This is the most pessimistic Take

[Mick063]

Why would I click on that article when I can get the same type of negativity on this forum? If I want to visit a web site to feel bad about my team, I don't have to go anywhere else.

 

[Superbowl 48]

Anythings possible, but not entirely sure, if the author of the article is to far off. I sense that most have a really good feeling about the draft, but the Seahawks may still need some time to meet expectations.

I would point to the offensive and defensive lines. When the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, they had an average offensive line and elite defensive line, the current Seahawks lines are bottom dwellers. Sure, they have good defensive backfield, and offensive weapons, but really think the Seahawks may get pushed around on both sides of the ball.

It wouldn't surprise me this will be a disappointing season, with many fire Pete threads, but who knows? I think the Jamal Adams and Geno Smith contracts will hurt the franchise, until those are cleared, don't see how this team will be dominant. Maybe in three years the Seahawks will be contenders, but I'm not drinking the Kool Aide this season.

Make sure your bar is stocked, it maybe a disappointing season.

30. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (DOWN 3)​

Projected Starting Lineup​

LT Charles Cross
LG Damien Lewis
C Evan Brown
RG Phil Haynes – Rotated off the bench at RG in 2022
RT Abraham Lucas

• Seattle’s line largely rests on the development of its young tackles, Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. While both played well early, each fell off substantially as their rookie seasons wore on.
• If those tackles play well, this ranking is too low. But if they don’t improve, this is a group that could struggle badly given its interior personnel.

2023 NFL offensive line rankings: Eagles lead the way, a healthy Cowboys unit climbs into top 10 | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

The Philadelphia Eagles boast the top-ranked offensive line in the NFL ahead of the 2023 season.

www.pff.com

30. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS​

During the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, the Seahawks had a chance to bolster their defensive line but elected to pick cornerback Devon Witherspoon instead. (Jalen Carter hint here)

While that represents an improvement for the Seattle secondary, the defensive line remains in a relatively poor position. Although the Seahawks have seven defensive linemen who played at least 250 snaps last season, only one of them ranked in the top 60 at his position in PFF grade.

Edge defender Uchenna Nwosu was easily the best player on the Seattle defensive line, as he picked up a PFF grade of 72.6 last season.

2023 NFL defensive line rankings: Philadelphia Eagles take the top spot, San Francisco 49ers come in at No. 2 | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

Here, we rank the league's defensive lines from 1 to 32, starting with the ever-dominant Eagles.

www.pff.com

 

[morgulon1]

That's not such an outrageous take. Vegas has our over/under wins at 8.5 and that article has us going 8-9, so it's right in line with what a lot of other people have us pegged. That doesn't mean that I agree with it, only that it is a viable scenario.

https://athlonsports.com/betting/2023-seattle-seahawks-win-total-over-under-odds#:~:text=Bookmakers%20are%20anticipating%20the%20Seattle%20Seahawks%20to%20be,to%20the%20nine%20games%20they%20won%20last%20season.

That's scary.

Vegas is very good at setting lines. I wonder what goes into their prognostication.
Injury? Geno regression? A defensive coordinator in way over his head?

 

[RiverDog]

That's scary.

Vegas is very good at setting lines. I wonder what goes into their prognostication.
Injury? Geno regression? A defensive coordinator in way over his head?

Bookies set their line depending on how the bets are coming it. Their goal is to balance out the number of bets on the two possible outcomes, so they don't have to pay out more than what they took in no matter which outcome is realized. They make their money by taking 5% off of all bets. Ideally, they'll end up with $5 million worth bet on over, $5 million on under, then they're guaranteed to make $500,000.

So, for example, if a lot of people start betting on the Hawks to finish with under 8.5 wins, they'll lower the over/under to 7.5 in order to encourage more bets on over.

When they initially establish a line, they'll factor in betting history. For example, even if all teams are considered equal talent wise, since the Cowboys are known for having a lot of optimistic bettors, they'll start them out higher than they would a team like the Lions or Browns who have a lot of pessimistic fans betting on them to lose. They try to anticipate how the bets will come in.

Same goes with establishing point spreads. They'll look at the betting history of each team and try to predict which team will be picked to win and set their betting line accordingly then adjust the point spread as the actual bets start coming in.

 

[RiverDog]

The worst case scenario is so much worse than finishing 8-9 - which is only minorly bad as an outcome.

The NFL has great parity and every year there are plenty of 2-8 teams which knock off 8-2 teams. Having a handful of key moments/plays/calls go against a team can be enough to swing multiple games in the wrong direction. Once you add in the possibility of injuries then the worst case scenario becomes competing with the Cardinals for the #1 overall pick.

The importance of recognizing the role of good and bad fortune now as a fan is to be less outcome dependent as the season unfolds. If we get a good outcome then it doesn't necessarily mean our FO is smarter than everybody else, and if we get a bad outcome it doesn't always mean everybody needs to be fired.

This is true.

Last season, there were 18 teams, over half of the league, who finished with W/L records at or between 10-7 and 7-10. This included the entire NFC South as well as our Seahawks. It's not an outrageous forecast, especially given our considerably tougher schedule. Last season, our final SOS was .462, second easiest in the NFC and forth easiest in the league.

Here's another publication that has us at 8.7 wins:

2024 NFL Strength Of Schedule, Teams Ranked for Regular Season

Ranking 2024 NFL strength of schedule for all 32 teams easiest to hardest, based on projected win totals for every opponent from Vegas oddsmakers.

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

 

[morgulon1]

Bookies set their line depending on how the bets are coming it. Their goal is to balance out the number of bets on the two possible outcomes, so they don't have to pay out more than what they took in no matter which outcome is realized. They make their money by taking 5% off of all bets. Ideally, they'll end up with $5 million worth bet on over, $5 million on under, then they're guaranteed to make $500,000.

So, for example, if a lot of people start betting on the Hawks to finish with under 8.5 wins, they'll lower the over/under to 7.5 in order to encourage more bets on over.

When they initially establish a line, they'll factor in betting history. For example, even if all teams are considered equal talent wise, since the Cowboys are known for having a lot of optimistic bettors, they'll start them out higher than they would a team like the Lions or Browns who have a lot of pessimistic fans betting on them to lose. They try to anticipate how the bets will come in.

Same goes with establishing point spreads. They'll look at the betting history of each team and try to predict which team will be picked to win and set their betting line accordingly then adjust the point spread as the actual bets start coming in.

I agree with you on this, good explanation.

My question is how are they so good at (example) the over/under? That shouldn't necessarily change depending on betting trends. I've noticed they're usually right
more often than not predicting total points .

I see where they adjust spreads to entice people. Oddsmakers that set these lines have skill, analysis on their side.

 

[RiverDog]

I agree with you on this, good explanation.

My question is how are they so good at (example) the over/under? That shouldn't necessarily change depending on betting trends. I've noticed they're usually right
more often than not predicting total points .

I see where they adjust spreads to entice people. Oddsmakers that set these lines have skill, analysis on their side.

There isn't that much actual skill at knowing X's and O's. It's all in trying to even up the bets. That's all they care about. Bookies will research things like total points from last season for over/under betting, such as the first game on TNF Lions vs. Chiefs, and anticipate that they will have to set their over/under abnormally high because both teams had high scoring offenses last season and that bettors will have the tendency to take the over if they don't set it high enough. But that's just when they set the initial line. They'll adjust it throughout the week as the bets start coming in.

There's a lot of casual betting that goes on. Say I go down to Las Vegas, and just for the hell of it, throw down a $100 on the Seahawks to win the Super Bowl not because it's a smart bet but rather I like the idea of a win-win scenario should they happen to win the Lombardi.

Then there's bettors that will do the exact opposite. I, for example, will often times bet against the Seahawks because if they win, I'm so happy that it takes the pain out of losing $100, and if they lose, I have a nice little consolation prize. I can imagine being a Cleveland Browns fan and bet on them to lose no matter what the point spread is: If those SOB's lose like they always do, at least this time I'll make $100 on them!

It's more about knowing who will be betting and what their habits are than it is knowledge about the actual game. There might be a lot of bandwagoner Cowboy fans that will bet on their team no matter what, in which case you have to compensate for them by widening the point spread to keep the bets even.

 

[Ad Hawk]

What were the lines at this point last season? 5.5 wins and some books were lower.

No, Vegas is not always good at setting accurate lines before or early in the season.

 

[Weadoption]

last year Geno made the pro bowl behind TWO ROOKIE TACKLES.
If those kids make a good jump in year 2, I would think the floor for your season is ya maybe 8-9 barring catastrophic injuries.
Nobody starts two rookie tackles but you survived it. Their play in year 2 is everything imo, to the offense and indirectly helps the D as well for TOP.

 

[AROS]

11-6. Next.

 

[olyfan63]

We had that worst case season during Russell's last year here, going 7-10, with one of the losses being a game Russell gave away to the Bears by playing bonehead hero-ball. This year's team is equal or better at nearly every position group to that 7-10 team, and deeper as well.

We know our offense will be top-10, if Geno stays healthy. The defense is the only big question mark, will we be susceptible to other teams pounding the crap out of the Hawks D with a smash-mouth running game?

The schitt that would have to go wrong to finish 8-9 is totally reaching for something, anything, as an excuse to forecast doom-and-gloom. I can't really see a floor worse than 10-7.

 

[olyfan63]

I would point to the offensive and defensive lines. When the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, they had an average offensive line and elite defensive line, the current Seahawks lines are bottom dwellers. Sure, they have good defensive backfield, and offensive weapons, but really think the Seahawks may get pushed around on both sides of the ball.

The Hawks had a crap OL for SB48, started two rookies, Bowie and Bailey, and it was masked somewhat by Russell's elusiveness. The line was crap in pass-pro, Russell always running for his life, but they were actually good at moving other teams' front 7 in the power-running game, and Marshawn was elite at finding gaps to run through and breaking tackles.

I don't think this year's OL will be getting pushed around. The DL, and Front 7 overall, well, that is TBD. I'm cautiously optimistic they will match up well with other teams

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Just judging from the comments, glad I didn't click it.
Next

 

[SeAhAwKeR4life]

I saw pundits saying SF's "floor" is 11 wins, and that their "ceiling" is 15 wins. Plus with Brock Purdy acknowledged by other experts as the new GOAT, we'll we have no chance against them, according the the "experts" anyway.

SF is invincible, the experts have decreed!

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Anythings possible, but not entirely sure, if the author of the article is to far off. I sense that most have a really good feeling about the draft, but the Seahawks may still need some time to meet expectations.

What exactly are most people's expectations?

Sure there are some super optimistic fans on here, but I'd say most of us still see the Hawks as a playoff contender, and maybe the NFC West Champ if the Niners take the step back everyone seems to think they're going to take.

But IMO the Hawks are a team on the rise, what with two straight huge drafts bringing a much needed influx of young dynamic talent to the roster.

At least we all know one thing, Fade got hired to write for Fieldgulls. Good for him.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

11-6, Divisional Round is my expectations. Not sure I think they're gonna' win the division, but the gap has been closed quite a bit, imo.

 

[Superbowl 48]

What exactly are most people's expectations?

Sure there are some super optimistic fans on here, but I'd say most of us still see the Hawks as a playoff contender, and maybe the NFC West Champ if the Niners take the step back everyone seems to think they're going to take.

But IMO the Hawks are a team on the rise, what with two straight huge drafts bringing a much needed influx of young dynamic talent to the roster.

At least we all know one thing, Fade got hired to write for Fieldgulls. Good for him.

Getting paid to write about sports, has got to be one of the best jobs out there.

 

[Rat]

Clickbait, right?

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

Does anyone see this take as possibly more optimistic now?

 

[RiverDog]

Does anyone see this take as possibly more optimistic now?

I wouldn't call it more optimistic, rather more realistic than what many perceived.

I think I might have posted this in another thread, and if so, I apologize for the redundancy. But here's my expectations for the season:

Week 1 vs. the Rams: W
Week 2 at Detroit: L
Week 3 vs Carolina: W
Week 4 at NY Giants: L
Week 5 Bye
Week 6 at Bengals: L
Week 7 vs. Cards: W
Week 8 vs. Browns: W
Week 9 at Baltimore: L
Week 10 vs. Commanders: W
Week 11 at LA Rams: W
Week 12 vs. Niners: L
Week 13 at Dallas: L
Week 14 at Niners: L
Week 15 vs. Eagles: L
Week 16 at Titans: W
Week 17 vs. Steelers: W
Week 18 at Cards: W

Final record: 9-8. Divisional finish: 2nd in NFC West. Playoffs: Wild card, 7th seed.

I'm still sticking with those predictions, so that would drop my forecast to 8-9 and missing the playoffs.