Rogers and Wilson highest ave passer rating in NFL history.

[Palmegranite]

If your team is down by a score with 2 minutes left in the game, a dink-and-dunk passer is not going to win the game for you by marching down the field in 2 or 3 yard spurts. He'll as apt to throw an interception if he attempts to air it out. Hence it makes sense that he's penalized, no?

 

[hawknation2018]

Before the monkeys come to fling poo at me: THIS IS NOT A DISS ON WILSON.

First, Passer Rating and QBR are two different statistics. Stop referring to Passer rating or "qb rating" as QBR, because it's not the same thing.

Second, passer rating is a rubbish stat that rewards a certain style of QB more than others. A typical WCO dink-and-dunk passer is penalized by not having his average yards per pass be 12.5 or over. on the other hand, our offense is designed to suck in the defense with the run and then throw long passes over the top - something Wilson excels at because he can keep the play alive long enough for deep routes to develop, and throws a good long ball for the most part.

Because Wilson throws long and not as often as others, his TD per pass is very good. Because he waits on guys to get open, his TD/INT ratio is very good.

All of this lends itself very well to a very nice passer rating.

But that doesn't make passer rating a good stat. It's very limited and ignores some pretty major things, like sacks. This is not to cast any shade on Wilson - there are many other metrics by which Wilson excels as well as passer rating.

I guess passer rating is kind of like YPC for judging whether a running back is elite. Yes, it's a stat and measures a key part of his game, but takes no consideration of stuffs vs successful runs, how good a receiver out of the backfield he is, or a slew of other things that make some players special. It's like giving a guy who goes 0, 0, 0, 12 credit for his 4 YPC credit over a guy who goes 4, 4,3, 4 who averages 3.75 YPC but gets you first downs all the time and helps you to control the clock and the game.

There are four components to passer rating: completion percentage, yards per attempt, TDs per attempt, and INTs per attempt.

The “dink and dunk” passer that you describe benefits from throwing more high probability passes, thereby inflating his completion percentage, and minimizing his probability of INTs on such throws.

Also, yards per attempt is not the same as yards per completion or air yards attempted per pass. Yards per attempt does not necessarily prejudice the short passing game, as efficiency tends to balance itself; shorter throws lead to fewer incompletions and easier gains.

Wilson is ranked 6th in yards per attempt, while Rivers/Goff/Brees are ranked ahead of him at 3/4/5. The only qualifying QB with a wacko yards per attempt (9.6) is Ryan Fitzpatrick, and his QB rating is comparatively lower than the other QBs with high yards per attempt. This is because Fitzpatrick has a high rate of INTs per attempt, which is usually the dark side to the gunslinger approach.

That highlights the magic that Wilson has accomplished over seven season. He attempts a higher proportion of low-probability downfield throws, yet he maintains a plus completion percentage, an amazing TD rate, and (most remarkably) a low INT rate. This is what has set him apart in passer rating from any other QB in NFL history, except Aaron Rodgers. It should also be noted that Rodgers attempts a much higher proportion of safe “dink and drunk” throws, which also serves to undermine the premise of your argument.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/play ... ected=true

 

[KiwiHawk]

There are four components to passer rating: completion percentage, yards per attempt, TDs per attempt, and INTs per attempt.

The “dink and dunk” passer that you describe benefits from throwing more high probability passes, thereby inflating his completion percentage, and minimizing his probability of INTs on such throws.

Also, yards per attempt is not the same as yards per completion or air yards attempted per pass. Yards per attempt does not necessarily prejudice the short passing game, as efficiency tends to balance itself; shorter throws lead to fewer incompletions and easier gains.

Wilson is ranked 6th in yards per attempt, while Rivers/Goff/Brees are ranked ahead of him at 3/4/5. The only qualifying QB with a wacko yards per attempt (9.6) is Ryan Fitzpatrick, and his QB rating is comparatively lower than the other QBs with high yards per attempt. This is because Fitzpatrick has a high rate of INTs per attempt, which is usually the dark side to the gunslinger approach.

That highlights the magic that Wilson has accomplished over seven season. He attempts a higher proportion of low-probability downfield throws, yet he maintains a plus completion percentage, an amazing TD rate, and (most remarkably) a low INT rate. This is what has set him apart in passer rating from any other QB in NFL history, except Aaron Rodgers. It should also be noted that Rodgers attempts a much higher proportion of safe “dink and drunk” throws, which also serves to undermine the premise of your argument.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/play ... ected=true

The bar is 12.5 yards per attempt for a "perfect" passer rating. Because it's an average, if a QB hits on the long ones often enough he can still bolster his completion percent with shorter passes and still achieve a "perfect" passer rating score. The fact that Rodgers attempts a greater percentage of safe throws doesn't hurt his passer rating as long as there are longer passes often enough to offset the dinks.

Edit: Forgot to say that the 12.5 is a cap, so 30 YPA = 13 YPA as far as passer rating is concerned, which is why a Rodgers wouldn't be "penalized" by throwing more dinks as long as he completes the odd hail mary. If there wasn't a cap, then Wilson's numbers would probably be much higher.