Predict Geno's 2022 Stat Line

[Lagartixa]

Subtract the stats from the 1-16 Jaguars game.

This is like when one frequent poster here on .NET (with a photo of Wilson as his avatar) tells us that if you just subtract Wilson's bad games, his stats are amazing!

I'm sure the Bills, a genuine title contender both last year and this year, would have loved for results against the Jaguars not to count, because right after the Seahawks beat the Jaguars convincingly in Jacksonville (and with Smith doing things against them that no other quarterback did, including several that I'd agree are better players than Smith), the Jaguars went to Buffalo and beat the Bills.

I don't think Smith is a good QB, but I also don't get why people refuse to give him credit for playing better against the Jaguars than any other QB did. Smith's ceiling is pretty low, but his floor is higher than a lot of Wilson fans are willing to admit, for reasons that, I have to admit, escape me.

Also, there was no such thing as the 1-16 Jaguars. The Jaguars beat the Dolphins, the Bills, and the Colts, and it wasn't the Jaguars against those three teams in a single game.

 

[Lagartixa]

5800 yards passing
1000 yds rushing
52 td/4 int
Pro bowler
Super Bowl Champion

We can dream right?

(Boldface and red emphasis is mine)

An expert in the field is saying you may have gone too far here.

 

[themunn]

PFF had Geno as 4th best QB this preseason, with poor performance hampered by drops

One Statistic Confirms Seahawks QB Geno Smith Played Far Better Than Preseason Numbers Suggest - Sports Illustrated Seattle Seahawks News, Analysis and More

While fans will be quick to point to the lack of scoring drives as a prime reason against Smith winning Seattle's starting job, that simply isn't a fair assessment when considering all of the facts.

www.si.com

More drops in 3 games this preseason than in entirety of 2021 season

The Seahawks dropped more passes in the preseason than they did in all of 2021

A strong argument could be made that no quarterback has been impacted by drops during the preseason than Geno Smith. Pro Football Focus indicates that 7 of his passes have been dropped through...

www.fieldgulls.com

Of players who dropped a pass in preseason, only Dissly (1), Hart (1) and Young (2) made the 53.

So plenty reason to believe Smith will be better in regular season than preseason.

 

[hawkfan68]

This is like when one frequent poster here on .NET (with a photo of Wilson as his avatar) tells us that if you just subtract Wilson's bad games, his stats are amazing!

I'm sure the Bills, a genuine title contender both last year and this year, would have loved for results against the Jaguars not to count, because right after the Seahawks beat the Jaguars convincingly in Jacksonville (and with Smith doing things against them that no other quarterback did, including several that I'd agree are better players than Smith), the Jaguars went to Buffalo and beat the Bills.

I don't think Smith is a good QB, but I also don't get why people refuse to give him credit for playing better against the Jaguars than any other QB did. Smith's ceiling is pretty low, but his floor is higher than a lot of Wilson fans are willing to admit, for reasons that, I have to admit, escape me.

Also, there was no such thing as the 1-16 Jaguars. The Jaguars beat the Dolphins, the Bills, and the Colts, and it wasn't the Jaguars against those three teams in a single game.

The game was played in Seattle not Jacksonville. However, you do make valid points in your post. https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401326446

 

[Titus Pullo]

Trask played better than Brady this preseason. Brandon Allen played better than Burrow this preseason. Shane Buechele played better than Mahomes this preseason. What can we extrapolate from this? Absolutely nothing.

 

[themunn]

Trask played better than Brady this preseason. Brandon Allen played better than Burrow this preseason. Shane Buechele played better than Mahomes this preseason. What can we extrapolate from this? Absolutely nothing.

Exactly - maybe we're better off extrapolating from Geno's actual starts, where he was a servicable QB with a 100+ QB rating and 5-1 TD to int ratio last season.

This will be his first season as a starter since 2014. Maybe he'll have a Rich Gannon or Alex Smith like revival.
It took Smith 10 years before he threw 20 TDs in a single season. Gannon went to Oakland in year 13 of his career and promptly named All Pro and even MVP.

I'm not saying that's where Geno Smith will lie, but he started 3 games last year with Alex Collins as his starting RB - I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt through the first half of the season to see if he can lead the team the way the coaches think he can.

 

[Titus Pullo]

Exactly - maybe we're better off extrapolating from Geno's actual starts, where he was a servicable QB with a 100+ QB rating and 5-1 TD to int ratio last season.

This will be his first season as a starter since 2014. Maybe he'll have a Rich Gannon or Alex Smith like revival.
It took Smith 10 years before he threw 20 TDs in a single season. Gannon went to Oakland in year 13 of his career and promptly named All Pro and even MVP.

I'm not saying that's where Geno Smith will lie, but he started 3 games last year with Alex Collins as his starting RB - I'm prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt through the first half of the season to see if he can lead the team the way the coaches think he can.

Geno is the starter.....However, how many games do we give him to prove he's better?

 

[SonicHawk]

Geno is the starter.....However, how many games do we give him to prove he's better?

He's already better.

The real question is, how bad does Geno have to play for Lock to get a chance to prove that he isn't trash?

 

[ivotuk]

Rams:
we were down 9 points when Geno took over, we lost by 10 points.
Geno led a most exciting 98 yards drive for a TD to close the gap. We were driving to take the lead when Lockett was either push or slipped, the INT was unfortunate, the throw was an anticipatory throw down the middle, and didn't cause the INT.

Steelers:
we lost by 3 points in OT,
Geno's first start in gosh 7 years?
23/32, 165 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, his fumble was untimely.

Saints:
We lost again by 3 points when our kicker missed 2 kicks?
Geno was 12/24, 167 yards, 1 TD/0 int.
I don't think Geno cost us the game, do you?

Jaguar: we won.

Geno didn't win us lots of games, but he didn't embarrass himself or the team. His 2021 season grade of 70.3 was the same as Wilson's 2021 grade.

Very well done! Thank you for taking the time! I know I wouldn't have even thought of that.

I'm cautiously optimistic. Why? Because our OLine is going to be damn good! Our Running Game is going to be Elite, making life easy for Geno. Our Defense is going to be Very Good! I Love Clint Hurtt. Dude has some talent to work with! And the play calling will be night and day compared to Kenny Norton.

Love Norton, but Linebacker Coach is his ceiling. We saw that for years, and Jack Del Rio confirmed him by hiring Ken for the Raider's DC, then taking the DC job away, teaching Norton some strategy, and giving it back, then he was DONE.

But Pete, loyal friend that he is, hired Ken as DC. We saw the record breaking disaster of a defense at the beginning of each year. I'm pretty sure Pete put his foot down later in the season, but Norton refused to play the young guys! So there was no transition when players were injured, just throw in a young, inexperienced player.

So, I think Geno is going to have 2 Elite Receivers + 2 Damn Good TEs, a favorable Run Offense and Defense to make life easier for him. Something he's never had before.

I expect 3,400 yards, 265 Passing YPG, 62% Completion, 26 TDs to 8 INTs, 600 Yards Rushing and go 10 - 7, with our Run Game and Defense just killing some really good teams.

I was wondering how I might view this season, would I lose interest because of Geno at QB, would I be back and forth between interest and disinterest, or would i be excited to watch?

Then I remembered our TJack year and how much I rooted for the guy, and realized that Geno is better than TJack, and will have a better team around him. PLUS, Pete has "slightly" matured since then and is less prone to throw ridiculous challenge flags, or go for it in bad 4th down situations.

I think this team is going to be surprisingly good. Why? Pete's philosophy. Great Defense, Great Run Game, Metcalf/Lockett bombs.

 

[Titus Pullo]

Rams:
we were down 9 points when Geno took over, we lost by 10 points.
Geno led a most exciting 98 yards drive for a TD to close the gap. We were driving to take the lead when Lockett was either push or slipped, the INT was unfortunate, the throw was an anticipatory throw down the middle, and didn't cause the INT.

Steelers:
we lost by 3 points in OT,
Geno's first start in gosh 7 years?
23/32, 165 yards, 1 TD/0 INT, his fumble was untimely.

Saints:
We lost again by 3 points when our kicker missed 2 kicks?
Geno was 12/24, 167 yards, 1 TD/0 int.
I don't think Geno cost us the game, do you?

Jaguar: we won.

Geno didn't win us lots of games, but he didn't embarrass himself or the team. His 2021 season grade of 70.3 was the same as Wilson's 2021 grade.

Saints Summary: https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap?gameId=401326435
Wilson's replacement, Geno Smith, took several sacks in situations where he had to get the ball out of his hands. Jason Myers missed a pair of field goal attempts, one of which became decidedly longer because of a sack taken by Smith.

 

[themunn]

Geno is the starter.....However, how many games do we give him to prove he's better?

You can't really put a number on it - what if he storms out of the gates in games 1 & 2 then looks terrible in 3 and 4?
Or looks terrible in games 1 & 2, great in 3 and 4, terrible in 5, do you bench him then?
As long as he looks better than Lock in practice he's got to stay the starter - chopping and changing rarely works to the team's benefit

Saints Summary: https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap?gameId=401326435
Wilson's replacement, Geno Smith, took several sacks in situations where he had to get the ball out of his hands. Jason Myers missed a pair of field goal attempts, one of which became decidedly longer because of a sack taken by Smith.

Alex Collins was starting RB and ran for 35 yards on 16 carries.

The result was that Geno faced 9 3rd downs (and another 3rd and 1 which Collins was stopped for no gain), only 2 of which were for 5 yards or less (he converted them both) and 5 were more than 10 yards. If he was behind the running game that Wilson had at end of season where Penny went off, who knows how he would have looked. Hopefully we find out this year.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Saints Summary: https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap?gameId=401326435
Wilson's replacement, Geno Smith, took several sacks in situations where he had to get the ball out of his hands. Jason Myers missed a pair of field goal attempts, one of which became decidedly longer because of a sack taken by Smith.

Why the continuous attacks on Geno? What is the agenda here?

First toffee posts Geno's total stats last year expanded over a full season, and you ask that a specific game be removed. Every player plays against good teams and bad teams. Should we remove every player's stats against bad teams? How about removing stats against bad teams and good teams and only counting stats against average teams?

Second toffee posts the game results, game situation, and game stats for Geno last season, basically the big picture larger context view, and you ask to look at specific plays that went poorly rather than evaluating based on the big picture (the big picture being opponent, score, overall stats, etc.). Every player has good plays and bad plays. Should we cherrypick the bad plays and evaluate every player based on those plays?

In your posts, you are holding Geno to a different standard than you are holding other players to (Lock in particular). Why?

 

[Titus Pullo]

Why the continuous attacks on Geno? What is the agenda here?

First toffee posts Geno's total stats last year expanded over a full season, and you ask that a specific game be removed. Every player plays against good teams and bad teams. Should we remove every player's stats against bad teams? How about removing stats against bad teams and good teams and only counting stats against average teams?

Second toffee posts the game results, game situation, and game stats for Geno last season, basically the big picture larger context view, and you ask to look at specific plays that went poorly rather than evaluating based on the big picture (the big picture being opponent, score, overall stats, etc.). Every player has good plays and bad plays. Should we cherrypick the bad plays and evaluate every player based on those plays?

In your posts, you are holding Geno to a different standard than you are holding other players to (Lock in particular). Why?

1. Geno was said to have turned a corner based off of the games last year and the partial preseason games this year.
2. Lock is a newb who just learned a new system in a few weeks.
3. Some people here will find any excuse to justify Geno's crappy play.

 

[flv2]

He's already better.

The real question is, how bad does Geno have to play for Lock to get a chance to prove that he isn't trash?

The back-up has to demonstrate quality play during practice. If he doesn't then the starter will stay in there even if he's playing badly.

 

[SeaChase]

I predict that his stat line will be so bad that Lock will start by week 6.

 

[Rock_the_Hawk]

Very well done! Thank you for taking the time! I know I wouldn't have even thought of that.

I'm cautiously optimistic. Why? Because our OLine is going to be damn good! Our Running Game is going to be Elite, making life easy for Geno. Our Defense is going to be Very Good! I Love Clint Hurtt. Dude has some talent to work with! And the play calling will be night and day compared to Kenny Norton.

Love Norton, but Linebacker Coach is his ceiling. We saw that for years, and Jack Del Rio confirmed him by hiring Ken for the Raider's DC, then taking the DC job away, teaching Norton some strategy, and giving it back, then he was DONE.

But Pete, loyal friend that he is, hired Ken as DC. We saw the record breaking disaster of a defense at the beginning of each year. I'm pretty sure Pete put his foot down later in the season, but Norton refused to play the young guys! So there was no transition when players were injured, just throw in a young, inexperienced player.

So, I think Geno is going to have 2 Elite Receivers + 2 Damn Good TEs, a favorable Run Offense and Defense to make life easier for him. Something he's never had before.

I expect 3,400 yards, 265 Passing YPG, 62% Completion, 26 TDs to 8 INTs, 600 Yards Rushing and go 10 - 7, with our Run Game and Defense just killing some really good teams.

I was wondering how I might view this season, would I lose interest because of Geno at QB, would I be back and forth between interest and disinterest, or would i be excited to watch?

Then I remembered our TJack year and how much I rooted for the guy, and realized that Geno is better than TJack, and will have a better team around him. PLUS, Pete has "slightly" matured since then and is less prone to throw ridiculous challenge flags, or go for it in bad 4th down situations.

I think this team is going to be surprisingly good. Why? Pete's philosophy. Great Defense, Great Run Game, Metcalf/Lockett bombs.

I am cautiously optimistic.... they are starting a lot of young guys and these guys all have talent but they are going to take their lumps so be patient... know that its going to take some games for this team to settle in. but mark my words carroll will have these guys playing well at some point this year.. its not impossible but i dont expect to see a fast start. it could happen but im expecting a slow start. so be patient, maybe they go 2-4, maybe worse to start the season. Just sayin guys. Carroll is famous for bringing his teams on late.

 

[toffee]

Why the continuous attacks on Geno? What is the agenda here?

First toffee posts Geno's total stats last year expanded over a full season, and you ask that a specific game be removed. Every player plays against good teams and bad teams. Should we remove every player's stats against bad teams? How about removing stats against bad teams and good teams and only counting stats against average teams?

Second toffee posts the game results, game situation, and game stats for Geno last season, basically the big picture larger context view, and you ask to look at specific plays that went poorly rather than evaluating based on the big picture (the big picture being opponent, score, overall stats, etc.). Every player has good plays and bad plays. Should we cherrypick the bad plays and evaluate every player based on those plays?

In your posts, you are holding Geno to a different standard than you are holding other players to (Lock in particular). Why?

In any given game, QB made good and bad plays. Perfect games? sure, but not every game. Joe Montana in his interview emphasized good QBs needed the ability to compartmentalize failures (by himself or teammates), come right back with confidence to make live another play. Russell Wilson was really good with that, Montana himself of course.

As for having the Jag game removed, the KEY thing for a good team and good QB is not to play down to your components level. Feast, ability to feast on bad team is essential mental setup, I think some call it the killer instinct, when it comes to football, a must have.

The Steelers and Saints game of last season could be a prelude to this season, defense played well enough to keep the games close, offense struggled a bit but DID NOT GAVE THE GAME AWAY with turnovers etc., In the end, we could and should have be 1-1 in those two.

Bill Walsh infamously said that Steve deBerg: "just good enough to get you beat." Walsh pulled DeBerg out of many easy plays/opportunity for Montana to gain confidence. Could Geno be the second coming of deBerg? Possible, but you wouldn't compare Lock to Montana, would you?

Interestingly, the college careers of Lock vs Montana, Montana wasn't anyone pedigree, he didn't quite excel in his measurables, or had private coaching. Joe did, which caught Walsh's eyes, played bigger when lights were on him. Big games, tight games, Joe suddenly had that "S" on his chest, became cooler, more settled, or "poised under pressure" as Walsh called it. Russell Wilson had that too, and we shall miss that part of his game, heck I already am. Lock never had that, or just the opposite.

 

[DJrmb]

3400, 67%, 24TD 10Int
200 rushing 2TD

 

[Sports Hernia]

PFF had Geno as 4th best QB this preseason, with poor performance hampered by drops

One Statistic Confirms Seahawks QB Geno Smith Played Far Better Than Preseason Numbers Suggest - Sports Illustrated Seattle Seahawks News, Analysis and More

While fans will be quick to point to the lack of scoring drives as a prime reason against Smith winning Seattle's starting job, that simply isn't a fair assessment when considering all of the facts.

www.si.com

More drops in 3 games this preseason than in entirety of 2021 season

The Seahawks dropped more passes in the preseason than they did in all of 2021

A strong argument could be made that no quarterback has been impacted by drops during the preseason than Geno Smith. Pro Football Focus indicates that 7 of his passes have been dropped through...

www.fieldgulls.com

Of players who dropped a pass in preseason, only Dissly (1), Hart (1) and Young (2) made the 53.

So plenty reason to believe Smith will be better in regular season than preseason.

First mistake is believing PFF is an accurate vehicle for stats. It’s not.

 

[DynoHawk]

1600 Yards, 54%, 11 Tds, 13 INT. 0 Rushing TDs

Looks lean, but its only for 10 games played