RichNhansom":1is8oqd3 said:
rideaducati":1is8oqd3 said:
Two years eh? It only took a decade of top 11 picks to get where they are now...
That's really the thing I see and don't understand how no 49ers fans seem to understand. The previous regime with the benefits of picking in the beginning of the first round for years brought in some unbelievable talent. Then add in some very smart GMing by McCloughan and Harbaugh walked into a team with Aldon Smith, Michael Crabtree, Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati, Ahmad Brooks, Vernon Davis, Frank Gore and Navaro Bowman. Imagine what Pete Carroll could have done with that group.
They also had guys like Goldson, Whitner and Delanie Walker who are now gone. Those guys weren't super stars but they are proving hard to replace. Reid has been technically as good as Goldson but has already had two concussions and is obviously not built for the smash mouth style of play Goldson brought and Vance McDonald has been a huge step back from Walker. They are hoping to replace Whitner but it is very likely their next strong safety will be another downgrade.
Justin Smith is probably their most important defensive player as we seen in 2012 when he was injured in the NE game and the entire defense went to crap and he turned 35 in April. Gore has been the heart and sole of that offense and turns 31 before the first preseason game. Boldin is 34 and very important to that offense and Goodwin their center is being replaced by Kilgore (IIRC), their secondary is being held together with bubble gum and happy thoughts, on and on.
I know they have their rose colored glasses on but that is a ton of talent to replace and those replacements will be the future of the Niners organization. They pretty much need to hit on every pick as if they were still picking 7th overall but the problem is they are not and age is creeping up on them at a fairly rapid rate.
If you listen to a Niner fan he will point out that the age difference is only about 2.5 years on average but he is ignoring the talent that is carrying that team is what is dragging that age barrier down and the guys who are helping it have yet to replace any of the starters at a similar level.
Since they have been picking late in the draft they have found one starter in Reid and they had to package multiple picks to move up in the draft to get him and he is still not yet an upgrade over Goldson and will never have the physical presence Goldson did. Sure they have guys waiting in the wings just like every team in the NFL but if you believe any Niner fan theirs are by far the best and it's not even debatable.
I don't think its that Niner fans don't understand this. We had to watch that roster get coached by inferior coaches and go nowhere.
What I think Seattle fans don't understand is that Niner fans are aware of the age and we have seen the team take chances on very talented players who they redshirt as rookies in order to get them later in the draft....IE trying to take top level talent later in the draft in order to maintain their talent level.
Will it work? That remains to be seen. They have also taken advantage of the fact that RB has become a de-valued position in the NFL and are taking advantage of teams stacking up to stop the pass. So is Seattle BTW.
What you also don't take into account is that the entire culture of the team has changed. Its not popular to say anything positive about Harbaugh here, but he turned the entire attitude of the franchise around. The coaching isn't just him either. He's brought in great coaches at just about every level.
The point I'm making here is that the team isn't just the sum of its parts. The change from Singletary to Harbaugh should show you that. Am I assuming that Hyde/Lattimore can totally replace Gore? That Carradine/Okoye/Ramsey/Dial/Lynch can replace Justin? No. Of course not. The Niners know that they don't really have to though. They just take players who can play those spots and can play them well. They then take the best player available when they draft.
Maybe they don't ever really replace Justin Smith, but maybe Jimmie Ward becomes a star FS. Maybe they don't really replace Gore but the tandem of Lattimore and Hyde is pretty good. Perhaps the run game improves for if for no other reason than there are a lot more passing targets and Kap improves his play with experience. There is no clone of Boldin, but you don't really clone guys anyway...another guy comes along with a different skillset who plays differently. That's OK. The team evolves. Hell, Boldin has only been there for a year and the team has been good for three. The team is different every single year.
Who knows. It's not always about a 1 to 1 replacement. Its about using the talents you have to their fullest.
When the Pats won their first SB they were not an offensive powerhouse. They won with D and an effective O. Over time, they transformed into a different team with different strengths. Over time, they lost their aging stars but still managed to remain a contender.
Some of you will argue that Kap isn't Brady. Not even going to argue that he is. All I'll say is that we don't know what he is yet and we don't know what the team will evolve into. All they can do is stockpile players and coach the guys they have.
This is why I think its folly to predict the downfall of ANY team that's good. Even predicting that people know exactly what a team will evolve into is a bad idea. Seattle will likely evolve as well as Wilson gets more experience and they are less able to lean on Lynch. That's OK. It doesn't mean they won't be as good. It means they will be different. Time will tell what that means exactly.
PS: McCloughan didn't draft Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati. Navorro Bowman, or Aldon Smith.
