Ron Jaworski's 2014 top QB countdown - Russell Wilson #9

[kearly]

Dude I understand what you are saying but I do not believe it is happening as much as you think.

If we were talking 2012 I would agree, but stuffing Lynch seemed to be the major priority of every defense Seattle faced in 2013, and defenses were quite open in saying this before games, including Denver before XLVIII. Which made sense, Seattle was #1 in the NFL in rushing percentage and #1 by a lot in 1st down rushing percentage last season. Eight in the box or not, teams were keying on Lynch which has additional benefits to a QB, such as drawing fewer nickle defenses.

 

[Anthony!]

Dude I understand what you are saying but I do not believe it is happening as much as you think.

If we were talking 2012 I would agree, but stuffing Lynch seemed to be the major priority of every defense Seattle faced in 2013, and defenses were quite open in saying this before games, including Denver before XLVIII. Which made sense, Seattle was #1 in the NFL in rushing percentage and #1 by a lot in 1st down rushing percentage last season. Eight in the box or not, teams were keying on Lynch which has additional benefits to a QB, such as drawing fewer nickle defenses.

That's all true except without RWs rushing we are not #1 and in fact middle of the pact and most teams identified they need to keep Rw from running, and again do to our predictable play calling most teams knew when we were running and when we were passing, so on running plays they would stack the box some, and on passing downs not stack the box. As to the keying on Lynch or not, not sure it really matters because as I said great, but that does not make up for the better o-lines, wrs, and passing offense other QB have.

 

[kearly]

That's all true except without RWs rushing we are not #1 and in fact middle of the pact.

Well, that's just flat incorrect. Seattle's non-QB carries are among the highest in the league, and Lynch in particular leads the NFL in carries over the past three seasons.

I agree with the latter half of what you said, that's the reason why I have Wilson 5th or 6th despite his passer rating being only 8th last season. He made chicken salad out of chicken shit on many occasions.

 

[ZagHawk]

I know our O Line was weak a large portion of the season which contributed to RW running for his life on so many plays. That being said, the middle of the season he definitely didn't look like a top 5 QB perhaps not a top10. So I'm okay with the ranking. RW will continue to get better. I think by declaring he's a top 5 QB next to Brady, Manning, Brees in RW second year is just disrespectful to those other QBs. I love RW, he's a great QB who I think can and will become Elite, but he's not there yet. That's my 2 cents.

 

[Anthony!]

That's all true except without RWs rushing we are not #1 and in fact middle of the pact.

Well, that's just flat incorrect. Seattle's non-QB carries are among the highest in the league, and Lynch in particular leads the NFL in carries over the past three seasons.

I agree with the latter half of what you said, that's the reason why I have Wilson 5th or 6th despite his passer rating being only 8th last season. He made chicken salad out of chicken shit on many occasions.

Dude you really should look at the stats before you write
here is a easy subset just looking at a few teams, take out the Qbs rushing and here is what happens


Denver 1873 yards 461 attempts 4.1 ypa
GB 1955 yards 412 attempts 4.7 ypa
Detroit 1723 yards 408 attempts 4.3 ypa
NE 2047 yards 438 attempts 4.67 ypa
Seattle 1649 yards 413 attempts 3.99 ypa


That is just 5 teams, and we end up low remember Rw had well 539 yards rushing and we as a team only had 2188 so without RW that leaves 1649 as you can see above that difference makes the teams above have more rushing yards.

Other teams who had more yards then us without the starting QB are

Philly
Buff
SF
Was
NYJ
Minn
SD
Chicago

So that would be 12 teams that would be above us making us 13th which is middle of the pack.

 

[Anthony!]

I know our O Line was weak a large portion of the season which contributed to RW running for his life on so many plays. That being said, the middle of the season he definitely didn't look like a top 5 QB perhaps not a top10. So I'm okay with the ranking. RW will continue to get better. I think by declaring he's a top 5 QB next to Brady, Manning, Brees in RW second year is just disrespectful to those other QBs. I love RW, he's a great QB who I think can and will become Elite, but he's not there yet. That's my 2 cents.

You do realize the middle of the season is games 6-10, you realize we went 6-0 during that time and RWs lowest QB rating during that time was 91.3 and in fact his qb rating in those games were 98.5, 122.1, 117.6, 91.3, 134.6, and the 2 games after or games 11-12 he was at 151.4 and 139.6? You mean towards the end specifically games 13-16 were he had QB rating of 81.8, 86.3, 49.6 and 102.1. Of course that was a spread against 4 top 10 defenses. With 85 being the line for good QB play Rw only went below it 5 times, and was above 100 8 times. Comparing to Luck who was above 100 4 times and below 85 8 times, Brady was above 100 4 times, and below 85 7 times. So Rw actually did very well. Brees was above 100 8 times and below 85 5 times hmm just like RW.

 

[WilsonMVP]

Not to rain on your parade but Wilson had a 191.8 QB rating his last year in college. Luck had 169.7 which was a tad lower than the year before. They were both in very similar offenses except for that was Wilsons first year in that offense and school.

I think you are actually making my point, not contradicting it. Both QBs were outstanding in a run-first offense. Wilson was a little extra outstanding in 2011 thanks to a then record setting streak without an interception which occurred during that particular season. Luck had very similar numbers but didn't have the outlier season for interceptions that Wilson had. Point is, both were really, really good in that offense.

I just found it interesting...Luck was actually 5th that year behind Wilson, RG3, Moore, and Keenum.

Wilson actually is THE most effecient QB to EVER play Football in FBS. Single greatest college QB rating season. I was pointing out in my earlier post that it was also his first year at that program and in that offense in which he had to relearn an entire playbook. Unlike Luck who was at Stanford for his whole time.

This would actually be the counterargument to anyone who claims Luck would be even better than Wilson on the Seahawks when under similar circumstances in college Wilson cant even be touched by Luck. In the 2 common opponents they played Wilson smoked Luck

 

[Scottemojo]

That's all true except without RWs rushing we are not #1 and in fact middle of the pact.

Well, that's just flat incorrect. Seattle's non-QB carries are among the highest in the league, and Lynch in particular leads the NFL in carries over the past three seasons.

I agree with the latter half of what you said, that's the reason why I have Wilson 5th or 6th despite his passer rating being only 8th last season. He made chicken salad out of chicken shit on many occasions.

Dude you really should look at the stats before you write
here is a easy subset just looking at a few teams, take out the Qbs rushing and here is what happens


Denver 1873 yards 461 attempts 4.1 ypa
GB 1955 yards 412 attempts 4.7 ypa
Detroit 1723 yards 408 attempts 4.3 ypa
NE 2047 yards 438 attempts 4.67 ypa
Seattle 1649 yards 413 attempts 3.99 ypa


That is just 5 teams, and we end up low remember Rw had well 539 yards rushing and we as a team only had 2188 so without RW that leaves 1649 as you can see above that difference makes the teams above have more rushing yards.

Other teams who had more yards then us without the starting QB are

Philly
Buff
SF
Was
NYJ
Minn
SD
Chicago

So that would be 12 teams that would be above us making us 13th which is middle of the pack.

So what happens when you make that into a percentage of total snaps? It looks to me like those first 4 teams you list run a high volume offense, and IIRC Seattle took the lowest number of snaps on the season.
Denver 675 pass attempts. 1156 total plays.
Green Bay 570 pass attempts. 1074 plays. (with Aaron Rodgers out for a time, or the numbers would be higher)
Detroit 634 pass attempts. 1102 plays.
New England 628 pass attempts. 1128 plays.
Seattle 420 pass attempts. 973 plays. One of these teams is not like the others?

Sure, total number of runs put Seattle in the middle of the pack. But when measured vs total plays, Seattle is one of two teams that ran more than they passed. In a low volume offense.

Context is everything.

 

[Anthony!]

That's all true except without RWs rushing we are not #1 and in fact middle of the pact.

Well, that's just flat incorrect. Seattle's non-QB carries are among the highest in the league, and Lynch in particular leads the NFL in carries over the past three seasons.

I agree with the latter half of what you said, that's the reason why I have Wilson 5th or 6th despite his passer rating being only 8th last season. He made chicken salad out of chicken shit on many occasions.

Dude you really should look at the stats before you write
here is a easy subset just looking at a few teams, take out the Qbs rushing and here is what happens


Denver 1873 yards 461 attempts 4.1 ypa
GB 1955 yards 412 attempts 4.7 ypa
Detroit 1723 yards 408 attempts 4.3 ypa
NE 2047 yards 438 attempts 4.67 ypa
Seattle 1649 yards 413 attempts 3.99 ypa


That is just 5 teams, and we end up low remember Rw had well 539 yards rushing and we as a team only had 2188 so without RW that leaves 1649 as you can see above that difference makes the teams above have more rushing yards.

Other teams who had more yards then us without the starting QB are

Philly
Buff
SF
Was
NYJ
Minn
SD
Chicago

So that would be 12 teams that would be above us making us 13th which is middle of the pack.

So what happens when you make that into a percentage of total snaps? It looks to me like those first 4 teams you list run a high volume offense, and IIRC Seattle took the lowest number of snaps on the season.
Denver 675 pass attempts. 1156 total plays.
Green Bay 570 pass attempts. 1074 plays. (with Aaron Rodgers out for a time, or the numbers would be higher)
Detroit 634 pass attempts. 1102 plays.
New England 628 pass attempts. 1128 plays.
Seattle 420 pass attempts. 973 plays. One of these teams is not like the others?

Sure, total number of runs put Seattle in the middle of the pack. But when measured vs total plays, Seattle is one of two teams that ran more than they passed. In a low volume offense.

Context is everything.

Dude you measure a run game by yards not attempts. If you only avg 2 ypc but run the ball 20 more times than nay other team that is not going to bring 8 in the box. Its about success running the ball not attempts, and as I showed they had more yards and if you look at the initial 5 not only do they get more yads but their ypc are higher. Not to mention if your run game is sucking teams are not going to stack the box. While lynch was the #6 rusher he actually did not have a great season avg 4.2 ypc, which is okay, but he has 9 games were he avg under 4 ypc, and 13 game sunder 100 yards, and 9 game sunder 90 yards. Team were not having to stack the box to stop him much last year. Example first game against Carolina he only had 17 carries, for 2.5 ypc, Carolina stopped stacking the box in qtr 2. Teams may have been starting stacking the box,,,, but after a while of him struggling which happened more often than not, they stopped stacking the box. or went to a run blitz designed to stop the run by both ML and RW and get pressure on the QB before he can get rid of the ball, given how hard it was for our WR to get open.

The point is the stacking of the box just to stop our RB run game is not as prevalent as you think. I mean Denver stopped it after the first Qtr and it did not matter much. Add to that we are pretty easy to figure out in the first qtr run, run , pass, its not until the 2nd qtr and we are passed the scripted plays we get tricky.

 

[kearly]

We were talking about play call percentage, not rushing yard totals. Seattle's rushing plays as a percentage are one of the highest in the league. That is a fact. Even when you take Wilson's 92 carries out, it is still true. Lynch has the most rush attempts of any RB the last three years, and that doesn't even factor that Seattle has fewer total plays than just about any other team during that period.

When a defense is deciding whether he's going to key on a RB or not in a given play, it has nothing to do with counting stats and everything to do with the probability that the play will in fact be a run. Otherwise, teams would be keying on guys like Knowshon Moreno or Reggie Bush just because those offenses rushed for a lot of yards last season. Which of course, they do not.

 

[General Manager]

I haven't seen the list where did he put Romo ?

 

[Anthony!]

You are twisting the facts to fit your argument Anthony. Suddenly it's about yards now? We were talking about play call percentage, not rushing yard totals. Seattle's rushing plays as a percentage are one of the highest in the league. That is a fact. Even when you take Wilson's 92 carries out, it is still true.

no you are talking play calling percentage I am talking impact on the game, calling a lot of runs if those runs yield few yards is not going to put 8 in the box, only success in running the ball will put 8 in the box and as I outlined there are a lot of teams that have more success then us, once you remove the QB. I mean if you are a running team I might start with 8 in the box but if you have little success they are going to pull back to 7 if still limited success then back to 6 and so on. Just because a team runs 60% of the time does not mean I am going to put 8 in the box if I Can handle it with 5 or 6 knowing eventually they will pass. Teams know Rw can carry this team to wins by passing, so they are not stacking the box near as much as you think. Point in case the panthers game, in the first qtr when everyone knows we are run, run pass. The very first series we got backed up inside our 10, and yet only 5 in the box on the first play, then they went 6 for play 2-penlaty so play 2 again, so now we are inside our 5, 2nd down and 5 in the box, 3rd down and 10 now we get 8 in the box and it was a passing down and pass play. N fact the only time they put 8 in the box in the Panthers game was on 3rd and long and 3rd and short. That is an example, teams do not play 8 in the box as much as you think and when they do Rw is just as much a reason as lynch. Not to mention if you read my post with the listed teams our attempts even go down to the point were ne And Denver had more, Lynch may have been amongst the post in attempts over the last 3 years but we are talking about last year, and we are talking team not just 1 back. Also Lynchs attempts have gone down every year Rw has been with us 315 in 2012, 301 in 2013, teams know that too. However again it is about the team running game of which Rw is a huge part of it, and again teams do not pu 8 in the box as much as you think. As to the play action so? Every team runs play action we may run the most but every team runs it, we run as much to give Rw extra time due to our 32nd ranked pass blocking as anything.

 

[kearly]

I just found it interesting...Luck was actually 5th that year behind Wilson, RG3, Moore, and Keenum.

Wilson actually is THE most effecient QB to EVER play Football in FBS. Single greatest college QB rating season. I was pointing out in my earlier post that it was also his first year at that program and in that offense in which he had to relearn an entire playbook. Unlike Luck who was at Stanford for his whole time.

This would actually be the counterargument to anyone who claims Luck would be even better than Wilson on the Seahawks when under similar circumstances in college Wilson cant even be touched by Luck. In the 2 common opponents they played Wilson smoked Luck

I agree 100%. But you can say all that and still give Luck his due.

 

[Anthony!]

I just found it interesting...Luck was actually 5th that year behind Wilson, RG3, Moore, and Keenum.

Wilson actually is THE most effecient QB to EVER play Football in FBS. Single greatest college QB rating season. I was pointing out in my earlier post that it was also his first year at that program and in that offense in which he had to relearn an entire playbook. Unlike Luck who was at Stanford for his whole time.

This would actually be the counterargument to anyone who claims Luck would be even better than Wilson on the Seahawks when under similar circumstances in college Wilson cant even be touched by Luck. In the 2 common opponents they played Wilson smoked Luck

I agree 100%. But you can say all that and still give Luck his due.

I agree I do give Luck his due, he is a good QB with potential but truthfully he has played avg at best so far, I mean 57% complt% is not good, it is not even avg, qb rating of 81.5 also below avg. And he is doig it in the AFC a much weaker defensive division, with a top 10 pass blocking o-line a top 10 wr corps. I give him his due because I think he will eventually figure it out, RW already has.

 

[HawKnPeppa]

Surprised he put him in the top 10. Guess that shows Jaws is trying to give him some credit for the past season. Must hurt him to have to put Kaep at #12.

Must hurt him to put Wilson at 9, as an obligatory Super Bowl nod. Wilson will never fit his metric.

 

[HawKnPeppa]

Anthony... can you stay on subject rather than trying to win a debate?

 

[SalishHawkFan]

Wilson finished 9th in DYAR and 8th in DVOA. So Jaws rating sounds fine to me.

 

[Anthony!]

Anthony... can you stay on subject rather than trying to win a debate?

I am on subject, He made a statement why #9 is okay for Rw, based on efficiency and stuff, I disagreed and said why and defended it, he came back at me and I defended my stance, and will continue to. This topic is about Rw being #9 on jaws list, ,he stated why he was okay with it, and I disagreed and stated why I am on topic.

 

[brimsalabim]

I heard Jaws talking about this with Brock and Salk and he added that in the Super Owl Russ was "seeing everything " from the pocket and if that was because the game was just slowing down for him in the pocket then watch out NFL.

 

[WilsonMVP]

I heard Jaws talking about this with Brock and Salk and he added that in the Super Owl Russ was "seeing everything " from the pocket and if that was because the game was just slowing down for him in the pocket then watch out NFL.

The percy harvin effect