Pre-training camp, 53-man-roster predictions

[hawknation2015]

Gwacham is very raw. They carried Benson Mayowa for a year only to see him continue to struggled to finish plays in his second preseason. That was a lesson learned. I also don't believe an injury to another player actually enhances a player's chances of making a final roster. Special teams is another avenue. Although, I am not inclined to view Scruggs and Gwacham in competition with one another.

That I find hard to believe. For example, if Will Blackmon was lost due to injury, Burley would go from being a player "living on the bubble" to a mortal lock.

If Doug Baldwin suffers a season-ending injury, you don't think that opens up an opportunity for another receiver to make the 53?

If Tarvaris Jackson or Russell Wilson are done for the year, you think we might roll with just one QB?

It's next man up.

I was referring to unproven developmental prospects and rookies on today's current 90 man roster prior to training camp. "Another player" being Ryan Robinson ...... not a known proven veteran. Assumed that was self evident. Clarifying that distinction now for everyone's benefit.

Still can't agree with it . . . if all three drafted rookie linemen are placed on IR, you don't think that would have an impact on whether other "unproven developmental prospects and rookies," such as Nowak or Davis, make the 53-man roster?

Injuries impact everyone on the totem poll, and this is particularly true of "unproven developmental prospects and rookies" on the bubble of making the roster.

 

[Jville]

^^^ I am not asking you to agree. Agreement is not the mandate of this forum.

When somebody goes on IR, a new player is signed to fill out the roster and compete. I see it as a dynamic roster reset. A revised combination of players. A revised combination of attributes and chemistry.

If you chose to believe in a totem pole model or some pecking order where participants move up a spot in some preconceived fashion, I certainly have no objection to your use of such a convention. After all, it is of your choosing.

Different views by different folks interacting on the same forum.

 

[hawknation2015]

^^^ I am not asking you to agree. Agreement is not the mandate of this forum.

When somebody goes on IR, a new player is signed to fill out the roster and compete. I see it as a dynamic roster reset. A revised combination of players. A revised combination of attributes and chemistry.

If you chose to believe in a totem pole model or some pecking order where participants move up a spot in some preconceived fashion, I certainly have no objection to your use of such a convention. After all, it is of your choosing.

Different views by different folks interacting on the same forum.

It's not automatic, of course, but it's also not true that it has no effect whatsoever on those players. If a player equal to or ahead of a bubble player on the depth chart gets injured, then that correspondingly increases the probability that the bubble player will make the 53-man roster. That's particularly true at positions like WR and DL that typically require a lot of rotation.

It even has an incidental effect on these bubble players at other positions. Let's say you are the 54th best player on the roster at a position that is not already well stocked, and someone ahead of you, who would have otherwise made the roster, gets hurt (i.e. Ryan Robinson); that correspondingly increases the probability that this bubble player will be selected as the replacement.

 

[Jville]

^^^ I am not asking you to agree. Agreement is not the mandate of this forum.

When somebody goes on IR, a new player is signed to fill out the roster and compete. I see it as a dynamic roster reset. A revised combination of players. A revised combination of attributes and chemistry.

If you chose to believe in a totem pole model or some pecking order where participants move up a spot in some preconceived fashion, I certainly have no objection to your use of such a convention. After all, it is of your choosing.

Different views by different folks interacting on the same forum.

It's not automatic, of course, but it's also not true that it has no effect whatsoever on those players. If a player equal to or ahead of a bubble player on the depth chart gets injured, then that correspondingly increases the probability that the bubble player will make the 53-man roster.

Sounds like a neat and tidy model.

 

[hawknation2015]

^^^ I am not asking you to agree. Agreement is not the mandate of this forum.

When somebody goes on IR, a new player is signed to fill out the roster and compete. I see it as a dynamic roster reset. A revised combination of players. A revised combination of attributes and chemistry.

If you chose to believe in a totem pole model or some pecking order where participants move up a spot in some preconceived fashion, I certainly have no objection to your use of such a convention. After all, it is of your choosing.

Different views by different folks interacting on the same forum.

It's not automatic, of course, but it's also not true that it has no effect whatsoever on those players. If a player equal to or ahead of a bubble player on the depth chart gets injured, then that correspondingly increases the probability that the bubble player will make the 53-man roster.

Sounds like a neat and tidy model.

Let's put it into practice. What are the practical effects of Robinson's absence on Gwacham's likelihood of making the roster? He received more reps at LEO in OTAs than he might have otherwise if Robinson had been playing ahead of him. With those additional reps, he generated several pressures and sacks. Those additional opportunities could extend into training camp now that there is one less player ahead of him to develop at the position. Those same opportunities likely extend to special teams since Gwacham and Robinson have similar athleticism. Does that mean he automatically makes the 53-man roster? Of course not, whether Gwacham seizes those opportunities is anyone's guess. The point is his probability of doing so has obviously increased. Perhaps it is still below 50%, but that doesn't mean his chances have been totally unaffected, as you claimed.

Let's say Nowak goes down next. Are you saying Sokoli's chances of making the 53-man roster would be totally unaffected by that injury?

This is all a long-winded way of saying NEXT MAN UP.

 

[Jville]

^^^ Sounds like a neat and tidy model.

 

[hawknation2015]

^^^ Sounds like a neat and tidy model.

Good job answering the question. :sarcasm_off:

 

[Jville]

^^^ Sounds like a neat and tidy model.

Good job answering the question. :sarcasm_off:

It's your question embedded in the framework of your model.

 

[hawknation2015]

I also don't believe an injury to another player actually enhances a player's chances of making a final roster.

I was referring to unproven developmental prospects and rookies on today's current 90 man roster prior to training camp. "Another player" being Ryan Robinson ...... not a known proven veteran. Assumed that was self evident. Clarifying that distinction now for everyone's benefit.

Another interesting wrinkle here is that you concede above that if the injured player is a "proven veteran," then a player's chances to make the roster may be enhanced. I say that is interesting because I wonder why you draw the line at "proven veterans."

I would not consider Christine Michael a proven veteran. If Michael were to become injured, Rawls' opportunity to make the roster would certainly be enhanced, as we only tend to carry three, sometimes four, RBs on the 53-man roster. Conversely, Michael's chance to make the 53-man roster may be slightly improved if Rawls became injured. Rawls is definitely not a proven veteran.

Contingency planning is part of competition.

 

[Jville]

^^^ I see your editing fabricates an implied concession to wrinkle your frame work to suite your purpose.

But it matters not, for concluding with a consensuses is not a forum mandate.

 

[hawknation2015]

I also don't believe an injury to another player actually enhances a player's chances of making a final roster.

I was referring to unproven developmental prospects and rookies on today's current 90 man roster prior to training camp. "Another player" being Ryan Robinson ...... not a known proven veteran. Assumed that was self evident. Clarifying that distinction now for everyone's benefit.

^^^ I see your editing fabricates an implied concession to wrinkle your frame work to suite your purpose.

But it matters not, for concluding with a consensuses is not a forum mandate.

Does that mean you do not believe an injury to another player actually enhances a player's chances of making a final roster, regardless of whether the injured player is a proven veteran or unproven developmental prospect/rookie? Now I am just trying to understand what you believe to be true.

I.e. If Thurmond became injured, as discussed earlier, would that not increase the likelihood of Burley making the roster?

 

[Fade]

I keep a projected 53 man roster that I update every month or so during the offseason, but It ends up looking so different when I look back after I see the first 2 pre-season games. Injuries will happen too.

For this post I will just go with my sleepers.

RB Thomas Rawls (R) - Powerful runner with quick feet. Sounds familiar.
FB Brandon Cottom (R) - 265 lb FB with speed. (probably practice squad for a year.)
TE Luke Willson - Sleeper? Yes actually if he is matched up w/linebackers due to Graham drawing coverage.
OL Mark Glowinski (R) - I heard he was playing some RT in OTAs I think he could start at LG or RT.

DE Demarcus Dobbs - I just like him. He is seriously strong against the run though.
LB Kevin Pierre-Louis - Might be better than KJ right now. He flashed a lot in the little PT he had last year.
LB Eric Pinkins - Moved to Will much closer to the position he played in college. (Rover)
CB Tye Smith (R) - JS seemed really hyped, more than usual in the post draft interview when discussing him.
SS Ryan Murphy (R) - He can't catch, that's his only flaw. Fast & Physical SS. LOB material for sure.
FS Triston Wade (R) - Poor man's E.T. Larry Coker was his HC. The guy who helped develop Ed Reed, and Sean Taylor at Miami.

 

[Jville]

Does that mean you do not believe an injury to another player actually enhances a player's chances of making a final roster, regardless of whether the injured player is a proven veteran or unproven developmental prospect/rookie? Now I am just trying to understand what you believe to be true.

I.e. If Thurmond became injured, as discussed earlier, would that not increase the likelihood of Burley making the roster?

What triggered all of this was an opinion that .......... "I think picking Obam Gwacham to make the final roster may be a bit premature."

In later responses, I meant to convey that because Gwacham is so raw, I do not believe the injury to Ryan Robinson has much bearing on what Gwacham must accomplish. He will either be up to speed by opening day and on board or he won't.

No rule of thumb. No hard or fast model of how things work. Just an opinion about a very raw project.

 

[hawknation2015]

Does that mean you do not believe an injury to another player actually enhances a player's chances of making a final roster, regardless of whether the injured player is a proven veteran or unproven developmental prospect/rookie? Now I am just trying to understand what you believe to be true.

I.e. If Thurmond became injured, as discussed earlier, would that not increase the likelihood of Burley making the roster?

What triggered all of this was an opinion that .......... "I think picking Obam Gwacham to make the final roster may be a bit premature."

In later responses, I meant to convey that because Gwacham is so raw, I do not believe the injury to Ryan Robinson has much bearing on what Gwacham must accomplish. He will either be up to speed by opening day and on board or he won't.

No rule of thumb. No hard or fast model of how things work. Just an opinion about a very raw project.

I can get on board with that, since it allows for some potential that Gwacham will step through the door that has been opened to seize a role that might have otherwise gone to Robinson. It may very well not happen, but I think we both hope that it will. As we saw in the Super Bowl after Avril left with a concussion, it's important to have these sort of contingency options.

 

[hawknation2015]

Good topic. Before anyone says "it's too early", I always like stuff like this because it's really just a snapshot in time of what we thought in that moment.

Last year, in REAL GAMES, Lewis was a better center than LMJ and it wasn't even that close. So I'd be pretty upset if they chose LMJ over him based purely on some practices and 'experience'. But hey, it wouldn't be the 1st time Cable has favored an inferior player. Or the 2nd, or 3rd... It would also be pretty silly I think to carry Sokoli as a #2 center unless he blows us away. But is it believable? Totally.

I agree about Lewis, though he was not as good in his first two starts as he was in his final too, which is to be expected for a lineman playing the first snaps of his career. He's a decent player, but his lack of foot speed is really holding him back from being more than that.

As far as Jeanpierre goes, he admittedly did not play well last year while battling back from a serious neck injury that was supposed to keep him out of action for months. His athleticism and experience is just better than Lewis's. But if he does start this year, I think it will only be as a placeholder until Nowak or Sokoli take hold of the position.

It's quite possible that neither veteran makes the 53 if Nowak and Sokoli progress as much as we hope they do.

 

[Exittium]

Sheesh thanks people, I checked this thread to see what other rosters posters have came up with.. And its been derailed, come on guys if you gunna get in a pissing match, do it in PMs or the shack. So lets get back on topic please. :thirishdrinkers:

 

[titan3131]

I predict that dobs is upset by ty Mcgill.

 

[CalgaryHawk]

Here's my stab at it, if I get 50 out of 53 I'd call that a successful prediction:

Quarterbacks (2) -- Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson

Running backs (3) – Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin, Thomas Rawls
Traded: Christine Michael

Fullback (1) – Derrick Coleman

Wide receivers (5) – Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Chris Matthews, Kevin Norwood
PUP: Paul Richardson
Practice Squad Candidates: B.J. Daniels, Douglas McNeil, Kasen Williams

Tight ends (4) – Jimmy Graham, Luke Willson, Anthony McCoy, Cooper Helfet

Offensive linemen (10) – Russell Okung, Justin Britt, J.R. Sweezy, Alvin Bailey, Lemuel Jeanpierre, Garry Gilliam, Mark Glowinski, Terry Poole, Drew Nowak, Jesse Davis
Practice Squad Candidates: Kristjan Sokoli, Keavon Milton, Kona Schwenke, Lewis (if eligible)

Defensive linemen (9) – Brandon Mebane, Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Frank Clark, Jordan Hill, Ahtyba Rubin, Cassius Marsh, Demarcus Dobbs, Greg Scruggs
Release: Tony McDaniel (cap reasons)
Practice Squad Candidates: Obum Gwacham, David King, Jimmy Staten, Jesse Williams (if eligible), T.Y. McGill, Julius Warmsley

Linebackers (6) – Bobby Wagner, Bruce Irvin, K.J. Wright, Kevin Pierre-Louis, Mike Morgan, Eric Pinkins

Cornerbacks (6) – Richard Sherman, Cary Williams, Will Blackmon, Tye Smith, Marcus Burley, Tharold Simon
PUP: Jeremy Lane

Safeties (4) -- Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, DeShawn Shead, Ryan Murphy
Practice Squad Candidates: Triston Wade, Dion Bailey, Ronald Martin, Keenan Lambert, Steve Terrell

Kicker (1) -- Steven Hauschka

Punter/Holder (1) -- Jon Ryan

Deep snapper (1) -- Clint Gresham

If McCoy or another player on this roster gets injured during training camp, then my next guys up to take the last spot are: Tukuafu, BJ Daniels, D'Anthony Smith, Dion Baily, Brock Coyle, Jesse Williams, Patrick Lewis

 

[hawknation2015]

Here's my stab at it, if I get 50 out of 53 I'd call that a successful prediction:

Quarterbacks (2) -- Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson

Running backs (3) – Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin, Thomas Rawls
Traded: Christine Michael

Fullback (1) – Derrick Coleman

Wide receivers (5) – Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, Chris Matthews, Kevin Norwood
PUP: Paul Richardson
Practice Squad Candidates: B.J. Daniels, Douglas McNeil, Kasen Williams

Tight ends (4) – Jimmy Graham, Luke Willson, Anthony McCoy, Cooper Helfet

Offensive linemen (10) – Russell Okung, Justin Britt, J.R. Sweezy, Alvin Bailey, Lemuel Jeanpierre, Garry Gilliam, Mark Glowinski, Terry Poole, Drew Nowak, Jesse Davis
Practice Squad Candidates: Kristjan Sokoli, Keavon Milton, Kona Schwenke, Lewis (if eligible)

Defensive linemen (9) – Brandon Mebane, Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Frank Clark, Jordan Hill, Ahtyba Rubin, Cassius Marsh, Demarcus Dobbs, Greg Scruggs
Release: Tony McDaniel (cap reasons)
Practice Squad Candidates: Obum Gwacham, David King, Jimmy Staten, Jesse Williams (if eligible), T.Y. McGill, Julius Warmsley

Linebackers (6) – Bobby Wagner, Bruce Irvin, K.J. Wright, Kevin Pierre-Louis, Mike Morgan, Eric Pinkins

Cornerbacks (6) – Richard Sherman, Cary Williams, Will Blackmon, Tye Smith, Marcus Burley, Tharold Simon
PUP: Jeremy Lane

Safeties (4) -- Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, DeShawn Shead, Ryan Murphy
Practice Squad Candidates: Triston Wade, Dion Bailey, Ronald Martin, Keenan Lambert, Steve Terrell

Kicker (1) -- Steven Hauschka

Punter/Holder (1) -- Jon Ryan

Deep snapper (1) -- Clint Gresham

If McCoy or another player on this roster gets injured during training camp, then my next guys up to take the last spot are: Tukuafu, BJ Daniels, D'Anthony Smith, Dion Baily, Brock Coyle, Jesse Williams, Patrick Lewis

That looks like a reasonable prediction. I actually like yours better than my original take, except I might replace Murphy with Bailey.

 

[SirTed]

Is the consensus that Derrick Coleman is better than Tukuafu(sp)?

This sort of surprises me. To my eye, Tukuafu is a higher impact blocker than Coleman, who seems to just get in people's way all the time. Granted, I don't know much about FB play - but that's what my eyes tell me.

I could see Coleman being the better receiving threat, is that a large factor in opinions?