Q&A with Saints Fans/Seahawks-Saints Game Preview ...

[Mindsink]

Your offense ran the ball down the throat of a defense that had basically given up.

You might see more of the same next Monday. :shock:

Seriously though, I appreciate your confidence. But let me add this other tidbit...

For all the hype about Seattle's so-called troubles playing on the road, the Saints are decisively worse.

Seahawks are 5-1 on the road. Saints are 3-2.

The Saints have a higher-powered offense than the Seahawks, yet the Seahawks average 24 pts/game on the road. Saints average 21.2 pts/game.

And the Seahawks scored more than 30 points twice in those 6 road games. The Saints haven't seen north of 30 points in any of those games.

 

[saints2k8]

gonna be a great game

23-20 Saints

neither side of the ball for NO dominates but each make plays when it matters most

 

[Scottemojo]

gonna be a great game

23-20 Saints

neither side of the ball for NO dominates but each make plays when it matters most

In depth analysis there. Good stuff.

 

[Hawkscanner]

Hey Scott,

Care to take a crack at anything you've seen discussed here thus far ... or have some good questions/insights of your own?

*Scott is one of our real bright football minds here at Seahawks.net. Glad to see that it looks he's joining the party. Kearly (Kip Earlywine) and EnglishSeahawk (Rob Stanton) -- both of whom write for Seahawksdraftblog.com and do a fantastic job over there -- are another couple of real bright football minds that I'd LOVE to join in on the conversation here as well.

 

[saints2k8]

gonna be a great game

23-20 Saints

neither side of the ball for NO dominates but each make plays when it matters most

In depth analysis there. Good stuff.

I try

 

[Hawkscanner]

This isn't a question, but I thought that Saints Fans (and Seahawks Fans who may have missed this one the first time around) might find both interesting and insightful. This is re-posted from a piece that I wrote last year -- a very interesting interview with Seahawks Head Coach Pete Carroll.

Pete Carroll was on with 710 ESPN’s Brock and Salk the day after the Seahawks 42-13 victory over the 49ers on Christmas Eve last year (12/24/2012). During that interview, he gave some fascinating insights not only on the Seahawk Offense as a whole … but on his overall mentality as a coach. For those who might actually want to listen to the interview itself (maybe as you read it), go ahead and click on the link at the bottom of the transcript. Enjoy! …

Huard: “… and you watch those plays last night. Those are some of the same plays -- tell me if I’m wrong here. Was the touchdown to Baldwin not the same similar concept as the throw to Charlie Martin Week 1 on the corner route in Arizona? Are they some of the same concepts and plays you’re running?”

Carroll: “Yeah, you’d be surprised how similar those are. I mean, there’s subtleties on how we move stuff around. There’s splits and things like that. But, yeah – had we, we’re so much better now – we would have won the Arizona game. They wouldn’t have been able to keep us out on 3 shots to get in – I mean, there’s just no way. We’re so much more efficient. That’s a great throw by Russell. You know, they’ve got a little combination coverage there on the guys right there. They jumped the heck out of Golden because he’s caught the Chicago touchdown and he caught one – you know, Carolina – caught a couple of those and made some big plays on that route. Which, it’s just a matter of reading it out for the quarterback. And on the combo they wind out inside of the corner route and they couldn’t catch up – he throws a great throw to the back flag – and a great catch, you know. So, that’s just getting better – them improving and understanding – they’ve thrown hundreds of those now. When we used to throw about 10 or 20 of them – now we’ve thrown hundreds, so it makes a difference in our ability to execute.”

Huard: “So in some ways that is the essence of efficiency right?”

Carroll: “We can’t make up new plays week in and week out across the board. There’s just no way. There’s little things that we do – little wrinkles that you put in and stuff, but basically you continue to function with your basic stuff. We’ve run inside-outside zone forever. Those are the same blocking schemes forever and ever and ever and we try to – when the defense breaks down, we make a big play because we’re so consistent. And that’s what makes Tom [Cable] such a big difference on our team because of his commitment to the running game in that fashion. And so, you’re seeing the same plays. You’re seeing the same calls for the most part – with wrinkles and formations and shifts and motions and things to make sure that the opponent doesn’t know that they’re coming.”

Salk: “The fact that you’re running a lot of the same plays and different formations – does that give you some of the time to work on the Pistol and develop that? Does it give you a little extra time?”

Carroll:“Yeah a little bit. A little bit. But we still don’t have that much time. One of the things that you really want to do in football is you want to have things that your opponent knows that you like. You want them to have to stop things because when they have to make their efforts to stop things – they become vulnerable. Until YOU know what you know -- and THEY know what you know – you can’t get to that level. Now that may have been confusing, but that’s really what you WANT people to understand what you’re trying to do – and they try to stop it – and you go ahead and do your things to take advantage of that. So, sometimes you’re not even good enough to get to that point. We are now, so it’s helping us and we’ll continue to grow with good fortune.”

Source:
Pete Carroll on with 710 ESPN’s Brock and Salk – 12/24/12

 

[Fun Bunch]

First of all, ranking units by yards is worthless.

Now, Seattle is significantly better by DVOA and they're playing at home, which is worth 16 more points of DVOA. New Orleans' strength on offense is Sproles and Graham, and Seattle's strength on pass defense (surprising to some) is defending TEs (#3 by DVOA) and RBs (#4 by DVOA), so that's neutralized. Brees is good on MNF, but so is Seattle and Russell Wilson has never lost at home. Brees' passer rating is 30 points lower on the road. The Saints are almost the worst in the NFL at stopping the run (#29 by DVOA), which is a problem going against Seattle. New Orleans won't be able to sell out to stop the run like they did against SF, because Wilson is #6 in the NFL in passer rating. If you "make Russell Wilson beat you", he'll rip off your arm and club you to death with it.

In the last two weeks, the Saints almost lost to SF and Atlanta, two teams Seattle destroyed[1]. In compiling their 10-1 record, Seattle has lost a ton of man-games from Okung (reigning Pro-Bowl LT), Unger (reigning All-Pro C), Giacomini (starting RT), and our best non-lineman pass blocker Zach Miller. And Percy Harvin. All these guys are back starting last week, and the difference was clear. After Denver's loss, Seattle will have the #1 DVOA in the NFL, and that's after having spent most of the season missing most of our pass blocking! Seattle just passed Denver in most LV Hotels for odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl.

Look, New Orleans can win. Of course they can. But they probably won't because Seattle is a better team than they are. And if Seattle runs away with it, no one will be shocked.

A Saints win looks a lot like the Colts win earlier this year: Seattle outplays them but Saints play really well and maybe get a few breaks in a row from the officials and a lucky bounce of the ball or two.

Even if New Orleans wins, they still won't win HFA, because they have yet to play Carolina twice (Carolina is better than the Saints) AND the Rams at St. Louis who I can't rule out are now better than the Saints. Definitely aren't running that gauntlet undefeated and very possibly losing twice.

As someone said that someone else said, if New Orleans leaves Seattle without any major injuries, that should be considered a win.

[1] Note: Historically, there's no evidence division games are closer than any other games.

I don't even know where to start with this. :lol:

 

[Number9]

I don't even know where to start with this. :lol:

A common reaction to flame bait.

 

[Scottemojo]

Hey Scott,

Care to take a crack at anything you've seen discussed here thus far ... or have some good questions/insights of your own?

*Scott is one of our real bright football minds here at Seahawks.net. Glad to see that it looks he's joining the party. Kearly (Kip Earlywine) and EnglishSeahawk (Rob Stanton) -- both of whom write for Seahawksdraftblog.com and do a fantastic job over there -- are another couple of real bright football minds that I'd LOVE to join in on the conversation here as well.

I don't have that much to add. You are making me blush, I'm no expert, just a video grinder.

Maxwell is a grabby ass annoying hand checking corner like Talib, though not as good as Talib, but he can make some difference with Graham. Look for that matchup. Brees and Graham make hay above the rim, so if they make a couple of plays I won't be surprised, but I look for Chancellor to be eyeballing Graham.
Ingram is soft. Pierre Thomas isn't, but he isn't the type of runner we really struggle to control. Sproles commands some respect, but we have not struggled vs some really fast guys like Austin or Pead or Hunter on the perimeter, stretching Seattle laterally is playing to one of the defensive strengths. Look for OLB to key on Sproles, Irvin can get him, but I am not sure Wright can. We may see Smith in a bit, his lateral speed is great. If the Saints get behind by more than a touch, Payton will mostly abandon the run and start picking on what he sees as favorable passing matchups.

Moore and Stills present problems for our nickel situation. Stills has gotten behind the secondary a couple of times, I look for Earl to have to watch that.

I love Avril vs play action and any Brees bootlegs. The crowd will be difficult for tackles. Brees loves to change plays at the line, he is simply one of the best at it, but it will be hard as hell to do that in Seattle.

I love our offensive matchups for the most part. Saints fans are excited about their D, but I LOVE Lynch to have a good game. Once they commit to stopping Lynch with 8 (or more, like they did with the Niners), game over. The Saints real chance to win is they have to shut down the Hawks on first down. If they do, my forecast of 35 plus for the Hawks drops severely. I look for them to give both Lynch and Harvin extra attention, which should open things up for Baldwin in particular. I look for some 2 man routes with Baldwin/Tate doing a zone drag with Harvin, and at least a couple of WR screens for Harvin. And a RB wheel/flare tailing that two man game as well. I expect Seattle to stretch the field early like we always do, just to put that thought in the safety group.

I'm not big on using past trends to figure winners, Monday night records and home field streaks don't really have any effect on individual matchups. And I really like our matchups. If the weather is even slightly nasty, that favors the QB with the big hands who to date has played well in bad conditions, so there is that.

Were I a gambling man, I would take the over of 6.

 

[whoDat]

Seahawks Fans I have a question (please don't take this as trash talk it's just a question)

I read a blog post by one of the talking heads earlier today. I am trying to find it again so I can post a link here.

It said that the Seahawks corners are raked so high because they have faces bottom of the barrel quarterbacks this year. He goes on to say that the only decent quarterback the Seahawks have faced beat them (Andres Luck). I don't necessarly agree but I would like your take on the subject.

The article did point out that Cam Newton was probably the best quarterback they the Seahawkas have faced and, they caught him early in the season before he started to gel.

It also stated that Brees lowest pass total for a game this year (236), was higher than 8 of Wilson games. I take issue with that because Seattle has a awesome running back who can go in to beast mode at any point. Tracy Porter remembers this well.

Your thoughts

 

[Scottemojo]

Seahawks Fans I have a question (please don't take this as trash talk it's just a question)

I read a blog post by one of the talking heads earlier today. I am trying to find it again so I can post a link here.

It said that the Seahawks corners are raked so high because they have faces bottom of the barrel quarterbacks this year. He goes on to say that the only decent quarterback the Seahawks have faces beat them (Andres Luck). I don't necessarly agree but I would like your take on the subject.

The article did point out that Cam Newton was probably the best quarterback they the Seahawkas have faced and, they caught him early in the season before he started to gel.

It also stated that Brees lowest pass total for a game this (236) wear was higher than 8 of Wilson games. I take issue with that because Seattle has a awesome running back who can go in to beast mode at any point. Tracy Porter remembers this well.

Your thoughts

It's true they have faced some turds this year. 'Course, Luck just cracked 200 yards passing in the game you mention, and about 80 of that came on one busted coverage, so it isn't like like Luck was shredding anyone. I can't help but notice you pick on the one loss to support your hope. I would refer you to getting beat by Geno Smith to point out how silly it can be to focus on yards as some kind of indicator if I thought it would do any good.

I have 2 questions for you.
1. How many Hawk games have you actually watched this year?
2. Why would you let some blogger shape your opinion? Why not, and this goes back to question 1, watch the games?

 

[Mindsink]

Seahawks Fans I have a question (please don't take this as trash talk it's just a question)

I read a blog post by one of the talking heads earlier today. I am trying to find it again so I can post a link here.

It said that the Seahawks corners are raked so high because they have faces bottom of the barrel quarterbacks this year. He goes on to say that the only decent quarterback the Seahawks have faces beat them (Andres Luck). I don't necessarly agree but I would like your take on the subject.

The article did point out that Cam Newton was probably the best quarterback they the Seahawkas have faced and, they caught him early in the season before he started to gel.

It also stated that Brees lowest pass total for a game this (236) wear was higher than 8 of Wilson games. I take issue with that because Seattle has a awesome running back who can go in to beast mode at any point. Tracy Porter remembers this well.

Your thoughts

There are more bad QBs in this league than good ones. By simple probability, we will have faced more bad ones than good.

Also, guys like Matt Ryan and Colin Kaepernick are not "bottom of the barrel". Chad Henne and Christian Ponder...OK.

Yes, Brees is a better QB than Wilson, and their offense is centered around his abilities as a passer. I don't think you'll find any Seahawks fan that disagrees with that.

 

[whoDat]

Seahawks Fans I have a question (please don't take this as trash talk it's just a question)

I read a blog post by one of the talking heads earlier today. I am trying to find it again so I can post a link here.

It said that the Seahawks corners are raked so high because they have faces bottom of the barrel quarterbacks this year. He goes on to say that the only decent quarterback the Seahawks have faces beat them (Andres Luck). I don't necessarly agree but I would like your take on the subject.

The article did point out that Cam Newton was probably the best quarterback they the Seahawkas have faced and, they caught him early in the season before he started to gel.

It also stated that Brees lowest pass total for a game this (236) wear was higher than 8 of Wilson games. I take issue with that because Seattle has a awesome running back who can go in to beast mode at any point. Tracy Porter remembers this well.

Your thoughts

The blogger did not sway my opinion. I just found this article interesting. I stated in my post that I don't agree with the article. I would like your take.

 

[Saints33]

With two teams this evenly matched I believe Special Teams could be the difference. How has New Orleans been performing in this area? I have heard of Hartley's struggles, but what about your return game etc?

We have a streaky kicker, the kind that boots 50+ yarders easily and misses 30 yards out. Our punter is one of the best in the league with power and accuracy. We have good return men with Sproles and Cadet but penalties have been a big problem for several years on negating good returns. Dumb penalties that don't even have an effect on the play have been problems this year, holdings, block in back, etc in the return game. Our coverage units have been really good so far this year.

 

[Hawkscanner]

Just an overall reminder for everyone here [now that we're 7 Pages in to it] that I started this thread with the idea that this would be a respectful discussion for all. I just wanted to remind people of that, as at a couple of points I've noted some appearing to get a bit testy. Posting on forums like this one is a whole lot different than discussing things with the same guys over a cup of coffee at Starbucks ... or a beer at a local bar -- as we can all see each other face to face and note the non-verbals and have little doubt how things are communicated. Personally, I'd rather do that, as it's so much easier to communicate that way, as there is less room for misunderstanding to occur. Here, we have to be really cognizant of the word choice because things can get misconstrued and things can go off the track real quick. Moderators are on board with this overall idea and are watching. Things have gone well so far ... I just want to make sure they stay that way. Alright, I'll stop being Dad now. :lol:

 

[Scottemojo]

My take? the blog writer took some facts and made a story. Seahawks can only play the schedule they are dealt, and they have made some of those QBs look silly.

Facts: Brees and Wilson are statistically very similar except for number of attempts. Brees is throwing 14 more passes per game than Wilson. Wilson actually has a higher YPA. The Saints are running 9 more offensive plays per game than the Hawks as well. Yet the points per game for both teams is for all purposes identical. That doesn't have that much to do with the quarterbacks they are playing.
12 TDs surrendered, 16 interceptions. Giving up an average of 180 yards passing per game. Maybe part of the reason those bad quarterbacks are seen the way they are is Seattle's D makes them look bad. I know after week 1 the NFL was collectively planted on Kaepernick's jock, and after he faced the Hawks in week 2 everyone wanted to know what was wrong with him.

A stat to consider. Seattle leads the league in toxic differential (takeaways+explosion plays-(turnovers+explosion plays surrendered)) with 42. The saints are 4th with 22. Most of that Toxic differential was accumulated with Harvin injured. Big for both teams, historically teams that win Super Bowls are almost always top ten in this stat.

 

[Scottemojo]

Just an overall reminder for everyone here [now that we're 7 Pages in to it] that I started this thread with the idea that this would be a respectful discussion for all. I just wanted to remind people of that, as at a couple of points I've noted some appearing to get a bit testy. Posting on forums like this one is a whole lot different than discussing things with the same guys over a cup of coffee at Starbucks ... or a beer at a local bar -- as we can all see each other face to face and note the non-verbals and have little doubt how things are communicated. Personally, I'd rather do that, as it's so much easier to communicate that way, as there is less room for misunderstanding to occur. Here, we have to be really cognizant of the word choice because things can get misconstrued and things can go off the track real quick. Moderators are on board with this overall idea and are watching. Things have gone well so far ... I just want to make sure they stay that way. Alright, I'll stop being Dad now. :lol:

Sorry, I did not intend the snark in one of my previous posts. The question stands, I have spent the last week catching up on Saint's games so that I could get a handle on the matchups, so anytime I see a post that has an appeal to what some dude said, I call it, "how many of our games have you actually watched?". Also, the they haven't played anybody stuff wears thin. As do trends like "we good on Monday night", neither of those things have a single thing to do with the matchups we will see on the field.

In my experience, people appeal to those things because they don't have a grasp on the matchups.

 

[plyka]

The whole "we have the best win percentage on the road since 09" crap from saints fans is getting old quick. What does your road record from last year or any other prior to THIS YEAR have to do with anything? Every year is different from the next and this year the saints are a different team at home then they are on the road. This being a home game gives me confidence that the Hawks will beat the Saints, not only does the crowd factor in but the team feeds from their energy and you can bet there will be plenty of that.

Also, these type of statistics rely entirely on subjective decisions. For instance, they picked 09. Why? Why not 2011 or 2010 or 2007? I haven't looked at the stats, but ten bucks says if you start at a different year going back, you'll have 5-6 teams with the "best road record since 20XX." If you choose this year, it may be the Seahawks at 5-1. If you choose 2001, it won't be the Saints. So stats like this are really meaningless. The stats with meaning have the least amount of subjective variables.

Your line is back healthy, why is everyone so impressed and enamored so early. It takes time for lines to gel, they were thoroughly unimpressive to me against a weak defensive unit in Minny. This will be their 2nd LIVE game together, this time against a really good D-line. What makes everyone so sure of a line with little to no cohesion against a top notch D-line? Are you guys banking that smoke and mirrors, fakes, delays, and playaction will negate a handicapped O-line?

Why do you consider the Saints D-Line as a good one? Don't they allow roughly 5 yards per rush over the season? Taking into consideration the teams you've played, to have 5 yards per rush average --that's pretty bad. I wouldn't consider the Saints elite on defense, not even close. I'd say they are pretty average.

The Saints are not a great road team. They lost to the JETS for Pete's sake, they barely got past the Falcons on Thursday, Seattle beat them up just a few weeks ago in ATL. I think the Saints are a good team, but they aren't unbeatable, I think they are terrific passing team, but they are mediocre running unit- Averaging less than 100 yards and less than 4.0 yards a carry. Seattle is the more complete team., IMO. They can run and pass and they have the homefield advantage.

Bree's road numbers are merely average with a 88-89 QB rating on the road. In the end I think it will come down to who can capitalize in the redzone and who can run the ball effectively- considering there's a chance at snow on that day.

You can't judge how good the saints are by how the struggled on the road to beat a Division team. Division games are always harder since you play those teams twice and one of those games being on the road. If you want to make that case then same can be made about the Seahawks struggling barely beating the Rams and barely escaping with a win in Seattle to the then 0-7 Tampa Bucs. The Saints have enough run game to Run against the the hawks who currently rank just below the Saints in run defense. So both teams will be able to run in this game.

The Bucs are a good team, and they were a good team when they played the Hawks. Since the Hawks game they have dominated in 3 wins in a row, so it is a bit disingenious to bring up the 0-7 record which is a month old and leave out their current record. The Bucs also DOMINATED that same Falcons team you had trouble with. It wasn't just a small domination either. The Rams are the same, as we saw when they trampled the Colts last week and beat the Bears this week --that's two division leaders the Rams left in their dust.

All this talk is quite irrelevant though and just for fun. We will see the truth on Monday. As a prediction, I just can't see how the Saints do not get destroyed by the Hawks. I think the Saints are an overrated team. They allow roughly 5 yards per rush on defense. They are forced to blitz from every direction in order to get some pressure on the QB. Their offense is great passing wise, they do not have a good rushing game at all. The Saints are the epitome of a soft team. I expect the Seahawks to bulldoze right over them. I really see no way that this Saints team can win on Monday. I also expect them to get bulldozed by a superior Panthers team. The Panthers arer a team that i would be worried about, just like in Week 1 when the Hawks barely beat them 12-7 in CArolina. That's a tough team. I put them on the level of the 49ers. The saints I put 1 peg below Seahawks/49ers/Panthers.

 

[Hawkscanner]

Seahawks Fans I have a question (please don't take this as trash talk it's just a question)

I read a blog post by one of the talking heads earlier today. I am trying to find it again so I can post a link here.

It said that the Seahawks corners are raked so high because they have faces bottom of the barrel quarterbacks this year. He goes on to say that the only decent quarterback the Seahawks have faced beat them (Andres Luck). I don't necessarly agree but I would like your take on the subject.

The article did point out that Cam Newton was probably the best quarterback they the Seahawkas have faced and, they caught him early in the season before he started to gel.

It also stated that Brees lowest pass total for a game this year (236), was higher than 8 of Wilson games. I take issue with that because Seattle has a awesome running back who can go in to beast mode at any point. Tracy Porter remembers this well.

Your thoughts

My thoughts right off the bat are that the poster probably hasn't watched a whole lot of Seahawks football and is basing his opinions just purely off of stats -- which again, can lie in so many ways. Here is what I'd have to say:

1) On the Seahawks Defense, that Legion of Boom is no joke. The Hawks are without a doubt one of the very best defenses in the league. Players like Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are (to borrow a term from John Schneider) "Tilt the Room" type of players. And if there are any notions that Browner's and Thurmond's absences will have any bearing on this game, that is not necessarily the case. This is a very deep group in terms of talent. As Scott pointed out already, Seattle was without Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond for the last 3 or 4 games of the season ... and the pass defense actually played BETTER in many ways. So, nope, not going to buy that argument on the Seahawk corners.

2) As far as the Seahawks Offense is concerned -- Yes, the Seahawks run the ball more than any team in the NFL. However, that isn't some reflection on Russell Wilson. He doesn't suck. He isn't a game manager. None of that stuff. In fact, if you were to plop him smack down in the middle of (say the Atlanta Offense or the Patriots, who pass A LOT) ... he would do just fine throwing it 40+ times a game. Those passing yards are lower simply because this is Pete Carroll's philosophy of football -- Pound the Rock. He is old school in believing that if you control the time of possession ... and pound away at an opposing Defensive Line ... you will not only limit the opposition's opportunities to score ... you will also wear them down and tend to have big plays happen in the 3rd and 4th Quarter. Wilson HAS HAD times in the past where he has passed for 300+ yards, so he most certainly can throw it with the best of them. Also if the poster is judging based upon the Minnesota Game (for example) ... Carroll benched nearly all of the starters (including Wilson) at the start of the 4th Quarter, as the game was basically over at that point. In general, you're not going to see a lot of high passing numbers ... simply because Carroll doesn't believe in that kind of football.

For those who are unfamiliar with the Seahawks Defense, it's very different from what you're used to. Pete Carroll and company have their own unique approach. Mike Chan over at Field Gulls did very nice write-up on the Seahawks Hybrid Defense, explaining their concepts, some of their base formations, etc. I highly recommend reading it for those who are interested ...
Defining the Seahawks' Defense: An Introduction

 

[citysaint]

Well, you can only play the opponents on your schedule. but you guys have played a lot of dumpy Qb's so playing Brees might be a good pre-playoff test for you guys. When your corners were out I'm pretty sure you guys played 3 or 4 of the worst teams in the league at the time. This time it's arguably the worst time to lose corners.