Ron Jaworski's 2014 top QB countdown - Russell Wilson #9

[scutterhawk]

Let Jaws and the rest, roll with the stats, me?, I'll take the wins that RW stacks up.

 

[Anthony!]

I am kinda okay with Wilson at #9. He was 8th in passer rating last year in an offense that is kinda designed to boost QB efficiency stats. I would rank him a few spots higher on account of the NFC West, his playoff performances, and his 31st ranked protection last year. There are a lot of probable future HoF QBs playing right now and Wilson is younger than all but one of them, so I can understand putting Wilson 9th.

I think Nick Foles is probably the NFL's most under-rated player. 15th on this list after posting the 4th highest rating in league history during his first full season. I know that his interception numbers are unsustainable, but give him 10 picks instead of 2 and he still has elite numbers. But more than that, I've been sold watching him play. He is not the same guy he was at Arizona. The current version of Nick Foles reminds me a lot of Brett Favre. Does just enough with his feet and arm to consistently be a pain in the ass. And he's dangerous in the red zone... one of the better "thread the needle" QBs in the league.

Actually that is in correct he is not in a offense that boosts efficiency, he is in an offense that requires efficiency. For example


If you through 25 times a game and you start 1-10 you have to go 15-15 on the next 15 to get to 64%.
If you through 35 times a game and you start 1-10 you can go 22-25 and get to 64+% so you have more margin for error.

So again less throws means less margin for error. That is not good for efficiency.

You could say through out all the other QBs they are in offenses that throw a lot so they will get a lot of yards, really.

 

[Anthony!]

Let Jaws and the rest, roll with the stats, me?, I'll take the wins that RW stacks up.

But you see other than yards they are not rolling with stats because of they did Rw would be higher than luck, as Rw stats are higher than luck in everything but yards.

Rw 6473 yards, 800 attempts Comp% 63.6, 8.1 ypa, 52 tds, 6.5td%, 19 ints, 2.4 int%, 100.5 QB rating, 1028 rushing yards

Luck 8196 yards, 1197 attempts, complt% 57, 6.85 ypa, 46tds, 3.8td%, 27int, 2.3int%, 81.5 Qb rating, 632 rushing yards

The reason Luck is above Rw is because he was anointed and he is 6 foot tall.

 

[lukerguy]

Interesting. Why even argue about it? We spend so much time discussing this, but the only ranking that matters is our TEAM ranking. We are #1, and that's undisputed.

It seems like every 5th thread is arguing over Wilson's rank among other quarterbacks.

 

[Subzero717]

Interesting. Why even argue about it? We spend so much time discussing this, but the only ranking that matters is our TEAM ranking. We are #1, and that's undisputed.

It seems like every 5th thread is arguing over Wilson's rank among other quarterbacks.

Well, it is a football discussion board.

 

[lukerguy]

I get that, but it's been discussed at nauseum.

 

[kearly]

Actually that is in correct he is not in a offense that boosts efficiency, he is in an offense that requires efficiency. For example


If you through 25 times a game and you start 1-10 you have to go 15-15 on the next 15 to get to 64%.
If you through 35 times a game and you start 1-10 you can go 22-25 and get to 64+% so you have more margin for error.

So again less throws means less margin for error. That is not good for efficiency.

You could say through out all the other QBs they are in offenses that throw a lot so they will get a lot of yards, really.

I wasn't basing my argument on throwing volume.

My point was more along the lines that opposing defenses are putting 8 in the box to stop Lynch, while Wilson is throwing most of his passes on play-action when the defense is thinking "run." Seattle led the NFL last season in play-action throw percentage, by a decently large margin, too.

We know this impacts a QBs efficiency. Look at Andrew Luck at Stanford vs. Indy. At Stanford he was in almost the same kind of system Russ is now, and he put up monster passer ratings. At Indy, where he must force more throws and generally faces a defense that is keying on Indy throwing the ball, his efficiency numbers have dropped dramatically.

Alex Smith pre and post Harbaugh is a great example of this as well.

You could also look at Wilson's numbers at NC State (underwhelming throw first team) vs. Wisconsin (overwhelming run first team). Wilson's numbers exploded when he went to Wisconsin because the Badgers were a team that ran the ball to set up the pass instead of vice-versa. Whichever you are feared and do less of, that is where you probably have the best efficiency. Just look at how efficient Detroit and Denver's RBs were last season with teams keying on Manning and Stafford, or Foles and Smith with defenses keying on McCoy and Charles. The smarter teams know how to take advantage how a defense game plans them, and Seattle is one such team.

I don't think this makes Wilson any less awesome as a QB, but if we are grading these QBs fairly who all play in different situations we should take these kind of things into account. Of course, having Luck higher than Wilson is a stretch, but I do think if Luck was our QB his numbers would be pretty close to Wilson's. That said, I agree that Luck is over-rated because of who he is, not because of what he's done.

 

[Anthony!]

Actually that is in correct he is not in a offense that boosts efficiency, he is in an offense that requires efficiency. For example


If you through 25 times a game and you start 1-10 you have to go 15-15 on the next 15 to get to 64%.
If you through 35 times a game and you start 1-10 you can go 22-25 and get to 64+% so you have more margin for error.

So again less throws means less margin for error. That is not good for efficiency.

You could say through out all the other QBs they are in offenses that throw a lot so they will get a lot of yards, really.

I wasn't basing my argument on throwing volume.

My point was more along the lines that opposing defenses are putting 8 in the box to stop Lynch, while Wilson is throwing most of his passes on play-action when the defense is thinking "run." Seattle led the NFL last season in play-action throw percentage, by a decently large margin, too.

We know this impacts a QBs efficiency. Look at Andrew Luck at Stanford vs. Indy. At Stanford he was in almost the same kind of system Russ is now, and he put up monster passer ratings. At Indy, where he must force more throws and generally faces a defense that is keying on Indy throwing the ball, his efficiency numbers have dropped dramatically.

Alex Smith pre and post Harbaugh is a great example of this as well.

You could also look at Wilson's numbers at NC State (underwhelming throw first team) vs. Wisconsin (overwhelming run first team). Wilson's numbers exploded when he went to Wisconsin because the Badgers the run set up the pass instead of vice-versa.

I don't think this makes Wilson any less awesome as a QB, but if we are grading these QBs fairly who all play in different situations we should take these kind of things into account. Of course, having Luck higher than Wilson is a stretch, but I do think if Luck was our QB his numbers would be pretty close to Wilson's. That said, I agree that Luck is over-rated because of who he is, not because of what he's done.

Ahh but opposing defenses are not pulling 8 in the box all the time, and in fact given we have been a run, run pass for most of our fist half's the defense knows exactly what we are doing to include when we pass.

If we are grading these QBs fairly we must also take into account that most play in pass happy offenses, most play in the AFC were it is much easier, all have much better pass blocking o-lines, and most have better WRs, you see all that must go into the equation as well, and given that they more than out weight the perceived 8 man in the box stuff.

 

[kearly]

Ahh but opposing defenses are not pulling 8 in the box all the time, and in fact given we have been a run, run pass for most of our fist half's the defense knows exactly what we are doing to include when we pass.

Teams stack the box against our O. If you haven't noticed this I don't know what to tell you.

If we are grading these QBs fairly we must also take into account that most play in pass happy offenses, most play in the AFC were it is much easier, all have much better pass blocking o-lines, and most have better WRs, you see all that must go into the equation as well, and given that they more than out weight the perceived 8 man in the box stuff.

I agree and actually mentioned a few of those things already. But you probably didn't notice because you are in argumentative mode.

 

[kearly]

I get that, but it's been discussed at nauseum.

No disrespect intended, I love this place, but 75% of the posts at .net this time of year I open just to close so that they'll turn grey and I can easily skip over them in the future. People make posts about it being 12:12 o'clock this time of year (sorry Aros, just the first example I thought of).

Wilson's perception nationally is a valid and intellectual topic that could lead to potentially interesting and informative debate or discussion. It's also relatively unlikely to cause pissing matches, which makes it infinitely preferable to posts about athlete tweets, etc.

So, I don't really see what your issue is. I'm also a firm believer that if a topic is not for you, it's poor manners to dump on the thread in disapproval. Just close the browser and read a different topic like most everyone else.

 

[halfrack]

Jaws, living up to his nickname. Just trying to piss off the best fans in the league. Looks like it worked. Now he thinks he matters again, he drew the ire of the 12s. He doesn't matter. It's just words, stupid words. I say they don't count.

 

[WilsonMVP]

Actually that is in correct he is not in a offense that boosts efficiency, he is in an offense that requires efficiency. For example


If you through 25 times a game and you start 1-10 you have to go 15-15 on the next 15 to get to 64%.
If you through 35 times a game and you start 1-10 you can go 22-25 and get to 64+% so you have more margin for error.

So again less throws means less margin for error. That is not good for efficiency.

You could say through out all the other QBs they are in offenses that throw a lot so they will get a lot of yards, really.

I wasn't basing my argument on throwing volume.

My point was more along the lines that opposing defenses are putting 8 in the box to stop Lynch, while Wilson is throwing most of his passes on play-action when the defense is thinking "run." Seattle led the NFL last season in play-action throw percentage, by a decently large margin, too.

We know this impacts a QBs efficiency. Look at Andrew Luck at Stanford vs. Indy. At Stanford he was in almost the same kind of system Russ is now, and he put up monster passer ratings. At Indy, where he must force more throws and generally faces a defense that is keying on Indy throwing the ball, his efficiency numbers have dropped dramatically.

Alex Smith pre and post Harbaugh is a great example of this as well.

You could also look at Wilson's numbers at NC State (underwhelming throw first team) vs. Wisconsin (overwhelming run first team). Wilson's numbers exploded when he went to Wisconsin because the Badgers were a team that ran the ball to set up the pass instead of vice-versa. Whichever you are feared and do less of, that is where you probably have the best efficiency. Just look at how efficient Detroit and Denver's RBs were last season with teams keying on Manning and Stafford, or Foles and Smith with defenses keying on McCoy and Charles. The smarter teams know how to take advantage how a defense game plans them, and Seattle is one such team.

I don't think this makes Wilson any less awesome as a QB, but if we are grading these QBs fairly who all play in different situations we should take these kind of things into account. Of course, having Luck higher than Wilson is a stretch, but I do think if Luck was our QB his numbers would be pretty close to Wilson's. That said, I agree that Luck is over-rated because of who he is, not because of what he's done.

Not to rain on your parade but Wilson had a 191.8 QB rating his last year in college. Luck had 169.7 which was a tad lower than the year before. They were both in very similar offenses except for that was Wilsons first year in that offense and school.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

Didn't Jaworski have Russ rated one slot below Matt Ryan? If so, my comment is "c'mon man".
All your points are well taken kearly but there's no way in hell Matt Ryan is a better QB than Russ. So move him up one slot at least in my eyes.

 

[Largent80]

[youtube]LVf5Cr4M-F8[/youtube]

 

[Anthony!]

Ahh but opposing defenses are not pulling 8 in the box all the time, and in fact given we have been a run, run pass for most of our fist half's the defense knows exactly what we are doing to include when we pass.

Teams stack the box against our O. If you haven't noticed this I don't know what to tell you.

If we are grading these QBs fairly we must also take into account that most play in pass happy offenses, most play in the AFC were it is much easier, all have much better pass blocking o-lines, and most have better WRs, you see all that must go into the equation as well, and given that they more than out weight the perceived 8 man in the box stuff.

I agree and actually mentioned a few of those things already. But you probably didn't notice because you are in argumentative mode.

so when we are in obvious passing downs they are still stacking the box? Really and yet Rw still gets it done. Not to mention it is Rw who calls the plays, he gest 3-4 plays sent to him he decided what to call run or Pass, so them stacking the box means little. I am pretty sure any QB in the league will change to a pass play if they stack the box and go run when they do not.

 

[kearly]

so when we are in obvious passing downs they are still stacking the box?

Oh boy. Anyone else want to explain it to this guy?

Anyway... let's change gears here. Where would you rank Wilson? I'd probably put him 5th or 6th. What is the floor for what you think is a fair ranking for Wilson? I'd say 9th and I only say that because there are so many amazing QBs right now.

 

[kearly]

Not to rain on your parade but Wilson had a 191.8 QB rating his last year in college. Luck had 169.7 which was a tad lower than the year before. They were both in very similar offenses except for that was Wilsons first year in that offense and school.

I think you are actually making my point, not contradicting it. Both QBs were outstanding in a run-first offense. Wilson was a little extra outstanding in 2011 thanks to a then record setting streak without an interception which occurred during that particular season. Luck had very similar numbers but didn't have the outlier season for interceptions that Wilson had. Point is, both were really, really good in that offense.

 

[Anthony!]

so when we are in obvious passing downs they are still stacking the box?

Oh boy. Anyone else want to explain it to this guy?

Anyway... let's change gears here. Where would you rank Wilson? I'd probably put him 5th or 6th. What is the floor for what you think is a fair ranking for Wilson? I'd say 9th and I only say that because there are so many amazing QBs right now.

Dude I understand what you are saying but I do not believe it is happening as much as you think. I put RW 5th

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

...........Where would you rank Wilson? I'd probably put him 5th or 6th.......

That's my feeling too. Certainly I'd put him above #8 ranked Matt Ryan as I mentioned above and I'd put him above Phillip Rivers who was 7th I believe. He's smarter with the football, no matter the situation, than both of those guys.

 

[bmorepunk]

If I were a sports journalist, I would rank Wilson 17th so that I could get an immense amount of revenue from people that can't control themselves.