Psst...49ers Fans... Something You Should Know

Pandion Haliaetus

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 16, 2013
Messages
3,880
Reaction score
846
In 2012, Seattle rank 1st with 15.3 PPG allowed… 2013 the Seahawks allowed 7 points to Carolina.
In 2012, San Fran ranked 2nd with 17.1 PPG allowed… in 2013, SF allowed 28 points to Green Bay.

In 2012, notice the difference in points from 1st to 2nd, its 1.8 points.

On a side note in 2012:
Seahawks in 6 losses lost by an average of 4.33 points per loss.
49ers in 5 games lost by an average of 13.8 points per loss.

Logically, a smart person would compare the Defenses vs the Offenses but we still have to establish a base line of productivity.

In 2012, GB’s O ranked 13th in Yards (359.5 ypg) and 5th in Scoring (27.1 ppg)
In 2013, SF’s D allowed GB’s O to amass 385 yards and 28 points. But here’s the kicker, GB did that with only 21 minutes and 25 seconds of Possession.

1. Not only did SF have one of the better defenses in 2012, even though some SF would argue it being the best…SF played @ HOME!!!

2. SF’s O had the ball for 38 minutes and 35 seconds… I do wonder if there is a correlation of having the ball longer equates to more yardage and more points.

GB’s O generated about 131% of yards, and about 164% of points scored against SF’s 2012 Defensive Averages.

Based off its own 2012 Offensive averages, GB saw an increase of Yards by 7%, and Points of about 3% against supposedly one of the best Ds in the NFL on the Road, again, with under 22 minutes of Possession.

Not really a great performance by San Francisco if you asked me. Sure Kaepernick had a great game, but GB’s game plan was horrendous, what DC would go ALL OUT against the RUN when your 2ndary is missing 2 starters, one of them being one of the best young CBs in the game, last season.

Also, 485 yards and 34 points isn’t really that impressive when your offense puts in 77 plays and holds the ball for almost 40 minutes. That’s almost to be expected especially when that advantage is also coupled with being at HOME.

In 2012, CAR’s O ranked 12th in Yards (360.8 ypg) and 18th in Scoring (22.3 ppg)
In 2013, Seattle’s D against CAR’s O, allowed 253 yards and 7 points.

1. I’m not going with the percentages here, you can already see Seahawk’s D did statistically well against Carolina’s O averages. Not to mention:
2. On the Road
3. Playing at 10 AM PT
4. In 90 degrees of Heat and Humidity
5. Without Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin, and Cliff Avirl. That’s about 30 sacks in 2012.
6. Without Pro-Bowl CB, Brandon Browner. And…
7. The Seahawks top 4 DTs were either hobbled or injured in Mebane, McDaniels, Bennett, and Hill (DNP). Plus…
8. BTW, if you’re wondering Seattle and Carolina split T.O.P pretty much at 30:00 with Seahawks having it slightly more because they were able to run out the last 5 minutes of game clock.

It’s also the truth that Seattle’s O had plenty of issues, especially Russell Wilson in the face of constant pressure all game long still finished with a 76% completion percentage despite starting 1 out of 5 passing to begin the game. Wilson also ended the game with a 115 Passer Rating. And made the plays needed to win finishing with 320 yards, 1 TD, 0 Ints passing to 8 different WRs against a very good Defense.

And I love how some SFO fans argue how supposedly GB’s D is better than CAR’s D. They do have a logical point, I guess because GB’s D in 2012 did rank 11th in both yards and points allowed. Yards, IDRC about, but GB allowed 21 points per game.

Carolina ranked 10th in yards but placed 18th in the NFL in Points Allowed with 22.7 points. Game. Set. Match. Points awarded to SF fan.

Not quite so, remember when I told you to remember the difference between the 1st ranked D and the 2nd ranked D in Points Allowed. If you don’t, San Francisco allowed an average of 1.8 points per game versus the Seahawks average.

So what is the difference between the 18th best D in the NFL compared to the 11th?
Only 1.7 points per game allowed.

The difference from Panther's D from Packer's D is smaller than the difference from the 49ers' D to the Seahawks' D in 2012. So, if some SFO fans think the Panthers D is inferior to the Packers D, they are pretty much saying the Seahawks D is the Best Defense in the NFL. Hands down. No Contest. By that logic, SF’s D is inferior.

But in reality heading into 2013, if people actually did their homework on Carolina, instead of making half-assed assumptions on W-L records, one would likely make these findings about Carolina’s D, more specifically their Front 7.

1. Carolina’s LBer corps has three 1st round draft choices at LBer. Luke Kuechly in only his 2nd year is their best talent behind the oft-injured Jon Beason and Thomas Davis. Both of whom are household names, if you’d ask me. If this group can stay off the injury report it’s arguably the most impressive non-pass-rush LBer corps in the NFL.

2. Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy are both 280 plus and are among the best of the balanced DE’s in the NFL with size to hold the edges plus enough speed, strength, and skills to both notch double digit sacks.

3. Panthers also possessed one of the better pocket penetrating DTs in 2012 in Dwan Edwards. But DT overall was a weakness, especially against the RUN. So the Panthers bolstered their DT corps with 2 balanced DTs from the draft in Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short.

To stress that importance a little more in the thick 9er fans head, Carolina was the ONLY team in the NFL to draft 2 DTs consecutively in back to back rounds. They did so with their top two choices, a 1st round and 2nd round pick.

Lotulelei was once considered the top pick in the entire 2013 draft, easily a top 5 choice before a heart condition flat-lined his stock where Panthers could select him 14th.

Short, had fringe first round potential, and was one of the most consistently productive play-making DTs in college the last 3 or 4 years.

I’m not making any guarantees on this game, I just find funny how San Fran barely out duels GB in a shootout at HOME is worth its weight in gold.

But the Seahawks suck because they struggled, and the Panthers are clearly so inferior, because of insert so and so argument here blah blah, despite the Seahawks shutting them way down compared to CAR’s 2012 averages, @ CAR, as well as, overcoming many obstacles, handicaps, and significant injuries to key players.

If you'd ask me San Fran is definitely a tad bit overrated and Seattle doesn't nearly get enough respect for winning a tough, tough game for a West Coast team.
 

Popeyejones

Active member
Joined
Aug 20, 2013
Messages
5,525
Reaction score
0
Single games are not, and have never been dowsinng rods for overall quality or performance, nor has cherry picking stats ever been that useful in trying to evaluate overall quality or performance. You could be right, you could be wrong, but I don't think single games tell us anything about if you will be right or wrong.

Look, this is fun:

* Colin Kaepernick is currently on pace to pass for 6,592 yards, 48 Touchdowns, and 0 Interceptions. ZOMG HE IS THE BEST QUARTERBACK OF ALL TIME!!!!!!!!!

* Using the first game as our benchmark, the Chiefs Justin Houstin should get around 50 sacks this year. ZOMG! ZOMG! ZOMG!!

* Guys, Bobby Wagner is only going to get 60 tackles this year. How did we overrate him so much?!?!??!?!?!?
 

Starrman44

New member
Joined
Feb 28, 2012
Messages
814
Reaction score
0
Location
Canby, OR
Popeyejones":2tmn90ge said:
Single games are not, and have never been dowsinng rods for overall quality or performance, nor has cherry picking stats ever been that useful in trying to evaluate overall quality or performance. You could be right, you could be wrong, but I don't think single games tell us anything about if you will be right or wrong.

Look, this is fun:

* Colin Kaepernick is currently on pace to pass for 6,592 yards, 48 Touchdowns, and 0 Interceptions. ZOMG HE IS THE BEST QUARTERBACK OF ALL TIME!!!!!!!!!

* Using the first game as our benchmark, the Chiefs Justin Houstin should get around 50 sacks this year. ZOMG! ZOMG! ZOMG!!

* Guys, Bobby Wagner is only going to get 60 tackles this year. How did we overrate him so much?!?!??!?!?!?

Yeah, but Niner fans have been using our one single game to try and say we aren't as good as we were last year. So, I think the OP was pretty hilarious. If the Niner fans want to try and laugh at us for Carolina, than let us extrapolate as much as we can from that first game and compare it to theirs.
 

FriscosFinest

New member
Joined
May 29, 2012
Messages
230
Reaction score
0
Did the seahawks beat a team they were SUPPOSED to beat? Regardless of score?

Yes and yes. Case is closed. Its week 2 now, one of us will be 1-1. Its that simple! May the best team win.
 

Popeyejones

Active member
Joined
Aug 20, 2013
Messages
5,525
Reaction score
0
Starrman44":1xcacakc said:
Yeah, but Niner fans have been using our one single game to try and say we aren't as good as we were last year. So, I think the OP was pretty hilarious.

The OP was being serious though, not ironic.

If you think 9ers fans are stupid dumb dumbs, spending 1500 words lowering yourself to the level of the stupid dumbs dumbs to prove you can be as dumb as them doesn't make that much sense, IMO.

(and really, let's face it, for every 9er fan trying to read way too much into the Hawks less than impressive offensive performance last week, there's an equal number of Hawks fans trying to read way too much into the 9ers less than impressive defensive performance. They're all being kinda silly on both sides, IMO).
 

Veilside

New member
Joined
Sep 8, 2010
Messages
755
Reaction score
0
Popeyejones":22p9p7og said:
Single games are not, and have never been dowsinng rods for overall quality or performance, nor has cherry picking stats ever been that useful in trying to evaluate overall quality or performance. You could be right, you could be wrong, but I don't think single games tell us anything about if you will be right or wrong.

Look, this is fun:

* Colin Kaepernick is currently on pace to pass for 6,592 yards, 48 Touchdowns, and 0 Interceptions. ZOMG HE IS THE BEST QUARTERBACK OF ALL TIME!!!!!!!!!

* Using the first game as our benchmark, the Chiefs Justin Houstin should get around 50 sacks this year. ZOMG! ZOMG! ZOMG!!

* Guys, Bobby Wagner is only going to get 60 tackles this year. How did we overrate him so much?!?!??!?!?!?

That's not even close to what he did. Using averages is much different than just using "on pace" stats which is what you just used 3 times.
 

Popeyejones

Active member
Joined
Aug 20, 2013
Messages
5,525
Reaction score
0
Veilside":17bdpiyo said:
That's not even close to what he did. Using averages is much different than just using "on pace" stats which is what you just used 3 times.

It's precisely what he did. Did you not read the post? "Averages" and "On Pace" are the exact same thing for the purposes of this discussion, which was my point.*

The jujitsu of talking about 2012 as a baseline doesn't change which data are being treated as meaningful.

*Which was admittedly rhetorical and smartass, as I'm happy to own up to, but again, I was doing so to point out a fatal flaw in the logic, and also made a point to acknowledge that both Hawks and 9ers fans are doing this (it's far from one sided), and mistakenly so, IMO.
 
OP
OP
P

Pandion Haliaetus

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 16, 2013
Messages
3,880
Reaction score
846
NinerLifer":32j2gllr said:
Nobody cares about stats from 2012, it's freakin' 2013 now!

Exactly, and the 49ers weren't as awesome or dominating as 49er fans think they were vs GB. SF nearly lost at HOME, with nearly two-thirds of time of possession in their favor.

Kaepernick was great but its not like he put up a heroic performance like Russell Wilson did vs Carolina. Kaep had all day to throw, his receivers were wide open, but who wouldn't be as successful against a defense that didn't know what the hell it was doing. Its likely a different game for GB if Hayward was available, he's their Richard Sherman, Darelle Revis of that Defense and he pretty much shuts everything down that comes into the middle.

And in my exaggerated opinion, you guys already crowned yourself because you scored 34 points against the Packers, and Kaep had 400 yards, and 3 TDs. Big, effin whoop.

1. If we are talking about 2013, your Defense is soft.

2. If we are talking about 2013, the Seahawks Defense is a heck of a lot better than Packers, and the Seahawks aren't even at full-strength.

3. Going home, Seahawks are a much better team, offensively and defensively.

4. Beware the 12's. Our fans at least give us a real HFA, and that's an understatement because the Seahawks have the best fan base in the world at Home games. . Just ask the Giants how they feel about Candlestick.
 

FormerEvil

Member
Joined
Jan 7, 2013
Messages
177
Reaction score
7
Now past stats and achievements don't matter? So I guess that ends the 5 rings thing..
 

SoHo9erFan

New member
Joined
May 17, 2012
Messages
499
Reaction score
0
Lol GBalmost had 31 points the 1st half if JJ didn't fumble it into the end zone. GB is legit. You're cherry picking stats to make some delusional point.
 

SoHo9erFan

New member
Joined
May 17, 2012
Messages
499
Reaction score
0
Seahawks fans put so much emphasis on homefield. Sorry, the 49ers don't have CLink. Winning at home is just as good as winning on the road for the 49ers. Because that's the major difference between the 49ers and the Hawks. The 49ers win on the road no problem. Just because the Hawks struggle on the road doesn't mean every team in the NFL does. You are putting way too much weight on venue when making this analysis
 
Top