Probabilities of our first pick

[Bear-Hawk]

Daniel Jeremiah’s mock:
1. Young
2. stroud
3. Anderson
4. Richardson
5. Carter

If the Cards trade down, then the Seahawks get Anderson. If Levis slips in, that upsets the ordering. I can also see Wilson, if Seahawks don’t want to take the risk on Carter, but my hunch is that Jeremiah has it correct.

 

[sutz]

75% of probabilities posted on the web are made up as the poster is typing.

 

[Ozzy]

Staton who has a few connections said Carter will not be drafted at #5 for reasons I don't feel is fair to Carter to list but I will take him at his word. I doubt Anderson makes it to Seattle because he is a perfect fit for AZ and the drop off from him to Wilson is big enough that it makes sense to just stay put and get your guy. So for me I think the most likely is:

1. 30% Trade down to someone who loves Richardson like Oakland
2. 30% John falls in love with Richardson
3. 10% Young falls because of his size
4. Levis
5. I'm at a loss after that. I think Wilson at #5 is a reach and not a good fit for the system. Carter appears to be off many teams boards and John has said multiple times this off season they will not move off their current approach of factoring it in. It's possible he feels totally fine about Carter and is just trying to throw everyone off so I guess I would put Carter here after all at like 5%

 

[Own The West]

100% Anderson if he’s there.
else
70% Carter
30% Trade down

 

[TeamoftheCentury]

This draft is so deep at RB.

But, I'd be in favor of drafting one of the top RBs available. I personally like Zach Charbonnet but Robinson is obviously the top guy.

 

[chrispy]

There's not a whole lot of sense in trying to predict but....

I'd like to see Anderson as a Seahawk, but it's hard to think of a valid reason AZ doesn't pick him up. Sure, we can create a scenario where that happens, but, to me, it's just wishful thinking.

Assuming he's not there, JS will have a trade partner because there are still QB-needy teams and worthy-QBs . He'll just have to decide how far back he's willing to go. That depends on how he ranks that 2nd tier of DL/Edge. My gut tells me there are enough of them that he'll move back (probably farther than anyone expects) and pick up a '24 1st. At his first pick, he'll take his BPA DL/Edge and it will be a consensus "reach" by everyone that has an opinion. ...a Malik McDowell, Bruce Irvin guy that no one has ranked above "end of first round, beginning of second".

 

[TheLegendOfBoom]

But, I'd be in favor of drafting one of the top RBs available. I personally like Zach Charbonnet but Robinson is obviously the top guy.

How about Gibbs from Alabama?

Gibbs is capable of running between the tackles and also catching the ball on a wheel route, or, can be lined up in the slot as well.

I’d welcome Gibbs as well.

 

[rjdriver]

I currently been wanting Seattle to draft Bijan Robinson, so my preference is to trade down.

I think a Robinson and Walker tandem would be insane!

It would need to be insane considering we would have to dominate TOP to keep our defensive line off the field.

Bijan is a bad ass to be sure, but man it would be hard not to address the D line with a very early pick.

Of course, if we don't pick him too early and get some capital to address the D line early, then I could get on board.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

60 percent of the time, it works.............every time.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

How many of these "who do we draft at 5" threads do we need?

948

 

[James in PA]

There's not a whole lot of sense in trying to predict but....

I'd like to see Anderson as a Seahawk, but it's hard to think of a valid reason AZ doesn't pick him up. Sure, we can create a scenario where that happens, but, to me, it's just wishful thinking.

I disagree. I think the chances of Arizona trading the pick are greater than them staying put. They have too many holes to fill. I think they'd love to trade down. That's why I currently have Anderson as the most likely pick for Seattle.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I disagree. I think the chances of Arizona trading the pick are greater than them staying put. They have too many holes to fill. I think they'd love to trade down. That's why I currently have Anderson as the most likely pick for Seattle.

Even if Arizona trades out, you still have to hope the Colts pick Levis, and that's not a sure thing either.

Only way we get Anderson is if all four QB's go 1-4.

Possible, but still not likely.

 

[scutterhawk]

This draft is so deep at RB.

Not with the desirables & upsides that BR brings to the position.

 

[NoGain]

I've been swayed of late about Arizona's #3 pick. My guess as I'm typing now is that there's abouts a 75% chance that Arizona trades down from the #3 spot. It makes too much sense. There are 3-4 teams within tradeable range below them that (even if they don't admit it) would like a stab at a potential long term solution at the QB position. There are 4 QB's near the top of the draft board. Arizona is in at least a short term rebuild phase when draft capital is most coveted.

Some team is likely to make them an offer that just makes too much sense for them to refuse between now and when they're on the clock later this month.

 

[CactusJack]

Not with the desirables & upsides that BR brings to the position.

You're right. But there are a number of guys who would compliment Walker. Roschon Johnson could be had in like the 3rd or 4th round. His ypc we're almost identical to Bijan's in that offense.

 

[Jegpeg]

The media guys tend to overrate QBs in the draft even more than HCs/GMs. Richardson and Levis are not top 4 picks. My prediction is:
1. Panthers: Stroud
2. Texans: Young
3. Cards: Anderson
4. Colts: Gonzales

The proble for us is there is then a big drop off so it leaves us:
a) Take a punt on Carter
b) Reach for a QB
c) Reach for Wilson
d) Trade down to someone who wants to do one of the above

I think Pete and John would trade down if they can get a decent deal but no idea what they will do if they can't.

 

[NoGain]

The media guys tend to overrate QBs in the draft even more than HCs/GMs. Richardson and Levis are not top 4 picks. My prediction is:

I would take the other side of this statement. I think the media in aggregate, by a good margin, underestimates how high coaches and GM's will value the top QB's in any given year. Take last year for example. With the exception of Pickett, the top ranked QB's went way later than the overall media anticipated. The aggregate media were also way behind where many recent QB's were valued by teams. This is the case with Levis and Richardson this year, and QB's like Mahomes and Kyler Murray in year's past.

 

[Jegpeg]

I would take the other side of this statement. I think the media in aggregate, by a good margin, underestimates how high coaches and GM's will value the top QB's in any given year. Take last year for example. With the exception of Pickett, the top ranked QB's went way later than the overall media anticipated. The aggregate media were also way behind where many recent QB's were valued by teams. This is the case with Levis and Richardson this year, and QB's like Mahomes and Kyler Murray in year's past.

I am confused by that if the media underestimates how high coaches and GMs value top QBs wouldn't they be picked earlier than the media predict. Last year Ridder Willis and Corral were expected to go in Round 1 or 2 but all dropped to round 3. In a similar vain I expect Levis and Richardson to drop below where the media are predicting at least those predicting 4 QBs in the top 5.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I am confused by that if the media underestimates how high coaches and GMs value top QBs wouldn't they be picked earlier than the media predict. Last year Ridder Willis and Corral were expected to go in Round 1 or 2 but all dropped to round 3. In a similar vain I expect Levis and Richardson to drop below where the media are predicting at least those predicting 4 QBs in the top 5.

You might be right, but we shall see if the push back on overvaluing QB's trend continues as it did last year.

Was that an aberration, or will dumb franchises go back to panic mode and thinking they need to overvalue QB's and trade up to get one?

This is why I don't think we're drafting Richardson, I just can't believe John buys into that hype. He sets his value on every player firmly, and sticks with it. So why would he change that value on Richardson just because he can pick him at 5 when his scouts and value sets Richardson way further down into the late 1st or even 2nd round value?

When has Schneider ever done that?

 

[olyfan63]

You're right. But there are a number of guys who would compliment Walker. Roschon Johnson could be had in like the 3rd or 4th round. His ypc we're almost identical to Bijan's in that offense.

Whats your top 10 (or however many) of RBs in this draft? Asking primarily about "tier 2" RBs in my model.
I look at it as 4 tiers of RBs in the draft?

1 - Bijian Robinson, head and shoulders above
2 - Other RBs I don't know about who could be good NFL RB1s (e.g., Roschon Johnson, who else?)
3 - Other RBs who could be rotational/3rd down/Special teamers, e.g., DJ Dallas
4 - RBs who are "good" but not quite good enough to stick on an NFL roster

K9 was the one RB I hoped the Hawks would get last year, especially after they passed on Jonathan Taylor a few years back.