NFC WEST vs NFC SOUTH

[bestfightstory]

I think these will be the very two best divisions in all of the NFL this coming year.

I have held this belief since the end of the 2012 campaign and I even made a similar thread to this one pre-draft and stuck it in the NFL Nation Forum.

And now, post draft and with free agent movement such as Revis and Reed to Tampa, my belief is cemented.

What's interesting is these 2 divisions are paired up against one another. As a result, if my hypothesis is true: Each team in either division will play 10 of 16 games against teams from the two best divisions in football.......


How this impacts the number of victories it will require to win either division is impacted. Hell. Vegas over/unders are impacted.

I think the weakest of the eight teams is Arizona. The other 7 are very very strong teams.

Which division do you guys feel is stronger top to bottom and which do you think will prevail head to head?

 

[bestfightstory]

Actually. As I reread this, I suspect Vegas may support my hypothesis. I'm about to go to sleep, so don't care to research, but from memory:

The 4 Super Bowl favorites from the NFC are
SanFran
Seattle
GreenBay
Atlanta

3of the4 reside in the WestandSouth. Would be interesting to look deeper into this. Am curious to read your thoughts. Good night.

 

[bestfightstory]

Okay.

I looked.

FOUR of the top eight SUPER BOWL favorites and FOIR of the top FIVE to win the NFC reside in the NFCWest or SOUTH.

In order:
San Fran
Seattle
GreenBay
Atlanta
New Orleans

 

[drdiags]

I think the NFC South is the stronger division, top to bottom. At least offensively. A couple of their teams defenses are in need of stabilization.

The NFC West has stronger defenses, top to bottom. 3 of them could have good enough offenses.

The NFC East has perennial contender NYG and upstart Washington. Eagles unknown with new coach and Cowboys are a mystery to me. They could have a couple teams making an impact but RGIII's leg is a concern.

The NFC North has Green Bay, who will threaten but the Bears are trying to do a turnover of the roster without having to do a rebuild. Not sure where they are. Lions may need to shakeup their leadership if they repeat the performance they had last year, they should have been much better. Vikings could fall back but they did make the playoffs. They aren't expected to contend for the conference. Besides the Packers, the rest of the division is a question mark.

The 4 favorites listed seem logical but a team from the NFC East will most likely end up in the top 4 of the NFC based on performance and not just winning their division.

I like the South for most dangerous and competitive.

 

[kigenzun]

The NFC West is IMO the best. With the top 2 Superbowl favorites, and a vastly improved Rams team, it makes up for Arizona being kinda pathetic. Personally, I am unimpressed with either Tampa or Carolina, so that kinda offsets Atlanta being the strongest, with New Orleans in the second tier. So I'll say the West wins it 3-2. I also believe it will require a minimum of 11-5 to with either division, which will definitely be plenty of a challenge for any of the top teams. I do not foresee any 13-3's or better, and maybe only a single 12-4 from the two divisions combined.

 

[Bakergirl]

I don't know that I would agree with New Orleans...Sure they got their coach back but they have a lot of ground to make up after his forced vacation last year. Just a feeling.

 

[kearly]

How Football outsiders would rank their 2012 seasons (league average is zero):

#1: Seahawks (+38.3%)
#2: 49ers (+29.9%)
#3: Falcons (+9.1%)
#4: Panthers (+5.5%)
#5: Rams (+1.1%)
#6: Saints (-5.2%)
#7: Bucs (-6.6%)
#8: Cardinals (-16.6%)

Honestly, I don't think the NFC South is all that great. Atlanta is a paper tiger that only beat us because of a few breaks (one of them being them drawing the only 10am start of the postseason which of course was against us). The Saints defense was historically bad last year with no real reason to think a turnaround is coming. The Bucs do very well in the running game on both sides of the ball but that's pretty much it. Carolina is the team I have my eye on, but I had my eye on them before last year too and they took half a season to wake up.

Clearly the Seahawks and 49ers stand out. Seattle gets Atlanta and Carolina at 10am, (which is a crock of shit) and they get Arizona on the road on a very short week. If not for some issues coming from the schedule, I'd say Seattle would probably rip through that lineup- potentially undefeated. I don't think those teams are that great- SF aside, but I have confidence that Seattle could go into San Fran and walk out with a win assuming they play a typical Seahawk game and don't drop 80 passes. I think they will be lucky to go 1-1 between Atlanta and Carolina though- even though they would blow both of them out in Seattle.

(also, regarding the 2nd best division, I'd say it's easily the NFC North. All four teams finished with a positive DVOA, the only division in the NFL to do that. Green Bay is a great team and Chicago was even better than their 10-6 record)

 

[Hawks46]

I'm with Kearly on this.

Atlanta is a very good team, but has questions on defense. They don't have a great secondary, and dont' have a good pass rush to hide it. Their rush defense was middle of the road last year.

New Orleans. This seems to be the sleeper pick from many, and it's all based on emotion. Sure, Payton is coming back, and they have Brees and a good offense, but their defense is HISTORICALLY bad. Now they have a new DC and a completely new scheme, which they don't have the best personnel for. I see this team being involved in a lot of shootouts that they lose.

Tampa Bay. Their biggest question mark is at QB. Freeman has all the talent in the world, but he's inconsistent. Like Kearly said, they have a very good rush offense and defense, while their pass defense was terrible and their passing offense was mediocre. They have some big name FA aquisitions, but Goldson isn't considered a top notch coverage Safety, and Revis is recovering from a major knee injury. Also ask Philadelphia how adding a ton of big name FA's can work out for you.

Carolina is the dark horse here. They had a poor run defense, which they addressed by two of the best DL in the draft. They have a dynamic offense, coupled with an inconsistent QB. When Newton is on, he's insane. When he's off, he's pretty bad, and he pouts so there's no pulling out of the tailspin. They have a very good rushing offense. Their passing offense is inconsistent. In what seems an annual rite of passage, they went and got no help on the other side for Steve Smith. I can't blame the guy for being a punk. Their secondary is terrible, maybe one of the worst in the league, and that mask that by having an above average pass rush.

Now compare to the NFCW:

Seahawks. We know our team. It's stacked, and that's not homerism.

San Fran. They're stacked too, on both sides of the ball. THey have a slightly suspect secondary which they mask by having a better pass rush than us.

ST Louis. Maybe the best DL in the game, period. They have a promising young defense, one of the best coaches in the game, and have a tougher mentality. Their OL is annually suspect, but they've taken steps to shore it up. Bradford has been inconsistent, but he's also lacked weapons on the outside, and that's been addressed, so it's put up or shut up. Their rush game will have question marks too. With a great defense, and what's shaping up to be an average offense, they look like 8-8 or 9-7 to me.

Arizona. Also have a top 10 defense. Offense, there are question marks everywhere. OL, QB, RB, you name it. THeir WR corps also doesn't look that hot outside of Fitzgerald. This is the worst team in both divisions, and they'll still win 6 games. Playing STL and AZ will always be a headache because of their defenses.

Overall, the nod goes to the NFCW. All four teams have top 10 defenses. I'm not sure that's ever been done before. SEA and STL both have top 10 offenses, and you have an "average" team in STL that will be in literally every game. Our top two are better than their top two, and the 3rd team, STL ....well how do they stack up with either NO or CAR ? Seems even. I think both divisions are pretty even in a lot of ways, but NFCW is probably the deepest division talent wise.

 

[FlyingGreg]

Amazing how far the West has come in the last three seasons.

From "NFC Worst" to a power division.

I honestly can't see the West champ winning more than 12 games at the MAX...mostly because I think the inter-division play is going to be trench warfare.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Falcons are falling off this year. Saints win the division. Falcons will have to travel on wild card weekend.

 

[NinerBuff]

Falcons are falling off this year. Saints win the division. Falcons will have to travel on wild card weekend.

I disagree. I see them having one of the best Offences in the league and a mediocre defense (a la NE Patriots). I agree that the Saints will be there too, but I still have ATL above NO.

 

[FlyingGreg]

Falcons are falling off this year. Saints win the division. Falcons will have to travel on wild card weekend.

I disagree. I see them having one of the best Offences in the league and a mediocre defense (a la NE Patriots). I agree that the Saints will be there too, but I still have ATL above NO.

No offense, but it's OFFENSE not offence. This isn't European soccer.

 

[NinerBuff]

Falcons are falling off this year. Saints win the division. Falcons will have to travel on wild card weekend.

I disagree. I see them having one of the best Offences in the league and a mediocre defense (a la NE Patriots). I agree that the Saints will be there too, but I still have ATL above NO.

No offense, but it's OFFENSE not offence. This isn't European soccer.

Good catch

 

[RolandDeschain]

I disagree. I see them having one of the best Offences in the league and a mediocre defense (a la NE Patriots). I agree that the Saints will be there too, but I still have ATL above NO.

Ignore the shiny, pretty 13-3 record the Falcons had, and look at who they very nearly lost games to last year.

Won 30-28 against the Panthers, won 23-20 against the Raiders, they DID lose 27-31 at New Orleans, won 23-19 @ Arizona, won 24-23 against the Bucs, lost 20-30 @ Panthers, lost 17-22 @ Bucs.

All three of their losses were against teams that finished the year with losing records, and they had several close calls against bad or mediocre teams.

What makes you think they will lead an improved NFC South this year?

 

[NinerBuff]

I disagree. I see them having one of the best Offences in the league and a mediocre defense (a la NE Patriots). I agree that the Saints will be there too, but I still have ATL above NO.

Ignore the shiny, pretty 13-3 record the Falcons had, and look at who they very nearly lost games to last year.

Won 30-28 against the Panthers, won 23-20 against the Raiders, they DID lose 27-31 at New Orleans, won 23-19 @ Arizona, won 24-23 against the Bucs, lost 20-30 @ Panthers, lost 17-22 @ Bucs.

All three of their losses were against teams that finished the year with losing records, and they had several close calls against bad or mediocre teams.

What makes you think they will lead an improved NFC South this year?

Now that you mentioned some of their games, I do remember them struggling. I guess I'm basing it on their playoff performances, which were very good. Really, they chocked against both of us. They should have won easily against both the Seahawks and Niners, but their defense let us back into the games.

Also, I see Julio Jones + Roddy White as a pretty unstoppable combo. Where there really isn't any Saints players that scare you (other than Graham).

 

[RolandDeschain]

Also, I see Julio Jones + Roddy White as a pretty unstoppable combo. Where there really isn't any Saints players that scare you (other than Graham).

They weren't particularly unstoppable to us; Roddy and Julio combined for 135 yards and 1 TD against us in the playoffs. Certainly not a horrible day, but they didn't run wild, either. Unfortunately, our run defense didn't show up and the soft zone in the last 30 seconds of the game gave up a couple of huge receptions to get them in field goal range to win the game.

I was curious how the duo looked on a weekly basis. I'm surprised how many games they both disappeared in, or had middling/average stats in, considering their team went 13-3 and they have a pass-first offense. They are widely considered to be the best WR duo in the league, or at least second-best. I'm not so sure they're quite as elite as advertised, now.

They were certainly unstoppable when they played the 49ers, however. Way to give them the best performance of the year.

1: 195 yards, 2 tds
2: 116 yards, 1 td
3: 122 yards, 1 td
4: 199 yards, 2 tds
5: 162 yards, 1 td
6: 135 yards, 1 td
7: 161 yards, 1 td
8: 247 yards, 0 tds
9: 189 yards, 0 tds
10: 156 yards, 0 tds
11: 204 yards, 1 td
12: 68 yards, 0 tds
13: 183 yards, 2 tds
14: 90 yards, 2 tds
15: 224 yards, 3 tds
16: 98 yards, 0 tds

WC round: bye
Divisional round: 135 yards, 1 td
NFCCG: 282 yards, 2 tds

A lot of those games are rather pedestrian with several outright poor ones when you consider that they are combined totals for two elite receivers with a good QB that throws a lot. Ryan had more than 200 additional pass attempts over Russell Wilson, but Ryan's average completion was 7.7 yards, Wilson's was 7.9 (and that 7.9 is only that low because of the conservative crap the first half of the season; last half of the season, Wilson's average was over 9) and Roddy & Julio averaged 14.7 and 15.2 yards respectively, with Rice and Tate averaging 15.0 and 15.3, respectively. Rice and Tate also averaged more TDs per reception than either Roddy or Julio. 13.1 and 7.9 completions per TD for Roddy & Julio, compared to 7.1 and 6.4 receptions per TD for Rice and Tate.

Roddy and Julio got a ton of targets, but had lower yards per reception and TDs per reception as a duo than the Seahawks duo. Interesting, indeed... I will be curious to chart this same info after the 2013 season.

 

[NinerBuff]

Roland Deshain,

Great analysis! You may be right that my opinion is based greatly on our game against ATL. But that duo was more successful than any combo in the last 2 years...

It also may be prudent to include Gonzalez into the mix as well. With that said, the most effective trios in the game will probably be...

DEN: Thomas, Welker, Decker
ATL: Jones, White, Gonzalez
NO: Colston, Graham, Sproles

If the Niners had a healthy Crabtree, then they could potentially be in the mix, but without him, they have a mediocre WR at best.

 

[RolandDeschain]

IDK about you, Niner, but I'd take Harvin/Rice/Tate over Colston/Graham/Sproles and Thomas/Welker/Decker, but I'm a Seahawks fan. You tell me, which would you take of those three groupings?

 

[BigBay49]

Actually. As I reread this, I suspect Vegas may support my hypothesis. I'm about to go to sleep, so don't care to research, but from memory:

The 4 Super Bowl favorites from the NFC are
SanFran
Seattle
GreenBay
Atlanta

3of the4 reside in the WestandSouth. Would be interesting to look deeper into this. Am curious to read your thoughts. Good night.

Out of those 4 SF and SEA have already beaten the other two or almost beaten them. Seahawks would have their way with Atlanta @ Seattle. So NFC championship will likely be SEA @ SF or the other way around. I admit my 9ers probably lose @ Seattle or win @ Frisco. Basically whoever has the higher seed will make the superbowl.

Baltimore wont be back so it's either Denver or New England and either AFC team will get smoked so I predict the title comes back to the NFC West regardless.

 

[NinerBuff]

IDK about you, Niner, but I'd take Harvin/Rice/Tate over Colston/Graham/Sproles and Thomas/Welker/Decker, but I'm a Seahawks fan. You tell me, which would you take of those three groupings?

Rice and Tate don't scare me. Sproles was DEADLY against us in the playoff game and Graham is IMO the best TE in the game. Thomas looks like a true #1 and all the talk about Welker is he and Peyton are clicking. If I were rank guys that I would like the Niners to have...

1: Thomas - Big, Fast, Good Body Control, Excellent Redzone threat
2: Graham - see above, but a TE
3: Harvin - Excellent in space, great hands, and never drops the ball. In terms of fantasy value, he may be the highest because the other guys have good targets to go around
4: Decker - Good size, speed, and smart player.
5: Welker - Wild card, if he can be the player he was in NE, then he could be higher, but he's getting older
6: Colston - Good, solid WR with great hands
7: Rice - Good size, speed but not a guy that you have to know where he is at all times
8: Sproles - Matchup nightmare, excellent in space, (great for PPR fantasy leagues), but his size has injury worries
9: Tate: typical #2/#3 type WR. Has some sportscenter top plays, but generally not impressed.

If you're looking at just groupings I like Thomas/Welker/Decker, Colston/Graham/Sproles, then Harvin/Rice/Tate.