At this point, it's really impossible to even begin to judge this deal. Obviously, Harvin is a special talent.
But we don't know the total cost of this deal either. Outside of the draft picks, Harvin's deal is going to force us to cut ties with players we might otherwise keep when cap space becomes an issue in 2014 and 2015. From a simple math standpoint, we are paying Harvin about 9M a year more than a first round pick would have been. That 9M is going to have to be recovered in order to pay the likes of Thomas and Richard.
In addition, the precedent is now set. Guys like Tate who will be UFA next season is going to want a hefty raise. I'd say the Harvin deal kills any ability to get some type of hometown discount. It's entirely conceivable that we won't be able to resign him, and Harvin's contract is going to be the immediate cause for being unable to do so. If that should happen, then you may as well frame the trade as our first rounder this year, next year's third rounder and Tate. And that price could expand every year as other players added in 2011-12 come up for renewal and we don't have cap space to accomodate them.
The contract is going to force us to let guys walk. That's a cost we don't incur if we stuck with our first round pick and didn't trade for him.
Likewise, we don't know what the value of Harvin will bring and that won't be known until probably the end of next year. However if Harvin does come back and that infusion of ability allows us to go deep into the playoffs and maybe make a super bowl appearance, then I'd say it was well worth it.
It's a home run swing kind of deal. It's not the kind of opportunity that comes along very often. We just can't know the benefits and costs yet. So making a judgement now is just horribly premature.