bmorepunk":2n2sy4jd said:
Maelstrom787":2n2sy4jd said:
No offense meant, but that is really really really not at all what I'm saying. Just combatting a single inaccurate yet pervasive falsehood (run run pass being too prevalent in the Seahawks offense) that gets posted ad nauseam.
I did some analysis I think two seasons ago where I pulled the entire season of play sequences and the selection of R/R/P was something like 20-25% of the play calls. I don't know how many times people complained about R/R/P in a single game and I'd go pull the data from that game and it wasn't.
Maybe accurate descriptions are too hard to think about or type out for some people.
If we're gonna pull numbers and statistics into this, you actually don't need to be 50.1%+ to be a majority or higher chance. If we're talking just the first 3 downs, you have 8 possibilities (if we're going to keep this to run or pass)..simple math 2^3 = 8. If every potential 3 down series was done equally, each possible 3 down series call would be 12.5% (1/8). So that being said if R/R/P is indeed 20-25% that in some cases is indeed DOUBLE the percentage of every other possibility. In fact once something else takes up the 20-25%...so lets just bring down the remaining percentage of plays to 77.5% (Meaning you're going R/R/P at 22.5%). Take that 77.5% divided by the remaining 7 other possible 3 down series, each of the remaining 7 series now will only have 11.07% probability of happening. So at 22.5% R/R/P vs 11.07% for every other outcome. You indeed are going R/R/P twice as many times as any other possible series.
I forgot the exact numbers but I was with a doctor recently and he was mentioning about how 30% of Asians end up with Diabetes. 15% of Caucasians will end up Diabetes. Yes 30% does not mean the majority of Asians will get diabetes, however it does mean that if you are an asian you are twice as likely as your caucasian friends stastically speaking...to end up with Diabetes.
I also would be curious to know how often R/R/P or any 3 down series where running was done twice (vs once) what that percentage looks like especially in the first half of the game. All this leading to the common criticisms where if the team has become predictable, it is that much easier for opposing defenses to scheme against in the first half, potentially putting your team in the hole to start a game requiring a second half that a) relies on a run game that FINALLY breaks through (provided you aren't in a hole and need to abandon said run game) or b) You are in a 2-3 score hole and now for sure need to have heroics we have seen with RW needing to score 2-3 TDs in a very fast amount of time with no room for mistakes or the game is over.