Math Headache:
NY Giants
Washington
(Everyone in the NFC South)
It’s not likely Seattle will win the NFC West, and the recipe for doing so is fairly easy and not really worth the analysis – start winning and hope Arizona (and SF) start losing. So, let’s take a look at the rest of the playoff teams and figure out some best case scenarios.
NFC EAST:
Dallas:
@NY Giants (W)
Philadelphia (W)
@Chicago (W)
@Philadelphia (L)
Vs. Indianapolis (L)
@Washington (W)
Projected Finish: 11-5
Wild Card
I see the Cowboys splitting two critical games with the Eagles, losing one at home to Indy whom is familiar and confident playing indoor games, and beating two teams they should beat in the Giants and Bears.
Philadelphia:
@Tennessee (W)
@Dallas (L)
Seattle (W)
Dallas (W)
@Washington (W)
@NY Giants (W)
Projected Finish: 12-4
NFC East Champion
#3 Seed (Head to Head Losses to GB and AZ)
With the exception of a game against Seattle at home, and a home/away pair of matchups with Dallas, Philly adds three games they should win and will be favored in. I give them the nod over our Seahawks because Philly will almost assuredly be favored at home.
Dallas vs. Philly in regards to SEA based on projection:
Seattle loses a tie-breaker with Dallas, so realistically speaking, unless one of these teams begins an unlikely fall out of the playoff picture, it’s best if Dallas wins the NFC East so we aren’t competing with them for a wild card.
Unfortunately It’s not quite as simple as Seattle beating Philadelphia to send both teams to 11-5, because the Eagles would still hold a one-game advantage in terms of division record. So, if both teams were 11-5, one of Philly’s losses would need to be against Washington or the Giants. That would send the tie-breaker to record against common opponents; however it’s going to be tough to get there.
Dallas currently has a 6-3 record against common opponents, with 3 games left to play in which I predict they’ll go 2-1 for a total of 8-4.
Philadelphia is 6-2 against common opponents, with 4 games left to play. I have Philly favored in all those games, but in our above scenario they need to lose to WAS or NYG anyways. They would also need to lose two more of them to lose this tie-breaker, which would also eliminate the need for a tie-breaker in the first place.
Best Case:
Dallas Sweeps Philly + Seattle beats Philly.
End Result:
Looks like we are rooting for Dallas and against Philly the rest of the way, because we don’t want to end up in a tie-breaker for a wild card with Dallas.
NFC North:
Green Bay:
@Minnesota (W)
New England (L)
Atlanta (W)
@Buffalo (W)
@Tampa Bay (W)
Detroit (W)
Projected Finish: 12-4
NFC North Champion
#2 Seed (Head to Head over Philly, Common Opponents conceded to AZ)
Almost hard to find a loss on the schedule for the Packer’s remaining games. If there’s one team I can’t just chalk up an automatic loss for, it’s the Patriots. The only other close game might be Detroit, but I think the Packers handle that business at home.
Detroit:
@New England (L)
Chicago (W)
Tampa Bay (W)
Minnesota (W)
@Chicago (W)
@Green Bay (L)
Projected Finish: 11-5
Wild Card
Likewise, not a rough schedule for the Lions. They are a dome team traveling to New England so I’ll give them a loss there and another to GB.
Green Bay vs. Detroit in regards to SEA based on projection:
Now we run into the opposite problem, where Seattle owns a tie-breaker over the team slated to win the division. If Detroit can buck my projection and turn that last game @Green Bay into a win, that would certainly help. In any event, we need Detroit to win the division, and we need Green bay to lose at least three more games – which might be too much to ask for.
Best Case Scenario:
Lions take the division; Green Bay finishes tied or below SEA in wins.
End Result:
Root for Detroit to win and GB to lose.
NFC West:
Arizona
@Seattle (L)
@Atlanta (W)
Kansas City (W)
@St. Louis (L)
Seattle (W)
@SF (L)
Projected Finish: 12-4
NFC West Champion
#1 Seed (Head to Head over Dallas; Common Opponents over GB)
For the sake of projections and how competitively the NFC west teams play each other, we’re just assuming road losses. The Kansas City game could be interesting but the advantage goes to the home team.
San Francisco
Washington (W)
Seattle (W)
@Oakland (W)
@Seattle (L)
San Diego (L)
Arizona (W)
Projected Finish: 10-6
Four of the 49ers last six games are at home, and one of the road games is against Oakland, which is basically a home game when it comes to travel. The other trip is just up to Seattle, a short flight – who’s butt did these guys kiss to get a great schedule to finish the year? I still don’t see them beating Seattle in Seattle, and they could have a tough time with the Chargers.
Seattle:
Arizona (W)
@SF (L)
@Philadelphia (L)
SF (W)
@Arizona (L)
St. Louis (W)
Projected Finish: 9-7
Don’t shoot the messenger – I’m a fan and as far as I’m concerned it’s mathematically possible to still get the #1 seed. But Seattle has by far the toughest schedule to wrap up the season out of all 32 teams, and I’m just going with what the general consensus will be.
Seattle vs. Arizona vs. San Francisco based on projections
This division is the most important but also the easiest to sort out, because we obviously want Arizona and SF to lose while Seattle wins. Pretty cut and dried. That could change a bit as the season wraps up because Seattle plays both teams twice. Arizona at SF to end the season could mean we’re rooting for the Cardinals to hand the 49ers a loss, but until then It’s pretty straight forward.
Unfortunately the projections make it difficult to see Seattle having much of a shot.
Best Case Scenario:
SF & AZ lose, SEA wins
NFC South:
The NFC South isn’t worth getting into as 4-6 Atlanta leads that sorry division at the moment. Unless multiple teams go on winning streaks, no wild card is coming from that division. In that case we want one of those teams to be Carolina since we own the head to head, but we want the other team to actually win the division. The only rooting interest we have:
1. Carolina – we want them to win to boost our opponent win % in case it comes into tie-breaker play
2. Atlanta plays Arizona and Green Bay, so we’ll be rooting for them to win those games
3. Tampa plays Detroit and Green Bay. We’ll want them to lose to Detroit, but beat Green Bay to increase the chances that Detroit takes the NFC North and GB is put in a spot where they are competing with SEA for a wild card spot, where SEA holds the advantage
I suppose “Best Case” scenario sees Atlanta go on a tear to win the division since we need them to beat two good teams along the way, while Carolina hangs around in second place winning games to boost that win %.
Long Story Short:
If you still think Seattle has as hot to win the NFC West:
NFC East:
Root for Philly to win the division, knowing that we have to catch up to their win total and beat them when we play them. Dallas owns a tie-breaker over us.
NFC North:
Root for GB to win the division as we own a tie-breaker over them.
NFC West:
SEA to Win, AZ and SF to lose, SF over AZ in week 17
NFC South:
Carolina to win out (not necessary but helps in very rare circumstances)
If you think Seattle is Wild Card or Bust:
NFC East:
Root for Dallas to win and Philly to lose.
NFC North:
Root for Detroit to win and Green Bay to lose
NFC West:
Root for SEA to win and SF to lose and AZ to beat SF in week 17
NFC South:
Root for Carolina to take second place with as many wins as possible as long as they are equal to or less than Seattle’s win total (not necessary but helps in very rare circumstances). Or Carolina to win the division as long as no other team gets hot and undefeated the rest of the way (not likely)