Scouting the Panthers: an inside edge on how to beat our ass

[SalishHawkFan]

I've just checked on Carolina's stats. Even in their losses, the last half of the season they've been beastly against the run. Comparing that to their DVOA gives one pause. Overall, their defense is only 15th, but weighted DVOA, which looks at how they've played for the last half of the season, they're 9th. Against the pass, for the season, they are 9th. Now it says that for the season they are 22nd against the run. There is no weighted listing for rush or pass separately, but looking at their games, they've held absolutely everybody to under 100 yds rushing, including Philly to 39, in the last half of the season. Want to guess why their Weighted DVOA jumped up so much? They've been playing very good defensively the last half of the season.

Meanwhile, they've been doing just as the OP said offensively since they've dumped Williams and gone with Stewart: they've been running the ball effectively. Unfortunately for them, we don't allow that, but mobile QB's give us headaches, so expect Newton to get his yards.

Which means we can expect another low scoring, knock down drag out fight like we usually have with these guys. But it's in our house this time so there's that.

 

[SupersonicSeahawkz]

OK, new players are a plus going into this situation?

Let me remind you of what Carolina is facing. Seattle was far from healthy and firing on offense and defense, but that is not the focus of my topic.

Carolina Roster has never played Seattle in Seattle.
Drew B, aaron rodgers tried to Down play the impact of the wall of sound for every offensive snap. Cam does not know the frustration, the pressure, and the heaviness of playing QB in that place, under the lights, in the rain against that defense, with the 12 making it impossible to hear your own scream.

Add the fact that the team and new players have "never been there before." Meaning never played on the road in the playoffs. Never played in seattle, never played at this high stakes against a Battle tested NFL champion that has played 6 top ten defenses in a row. Cam is hurting, his mechanics are poor, causing him to be inaccurate. Carolina's special teams is not special at all. Take away the TE and Benjamin and say good bye to the passing game.

Carolina is facing more then the Seattle Seahawks, they are facing a moment that is bigger than anything this panther team has ever faced.

Last year's 49ers game was at home and doesn't match the pressure cooker that Carolina will play in this Saturday. So far Seattle hasn't lost at home when the stakes are this high. Seattle has proven in even bigger games last year that they can, will, and excel in what is known as a championship opportunity.

This is not 10 am, cross the country, regular session road game.

This is a defending nfl Champs at home, well rested, healthy team, that Seahawks haters want to fail and with the chip on our shoulder that we don't belong, that Seattle got lucky will make sure we don't over look anybody.

 

[hoxrox]

Stewart and Newton running, with some zone read plays will be your best shot at keeping the game close. Protect the football, and hope Stewart can break a few tackles - Jamal Charles style - and you guys have a chance.

However, if your o-line gets into false start situations due to the crowd noise, and Newton starts throwing picks, it's game over.

 

[AROS]

thanks for the opportunity to opine, win or loss i'll be back here saturday night.

For that I have no doubt. May more opposing fans follow your lead. Cheers.

 

[kearly]

Wasn't the first meeting the one where Wilson set a career high for passes that were off the mark? Wilson shook off the bad throws a month ago. Seattle has averaged over 22 points a game the last six weeks playing mostly great defensive teams. I think they can get to 20 in this game, and if Carolina's run D reverts to its early season struggles this will be a blowout.

The only way Carolina gets the 20+ points they will need is if they run the ball effectively on a very good run defense. I have a hard time seeing Newton doing much in the air, especially since Seattle's pass rush vs. Carolina's pass protection is going to be a huge mismatch in Seattle's favor.

I could see Carolina getting over 100 yards rushing, but they will probably need 200 to win. It could happen, but I feel pretty safe in this one.

 

[lukerguy]

Great write up. Thanks bud.

The key for you to beat Seattle will be with Jon Stewart and Newton and shortening the game by running the ball to keep it close. See NFCC games versus 49ers, they pulled out all the stops to get Kaepernick into running situations never seen before. If you have a turnover or two in the first quarter, it's over. It would be for most teams at CLINK, let alone a team prone to turnovers and sacks. Cam has to have the best game of his career to win. I've known him to be quite inaccurate; if his passes are even a foot or two off, it's game over.

The thing i've been most surprised about over the last month is the Panther's OLINE. I watched them a few times this year and they always looked like they were getting beat like they stole something. All of a sudden, they play the game of their life versus a very good Cards DLINE and scheme- I am still scratching my head on that one. I don't think you've had many significant Oline changes in the past month have you?

Anyways, thanks again for the write up.

 

[phillyb]

The thing i've been most surprised about over the last month is the Panther's OLINE. I watched them a few times this year and they always looked like they were getting beat like they stole something. All of a sudden, they play the game of their life versus a very good Cards DLINE and scheme- I am still scratching my head on that one. I don't think you've had many significant Oline changes in the past month have you?

somewhere in that wall of text i talked about our offensive line changes. we dumped both our starting guards and our right tackle and found guys that are, astonishingly, more than just sufficient, they're kicking ass in all phases of the game. it's really incredible to behold, especially in contrast with the line earlier this year. byron bell still sucks, but we've all accepted that as a constant of the universe. physical laws state that byron bell's mass cannot deter opposite reactions. i'm no physicist but i'm pretty sure than means he sucks ass.

but yeah 3/5 guys are new and that's why we suddenly look competent.

 

[BlueTalon]

I know a lot of you guys are overlooking us, and maybe for good reason.

We're not overlooking you. We're looking right at you.


Here, kitty kitty kitty.

 

[Mick063]

I know Panther fans hate to hear this but I wouldn't write it if I didn't truly believe it.

Wilson > Newton

For one reason only. The greater the pressure, the better the opponent, the bigger the game, the higher the stakes....... the better Wilson plays. He is the definition of rising to the occasion. He isn't Joe Montana yet, but he is every bit as clutch.

This is the playoffs. Russell is the true Superman now.

 

[HawKnPeppa]

OK, new players are a plus going into this situation?

Let me remind you of what Carolina is facing. Seattle was far from healthy and firing on offense and defense, but that is not the focus of my topic.

Carolina Roster has never played Seattle in Seattle.
Drew B, aaron rodgers tried to Down play the impact of the wall of sound for every offensive snap. Cam does not know the frustration, the pressure, and the heaviness of playing QB in that place, under the lights, in the rain against that defense, with the 12 making it impossible to hear your own scream.

Add the fact that the team and new players have "never been there before." Meaning never played on the road in the playoffs. Never played in seattle, never played at this high stakes against a Battle tested NFL champion that has played 6 top ten defenses in a row. Cam is hurting, his mechanics are poor, causing him to be inaccurate. Carolina's special teams is not special at all. Take away the TE and Benjamin and say good bye to the passing game.

Carolina is facing more then the Seattle Seahawks, they are facing a moment that is bigger than anything this panther team has ever faced.

Last year's 49ers game was at home and doesn't match the pressure cooker that Carolina will play in this Saturday. So far Seattle hasn't lost at home when the stakes are this high. Seattle has proven in even bigger games last year that they can, will, and excel in what is known as a championship opportunity.

This is not 10 am, cross the country, regular session road game.

This is a defending nfl Champs at home, well rested, healthy team, that Seahawks haters want to fail and with the chip on our shoulder that we don't belong, that Seattle got lucky will make sure we don't over look anybody.

If you actually read the entire OP, it discusses football and familiarizes us with the state of their team, rather than comparing appendage length. Would it hurt to actually read what he wrote and respond in kind?

 

[SupersonicSeahawkz]

Hey hawk peppa. Sorry if you felt that way. I was reading what they have been saying on carolina huddle and the OP openly says that he is talking all sweet and buddy buddy so that if they win he can rub it in our faces or like he said "next week he will be farting on our woman," a guy even asked why he is being 2 faced about this and he jokingly responded that way. I don't take kindly to guys farting on my woman. :141847_bnono: :mrgreen:

It is cool for him to write this up and let us know what was up with Carolina when we played last, but nothing i wrote isn't true.

I believe that the 3 games in Carolina have nothing to do with this game because it isn't about how we played there. It's about how they will deal with us when they play on our terms.

If they are the hoosiers and step into the Clink and beat us, then cool I'll eat my crow, but like all the QB before, when they come to the Clink for the 1st time they usually go home shaking their heads with an L.

 

[SupersonicSeahawkz]

The common theme I have read from panther fans are:

1. Since all the 3 games in Carolina were close, playing in seattle will be close also. I disagree, but possible.

2. Carolina has improved and Seattle is the same team we were in Carolina.

As we know it works both ways.

3. New starters are a positive going into this playoff
game.

I disagree and that it is a negative to go into the Clink and not have the experience. As we have seen playing us twice in the Clink helps as opposed to never have played there before .

4. Our D can't stop their O. They will run all over us.

5.Our O can't score on their D. They will shut down
Marshawn and limit RW.

I have heard 1,2 before. 4, 5 all the time, but 3 bugged me and to me it is kinda underestimating the issue of playing in seattle and I can only imagine being a NFL opposing football player playing in my first game in seattle with all that comes with it in a do or die game.

If they step up and don't know any better and beat us, then i hope they go far. I think they won't be mentally tough enough to do it. Kinda like how mike Tyson getting in the ring and already knowing that as soon as Tyson Punches them in the mouth, they know they are in trouble.

 

[RunTheBall]

Too long didn't read, basically Cam Newton blows and will not beat us in Seattle. Expect at least 2 or 3 turnovers from the most overrated player in the league.

 

[tom sawyer]

It's a good thing Cam celebrated so much after winning a wildcard game over the Cards, because he will do no celebrating in Seattle, that's just not going to happen. Good team, sure, I respect all opponents, sure.

But your guys are goin' home Saturday night defeated and deflated!!

Thanks for playing!

 

[Melencause]

Good post. It's always encourage when the rest of the NFL can unite in common hatred of the cowboys.

 

[volsunghawk]

Too long didn't read, basically Cam Newton blows and will not beat us in Seattle. Expect at least 2 or 3 turnovers from the most overrated player in the league.

Huh? Percy's not playing in this game.

 

[panthers4life]

Another Panthers fan checking in here! PhillyB broke down our roster changes completely so there's little to be added in that department so here's a few random thoughts that could play a role in Saturday's outcome.

Confidence
Seattle - Why not? Defending champs, healthy, rested, best home field advantage in the league, #1 defense, have beat the Panthers four straight times, Panthers finished 7-8-1 in a putrid division. If the Panthers boasted all these advantages in confidence I would have little doubt of the outcome, Vegas agrees.

Carolina - In the NFL there are some basic formulas for winning. Play great D, run the ball, stop the run, win in the trenches. Teams that do this consistently win consistently and Carolina has been dominant for five games straight in these measurables. This success is downplayed by the quality of our opposition but from a confidence perspective our team and fans are feeling better right now than we did at 12-4 last year. We actually do have some weapons on both sides. Cam can be bad or GREAT, Kelvin, Olsen, JStew, revamped O-Line. On D, CJ, Star, KK, Ealy, some guy named Luke, Thomas Davis and a secondary that has played lights out in the win streak. This is not a roster devoid of talent or confidence, they will arrive ready to play.

We have one other advantage that no one can argue. ZERO expectations, no one expects us to win this game. There is far less pressure on Carolina than Seattle. We're playing with house money and were expected to be enjoying popcorn and golf by now. For Seattle the expectations are Superbowl or bust. Pressure alone won't change the outcome of the game but it can certainly magnify every little mistake. Somewhat of a comparison is Carolina going into the half down 14-13 to Arizona. We gave up 76 yards of offense for the ENTIRE game yet somehow trailed at half. Funny things happen in football and trailing at half against a team we were dominating left that pressure feeling hanging in the air. If we catch a few breaks, get a turnover at the right time we have a chance to make pressure a factor in the game.

I have nothing but RESPECT for Seattle. What an amazing organization you guys have developed into. Russell Wilson is a total class act and a tremendous face for the franchise. You have every reason to believe in your team and expect a W this Saturday.

I have every reason to enjoy watching the unexpected turn around of my team for at least one more game and hoping we can find some magic in the Clink this weekend.

Wouldn't wish you luck, but I do hope for a great game free of injuries!

 

[volsunghawk]

We have one other advantage that no one can argue. ZERO expectations, no one expects us to win this game. There is far less pressure on Carolina than Seattle. We're playing with house money and were expected to be enjoying popcorn and golf by now. For Seattle the expectations are Superbowl or bust. Pressure alone won't change the outcome of the game but it can certainly magnify every little mistake. ... If we catch a few breaks, get a turnover at the right time we have a chance to make pressure a factor in the game.

I recall many of us saying that exact same thing when we traveled to Chicago to play the Bears after we took down the Saints in 2010. I totally understand that argument and viewpoint.

But I feel that you're probably going to see a similar result to what we saw... a road loss to a team that was just better.

 

[HomerJHawk]

Good post. The basic formulas for winning are what we do well, as well. As far as the expectations of Superbowl or bust--that's from the media of course. We (the fans) want that too, but I can guarantee the Hawks are not looking past this game at all. They know the stakes. This IS their championship game. Our D will play lights out for the entire 60 mins. Will Carolina make some good plays? Of course, but there's 4 quarters, and this team finally knows how to play them. Start slow, finish strong (well, except for SB XLVIII).
I like your comment of there being less pressure on Carolina than Seattle. That certainly can be an edge. But playoffs in Seattle, well, the Hawks just have fun playing these games.

Best of luck to the Panthers!

 

[Panther Jase]

nice to see philly is capable of wall-o-texts on boards other than carolinahuddle.com